Filtered library · Archetype
Theme leader · 62 dossiers
Dossiers classified as Theme leader — 62 names, each with its thesis, invalidation trigger and catalyst calendar.
All 62 are dated research with a published kill line — the level named in advance that would prove the call wrong.
All dossiers XMTR Xometry, Inc. fresh MEDIUM Xometry's AI manufacturing thesis requires enterprise adoption to deliver its August 4 guidance before a weekly close below $85. Third-quarter revenue of at least $234 million and adjusted EBITDA of at least $16 million, with the 33–34%… SNX TD SYNNEX Corporation fresh LOW TD SYNNEX's Hyve expansion supports an AI hardware earnings story, tested by revenue above $19.0 billion and adjusted diluted EPS above $4.75 on 2026-09-24. A weekly close below $255 invalidates the September price structure; stronger… AGM Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation fresh MEDIUM Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation's infrastructure lending supports an earnings-led re-rating. The next quarterly report tests whether spread income grows with volume; a weekly close above $240.02 fulfills the price case, while a… APPN Appian Corporation fresh MEDIUM Appian’s AI orchestration re-rating needs Q3 revenue of at least $214 million and cloud subscriptions of at least $133 million to confirm management’s August guidance. A weekly close below $34 or a miss against either revenue floor… CLDT Chatham Lodging Trust fresh MEDIUM Chatham Lodging Trust’s raised earnings outlook depends on sustained Silicon Valley hotel demand. The case resolves if third-quarter results preserve the August 4 guidance and regional outperformance before a weekly close below $12.00. FROG JFrog Ltd. fresh MEDIUM Software-supply-chain-security plus AI-agent "trust layer" narrative keeps re-rating: the analyst cluster now leads price above $100 (UBS Buy $110 Jul 2, Truist Buy $105 Jul 9), confirming the continuation tell flagged in June.… FTNT Fortinet, Inc. fresh MEDIUM Q2 (2026-07-29) resolved up — revenue $2.047B vs ~$1.89B, product +52% YoY, FY26 guide raised to $8.020–8.180B — but price has gone nowhere since: $161.95 on 07-31, $160.01 on 08-14, still 4.9% under the $168.29 high. The 44-analyst mean… GTLB GitLab Inc. fresh MEDIUM GitLab's consumption-pricing story needs coding-agent usage to lift revenue above its September guidance. Fiscal Q3 revenue above $283 million and a paid-consumption run-rate above September's $40 million reference would confirm the case… LMND Lemonade, Inc. MEDIUM The $50 shelf has held six weeks: $53.14 on 2026-09-02, RSI(14) 50.6, three reference closes since 2026-08-21 inside a $0.41 band. The state cadence restarted — Florida car 2026-08-26, Kansas renters 2026-09-01, Missouri car plus… MGNI Magnite, Inc. fresh MEDIUM Magnite's connected-TV growth now has an AI advertising catalyst; a weekly close above $25.92 and reaffirmed 2026 guidance at the next quarterly report would validate the next leg. A weekly close below $21 invalidates the price structure. PCTY Paylocity Holding Corporation MEDIUM Post-print re-rating leg: the 2026-08-04 Q4 FY26 beat ($1.84 adj. EPS vs $1.61 est.) triggered five price-target raises in 48 hours and a $150.42 close on 2026-08-07, +35.5% over three months. The buy is multiple recovery in mid-cap HCM… PLPC Preformed Line Products Company MEDIUM The July rollover read was voided by the 2026-07-29 Q2 print: sales $212.7M vs $193M consensus, EPS $4.49 vs $2.41, and a ~30% one-session repricing to a new all-time closing high of $480.77 (2026-08-11). Grid/AI-power second-order… RVTY Revvity, Inc. fresh MEDIUM Revvity’s AI drug-discovery story requires instrument backlog to convert into positive Life Sciences organic growth. The next quarterly report must show that recovery while preserving August’s full-year growth outlook before a weekly close… SOPH SOPHiA GENETICS SA fresh MEDIUM SOPHiA GENETICS' cloud-genomics expansion thesis requires renewed strength above the $8.92 market high and another revenue-guidance increase at Q3 results, estimated for 2026-11-03. A weekly close below $6.84 invalidates the price thesis;… TEAM Atlassian Corporation MEDIUM The "agentic AI kills seat-based software" de-rating just reversed: Q4 FY26 (2026-08-06) put cloud +31% and $6,606M subscription ARR behind the Rovo/MCP agent story, and the stock gapped 30%+ on 2026-08-07 to close $149.07. The… TWST Twist Bioscience Corporation fresh MEDIUM Synthetic-DNA-as-AI-input narrative went vertical: the failed $70 breakout reclaimed and ran to a $105.47 high, +200%+ YTD with 85% of it since the 2026-05-21 analyst day. Targets now $102-$120 but price sits above the $85.50 consensus and… VST Vistra Corp. MEDIUM Vistra's AI-power scarcity story now depends on PJM's September procurement proceeding and a weekly close above the June resistance shelf near $153. A weekly close below $135.66 invalidates the price-repair case. ESTC Elastic N.V. LOW AI-retrieval-layer narrative accelerating: Q4 FY26 total RPO $1.98B grew 28% YoY against revenue +16%, and the 2026-07-30 OpenAI partnership re-rated the name 56.8% in three months. The 2026-08-27 Q1 FY27 print is the binary — company… SDGR Schrodinger, Inc. fresh LOW Agentic-AI software leg: the 2026-08-05 Bristol Myers Squibb agreement to deploy Bunsen at scale landed with a double beat (Q2 revenue $58.889M vs $47.228M consensus) and a raised drug-discovery guide of $65–75M. ACV grew 27% while… WEAV Weave Communications, Inc. LOW Beaten-down vertical-SaaS front-office platform for healthcare SMBs, down ~36% YTD and basing off the $4.24 low, repositioning around AI-receptionist monetization (TrueLark, 2025). Still a ~17% grower with GAAP losses, so the re-rate is… SHLS Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. fresh LOW Solar/BESS EBOS name re-rated as a 2nd-order AI-datacenter-power play on a record $758M Q1 backlog and the multi-GW ON.energy deal; price reclaimed the $10 pivot but consensus PT sits at spot (~$10.63 vs $10.02), so the confirmed… ADI Analog Devices, Inc. fresh MEDIUM Analog Devices’ AI and industrial growth story supports a recovery thesis, with fourth-quarter delivery as the operating test. Revenue at or above the $4.3 billion guidance midpoint and a daily close above the supplied $444.13 annual high… BE Bloom Energy Corporation fresh MEDIUM Bloom Energy’s AI data-center power thesis now depends on earnings sustaining the September advance after index inclusion. The next quarterly report must preserve its $3.9–$4.2 billion FY2026 revenue outlook and confirm price strength… DOCN DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc. MEDIUM DigitalOcean’s AI cloud recovery needs third-quarter revenue of $304–$307 million, its August 4 guidance, and a weekly close above the former $132 August shelf. A weekly close below the July placement price of $117.54 invalidates the case. FSLR First Solar, Inc. fresh MEDIUM Section 232 supplied a new leg: the 2026-08-06 proclamation sets a $0.38/W minimum import price on modules from 2026-12-04, above the ~$0.36/W FSLR struck on Q2 US bookings. Baird upgraded 2026-08-11 with a target moved to $318 from $205.… HIMX Himax Technologies, Inc. MEDIUM Himax Technologies' AI-sensing re-rating requires a named, shipping smart-glasses product and Q3 revenue meeting its August 6 guidance before a weekly close below $13. The September 11 reclaim of the post-earnings reference close improves… HRI Herc Holdings Inc. MEDIUM Second-order AI/power play: Herc rents the cranes and gensets that build data centers. Peer United Rentals raised FY26 guidance (2026-04-23), confirming an accelerating theme — but the stock sits +71% off its low and drifts into a binary… IMOS ChipMOS TECHNOLOGIES INC. MEDIUM Memory-cycle re-rating in an AI costume just re-accelerated: June 2026 revenue +37.2% YoY and Q2 +28.7% YoY (both records since 2014, reported 2026-07-10) erase the May deceleration scare, and price bought back the ~17% fade to sit ~$68… NXT Nextpower Inc. fresh MEDIUM Falling knife has based and turned: after a -34% unwind from the $163 high to a ~$107 June base, a fresh cluster (Truist initiate Buy $140 07-14, Guggenheim upgrade Buy 07-15) plus a 07-15 surge is re-rating the M&A-drift story. The… S SentinelOne, Inc. fresh MEDIUM SentinelOne's AI-security story has regained market support after September's Cybersecurity rally, despite the August earnings-guidance cut. A weekly close above the $23.84 reference high would complete the price-recovery case; a weekly… TXN Texas Instruments Incorporated MEDIUM Texas Instruments’ analog and data-center recovery needs Q3 revenue to meet its July guidance and a weekly close above $272. A weekly close below $250 or Q3 revenue below $5.65 billion would invalidate the case; the September 11 close of… ZETA Zeta Global Holdings Corp. MEDIUM Palantir Foundry re-platforming now has a management clock — phase one guided complete within 30–40 days of the 2026-07-06 Citi event, landing on the ~2026-08-04 Q2 print. Price reclaimed the $21 shelf that capped the June recovery (+14%… AMPL Amplitude, Inc. fresh LOW Amplitude's AI analytics reacceleration case needs improving customer retention and recovery above the August $14.30 high. A weekly close below $12.60 invalidates the price case; the next quarterly report tests retention against the 103%… ATEN A10 Networks Inc fresh LOW AI-security re-rate off the 2026-06-15 TrojAI deal has stalled: ATEN churning ~$35 below the $37.36 ATH, momentum cooling as Mizuho lifts its target to $34 but stays Neutral — analyst catch-up, not fresh conviction. The 2026-08-05 Q2 print… CAI Caris Life Sciences, Inc. fresh LOW Caris Life Sciences’ molecular-profiling growth supports another revenue-guidance increase at the next quarterly report. Guidance above the 2026-08-05 upper bound of $1.040 billion would confirm the case; a weekly close below $22 would… CCJ Cameco Corporation LOW Nuclear-uranium theme maturing and CCJ's structure has broken twice into improving news: mkt cap $44.79B (06-29) → ~$39.9B (07-25), ~$88, ~35% off the $135.24 high, absorbing a $17.5B federal AP1000 program and NJ's $24B plan. Barclays cut… CDW CDW Corporation fresh LOW Second-order AI-server reseller whose ~37% recovery off the $97 low has stalled: a mid-July push to $144 round-tripped to $133 by 2026-07-17, right in the fairway of the ~$145 consensus target. The re-rate (JPM, MS $170, Citi $145) is… CECO CECO Environmental Corp. fresh LOW 2nd-order AI-power name — Q1 orders +97% YoY and a first-ever >$1B backlog (2026-04-28) feed the datacenter/electrification capex wave, and the closed Thermon merger doubled EBITDA. But price rolled over ~25% off the $101.24 ATH to $75.63,… CEG Constellation Energy Corporation LOW Constellation Energy's nuclear-contract recovery requires additional signed capacity and a weekly close above $290.04. The September 11 close of $284.75 preserves the reclaimed band, but a weekly close below $281 would end the thesis. DDOG Datadog, Inc. fresh LOW June's sell-side upgrade wave has exhausted and the first cut printed — Bernstein to Market Perform (PT $226, 2026-07-06) as the stock rolled over. AI-observability narrative intact but maturing; the $278.71 parabola round-tripped and the… DIOD Diodes Incorporated LOW The AI-server/auto power-content re-rate that carried DIOD to a ~$126 all-time high (June 18) has round-tripped: a double-top, an analyst downgrade, more insider selling and a sector-wide semi selloff pushed it to ~$96 by July 10, through… EXLS ExlService Holdings, Inc. fresh LOW ExlService Holdings’ AI-services re-rating needs renewed revenue confirmation. A daily close above the August reference close of $37.53 and organic growth guidance of at least 13% would validate the recovery case; a daily close below $34… FPS Forgent Power Solutions, Inc. fresh LOW Second secondary in five weeks — ~43.6M shares at $49 on July 2, now including company primary dilution — confirms the recurring-supply pattern and dragged the stock from its $65.56 June-4 ATH back to the offering line. The… GWRE Guidewire Software, Inc. fresh LOW Guidewire Software’s cloud-and-AI re-rating thesis failed its price test when the 2026-09-18 weekly close of $144.29 breached $155. Pohjola’s September 15 PricingCenter selection supports customer expansion, but a replacement recovery case… HURN Huron Consulting Group Inc. LOW AI-disruption discount still unwinding, but the bid has stopped widening: the 2026-08-28 close of $159.84 is below the 2026-08-21 close of $161.64, no analyst has moved a target since 2026-07-29, and Huron has published nothing since the… INTA Intapp, Inc. LOW Intapp’s AI integrations support an existing-client expansion thesis; the next quarterly report tests whether bookings convert into revenue. Confirmation requires revenue above the $160.3 million quarterly guide and cloud ARR growth of at… KVYO Klaviyo, Inc. fresh LOW Klaviyo’s AI-agent expansion still needs attributable revenue, while the September 18 close invalidated its August recovery. A weekly recovery above $17.71 and agent revenue disclosure would be required to establish a new case. MAX MediaAlpha, Inc. fresh LOW MediaAlpha’s insurance-advertising growth has not sustained its price structure: the $10.49 close on 2026-09-18 invalidated the published $12 weekly threshold. Final Q3 revenue below $355 million would also contradict management’s… NXPI NXP Semiconductors N.V. fresh LOW NXP Semiconductors' recovery case requires demand confirmation at October 27 earnings and a subsequent weekly close above UBS's published $270 target. A weekly close below $220 would invalidate the price structure first. ON ON Semiconductor Corporation fresh LOW The AI-power re-rate is unwinding, not consolidating: ON closed $87.37 on 7/17, below the 6/26 Synaptics deal-gap floor, with targets cut twice in three weeks (TD Cowen to $95 on 7/13, Mizuho to $125 on 7/1). Merger-arb supply plus a fixed… ORBS Eightco Holdings Inc. fresh LOW Eightco Holdings' recovery case rests on token assets and repurchases disclosed on 2026-09-17. Higher reported holdings and restored Nasdaq compliance would confirm it; a weekly close below $1.00 would invalidate it. PCOR Procore Technologies, Inc. fresh LOW Procore Technologies' jobsite-AI re-rating failed its $55.26 weekly price test at the September 18, 2026 close of $51.27, despite DroneDeploy's completion. A rebuilt case requires a weekly recovery above $55.26 and financial confirmation… PKOH Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. fresh LOW Park-Ohio's infrastructure equipment story needs backlog growth beyond June's $252 million and retention of August's earnings guidance. The third-quarter report settles that case unless a weekly close below $45 invalidates the price… POWI Power Integrations, Inc. fresh LOW The 800VDC AI-power re-rate has cracked. POWI lost the $74–78 May breakout shelf in a -20% week to $70.45 (2026-07-17) and now sits below the $76.20 average target for the first time since spring. The GaN cohort broke with it — NVTS is… SAIL SailPoint, Inc. fresh LOW Agentic-identity story intact and the post-earnings flush is basing: SAIL clawed from a $13.33 low (6/22) back to $15.68 (7/17), a higher low off the $10.30 bottom. Growth decelerated (ARR +26% vs +30%) and guidance was only affirmed, so… SAP SAP SE LOW SAP SE’s cloud-and-AI recovery thesis requires a weekly close at or above its 2026-08-28 reference close of $221.54 before a weekly close below $200 invalidates it. The 2026-09-11 close of $206.36 has lost the August shelf, while the… TLN Talen Energy Corporation LOW Contracted-floor re-rating has stopped paying: the 2026-08-05 Q2 raised FY26 Adj EBITDA guidance to $2,025–2,225M and PJM's 2028/29 auction cleared >10 GW at the $325/MW-day cap, yet the stock closed $347.71 on 2026-08-07, 22% below the… VEEV Veeva Systems Inc. fresh LOW Veeva Systems’ recovery rests on Vault CRM adoption overcoming Salesforce competition, supported by 16% subscription growth reported on 2026-08-26. A daily close above the September 18 reference high of $306.22 would complete the recovery… VMI Valmont Industries, Inc. LOW Valmont Industries’ utility-growth story supports a recovery case that requires a weekly close above $520 with its July earnings guidance maintained or raised. A weekly close below $470 first invalidates the case; the September 11, 2026… VPG Vishay Precision Group, Inc. fresh LOW The AI-precision re-rate broke at the print: Q2 (2026-08-05) missed on revenue ($83.936M vs $84.646M) and adjusted EPS ($0.04 vs $0.19), Q3 guide midpoint sits below consensus, and the stock gapped -26.95% to $73.78 and has since made… WSC WillScot Holdings Corporation LOW Cyclical modular-space leasing recovery with a small data-center kicker and an activist/M&A floor, but range-bound and digesting: shares drifted to ~$26 under the $31.88 high after the 2026-06-27 Russell growth-index removal. The confirmed… ZBRA Zebra Technologies Corporation fresh LOW Zebra Technologies’ automation re-rating needs Q3 earnings confirmation after the September 18 close weakened to $346.63. The recovery case resolves with a weekly close above the market’s $383.06 high before a weekly close below $330; Q3…