TXN · Texas Instruments Incorporated

Current Thesis

The analog cyclical recovery is still inflecting into an AI-data-center-power re-rate, and TXN remains the mega-cap proxy but the TXN-specific easy money is banked and the setup has shifted from accelerating to maturing. Q1 2026 (reported 2026-04-22): revenue $4.83B, +19% YoY, beating ~$4.52B consensus by >$300M, with a newly broken-out Data Center segment up ~90% YoY and industrial +30%. That print already fired. Since then price has stalled in a ~$308 consolidation (2026-06-04 reference) roughly 7% below the $331.51 ATH, the average analyst PT (~$289) sits below market, and on 2026-06-09 Wells Fargo reiterated Equal-Weight with a $300 target a major bank's number now beneath the tape. The accelerating leg requires a weekly close above $331.51; until then, with no catalyst inside 30 days (next print 2026-07-21), this is a continuation-watch, not a fresh fat pitch.

Bull Case

• Q1 2026 (2026-04-22): EPS $1.68 vs $1.36 est (+24% beat), revenue +19% YoY Analog $3.92B (+22%), Embedded $723M (+12%, op profit +205%).
• Data Center revenue +~90% YoY and industrial +30% YoY on the Q1 call (2026-04-22) AI capex is a direct TXN revenue line, not a hope.
• Q2 2026 guide (issued 2026-04-22): revenue $5.00–5.40B, EPS $1.77–2.05, midpoint above consensus management leaning into the upturn.
• Upgrade cluster: Seaport to Buy / $400 (2026-05-22), BofA reiterate Buy / $370 from $320 (2026-05-26) outlier bulls still well above spot.
• Sector tailwind reaffirmed 2026-06-08: an analyst flagged "secular upside" for Nvidia plus six chip names, keeping the AI-semi bid alive.
• New product 2026-06-09: industry-first 26-cell-count, EIS-enabled battery monitor for EVs and grid energy storage extends analog content into the storage TAM.
• Silicon Labs $7.5B all-cash deal ($231/sh, announced 2026-02-04) cleared HSR (waiting period expired 2026-05-22); close targeted H1 2027 adds embedded wireless connectivity.

Bear Case

• Wells Fargo reiterated Equal-Weight 2026-06-09 with a $300 PT a major bank's target now sits below the ~$308 consolidation zone, and the ~$289 average PT already trails price.
• Backward-looking retail coverage is surfacing (2026-06-10: "how much you'd have made owning TXN over 15 years") a late-cycle attention signal, not early-narrative discovery.
• Price is +51% above the 200-DMA ($203.80) and ~7% under the $331.51 ATH after roughly doubling off the $152.73 52-week low; the crowd has already paid for the recovery.
• ~$280B market cap structurally caps narrative velocity a strong outcome here is +25–40% to the outlier PTs, not a multi-bagger.
• Macro headwind: inflation back above 4% (2026-06-10) with Fed-drift-higher risk pressures rate-sensitive mega-cap multiples and the AI-capex cycle alike.
• Heavy fab capex (Sherman, Lehi) weighs on free cash flow; if the cycle stalls, depreciation compresses margins quickly.
• CFO transition: Julie Knecht effective 2026-08-01 (announced 2026-06-02), succeeding Rafael Lizardi a leadership change mid-upturn.
• No catalyst inside 30 days; the Q1 beat is spent and the tape can chop until the 2026-07-21 print.

Setup & Price Structure

• Reference price ~$308 (2026-06-04); 52-week range $152.73–$331.51 consolidating ~7% below the ATH.
• RSI neutral (~47–52 into early June) neither overbought nor washed out; the range has not resolved in either direction.
• 200-DMA $203.80 (price +51% above); the 20-EMA near $293 is the line beneath the consolidation.
• MACD compressing toward flat coiled but undirected. With Wells Fargo's $300 PT under market and no catalyst, the path of least resistance is sideways.
• The actionable trigger is a weekly close above $331.51 on expanding volume, which would mark a fresh accelerating leg. A weekly close below ~$293 breaks the base.

Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)

• 2026-06-13 → 2026-07-13: no TXN earnings in window the next binary sits just outside it.
• 2026-07-21 (~38 days out): Q2 2026 print guide versus the $5.00–5.40B range and the Data Center growth rate are the tells.
• SLAB merger shareholder vote (~Q2/Q3 2026, est.) a Silicon Labs-side catalyst; the TXN deal already cleared HSR 2026-05-22.
• 2026-08-01: Julie Knecht becomes CFO (announced 2026-06-02).
• Ongoing: analog-peer prints (ADI / MCHP / ON) order trends through the period confirm or break the cycle read before TXN reports.

What Would Change Our Mind

• Bullish confirmation: a weekly close above $331.51 on volume converts the maturing consolidation into a fresh leg and warrants a higher-conviction breakout entry.
• Bearish break: a weekly close below the 20-EMA (~$293), analog peers printing sequential order declines, or a Q2 guide (2026-07-21) below the $5.0B revenue floor would signal the cycle re-rolling stand aside.
• Saturation flip: if backward-looking mainstream/retail coverage accelerates while price stalls under the ATH, treat the theme as saturated for TXN specifically and wait for a cleaner setup rather than chasing.

Correlation Notes

• Moves with the analog/industrial-semi complex (ADI, MCHP, ON, NXP); a single peer's order data tends to re-rate the whole group.
• Carries 2nd-order AI-capex beta to the NVDA/AVGO data-center narrative (reinforced by the 2026-06-08 "secular upside" chip call), but with lower velocity given the mega-cap base and broad analog mix.
• Rate-sensitive: the 2026-06-10 inflation re-acceleration above 4% and a higher Fed path pressure the multiple alongside dividend-grower equities (TXN featured in 2026-05-31 SCHD dividend coverage as a core holding).
• Idiosyncratic variance from the Silicon Labs close (H1 2027) and the CFO handover (2026-08-01) sits on top of the group beta.