Glossary · 37 defined terms
Archetypes, regime labels, conviction tiers. Each definition is referenced by the dossiers and the daily journal. Citable, dated, stable.
Quality balance sheet, secular tailwind, multi-year hold candidate.
Names with durable earnings power and a long runway. Sizing is generous, stop discipline lenient, holding period measured in quarters or years. Earnings beats compound rather than expire.
Mean-reverting earnings, regime-sensitive entry.
Names that win when a specific macro regime turns. Entry is gated on the macro setup, sizing scales with cycle conviction, exit is regime-state dependent rather than price-target dependent.
Highest-conviction name within an active theme cluster.
The cleanest pure-play within an established theme cluster. Sized higher than basket peers, but downgraded the moment the theme transitions to MATURING or SATURATED.
M&A, spin-off, restructuring, regulatory event.
Event-driven names where the catalyst is known and dated. Sizing is event-aware, exits are tied to event resolution rather than price action.
Pre/post-print setup with an explicit binary outcome.
Names whose price gates on a single quarterly release. Entry pre-print only on confirmed bullish setup; auto-exit windows around the print.
High-beta, short-interest-driven; hard sizing cap.
Squeeze-candidates and meme-style basket movers. Hard 1% sizing cap regardless of conviction, auto-trim on RSI > 82, never average down.
Cash-flow durable, low-beta, regime hedge.
Staples, utilities, dividend aristocrats. Used as a regime hedge during RISK-OFF; sized inversely to cyclical exposure.
Cross-asset proxy for a thematic risk (XLE / GLD / TLT / …).
An ETF or single-name macro expression of a thematic view, held to balance portfolio beta rather than for standalone alpha.
Risk-asset tailwind across credit + rates + breakevens.
Buy-thresholds eased, size multiplier 1.0, cash floor 5%. The model bids its strongest-graded names freely.
Mixed signals, no directional conviction.
Default neutral lean. Buy-thresholds neutral, sizing standard, position count capped tighter. Adds only on the strongest-graded setups.
Risk-asset headwind across the rate / credit / breadth complex.
Buy-threshold tightened, size multiplier 0.5, cash floor 30%. Only the strongest-graded names pass; the retail-squeeze archetype is switched off.
A single binary event is gating regime direction.
Used when one near-term event (CPI, NFP, Fed) will resolve regime ambiguity. Position sizing halved across the board until the event resolves.
Inflation expectations rising into a slowing-growth read.
Energy + materials hedges favoured; long-duration assets deprioritised. Cash floor raised; defensive sizing increased.
Recovery from RISK-OFF without full risk-asset confirmation.
A transitional read — partial easing of RISK-OFF tightening. Sizing graduated, buy-threshold loosened in steps.
The model's highest calibrated confidence — reserved for the cleanest setups.
The top tier. Reserved for the cleanest setup × balance sheet × narrative combinations. Sizing leans larger; stop discipline still firm.
Strong setup × narrative × balance-sheet alignment.
Standard target conviction for entry. The bull case is sourced and the invalidation trigger is concrete and near-term checkable.
Setup intact but at least one bull-case bullet is contested.
Probe-only conviction. Smaller sizing, tighter stop, accept higher kill rate.
Partial setup — one of three confirmation factors present.
Watchlist-grade or sub-1% probe only. Often paired with an explicit waiting condition (e.g. higher-low to confirm).
An internal read on each candidate, strongest to weakest, before sizing.
The model grades each candidate on narrative, balance sheet, and setup alignment — strongest to weakest. The strongest grade is reserved for names where all three clear independent thresholds. You mostly see its effect through the conviction tier published on the dossier.
The strongest quality grade — narrative, balance sheet and setup all clear.
Reserved for names where the bull case, the balance sheet, and the setup each clear an independent bar. It maps to HIGH or SUPREME conviction depending on the regime.
A passable read whose case is contested on at least one front.
The balance sheet has unresolved questions, the setup is partial, or the narrative is mature. Maps to LOW or MEDIUM conviction; probe-only sizing.
The one-paragraph bull-case summary on every dossier.
What the bet is, in plain English, anchored in sourced bullets from the bull-case body. Updated each time a dossier is re-analysed; the version date is published.
The explicit kill criterion published with every dossier.
A pre-committed price, news, or event that, if it fires, strips the conviction and marks the thesis broken. Functions as a public commitment, not a soft warning.
Dated events the dossier expects to move the name.
Earnings dates, regulatory deadlines, sector catalysts, FOMC, CPI. Each entry is dated and references its source. The next-30-days slice is shown on the dossier page.
A group of correlated names that move together on shared catalysts.
Themes are treated as primary, not afterthoughts. A name's basket co-movement is read alongside its standalone setup; cluster confirmation can lift a single-name conviction. Examples: quantum-computing, sovereign-compute, retail-squeeze-baskets.
Independent corroboration of a thesis by basket peers moving on the same catalyst.
If the theme leader and at least two basket peers all confirm the same direction on the same headline, the system upgrades signal weight. Cluster failure on the same headline downgrades it.
A confirmation pattern: price prints a low above the prior low on expanding volume.
Used as a waiting condition for retail-squeeze setups: never chase the gap; wait for a higher-low that holds the catalyst base before probing.
The price-structure read: moving averages, RSI, levels, basing pattern, volume.
Moving averages, RSI, basing pattern, volume profile, levels. The dossier's 'Setup & Price Structure' section captures it in plain English.
The continuous price feed of US equity markets.
Shorthand for the live market the system reads each day. orbyd is US-only by design — the model is calibrated on this regulatory + reporting environment.
Every name the model considers each day: held positions, watchlist, and the top-100 momentum screen.
Held positions + watchlist + the top-100 momentum names that pass the liquidity screen. Refreshed every premarket. The breadth keeps narratives from being missed.
The current regime call's mapping to sizing / threshold settings.
Each regime (Risk-on, Choppy, Risk-off, …) maps to a specific set of settings — buy-threshold, size multiplier, max exposure, and cash floor. The journal records the active tier daily.
orbyd's publishing principle: the reasoning, the names, and the record are all public.
Dossiers, regime calls, the names held and circling, archetype/regime classifiers — all published with source links and dated, the day each call is made.
The names orbyd holds now plus the names it's circling — research attributes only.
The held positions and watchlist published as names with conviction, archetype, theme, thesis and a kill trigger, the day each call is made. A live, reasoned book instead of a logo wall published a quarter late.
The public scoreboard: every thesis resolved as played-out or invalidated, dated and scored.
Each thesis ships a falsifiable kill criterion; when it resolves it lands in the ledger as played-out or invalidated, dated, with whether the published trigger fired. Strictly non-monetary — it scores whether each claim held, not how a trade did.
The share of resolved theses that played out (vs were invalidated).
Among theses that have resolved, the fraction marked played-out rather than invalidated. Reported overall and broken out by conviction tier, archetype, and the macro regime in force at resolution.
The forecasting-accuracy score on orbyd's conviction calls (0 perfect, 0.25 coin-flip).
Mean squared error between the probability a conviction tier implies (SUPREME≈0.9 … LOW≈0.5) and the binary outcome. Decomposed (Murphy) into calibration, resolution and uncertainty. Reference: Superforecasters ≈ 0.08, best LLMs ≈ 0.10.
Whether stated conviction matches reality — does SUPREME actually play out far more often than LOW?
A model is calibrated when its conviction tiers play out at the rates they imply. orbyd publishes the gap between claimed and observed play-out rates per tier (the reliability diagram), so confidence is checkable rather than asserted.