Watchlist · live, names only
What the model is reading next.
Updated ·
Refreshed every trading day latest 2026-08-07. Regime RISK-ON (SPY +9.1% over its 200-EMA, VIX 15.81 / calm, breadth 65.3% of names above their 200-EMA). This is a research note names, theses, and the levels we're watching. Not advice, not positions. Per-name prices are current reads via FMP (a US exchange fallback) as of 2026-08-07.
This is the active research bench, built from the live ticker dossiers (status WATCHLIST / HELD with a real thesis). It tracks what we're watching and why the theme, the archetype, the conviction tag, and the level that would invalidate the thesis. It does not disclose positioning.
AI chips & memory
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARM | HELD | Picks & Shovels | $282.57 | Q1 FY27 (2026-07-29) beat, but Q2 royalty growth was guided to ~13% from the 22% delivered, on memory-driven handset weakness. The 2026-08-04 +17.36% snapback to $280.56 lifted price above six of nine published post-print targets and to within 1.7% of the $285.33 consensus average. SoftBank, the controlling holder, reports 2026-08-06. | A daily close below $239 gives back the entire 2026-08-04 advance and loses the $239.06-$241.54 post-print base. Secondary: Nvidia's 2026-08-26 print carrying hyperscaler capex-digestion language, or Q2 FY27 (~2026-10-28) royalty growth landing at or under the ~13% guide. |
| AVGO | MEDIUM | Picks & Shovels | $427.76 | Custom-silicon and AI-networking royalty funded by the VMware software annuity. 2026-08-04's +6.61% to $418.16 reclaimed the 50-day, but the catalyst was Palantir's print and a record S&P close, not Broadcom news. The genuinely new item is Broadcom's ~$30B residual-value backstop on the Anthropic TPU lease vehicle. Q3 FY26 on 2026-09-02 is the binary. | A weekly close below $370 forfeits the July shelf defended at $370.83 (2026-07-17), $370.32 (2026-07-29) and $374.61 intraday (2026-08-03), and the 200-day at $366.52 with it. Nearer: a daily close under $392 unwinds the 2026-08-04 gap. Secondary: Q3 FY26 on 2026-09-02 posting AI revenue under the guided $16.0B or book-to-bill materially below ~2.8x. |
| MRVL | HELD | Picks & Shovels | $218.72 | Custom-silicon ASIC royalty story intact, but the AI-semi theme is mid-correction chips posted their worst month vs software on record (7/17) with money rotating into energy. Buying a falling sector with no confirmed higher low is the trap; wait for the published invalidation level-255 May shelf to hold before re-engaging. | A a daily close that breaches the risk threshold loses the May breakout shelf and rising weekly 20-EMA. Secondary breaks: Broadcom disclosing incremental custom-ASIC share at AWS Trainium or Microsoft MAIA, a Google/Marvell TPU walk-back, or hyperscalers guiding FY27 capex flat-to-down on the late-July prints. |
| MTUM | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $309.32 | The AI-memory leg MTUM rotated into at the May reconstitution has rolled over: SOX -20%+ from its June peak, memory names in a bear market, and the fund closed $302.09 on 2026-07-17, below the $310 shelf that defined the post-reconstitution base. With ~36% in the semi complex and no rebalance until November, this is a falling-knife AI-hardware proxy with a lagged exit. | A weekly close below $296 (loses the mid-July shelf) opens the gap toward the rising 200-day near $270 and confirms the AI-memory leg the fund now expresses is in a full unwind; an Intel miss on 2026-07-23 or a soft Lam Research guide on 2026-07-29 that extends the semi-cap derating seals it. |
| MU | HELD | Picks & Shovels | $877.57 | The 2026-08-03 divergence extended: MU closed $892.67 on 2026-08-04, +21.8% over four sessions, and Counterpoint put Q2 DRAM share at Micron 25% versus SK Hynix 26%. Price remains under a falling 50-day near $958 with no confirmed base; SanDisk's 2026-08-05 print and Micron's 2026-08-10 KeyBanc appearance are the nearest reads. | A weekly close below $737 takes out the 2026-07-29 capitulation low ($739.00 close / $737.88 intraday) from which the four-session rebound to $892.67 was built, leaving no identified cycle low. Secondary: Commerce clearing CXMT DRAM into US-market products, ending the three-supplier structure the ~86% margin guide rests on. |
| SIMO | HELD | Picks & Shovels | $256.12 | Controller-mix decoupling got its first hard datapoint on 2026-08-06 SIMO +8.42% to $267.43 while Western Digital fell 16% and SanDisk 11% on beat-but-guide-light prints then gave most of it back on 08-07 (-4.23% to $256.12, $18.87 off the high, thinnest volume of the run). Six sessions after a beat-and-raise the ADS sits $1.02 above the 07-30 reaction close; the 50-day at… | A weekly close below $235 breaks the floor tested at $235.11 on 2026-07-30 and 2026-08-03 and at $238.51 on 2026-08-06, reopening the unfilled gap toward the $209.68 pre-print close. Secondary: the 50-day at $286.82 left unreclaimed while the complex sells memory beats as it did 2026-08-06. |
| STX | HELD | Picks & Shovels | $812.76 | Maturing AI-storage supercycle with sell-side still chasing: Wells Fargo upgrade to Overweight $1,100 (7/10) and Citi Street-high $1,240 (7/13). But the DRAM ETF is down ~30% and Seagate's Q4 FY26 print ~2026-07-22 is a binary about two trading days out a late, crowded name gated by earnings. | A weekly close below $780 (loses the June breakout base and the low end of raised sell-side targets); a Q4 FY26 guide (~2026-07-22) that walks back nearline pricing or exabyte growth would confirm the theme flipping to saturated. |
| WDC | HELD | Picks & Shovels | $434.30 | The 29% bounce off the 2026-07-28 low stalled: WDC closed $527.22 on 2026-08-03, −3.23% on a day its sector rose 0.58%, back under a rising 50-day at $562.65. Consensus (~$3.69B / $3.31–$3.35) still sits above the company's own $3.65B ±$100M / $3.25 ±$0.15 guide, so the 2026-08-05 print 16.8% implied is the binary. | A daily close below $462 surrenders the 2026-07-28/29 closing floor ($462.04–$463.51) and re-opens the $422.11 spike low. Secondary: the 2026-08-05 fiscal Q4 print landing at or under the $3.65B / $3.25 guide midpoints, or a September quarter not guided up sequentially against Seagate's ~$4.1B bar. |
AI datacenter infrastructure
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DELL | HELD | Picks & Shovels | $453.77 | AI-server order book unchanged since the 2026-05-28 print ($51.3B backlog, ~$60B FY27 AI-server guide) while price added 26.4% in four sessions to a $467.27 close on 2026-08-04 a new high built on cohort beta and Micron-driven sentiment, not Dell disclosure. Supermicro's audited Q4 on 2026-08-11 and Nvidia on 2026-08-26 resolve before Dell's 2026-09-03 call. | A weekly close below $405 surrenders the 2026-07-31 close of $405.37 and drops price under the 50-day near $407, forfeiting the entire four-session advance off the 2026-07-29 close of $369.64. Secondary: ISG operating margin printing below Q1 FY27's 10.5% at the 2026-09-03 call. |
| HPE | HELD | Legacy Pivot | $53.22 | Five straight up sessions took HPE to a $53.22 close on 2026-08-07 with the 2026-08-04 gap floor at $50.24 still untested; Trefis put the five-day move at +19.8% against +5.6% for the S&P 500, so this leg is no longer pure sector beta. Forward P/E 13.79 versus 49.66 trailing. The still-unconfirmed ~2026-09-02 Q3 print against the $11.5–12.1B / $0.88–0.93 guide is the binary. | A daily close below $50.24 fills the 2026-08-04 gap and negates the break-and-extend leg ($48.19 returns price inside the July range). Secondary: the ~2026-09-02 Q3 FY26 print landing revenue beneath the guided $11.5–12.1B, or 2026-08-11 Supermicro and 2026-08-26 NVIDIA passing without HPE holding the gap floor. |
| NTAP | HELD | Legacy Pivot | $189.52 | Record made 2026-08-04 ($190.46 close, $195.70 intraday) has held 2026-08-07 closed $189.52 with no give-back. Second tuck-in in three weeks (JetStream, 2026-08-06, undisclosed). No Q1 FY27 webcast notice as of 2026-08-09, which argues for the 2026-09-02 date over 08-26. Price sits above the $177.25 average target while FY27 is guided ~+8%; the print resolves it. | A weekly close below $164 gives up the July–August base and the rising 50-day average last observed at $164.07 on 2026-08-04; secondary is the Q1 FY27 print (~2026-09-02, not company-confirmed) guiding FY27 revenue under the $7.325B low end or Q1 non-GAAP gross margin below the 69.1% floor. |
| SNX | HELD | 2nd-Order AI | $252.42 | The 2026-08-04 breakout above the July band failed within three sessions SNX closed $252.42 on 2026-08-07, back inside the $235.67–$255.70 range and under the 50-day. The move up came on Arista's print, not company news; Hyve's +117% billings leg stays unconfirmed until ~2026-09-24, and the nearest dated read is Dell on 2026-09-03. | A weekly close below $234 retraces the entire advance off the 2026-06-25 print and loses the $235.67 July base floor. Secondary: Dell guiding ISG materially under the ~75% growth flagged 2026-05-28, at its 2026-09-03 Q2 FY2027 print. |
| XMTR | HELD | 2nd-Order AI | $93.14 | Q2 on 2026-08-04 cleared every self-set number revenue $229.3M (+41%), marketplace +45%, Adj EBITDA $14.1M and the new CEO raised FY2026 growth to 33–34% from 27–28%. Price took three sessions to agree, closing $93.15 on 08-07 back above the $90.65 50-day, still under the $106.08 July high. | A weekly close below $85 forfeits the 2026-06-02 secondary shelf priced at $85.00 and the entire post-print re-rate; secondary condition is Q3 marketplace growth landing under the ~33% guided on 2026-08-04, or the new 33–34% FY2026 frame being cut. |
Crypto exchanges & financials
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COIN | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $153.60 | Thune reversed on 2026-08-03 and put a pre-recess CLARITY floor vote back on the calendar, but no cloture petition had been filed as of 2026-08-04 and Polymarket prices 2026 enactment near 27%. The company-guided stablecoin markdown still stands; Circle's 2026-08-05 print and a possible 2026-08-07 cloture vote resolve both legs inside 72 hours. | A weekly close below $139 losing the 2026-07-31 $139.11 52-week low that the $141.03 low of 2026-08-03 and the $145.60 low of 2026-08-04 held marks the four-session base as failed; secondary, the Senate leaving 2026-08-10 with no cloture petition filed on H.R. 3633. |
| CRCL | LOW | Binary Catalyst | $66.67 | Float-royalty leg is finished; the stock now trades on Arc. Q2 (2026-08-05) printed $73.3B USDC circulation and $701.3M revenue vs $718.6M consensus, but FY26 other-revenue guidance doubled to $310–330M and Arc mainnet targets 2026-09-16 with BlackRock, DTCC and Visa as validators. Structure still broken: $66.67 close 2026-08-07, below the $76.59 50-day. | A weekly close below $58 takes out the $58.66 low of 2026-07-31 and the $59.47 shelf, leaving the $49.90 52-week low as the next marked level; secondarily, Arc mainnet slipping past its 2026-09-16 target with no replacement date given. |
| HOOD | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $93.29 | Event contracts now out-earn crypto ($156M vs $100M in Q2) and private venue marks are re-rating Polymarket in talks above $20B on 8/4 against Kalshi's $22B. HOOD closed higher twice off the $85.30 low to $93.51, but the 50-day $97.28 and 200-day $98.87 stay overhead and 8/7 carries both the CLARITY recess deadline and the CFTC's renewable restraining-order application. | A weekly close below $85 forfeits the shelf defended at $86.21 on 2026-07-30 and $85.30 on 2026-08-03. Secondary breaks: the Senate reaching recess around 8/7 with no CLARITY floor vote and no closing reclaim of $97.28, or the 8/7 SDNY hearing leaving New York's Kalshi suit unrestrained. |
| MSTR | LOW | Retail Squeeze | $100.01 | Preferred-peg repair funded by coin sales and common issuance is the live leg: MSTR closed $97.65 on 2026-08-04, a second gain after the 2026-08-03 disposal 8-K, while STRC sits at $92.53 against a $100 stated amount. The 2026-08-10 weekly 8-K and the ~2026-09-01 Stretch rate are the next tests. | A weekly close below $88 breaks the July shelf (lowest weekly close $91.67 on 2026-07-24) and opens the $81.81 52-week low; secondary confirmation is the ~2026-09-01 Stretch rate printing above 12.00%, or STRC closing back under the $86.52 average of the issuer's first buyback tranche. |
cybersecurity
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OKTA | HELD | Emergent | $148.32 | Identity-security re-rating in its second, sell-side-led leg; the upgrade wave is still building nearly two months post-print Wells Fargo lifted its target to $150 from $100 on 2026-07-20, collapsing the low-end dispersion. Cyber theme ACCELERATING, this leg maturing; open risk is paying up for a stretched 52-week-high tape. | A weekly close below $110 loses the post-earnings breakout shelf and the rising 20-EMA; secondary confirmation would be a cRPO/billings/net-new-seat deceleration at the ~2026-08-26 print that resets the multiple. |
defense-aerospace
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRCY | HELD | Legacy Pivot | $108.64 | Defense-electronics turnaround still re-rating on record bookings and a promised FCF turn, but the stock has given back ~20% from its $128.45 ATH and now chops near the analyst median (~$103) into a binary ~Aug 10-18 Q4/full-year print. Consolidation, not acceleration the move is maturing into the report. | A weekly close below $94 loses the breakout base and rising 50-day shelf underpinning the advance. Secondary: a Q4 FY26 print (~2026-08-10 to 08-18) with free cash flow failing to turn positive or book-to-bill under 1.0, or defense-electronics flipping to saturated as KTOS/AVAV break their July lows. |
Fintech & consumer credit
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAVE | HELD | Dominant Narrative | $317.93 | Beat-and-raise sold hard: $430.16 on 08-05 to $317.93 on 08-07, -26.1% in two sessions on the window's heaviest volume, while four brokers raised targets to $449–$490 on 08-06. Growth intact (FY26 guide up to $725–735M, adj EPS $17.00–17.50); the multiple broke (forward P/E 17.29 from 26.52). Narrative SATURATED, no dated fundamental gate before the Q3 print. | A weekly close below $293 removes the June breakout zone (the $293.90 pre-breakout high, the 06-18 close of $314.44) and leaves the 200-day at $248.39 as the next reference; secondarily, the ~2026-08-26 short-interest report showing the 2,349,330-share base cut without price reclaiming the 50-day at $353.53. |
| SEZL | HELD | Dominant Narrative | $118.02 | Q2 printed +51.7% revenue and a third FY26 guidance raise on 2026-08-06, then the stock lost 33.89% to $118.02 on 08-07 as management dated second-half growth at roughly 30%. The acceleration leg is over; what is left is a de-rated compounder (forward P/E 19.73) with no base under it. | A weekly close below $100 gives up the round-number shelf and puts price into the rising 200-day zone ($91.21 as of 2026-08-04), converting the 2026-08-07 de-rating into a full round-trip. Secondary: the 35% FY2026 revenue-growth guide being trimmed at the Q3 print. |
freight-logistics
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARCB | HELD | Legacy Pivot | $137.76 | The 2026-08-04 bounce failed: ARCB lost the $136 shelf on a 2026-08-06 close of $135.25 and printed a post-print low of $134.75 on 08-07, while three open-market director sales the first of 2026 executed at $138.71–$144.85 on 08-04 and 08-06. Brent's rebound to $83.55 defers the fuel-surcharge unwind. No company checkpoint before the ~2026-10-28 Q3 print. | A weekly close below $134.75 forfeits the post-print base between the 2026-07-29 low of $135.98 and the 2026-08-07 low, and dates the 2026-06-12 high of $176.69 as the top; secondary break if ATA July tonnage (~2026-08-18) prints a third consecutive year-over-year decline. |
| LSTR | HELD | Emergent | $182.99 | Relief bounce off the broker-liability selloff stalled: LSTR closed $183.09 on 2026-08-07 after $181.62 on 08-04, below the 50-day at $205.13 and above a rising 200-day at $166.56. DAT dry van and flatbed have fallen two straight weeks to $2.32 and $2.83/mi; the ~2026-08-11 week-32 prints are the next check and Q3 was left unguided on 2026-07-28. | A weekly close below $167 takes out the 2026-07-30 session low of $167.58 and the rising 200-day at $166.56 together, leaving no defended shelf above the $119.32 52-week low; secondary confirmation would be a third straight weekly decline in DAT dry van and flatbed from $2.32 and $2.83/mi in the ~2026-08-11 reports. |
| RXO | HELD | Dominant Narrative | $21.70 | Freight-cycle recovery intact; sell-side has fully caught up into a $20–35 battleground bears $20 (Goldman 07-16, Susquehanna 07-14), bulls $30–35 (BMO $35 initiation 07-14, Stifel/Truist/Citi $30). Narrative matured from mispriced to consensus; the ~2026-08-05 Q2 print (adj EBITDA guide $27–37M vs $6M Q1) is the binary the whole re-rate discounts. | A weekly close below $24 loses the May–June breakout shelf and consolidation base; secondary breaks are Q2 adjusted EBITDA (~2026-08-05) printing below the $27–37M guide floor, or the RXO Curve spot index rolling over. |
| XPO | HELD | Dominant Narrative | $202.58 | Beat-and-raise LTL margin story the tape only half pays for: after Q2 adjusted OR 79.9% and an at-least-200bps full-year guide, price lost the $199–$201 shelf on 2026-08-03 at $197.01 and reclaimed it 2026-08-07 at $202.58 with no company news attached. July Cass (~08-13) and ATA (~08-18) decide whether the above-6% July tonnage is a demand turn or share transfer. | A weekly close below $196 forfeits the 2026-08-07 reclaim of the $199–$201 shelf and puts price under the 2026-08-03 low close of $197.01, leaving the rising 200-day at $182.59 as the next reference; secondary condition is July Cass (~2026-08-13) and July ATA (~2026-08-18) both printing negative year over year. |
GPU cloud & neoclouds
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APLD | LOW | Legacy Pivot | $29.22 | BTC→AI landlord whose operating build (>1 GW contracted, ~$31B backlog, 175 MW live) has decoupled from an equity that halved from $49.65 to a $25.79 low, now bouncing off the $25.56 April base into a binary FY26 print on 2026-07-27. Morgan Stanley's cautious $36.50 Equal-Weight initiation lands the day before. Stand aside into the print. | A weekly close below $25 loses the $25.56 April base floor and opens the $20 zone; secondary breaks: an ATM reactivation or equity raise disclosed on or after the 2026-07-27 FY26 call, a Polaris Forge lease cancellation, or a CoreWeave counterparty downgrade. |
| CRWV | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $90.67 | Four sessions took CRWV from the 2026-07-29 low of $60.55 to a 2026-08-04 close of $91.90 (+51.1%), stalling just under a declining 50-day $93.13 and 200-day $94.35 on Piper's $151 initiation and a 360 MW Indonesia build while the credit market repriced a $2.6B facility 100–125bp wider on 2026-08-03. The 2026-08-11 Q2 is the binary: consensus $2.56B sits at the top of the… | A daily close below $85.19 hands back the 2026-07-22/23 shelf that the 2026-08-03 reversal bar reclaimed; secondarily, the 2026-08-11 Q2 landing at or under the $2.525B guide midpoint with adjusted operating margin at or below Q1's 1% and the FY26 $12–13B range not reaffirmed. |
| IREN | LOW | Legacy Pivot | $41.23 | Neocloud re-rate has fully round-tripped: $33.62 close 7/17, -42% in 30 days, late-May Microsoft breakout base surrendered. Contracts intact ($9.7B MSFT, prepaid tranches) but Q3 AI revenue was only $17.3M vs a $3.4B ARR ambition, and Nvidia/Meta moving into direct compute sales plus the $800M CEO grant fight have flipped the theme to a live de-rating. | A weekly close below $30 completes the round-trip of the Microsoft-reveal re-rate and puts the spring base in the $20s in play. Secondary breaks: the Anthropic Australian tender awarded entirely to CDC/AirTrunk/NextDC/Stack, or Q4 FY26 AI cloud revenue failing to scale meaningfully above the $17.3M Q3 level. |
Industrial power & grid
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMSC | LOW | Picks & Shovels | $32.77 | Grid/advanced-conductor supplier to data-center and utility power; backlog still ~+40% YoY (~$280M), but the tape broke after the 2026-05-28 beat-and-soft-guide and a late-June Russell removal piled on passive selling. Below the lost ~$40 shelf near the early-July ~$35 area with the theme matured to a value-trap shape stand aside until it bases into the ~Aug 5 Q1 print. | A weekly close below $33 confirms the break of the ~$34.50 early-July shelf and opens the declining 200-DMA / $25.28 52-week-low path; further confirmed if the ~Aug 5 Q1 print shows 12-month backlog contracting from ~$280M or the grid-power theme flips to saturated. |
| ATEX | HELD | Emergent | $99.26 | The 2026-08-04 spectrum re-rating gap has largely round-tripped: $106.35 close, then $99.41, $100.32 and $99.26 through 2026-08-07, heaviest volume on the down day. The 1.0M-share dilution vote passed on 2026-08-04; the 2026-08-11 Q1 print, first disclosure since 2026-06-10, is the binary left. | secondary, the 2026-08-11 print passing with no June-quarter spectrum sale agreement disclosed and no use of the $226.7M repurchase authorisation. |
m-and-a-special-situations
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IRDM | HELD | Binary Catalyst | $49.93 | Deal-arb discount narrowed to 7.5%: RKLB closed $82.83 on 2026-08-07, $15.33 inside the collar's flat band, so the package still marks $54.00 against IRDM's $49.93. Forty days post-announcement there is still no Form S-4, no FCC docket and no disclosed HSR expiry. Rocket Lab's 2026-08-10 print is the next dated input. | A weekly close below $43.50, beneath the ~$43.52 undisturbed pre-deal reference implied by the disclosed 24.08% premium to $54.00, prices the merger below standalone Iridium; secondary condition is no Rocket Lab Form S-4 on the SEC file by the Q3 2026 reporting cycle. |
managed-care-health-services
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNC | HELD | Binary Catalyst | $65.77 | Post-print recovery extended: $65.77 close on 2026-08-07 (+2.45%), above the 20-day and 50-day levels marked on 08-04, with the $69.36 52-week high in view. Two dated events inside four sessions CMS's 3:00pm EDT 2026-08-12 PY2027 rate lock (HealthCare.gov states only; SBE states run to 10-15) and the 08-13 $500M par redemption. Theme still SATURATED: eight post-print target… | A weekly close below $63 undoes the 50-day zone reclaimed 2026-08-03 and ends the post-print higher-low sequence; a weekly close below $56 also loses the July shelf. Secondarily, 2026-08-12 passing with the 2027 rate position unchanged, or a Q3 print (~2026-10-27, est.) trimming the more-than-$4.80 FY guide. |
| HNGE | HELD | Dominant Narrative | $89.33 | Digital-MSK profitability re-rate broke out in May and was pushed into open price discovery by the 2026-06-09 mid-quarter raise (Q2 to $200–202M, +45%; FY26 to $818–824M). But nine sell-side target hikes in two weeks plus accelerating insider selling mark a late, distribution-prone phase, with no company catalyst until the ~2026-08-04 Q2 print. | A weekly close below $58 forfeits the June breakout above the $62.18 prior ATH and drops the tape back into its nine-month range; secondary breaks are the digital-MSK theme rolling to SATURATED or the ~2026-08-04 Q2 print landing under the raised $200–202M revenue floor. |
| HUM | HELD | Dominant Narrative | $385.00 | Post-print floor held: the 2026-08-05 undercut to $353.69 closed green on CVS's Aetna guide raise, and 2026-08-07 closed $385.00 (+4.84%), back above the 50-day of $374.23 and the highest close since 07-28. Morgan Stanley's 08-05 upgrade retired the $249 bear target, but the ≥3% 2028 MA margin claim stays unquantified for 2027 and no company-dated financial event is… | A daily close below $353 takes out the 2026-08-05 low of $353.69 and the 2026-07-29 print-day low of $355.81, making the reclaim a failed reversal; a weekly close below $327 unwinds the leg off the 2026-06-03 base close of $327.54. Secondary: the ~October 2026 CMS Star Ratings leaving 4-star-plus enrollment near the 20% of the 2026 ratings. |
| OSCR | HELD | Binary Catalyst | $27.90 | The August 6 binary resolved on the numbers and broke on the tape: EPS $1.10 vs $0.49, guidance raised $250M, stock closed $26.54 from $30.11 and $27.90 on August 7. What is left to buy is a post-print reset into the September 16 Investor Day and the ~September 30 subsidy vehicle, against a full-year guide that sits below the half-year result. Theme reads SATURATED. | A weekly close below $26.50 confirms the August 6 gap-down as distribution it loses the $26.54 post-print reaction close and the $26.50 median target. Secondary: the ~September 30 appropriations vehicle passing with no enhanced premium tax credit extension attached. |
Medtech & diagnostics
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|
Mega-cap AI platforms
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| META | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $592.10 | Capex-discipline leg died at the 2026-07-29 print; the replacement is Meta Compute one hire, one call quote, still no signed customer. The two-session rebound to $587.94 (2026-08-04) stalled under the 50-day on lighter volume, and Oakland jury selection 2026-08-12 is the near binary. | A weekly close below $556 erases the post-print rebound off the 2026-07-30 low at $524.49 and re-exposes the $520.26 52-week low; secondary: 2026-08-18 opening statements trending toward an adverse liability finding, or the reported $10B Anthropic lease lapsing with no contracted compute revenue at the 2026-10-28 Q3 print. |
| PLTR | MEDIUM | Dominant Narrative | $172.01 | US commercial re-acceleration to +149% YoY broke the 2026 de-rating: PLTR gapped +29.45% to $162.66 on 2026-08-04, reclaiming the $152.54 200-day and leaving $126.97–$143.28 unfilled. The fundamental case improved and the entry structure got worse the leg now rests on a one-session gap with no base under it. | A daily close below $143 re-enters the unfilled 2026-08-03/04 gap ($126.97–$143.28) and points back at the $131.45 July shelf; secondary: US commercial growth printing below +120% YoY at the Q3 report against the at-least-+134% FY26 path guided 2026-08-03. |
| TSLA | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $328.58 | Terafab (2026-08-06) put a number on the split: $16.8B first phase, and Musk's approximate guess allocates ~25% of output to Tesla Optimus versus ~75% to SpaceX the listed entity co-funds compute it mostly does not receive. Energy is the leg still compounding (Q2 storage 13.5 GWh, +41% YoY; Megapack 3 line live 08-06), while Germany's 367 July registrations (-66.9%) put Q3… | A weekly close below $297 forfeits the July and 52-week low at $297.38, which has no 2026 shelf beneath it; secondary confirmation is the ACEA July aggregate (~2026-08-20) printing an EU-wide Tesla decline consistent with Germany's -66.9%, or August ending with no disclosed Optimus unit count from the Fremont line. |
Networking & optical
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAOI | LOW | Picks & Shovels | $135.63 | Q2 delivered into the 2026-08-04 FCC policy gap: revenue $191.9M (+86% YoY), first non-GAAP profit at $0.06 vs $0.01 consensus, capacity sold out through mid-2027. But the Q3 EPS guide of $0.11–$0.26 tops out under the $0.28 consensus, Needham cut its target to $190, and the FCC measure still has no docket or effective date. | A daily close below $110 fills the 2026-08-04 policy gap prior close $110.21, open $128.51 and unwinds the re-rating; secondary conditions are Q3 revenue landing below the $255M guide floor, or 2026 ending with no Federal Register entry and no effective date for the FCC transceiver import measure. |
| LITE | LOW | Picks & Shovels | $890.17 | Two legs now: contractual indium phosphide supply ($87M reserved to 2031-12-31, agreed 2026-07-29) and a draft FCC ban on new Chinese transceiver models (Reuters, 2026-08-04). AAOI's 2026-08-06 print and $255–290M Q3 guide confirmed cohort demand and carried LITE +6.15% on 08-07. The 2026-08-11 FQ4 print is the binary, with consensus ~$1.01B / $3.02 sitting at the ceiling… | A weekly close below $779 gives back the entire 2026-08-04 policy repricing and returns price beneath the 50-day reclaimed that session; secondary is the 2026-08-11 FQ4 print landing inside the $960M–$1.01B guide with no FQ1 FY27 outlook above the Street's ~$1.01B / $3.02 bar. |
Nuclear & uranium
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCJ | LOW | 2nd-Order AI | $97.39 | Nuclear-uranium theme MATURING and CCJ's structure has broken twice into improving news: mkt cap $44.79B (06-29) → ~$39.9B (07-25), ~$88, ~35% off the $135.24 high, absorbing a $17.5B federal AP1000 program and NJ's $24B plan. Barclays cut to Equal-Weight, PT $104 (07-16). Q2 print 2026-07-31 (EPS est $0.26, −49% YoY) is the binary; no setup until a higher-low reclaim of ~$104. | A weekly close below $85 turns the twice-broken structure into a trend, losing the July shelf and opening the $68.96 base; confirmed fundamentally by a Q2 delivery guide cut below 29–32M lb or a realized-price guide under $85/lb on the ~2026-07-31 print. A failed reclaim at ~$104 on thin volume marks a third lower high. |
| CEG | LOW | 2nd-Order AI | $269.89 | Uncontracted nuclear baseload repriced by AI load, with the bid not confirming: CEG fell 2.36% to $267.25 on 2026-08-04 while the S&P 500 closed at a record 7,737 (+1.79%). No new large-load offtake since 2026-06-23. The 2026-08-06 Q2 print consensus $2.24 EPS on $7.51B revenue is the binary. | A weekly close below $251 forfeits the $251.33–$255.72 July base and re-opens the 2026-07-01 low of $228.63. Secondary: the 2026-08-06 call passing with no new large-load counterparty named, or an FY-2026 adjusted-EPS band moved beneath $11.00. |
| NNE | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $18.85 | Nuclear-microreactor narrative has stopped converting news into demand: a Truist Hold/$22 initiation (7/14) and a Virginia consortium announcement (7/17) landed inside four sessions and NNE still printed a fresh 52-week low at $15.78 (7/16), losing the prior $18.04 floor. Broken structure, $400M ATM armed against a ~$844M cap, first KRONOS revenue ~FY2030. Stand aside until… | A weekly close below $15.78 confirms the fresh 52-week low as a breakdown rather than a washout and opens undiscovered downside; secondarily, any 424B or 8-K disclosing ATM share sales into a bounce confirms dilution is capping every rally. |
| OKLO | LOW | Binary Catalyst | $48.42 | Three straight cohort-driven sessions carried OKLO from the 2026-07-29 close of $36.84 to $43.33 on 2026-08-04, with no Oklo release behind any of them. The 2026-08-07 Q2 call is the binary. | A daily close below $38.83 hands back the entire three-session recovery off the 2026-07-29 low and returns the $36.61 52-week low to the tape; secondary break if the 2026-08-07 Q2 call passes with no dated Groves first-criticality schedule. |
| SMR | LOW | Binary Catalyst | $9.83 | Second up-day into tonight's print with nothing new disclosed: SMR closed $9.49 on 2026-08-04 (+5.33%), 25% above the 2026-07-29 base and still under a falling $9.90 50-day. Q2 consensus spans $1.0M (Zacks) to $8.80M (MarketBeat) on a $565K Q1 base; the only live asset is an unsigned end-2026 TVA PPA, and the 2026-08-05 call is the binary. | A daily close below $7.59 gives back the entire 2026-07-29 to 2026-08-04 advance and re-opens the $7.21 52-week low into fresh discovery; secondary: the 2026-08-05 call and the ~2026-08-14 10-Q passing with no dated, binding TVA power purchase agreement milestone. |
| UUUU | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $14.14 | Q2 (2026-08-05) missed both lines and rare earths contributed roughly $0.1M of $25.1M revenue, yet the tape made a higher low and closed 08-06 at $12.90, best since 07-14. The mine-to-magnet story now rests on the 2026-08-12 ASM scheme vote rather than on reported numbers. | A daily close below $11.80 loses the 2026-08-06 post-print reversal low and puts the 2026-07-29 close of $10.74 back in play. Secondary: the ASM share scheme failing the 2026-08-12 vote, or the 2026-08-18 court hearing adjourning implementation past 2026-08-31. |
| VST | LOW | 2nd-Order AI | $140.59 | Peers raised 2026 guidance twice this week (TLN 08-05, CEG 08-06) and the complex still de-rated; VST fell 8.15% on 08-04 alongside NRG's -15.48% earnings break and closed 08-06 at $141.38, under the 07-29 flush low of $142.81. The 08-07 Q2 print is the binary and also the weekly close. | A weekly close below $132.66 takes out the May low and the 52-week floor, leaving no defended reference level beneath the tape; secondarily, an 2026-08-07 print that only reaffirms the $6.8–7.6B FY26 EBITDA range leaves nothing company-dated before the PJM backstop window opens 2026-09-30. |
Quantum computing
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IONQ | LOW | Retail Squeeze | $44.43 | Broken gov-capital quantum leg, now publicly capitulated: seven-plus down weeks, an inverse-ETF complex up to +108%, and Cramer warning it off air on 2026-07-23. Washed out but not based, heading into a binary Q2 print (est. 2026-08-05 to 08-12) that referees the disputed Pentagon-revenue composition. No edge in a fresh long at current levels. | A weekly close below $36 confirms the breakdown extends toward the $30 shelf and ends the base-building case; a reclaim of $44 on volume is the first sign the leg is repairable. Secondary: a Q2 print (est. 2026-08-05 to 08-12) with revenue under the $65M guide low or an FY cut from $260–270M. |
| QBTS | LOW | Retail Squeeze | $20.73 | Two unpriced agreements in six sessions AT&T 07-27, Nasdaq Verafin 08-03 carried QBTS back over the AT&T spike high on half the volume, but it still sits under a 50-day at $22.53. The 2026-08-06 pre-open print against a $4.03M consensus cut 34.95% in 90 days is where the agreements get a dollar value or stay press releases. IonQ prints 08-05 after the close. | A daily close below $17.84 breaks the higher-low sequence built off the 2026-07-29 low at $16.18 and returns price to the pre-AT&T $16.21 shelf. Secondary: the 2026-08-06 report passing with no dollar value or RPO attribution for the AT&T and Nasdaq Verafin agreements. |
| QUBT | LOW | Retail Squeeze | $9.18 | Sector bid extended a second session on 2026-08-04 QUBT $9.23, +26.4% from the 2026-07-29 close of $7.30 with no company news since 07-27 but it was again the smallest gainer in its group and still sits under a $9.51 50-day line. The 2026-08-10 Q2 print, against $4.7M / $(0.12) estimates with 32.27% of float short, is the binary. | A daily close below $8.22 forfeits the eleven-session band top reclaimed on 2026-08-03 and returns the stock to the $7.30–$8.22 range; secondarily, a 2026-08-10 Q2 print with gross profit still negative on a revenue base above Q1's $3.7M, or no order book disclosed that bridges toward the $41.24M FY2026 consensus. |
| RGTI | LOW | Retail Squeeze | $17.94 | Quantum pure-play basket is in outright hype-cycle deflation: RGTI ~$14.19 (2026-07-17), -27% MoM, and the $14 shelf that held the May CHIPS-stake gap and the June executive-order pop has broken. Inverse quantum ETFs printing +108% and the Quantinuum IPO landing into the tape mark late-cycle supply. No company binary until the Q2 print ~2026-08-10. Avoid fresh entries. | A weekly close below $12.53 takes out the 52-week low and confirms the quantum pure-play theme has gone from saturated to dead, with no bid until a company-specific contract event; corroborating tells would be an ATM-issuance 8-K filed into any bounce, or the ~2026-08-10 Q2 print passing without a named Fortune-500 Cepheus customer. |
Semi foundry & equipment
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEHR | LOW | Picks & Shovels | $103.07 | Order cadence is intact 2026-06-17, 07-09, 08-04 but the 2026-08-04 spike to $109.89 has bled to $103.07 (2026-08-07 close) with no company disclosure since. The second distinct hyperscaler AI-ASIC order that the $130–150M FY2027 guide needs is still unsaid; 2026-08-20 Needham and 2026-08-26 Jefferies are the next dated venues for it. | A weekly close below $92 fills the 2026-08-04 follow-on-order gap and gives back the 50-day; secondarily, the 2026-08-20 Needham and 2026-08-26 Jefferies appearances passing with no second distinct hyperscaler AI-ASIC order disclosed, or a discounted common-stock takedown priced off the 2026-07-27 shelf. |
| ASML | MEDIUM | Picks & Shovels | $1740.99 | Three higher lows since the 2026-07-29 China-substitution break, and the domestic SSA800 now benchmarks as a 2008-generation ASML tool but the 2026-08-04 close of $1,711.89 is still under a 20-day of $1,727.29 and a 50-day of $1,755.37, ASML lagged the SOXX's best four days since March 2020, and no ASML-dated event lands before the 2026-10-14 Q3 print. | A weekly close below $1,582 surrenders the 2026-08-03 higher low and puts the 2026-07-29 reaction low of $1,530.64 back in play; secondary confirmation would be China's revenue share printing at or below its 16% H1 level at the 2026-10-14 Q3 report, against the CFO's ~20% full-year 2026 guide. |
| UMC | HELD | Legacy Pivot | $18.72 | Silicon-photonics pivot re-rated the ADR ~3x, but the July blowoff to $28.96 round-tripped -26% to $21.25 in days while sell-side finally upgraded (Macquarie Outperform 2026-07-14) late-stage distribution behaviour. The 2026-07-29 Q2 print is now the binary that decides whether the leg resumes or the re-rate unwinds. | A weekly close below $19.00 takes out the June breakout shelf and confirms the $28.96 July high as the cycle top; secondarily, a Q2 print on 2026-07-29 that meets revenue but compresses gross margin, showing the mature-node price war reasserting under an AI headline. |
Space economy
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASTS | LOW | Retail Squeeze | $71.94 | Reclaim leg running straight into the binary: 2026-08-03 +8% to $63.52 on Meta's WhatsApp-over-BlueBird workshop, 2026-08-04 +10.69% to $70.31 into the launch. BlueBirds 11-13 flew 2026-08-05; the 2026-08-10 Q2 call is the test $14.7M booked in Q1 against a $150-200M FY26 guide, 13 satellites against ~45 targeted. | A weekly close below $62 erases the 2026-08-03/04 advance and the 20-day reclaim, leaving the 2026-08-03 reversal low of $55.74 as the next reference; secondary: the $150.0M-$200.0M FY26 range cut or withdrawn on the 2026-08-10 call. |
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How To Read This Bench
- Conviction / status is the engine's current tag, not a recommendation. LOW = interesting but the setup isn't here yet; HELD = on the active research bench as a continuation idea.
- Archetype is the playbook the dossier engine assigns (Dominant Narrative, Picks & Shovels, 2nd-Order AI, Legacy Pivot, Binary Catalyst, Retail Squeeze, Emergent).
- "Watching for" is the concrete public level or event that confirms the entry or invalidates the thesis analyst price targets, technical bases, catalyst dates. Never positioning.
Research only. No positions, sizes, entries, stops, or P&L are disclosed. Per-name prices are reads via FMP (a US exchange fallback) as of 2026-08-07; theses and levels are drawn from the live ticker dossiers.