Under research · live, names only
What the model is reading next.
Updated ·
Market context as of 2026-09-18: regime RISK-OFF (SPY +5.8% over its 200-EMA, VIX 17.71 / calm, breadth 37.0% of names above their 200-EMA).
Every name carrying a live thesis, grouped by the theme it sits in, with the archetype, the conviction tier and the level that would end it. Not a shortlist and not a ranking — research only: no positions, no sizes, nothing here to act on. Per-name prices show the latest available quotes.
AI chips & memory
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | HELD | Picks & Shovels | $559.82 | Advanced Micro Devices’ Helios story depends on OpenAI bringing the platform online in the fourth quarter of 2026. Confirmed operation would settle the deployment case; a weekly close below $456 or activation postponed beyond that quarter would invalidate it. | A weekly close below $456 invalidates the September recovery by undercutting the 2026-09-03 market close of $456.16; independently, AMD or OpenAI confirming activation after Q4 2026, or no activation during that quarter, breaks the deployment timetable. |
| MRVL | HELD | Picks & Shovels | $244.25 | Custom-silicon ASIC royalty story intact, but the AI-semi theme is mid-correction — chips posted their worst month vs software on record (7/17) with money rotating into energy. Buying a falling sector with no confirmed higher low is the trap; the setup needs the published invalidation level-255 May shelf to hold before re-engaging. | A a daily close that breaches the risk threshold loses the May breakout shelf and rising weekly 20-EMA. Secondary breaks: Broadcom disclosing incremental custom-ASIC share at AWS Trainium or Microsoft MAIA, a Google/Marvell TPU walk-back, or hyperscalers guiding FY27 capex flat-to-down on the late-July prints. |
| MU | HELD | Picks & Shovels | $1015.80 | Micron Technology's contracted memory revenue supports an earnings-durability thesis tested on 2026-09-30 against June's $50.0 billion ±$1.0 billion revenue guidance and an 86% adjusted gross-margin benchmark. A weekly close below $958 invalidates the rebound before confirmation. | A weekly close below $958 breaks the rebound threshold published on 2026-09-10. Secondary failure: September 30 revenue below June's $50.0 billion ±$1.0 billion guidance range or adjusted gross margin below 86%. |
| SIMO | HELD | Picks & Shovels | $272.11 | Silicon Motion's enterprise-storage expansion needs third-quarter 2026 revenue of at least $519 million to validate the recovery before a daily close below the published invalidation level breaks it. September 15 supply and customer-ramp commentary supports the story, but reported sales settle it. | A daily close below the published invalidation level breaks the recovery structure beneath the August 13, 2026 shelf at $238.51 and September 3 session low near $231.51. Reported third-quarter 2026 revenue below management's July 30 guidance floor of $519 million independently defeats the operating case. |
| SNDK | HELD | Picks & Shovels | $1791.82 | Sandisk’s contracted-revenue story has regained its post-Investor Day price level, leaving fiscal Q1 2027 delivery as the unresolved test. Revenue of at least $10.3 billion and non-GAAP gross margin of at least 83% would complete the case before a weekly close below $1400 invalidates it. | A weekly close below $1400 ends the August recovery thesis, retaining the research threshold published on 2026-08-30; fiscal Q1 2027 revenue below $10.3 billion or non-GAAP gross margin below 83% separately breaks the operating case. |
| STX | HELD | Picks & Shovels | $858.79 | Maturing AI-storage supercycle with sell-side still chasing: Wells Fargo upgrade to Overweight $1,100 (7/10) and Citi Street-high $1,240 (7/13). But the DRAM ETF is down ~30% and Seagate's Q4 FY26 print ~2026-07-22 is a binary about two trading days out — a late, crowded name gated by earnings. | A weekly close below $780 (loses the June breakout base and the low end of raised sell-side targets); a Q4 FY26 guide (~2026-07-22) that walks back nearline pricing or exabyte growth would confirm the theme flipping to saturated. |
| WDC | HELD | Picks & Shovels | $441.36 | The 29% bounce off the 2026-07-28 low stalled: WDC closed $527.22 on 2026-08-03, −3.23% on a day its sector rose 0.58%, back under a rising 50-day at $562.65. Consensus (~$3.69B / $3.31–$3.35) still sits above the company's own $3.65B ±$100M / $3.25 ±$0.15 guide, so the 2026-08-05 print — 16.8% implied — is the binary. | A daily close below $462 surrenders the 2026-07-28/29 closing floor ($462.04–$463.51) and re-opens the $422.11 spike low. Secondary: the 2026-08-05 fiscal Q4 print landing at or under the $3.65B / $3.25 guide midpoints, or a September quarter not guided up sequentially against Seagate's ~$4.1B bar. |
AI datacenter infrastructure
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLDT | MEDIUM | 2nd-Order AI | $12.98 | Chatham Lodging Trust’s raised earnings outlook depends on sustained Silicon Valley hotel demand. The case resolves if third-quarter results preserve the August 4 guidance and regional outperformance before a weekly close below $12.00. | A weekly close below $12.00 invalidates the continuation thesis; a reduction of FY2026 adjusted FFO guidance below $1.28 per share or RevPAR growth guidance below 1.5% would separately break the operating case. |
| DELL | HELD | Picks & Shovels | $569.00 | Dell Technologies’ AI-server thesis requires roughly $19 billion of next-quarter revenue and infrastructure operating margin of at least 15.0%. The next quarterly results settle that case; September 21, 2026 index inclusion does not resolve the delivery or margin test. | A weekly close below $456 breaks the pre-results structure beneath the August 31, 2026 close of $456.01. A reduction in the roughly $19 billion next-quarter AI-server revenue outlook, a reported shortfall, or ISG operating margin below 15.0% independently defeats the operating thesis. |
| HPE | HELD | Legacy Pivot | $60.74 | Hewlett Packard Enterprise's AI and networking earnings transition supports a repricing thesis that requires intact growth guidance and the first weekly close above $54.44 after the 2026-09-30 Investor Day. A weekly close below $50 invalidates the price thesis. | A weekly close below $50 invalidates the earnings-repricing thesis; a reduction in management's fiscal 2027 revenue-growth framework of 13–17%, announced on 2026-09-02, separately breaks the fundamental premise. |
| LMND | MEDIUM | 2nd-Order AI | $47.09 | The $50 shelf has held six weeks: $53.14 on 2026-09-02, RSI(14) 50.6, three reference closes since 2026-08-21 inside a $0.41 band. The state cadence restarted — Florida car 2026-08-26, Kansas renters 2026-09-01, Missouri car plus Autonomous Car 2026-09-02 — but the AI-underwriting margin claim stays undated until the ~2026-10-28 Q3 print, leaving a maturing narrative with… | A weekly close below $50 breaks the shelf that has held since the 2026-07-29 print and leaves no visible structure until the spring lows; secondarily, a Q3 report (~2026-10-28, est.) that raises FY26 adjusted-EBITDA loss guidance above $47-51M or moves breakeven language into 2027. |
| NTAP | HELD | Legacy Pivot | $197.79 | NetApp's AI storage recovery requires delivery of September guidance before a weekly close below $164 breaks the thesis. Fiscal-Q2 revenue of at least $2.025 billion and non-GAAP gross margin of at least 67.0%, with the annual revenue outlook issued on 2026-09-02 maintained, would confirm the case. | A weekly close below $164 breaks the recovery thesis; fiscal-Q2 revenue below $2.025 billion, non-GAAP gross margin below 67.0%, or a reduction to the annual revenue outlook issued on 2026-09-02 independently invalidates the operating case. |
| SMCI | LOW | Retail Squeeze | $39.09 | Dilution leg has broken the story: the $7B raise cleared at $27.50 on June 11 and spot is $24.18, with a live $2B ATM as forward supply. DDR contract prices +32% QoQ crush a business guiding 8.2–8.4% gross margin. Falling knife under all major averages into the Aug 11 FY26 print — the setup does not clear until it bases. | A weekly close below $23 confirms the post-dilution breakdown extending toward the $19.48 52-week low; failure to reclaim the $27.50 offering price, or Q4 gross margin at or under the 8.2–8.4% guide on 2026-08-11, reinforces the value-trap read. |
| SNX | HELD | 2nd-Order AI | $266.16 | TD SYNNEX's Hyve expansion supports an AI hardware earnings story, tested by revenue above $19.0 billion and adjusted diluted EPS above $4.75 on 2026-09-24. A weekly close below $255 invalidates the September price structure; stronger prices have not yet supplied earnings confirmation. | A weekly close below $255 invalidates the September price structure. Separately, fiscal Q3 adjusted diluted EPS below management's $4.25 guidance floor in the 2026-09-24 results breaks the earnings-transmission thesis. |
| SPXC | MEDIUM | Picks & Shovels | $181.77 | Q2 beat-and-raise on 2026-07-30 was the strongest print of the cycle — HVAC backlog $919M (+59% organic), 2026 data-center revenue set at $430M, capacity target lifted to $1.1B from $750M — yet the 2026-08-14 close of $217.32 sits 11.8% under the 52-week high with RSI 49. Fundamentals accelerating, price paying less for each upgrade; no company catalyst until late October. | A weekly close below $199 unwinds the entire 2026-07-30 beat-and-raise reaction (that session's $199.30 regular-session close was the pre-guidance mark); secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-10-29, est.) showing HVAC backlog under $919M or trimming the $430M 2026 data-center revenue figure. |
| TWST | MEDIUM | 2nd-Order AI | $166.99 | Synthetic-DNA-as-AI-input narrative went vertical: the failed $70 breakout reclaimed and ran to a $105.47 high, +200%+ YTD with 85% of it since the 2026-05-21 analyst day. Targets now $102-$120 but price sits above the $85.50 consensus and Evercore stepped aside on valuation. The 2026-08-03 Q3 print is the binary that decides whether AI orders show up in the total revenue line. | A weekly close below $80 — the old all-time-high ceiling that became support on the late-June breakout — voids the AI-order re-rating leg. Secondary: the 2026-08-03 Q3 FY26 print showing total revenue growth still stuck near +19% with no inflection from AI accounts. |
| U | MEDIUM | Legacy Pivot | $41.40 | Unity Software’s advertising turnaround needs Q3 Strategic Grow revenue of at least $380 million and its promised first GAAP-profitable quarter. Those tests come from management’s 2026-08-06 outlook; a weekly close below $36 would invalidate the market thesis before confirmation. | A weekly close below $36 invalidates the published turnaround structure. Independently, Q3 2026 Strategic Grow revenue below management’s $380 million guidance floor or another GAAP loss breaks the operating case. |
| XMTR | HELD | 2nd-Order AI | $97.18 | Xometry's AI manufacturing thesis requires enterprise adoption to deliver its August 4 guidance before a weekly close below $85. Third-quarter revenue of at least $234 million and adjusted EBITDA of at least $16 million, with the 33–34% full-year revenue-growth outlook maintained, would confirm the case. | A weekly close below $85 breaks the June 2, 2026 public-offering reference; third-quarter revenue below $234 million, adjusted EBITDA below $16 million or a reduction in the August 4 full-year revenue-growth outlook also rejects the operating case. |
AI enterprise software
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APPN | MEDIUM | 2nd-Order AI | $37.49 | Appian’s AI orchestration re-rating needs Q3 revenue of at least $214 million and cloud subscriptions of at least $133 million to confirm management’s August guidance. A weekly close below $34 or a miss against either revenue floor invalidates the case. | A weekly close below $34 breaks the post-August earnings structure, beneath the $34.64 weekly close of 2026-08-07; Q3 2026 revenue below $214 million or cloud subscription revenue below $133 million independently invalidates operating confirmation. |
| BB | LOW | Retail Squeeze | $7.99 | Q1 FY27 gave the pivot real numbers (QNX $72.3M vs the $60-64M guide, FY27 raised to $594-621M), but the parabola broke: after a $13.59 high the stock fell ~37% to ~$8.54 on a meme unwind plus insider selling. Narrative maturing, price structure broken — a rolled-over retail squeeze, not a fresh entry. | A daily close below the published invalidation level forfeits the post-earnings base and opens a full retrace toward the ~$6.20 breakout shelf; secondarily, any walk-back of the raised FY27 QNX $295-312M guide or continued insider distribution. |
| CRM | MEDIUM | Legacy Pivot | $237.92 | De-rated Dow software incumbent on two dated legs: the $1.6B VA agentic ELA (2026-07-24) and Reuters' 2026-08-13 report of Silver Lake–Workday take-private talks, which put a private-market floor under mega-cap SaaS. Six target revisions between 2026-08-12 and 2026-08-20 chased price to $209.17; the 2026-08-26 Q2 FY27 print is the binary and much of the discount closed… | A daily close below $192 hands back the entire pre-print August advance and the shelf price held before the 2026-08-12 to 2026-08-20 target-raise cluster. Secondary: a 2026-08-26 Q2 FY27 print that trims the $45.9–$46.2B FY27 revenue guide, or shows cRPO growth below the +14% Y/Y Q1 pace. |
| FIVN | LOW | Legacy Pivot | $32.47 | Legacy-CCaaS AI pivot staged a sharp V-recovery: +29% off the $19.70 June swing low to $25.42, reclaiming the broken $22 shelf on a 2026-06-23 next-gen Voice AI Agents launch and an AI-first leadership overhaul. Now pressing the $26.26 June high into a binary 2026-07-30 Q2 print that resolves the seat-cannibalization-vs-monetization question. | A weekly close below $22 forfeits the reclaimed post-Q1 recovery shelf and reopens the June-low retest toward the $19.70 swing low; secondarily, a Q2 print (2026-07-30) showing AI ARR YoY decelerating below 50% with core seat revenue flat-to-negative confirms self-disruption is outrunning monetization. |
| GTLB | MEDIUM | 2nd-Order AI | $49.23 | GitLab's consumption-pricing story needs coding-agent usage to lift revenue above its September guidance. Fiscal Q3 revenue above $283 million and a paid-consumption run-rate above September's $40 million reference would confirm the case before a weekly close below $44 invalidates it. | A weekly close below $44 ends the post-earnings consumption thesis; fiscal Q3 revenue below the $281 million guidance floor announced on 2026-09-01 would independently break the operating case. |
| MGNI | MEDIUM | 2nd-Order AI | $25.15 | Magnite's connected-TV growth now has an AI advertising catalyst; a weekly close above $25.92 and reaffirmed 2026 guidance at the next quarterly report would validate the next leg. A weekly close below $21 invalidates the price structure. | A weekly close below $21 invalidates the post-results structure identified after August 6, 2026. Separately, full-year contribution ex-TAC growth guidance below 13% or the adjusted earnings margin outlook below 37% breaks the financial case. |
| NET | MEDIUM | Picks & Shovels | $323.99 | Cloudflare’s AI security and agent-infrastructure story supports a recovery toward its recorded $330.83 high. The case plays out on a weekly close above that level by the listed 2026-10-29 results date and fails on a weekly close below $290. | A weekly close below $290 breaks the reclaimed post-Q2 shelf identified in the 2026-08-29 public analysis. A Q3 revenue result below the $736 million guidance floor would separately contradict the commercial case. |
| NIQ | MEDIUM | Legacy Pivot | $18.19 | NIQ Global Intelligence’s deleveraging re-rating needs a weekly recovery above $19.24 and Q3 delivery against August guidance. A weekly close below $16.00 breaks the price case, while September’s Optiq rollout has yet to establish incremental revenue. | A weekly close below $16.00 ends the recovery thesis before a weekly close above $19.24; separately, Q3 revenue below $1,105 million or adjusted EPS below $0.22 would miss the lower bounds of the 2026-08-10 guidance. |
| PUBM | MEDIUM | Legacy Pivot | $17.55 | PubMatic's AI-led advertising recovery supports a growth re-rating, conditional on Q3 revenue reaching at least $75 million and a weekly close above the August high of $17.78. A weekly close below $15.20 would invalidate the case. | A weekly close below $15.20 invalidates the post-results re-rating structure; independently, Q3 2026 revenue below the $75 million guidance floor announced on 2026-08-06 breaks the operating premise. |
| SDGR | LOW | 2nd-Order AI | $29.02 | Agentic-AI software leg: the 2026-08-05 Bristol Myers Squibb agreement to deploy Bunsen at scale landed with a double beat (Q2 revenue $58.889M vs $47.228M consensus) and a raised drug-discovery guide of $65–75M. ACV grew 27% while reported software revenue fell ~10%, and the sell-side finished repricing by 2026-08-18, leaving a maturing narrative with no company-dated… | A weekly close below $18 (puts the tape under the $19–$20 August sell-side target cluster and the post-2026-08-05 structure); secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-11-04 est.) with software revenue down YoY again and trailing ACV growth under the guided 10–15%. |
| SNAP | MEDIUM | Legacy Pivot | $5.54 | Snap Inc.'s margin recovery supports a potential rerating above $6; the 2026-09-16 SPECS launch tests renewed attention. The price case succeeds on a weekly close above $6 before a weekly close below $5, while Q3 results test operating durability. | A weekly close below $5 ends the recovery thesis retained from the 2026-08-30 public note; independently, Q3 revenue below the $1.70 billion guidance floor invalidates the operating continuation claim. |
| SPT | MEDIUM | Legacy Pivot | $10.17 | Sprout Social's margin-led recovery thesis calls for a weekly close above the market's 2026-08-28 close of $11.49 before a weekly close below $9.50. Q3 results test whether revenue and operating income meet management's 2026-08-06 guidance. | A weekly close below $9.50 breaks the recovery structure beneath the market's 2026-08-17 range of $9.53–9.96; Q3 revenue at or below management's $123.3 million guidance floor or non-GAAP operating income below its $17.5 million guidance floor would reject operating confirmation. |
| TEAM | MEDIUM | 2nd-Order AI | $192.02 | The "agentic AI kills seat-based software" de-rating just reversed: Q4 FY26 (2026-08-06) put cloud +31% and $6,606M subscription ARR behind the Rovo/MCP agent story, and the stock gapped 30%+ on 2026-08-07 to close $149.07. The counterweight sits in the same release — FY27 revenue growth guided ~13% with Data Center -17% — and no company catalyst lands before the… | A weekly close below $130 returns more than half the 2026-08-07 earnings gap and voids the post-print re-rating; secondarily, a Q1 FY27 print (est. 2026-10-29) with cloud growth under the guided ~28.5% would confirm the break fundamentally. |
| TWLO | MEDIUM | Legacy Pivot | $243.84 | Legacy CPaaS repricing as voice/agentic-AI engagement infrastructure; sell-side re-clustered higher into the print — Cowen $245, Mizuho $240, Citizens $250 (2026-07-17/20) — but the 2026-07-30 Q2 report is now the binary deciding whether the re-rating re-accelerates or saturates. | A weekly close below $197 fills the 2026-06-01 gap and negates the re-rating; secondarily, a 2026-07-30 Q2 print with reported revenue growth below 14% or organic growth below 9.5%, or a soft Q3 guide, breaks the fundamental leg. |
| WEAV | LOW | 2nd-Order AI | $7.29 | Beaten-down vertical-SaaS front-office platform for healthcare SMBs, down ~36% YTD and basing off the $4.24 low, repositioning around AI-receptionist monetization (TrueLark, 2025). Still a ~17% grower with GAAP losses, so the re-rate is optionality not yet in the numbers; a reclaim of the $8.28 52-week high with AI-revenue proof is the trigger, and the ~Aug 6 Q2 print is… | A weekly close below $6.00 breaks the recovery base off the April $4.24 low and voids the AI-monetization re-rating setup; a Q2 print (~Aug 6) showing revenue growth decelerating under 15% with no AI-revenue disclosure is the secondary break. |
Binary-catalyst biotech
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABSI | MEDIUM | Binary Catalyst | $9.65 | Absci Corporation’s valuation rests on ABS-201 delivering human hair-growth efficacy in the guided second half of 2026. Separation from placebo would validate the case; a daily close below the published invalidation level absent efficacy or a missed readout window would invalidate it. | A daily close below the published invalidation level invalidates the price structure; separately, no interim efficacy readout by 2026-12-31 or results showing no improvement in target-area hair count against placebo breaks the clinical thesis. |
| ALVO | MEDIUM | Binary Catalyst | $5.87 | Alvotech's recovery prices in Q4 2026 FDA approvals after the Reykjavik inspection closure announced on 2026-07-29. AVT05 and AVT06 approvals within that window would confirm the regulatory-repair case; another manufacturing-related rejection would break it. | A weekly close below $4.40 breaches the market threshold published on 2026-09-07; independently, another manufacturing-related FDA rejection for AVT05 or AVT06, or a disclosed delay beyond Q4 2026, breaks the regulatory-repair thesis. |
| FRNM | MEDIUM | Binary Catalyst | $17.11 | Freenome's approved blood-test story depends on Abbott launching SimpleScreen CRC and demonstrating reimbursed testing. Carelon's 2026-11-15 guideline strengthens the pathway; a weekly close below $14 or no US launch by 2026-12-31 invalidates the case. | A weekly close below $14 invalidates the post-approval price thesis; separately, no announced US commercial launch of SimpleScreen CRC by 2026-12-31 invalidates the commercial-timing case. |
| GHRS | MEDIUM | Binary Catalyst | $28.26 | Eli Lilly's up-to-$3.8B AtaiBeckley buy (2026-07-16) put a large-cap price on 5-MeO-DMT for depression; GHRS is now the last independent pure-play, with best-in-class inhaled GH001 Phase 2b data, that the sector is repricing as the next takeout. Phase 3 FDA alignment is the gate. | A weekly close below $26 gives back the 2026-07-16 Lilly-deal gap and the July breakout shelf, ending the repricing leg. Secondary: FDA declines Phase 3 alignment or reinstates a hold, or the psychedelic-M&A theme flips saturated with no follow-through deal. |
| IMRN | LOW | Retail Squeeze | $1.22 | Immuron’s consumer-health expansion needs a dated US PROIBS launch and disclosed commercial terms to validate its September repricing. The 2026-09-04 agreement supplies neither; a weekly close below $1.65 or an annual report without those disclosures would break the near-term case. | A weekly close below $1.65 invalidates the announcement-continuation thesis; separately, the FY26 annual report expected around 2026-09-30 appearing with neither US PROIBS launch timing nor commercial terms invalidates near-term commercial validation. |
| NVAX | LOW | Binary Catalyst | $10.11 | Novavax's Matrix-M royalty re-rating needs company-confirmed Sanofi trial timing at the 2026-09-09–2026-09-10 conferences. The near-term case fails if both pass without that timing or a weekly close falls below $9.00. | A weekly close below $9.00 ends the price-confirmed Matrix-M re-rating thesis; separately, the 2026-09-09 and 2026-09-10 conferences passing without company-confirmed Sanofi Phase 3 initiation timing ends the near-term catalyst case. |
| ORKA | MEDIUM | Binary Catalyst | $94.96 | Supply overhang cleared: the 2026-07-01 Fairmount $300M block at $84.43 was absorbed and price closed $92.70 on 07-17 (+11.6%), 5% off the 52-week high, with 19.85% short interest still rising. Long-acting I&I re-rated by the $10.9B AbbVie-Apogee comp; H2-26 EVERLAST-A Week 28 durability data is the undated next binary. | A daily close below $82 breaks the July absorption shelf where the $84.43 Fairmount block was digested, reclassifying that print as distribution; a weekly close below $72.50 (May follow-on price) reopens the supply thesis. Secondary: EVERLAST-A Week 28 durability data slipping from H2-2026 into 2027. |
| TARS | MEDIUM | Dominant Narrative | $78.09 | Tarsus Pharmaceuticals’ eye-care expansion depends on XDEMVY sustaining growth after the Alkeus acquisition. The case requires next-quarter sales above Q2 2026’s $173.9 million and retention or an increase of both boundaries of the $685–705 million annual outlook before a weekly close below $78. | A weekly close below $78 invalidates the price thesis, retaining the research threshold published on 2026-09-07; separately, next-quarter XDEMVY sales at or below $173.9 million or a reduction in either boundary of the $685–705 million annual guidance breaks the commercial premise. |
Biofuels & low-carbon fuels
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGM | MEDIUM | 2nd-Order AI | $220.94 | Federal Agricultural Mortgage Corporation's infrastructure lending supports an earnings-led re-rating. The next quarterly report tests whether spread income grows with volume; a weekly close above $240.02 fulfills the price case, while a daily close below the published invalidation level invalidates it. | A daily close below the published invalidation level invalidates the re-rating thesis; separately, the next quarterly report showing outstanding volume above $37.2 billion but net effective spread at or below $117.4 million would break the earnings-conversion case. |
| CLMT | MEDIUM | Legacy Pivot | $59.00 | Calumet’s lower-cost aviation-fuel expansion supports its re-rating if year-end 2026 production exceeds an annual 80 million gallons within the disclosed $137 million remaining-capital plan. The final loan draw reported on 2026-09-14 advances financing; a weekly close below $47 or failure of those operating conditions invalidates the case. | A weekly close below $47 invalidates the re-rating thesis; a disclosed increase above the $137 million remaining-capital plan, a tie-in delayed into 2027, or year-end 2026 annual SAF production at or below 80 million gallons also breaks the operating case. |
Bitcoin miners
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLSK | HIGH | Legacy Pivot | $14.47 | Spring's binary resolved bullish: CleanSpark signed a $6.6B, 20-year Georgia data-center lease (2026-07-14) with an unnamed "global technology company," converting the BTC-miner-to-AI-infrastructure pivot from speculation into contracted revenue; sell-side chased PTs to $23–26 within 48h. The leg is the re-rate of a proven pivot, with fiscal Q3 (~2026-08-05) the first read… | A weekly close below $17.00 fills the 2026-07-14 lease-announcement gap and returns the stock to its pre-signing $16–17 range, un-pricing the re-rate; a fiscal Q3 print (~2026-08-05) showing lease revenue fully back-end-loaded, or the AI-datacenter theme rolling to saturated, would independently break the leg. |
| HIVE | LOW | Legacy Pivot | $3.41 | BTC-miner→AI-compute re-rating has its first blue-chip proof — BUZZ HPC's $220M Bell/Cohere sovereign-AI GPU deal (~$70M ARR) on top of $35M contracted ARR — but the stock stalled ~$3.79 below its early-June highs as BTC bled ~45-50% off October and a $300M ATM plus $115M of notes cap upside. Needs a price reclaim to confirm; no fresh momentum yet. | A weekly close below $3.20 fills the early-June Bell/Cohere breakout gap and confirms the AI re-rating failed to hold its base against a falling BTC tape; secondary: the next monthly BUZZ HPC update shows contracted ARR flat-to-down, or BTC loses $58K and drags the miner basket below breakeven. |
| MARA | LOW | Legacy Pivot | $13.24 | AI/HPC power-buildout re-rate is the leg being bought — the 2026-07-09 HIF deal adds up to 2 GW in Texas, lifting potential capacity toward ~4.8 GW — but the golden-cross base fully round-tripped to ~$11.4 as analysts cut across the board (MS $5.50, Piper $13) and MARA still trades as leveraged Bitcoin beta into a 21-month-low tape. Narrative real, structure broken; a… | A weekly close below $10 (loses the July shelf and the round number under the sub-$13 analyst cluster, confirming the AI-power-buildout bid is not being paid for and MARA is tracking the sub-$60K Bitcoin tape toward the $5.50 bear target); reinforced by a BTC weekly close under $60K. |
Consumer discretionary rotation
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANF | LOW | Legacy Pivot | $135.76 | Abercrombie & Fitch’s margin re-rating lacks price confirmation after the 2026-09-18 close of $135.76. Continuation requires a weekly close above $152.08 before Q3 results, estimated for 2026-11-24, without first closing below $130. | A weekly close below $130 invalidates the post-earnings continuation case; Q3 fiscal 2026 EPS below $2.90 or a reduction in the $13.10–$13.60 full-year EPS guidance separately breaks the operating case. |
| HBB | LOW | Emergent | $31.64 | Hamilton Beach Brands' tariff-refund re-rating needs durable underlying margins and renewed price strength. A weekly close above the September 11 reference high of $33.86 before a weekly close below $28.00 completes the price case; third-quarter results test the operating recovery. | A weekly close below $28.00 ends the post-refund price thesis; secondary invalidation is third-quarter gross margin excluding comparable tariff benefits below Q2 2026's 26.1%, or 2026 operating-profit guidance reverting to a low-teens decline. |
| HNST | MEDIUM | Legacy Pivot | $5.33 | The Honest Company’s margin re-rating depends on Q3 confirming organic growth and profitability excluding tariff refunds. Confirmation requires organic growth of at least 5%, underlying adjusted gross margin of at least 43.8% and unchanged annual guidance before a weekly close below $5.00 invalidates the structure. | A weekly close below $5.00 breaks the consolidation beneath the 2026-08-21 low of $5.05; a reduction in the FY2026 organic-growth or adjusted-gross-margin outlook issued on 2026-08-05 separately invalidates the operating premise. |
| ODD | LOW | Binary Catalyst | $18.11 | Broken compounder with exactly one dated event: the 2026-09-09 pre-market Q2 print. Price ran $13.22 (2026-08-21) to $14.35 (2026-08-28) on no company disclosure since 2026-07-22, leaving it ~30% above the $11.07 consensus target of 10 analysts with RSI(14) at 61.9 into a gap that resolves first-order trend, CPA direction and the FY2026 adjusted-EBITDA guide. | A weekly close below $13 abandons the shelf the 2026-08-21 close of $13.22 defended and re-opens the ~$9.25 July bounce origin; secondary condition: the 2026-09-09 Q2 print shows first orders still down more than 40% YoY with CPA unimproved, or the FY2026 positive-adjusted-EBITDA guide is cut or withdrawn. |
| SG | LOW | Retail Squeeze | $7.22 | Sweetgreen’s recovery thesis links sales stabilization to KeyBanc’s 2026-09-08 target of $9. The next quarterly results test the operating case; a daily close at or above $9 completes the price case, while a weekly close below $6.00 invalidates it. | A weekly close below $6.00 invalidates the recovery structure identified on 2026-09-06. Separately, fiscal-year comparable-sales guidance worse than an 8.0% decline or an adjusted EBITDA loss outlook exceeding $27 million contradicts stabilization. |
| W | LOW | Legacy Pivot | $102.46 | Margin-inflection turnaround has stalled: after the June Evercore-driven pop, W has faded ~10% back to the ~$84–85 recovery base ahead of the binary Aug 4 Q2 print. Wedbush's Jul 16 Neutral/$104 initiation and a ~$100-capped consensus mark a maturing theme — price sitting on the invalidation line with earnings inside two weeks is a stand-aside, not a chase. | A weekly close below $83 fills the June 23 Evercore gap and loses the $84–85 recovery base; secondary breaks: the Aug 4 Q2 print showing adjusted EBITDA margin under the guided 6–7% or revenue decelerating below mid-single-digit YoY, or the consumer-brands-rotation theme flipping to saturated. |
| WPP | LOW | Legacy Pivot | $25.42 | WPP’s re-rating rests on revenue stabilisation after the September index-promotion case expired. The next quarterly update must improve on the 2.8% like-for-like decline and retain 12–13% margin guidance before a weekly close below $24 invalidates the case. | A weekly close below $24 ends the re-rating structure; a subsequent quarterly like-for-like decline in revenue less pass-through costs worse than Q2 2026’s 2.8%, or a reduction in the 12–13% FY2026 headline operating margin guide, also breaks the stabilisation thesis. |
Critical materials & rare earths
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CDE | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $19.76 | Coeur Mining’s cash-backed repair thesis requires price recovery and confirmation that reduced production guidance holds. A weekly close above the September $21.24 reference and reaffirmed guidance at the next quarterly report would confirm the case; a weekly close below $19 invalidates it. | A weekly close below $19 ends the price-repair thesis at the threshold retained from the 2026-09-06 research note. A further cut in annual gold guidance below 630,000 ounces or copper below 40 million pounds separately breaks the operating premise. |
| EGO | MEDIUM | Dominant Narrative | $43.22 | Eldorado Gold’s Skouries expansion thesis now hinges on fourth-quarter 2026 commercial production after first concentrate on September 8. Delivery before a weekly close below $40 would validate the case; a delay into 2027 would contradict the operating schedule. | A weekly close below $40 breaks the August shelf identified in the 2026-09-04 public note; separately, company guidance moving Skouries commercial production into 2027 invalidates the operating schedule. |
| FSM | MEDIUM | Dominant Narrative | $11.95 | Fortuna Mining’s gold-supported cash generation funds its mine-growth story, but the September 11 retreat weakens the recovery case. A weekly close above $13.66 before a weekly close below $11.00 would confirm the equity thesis. | A weekly close below $11.00 before a weekly close above $13.66 invalidates the equity recovery thesis; second-half 2026 AISC at or above $2,157 per gold equivalent ounce would separately contradict management’s cost-improvement forecast. |
| IAG | MEDIUM | Dominant Narrative | $20.35 | IAMGOLD’s margin-expansion case depends on Côté lowering costs as gold support weakens. Q3 all-in sustaining costs within the published $2,000–$2,150 per-ounce range and retained annual production guidance would confirm the case before a weekly close below $18.50 invalidates it. | A weekly close below $18.50 ends the margin-expansion case, retaining the research threshold published on 2026-09-04. An increase in 2026 all-in sustaining cost guidance above the maintained $2,000–$2,150 per-ounce range would independently contradict the operating premise. |
| SSRM | MEDIUM | Dominant Narrative | $36.33 | SSR Mining’s post-divestiture re-rating rests on cash and repurchases, with weaker momentum after the 2026-09-04 jobs report. A weekly close above the $39.21 market high would confirm the case before a weekly close below $33 invalidates it. | A weekly close below $33 ends the post-divestiture re-rating thesis, retaining the research boundary published on 2026-09-04. A reduction below the 450,000-ounce lower end of FY2026 production guidance would separately undermine the operating case. |
Crypto exchanges & financials
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASST | MEDIUM | Dominant Narrative | $30.09 | Strive, Inc.'s bitcoin-treasury premium thesis depends on increasing bitcoin per diluted common share. A company-reported year-to-date Bitcoin Yield above the 40.8% reading dated 2026-08-28 would confirm the case before a weekly close below $21 invalidates it; the September 8 filing supplies no updated yield. | A weekly close below $21 invalidates the momentum thesis; a subsequent company disclosure showing declining bitcoin per diluted common share while common issuance continues also breaks the financing case. |
| BLSH | LOW | Binary Catalyst | $38.34 | Bullish's regulatory repricing thesis requires successful CLARITY Act cloture followed by a weekly close above $37.10 before a weekly close below $31. The September 15, 2026 milestone is motion ripening, while the September 9 close of $34.34 leaves price confirmation unresolved. | A weekly close below $31 loses the market's August 26, 2026 intraday low and invalidates the advance thesis. Rejection or withdrawal of the H.R. 3633 cloture motion separately breaks the legislative-progress premise. |
| BTCS | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $1.60 | BTCS Inc.’s Ethereum recovery thesis requires stronger DeFi earnings without renewed borrowing. The next Q3 disclosure must show gross profit above Q2 2026’s $1.5 million and debt no higher than June’s $50.4 million before a weekly close below $1.25 invalidates the case. | A weekly close below $1.25 invalidates the recovery thesis; Q3 gross profit at or below Q2 2026’s $1.5 million, or total debt above June 30’s $50.4 million on comparable reporting definitions, defeats the fundamental case. |
| BULL | MEDIUM | Retail Squeeze | $8.25 | June dormant-to-leader flip is confirming: the ~$7.52 breakout resolved up on the 2026-07-21 surge, Rosenblatt lifted its target to $13 (2026-07-16), and June ops printed 28.2M users / $800M net deposits. Theme accelerating; read is a held-breakout continuation as long as $7.30 holds as the flipped support shelf. | A daily close below $7.30 fails the breakout back into the $7 range and puts the June flip in question; a close below $6.60 loses the handle and 50-day, and a theme flip to saturated mainstream coverage without a fresh catalyst, or renewed relative weakness vs HOOD, caps the re-rate. |
| COIN | MEDIUM | Dominant Narrative | $194.25 | Coinbase’s recovery now rests on agency-led crypto market access after the Senate setback. Confirmation requires a weekly close above the historical $196.07 reference and third-quarter subscription-and-services revenue within the published $500–580 million guidance range before a weekly close below $160 breaks the case. | A weekly close below $160 breaks the August recovery structure, undercutting the 2026-08-19 gap-bottom close of $160.20; third-quarter subscription-and-services revenue below the $500 million guidance floor separately invalidates the operating leg. |
| CRCL | LOW | Binary Catalyst | $91.78 | Circle Internet Group's Arc-led infrastructure breakout failed when its 2026-09-09 close of $92.99 breached the published $95 boundary. The scheduled 2026-09-16 public launch still tests delivery, while any recovery case requires renewed price confirmation. | A daily close below $95 invalidates the published breakout thesis; the 2026-09-09 adjusted close of $92.99 already met this condition. Independently, Arc remaining unavailable to the public after 2026-09-16 invalidates the launch premise. |
| FWDI | LOW | Legacy Pivot | $7.70 | Forward Industries' Solana treasury re-rating requires growing tokens per share and a verified recovery to net asset value. Updated disclosure must show fully diluted mNAV at or above 1.0x and SOL per share of at least 0.0754 before a weekly close below $4.95 invalidates the case; the reported 0.908x mNAV is dated 2026-06-30. | A weekly close below $4.95 ends the re-rating thesis by losing the March repurchase shelf identified in the 2026-09-07 assessment. Separately, a subsequent treasury disclosure below 0.0754 SOL per fully diluted share breaks the accumulation leg. |
| HOOD | MEDIUM | Dominant Narrative | $119.82 | Robinhood Markets' September repricing now includes prediction-market infrastructure alongside on-chain finance. Stronger August activity and a weekly close above $124.72 would confirm continuation; a weekly close below $107 would invalidate it. | A weekly close below $107 invalidates the September repricing thesis by returning the market toward the 2026-09-02 pre-jump close of $106.99. |
| IBTA | MEDIUM | Emergent | $41.57 | Ibotta's rally prices a repeatable recovery in digital-promotions revenue; Q3 revenue above $86 million with year-over-year growth would confirm the next leg, unless a weekly close below $33 invalidates it first. | A weekly close below $33 invalidates the post-results re-rating thesis; independently, Q3 2026 revenue at or below the $86 million lower endpoint of guidance issued on 2026-08-03 fails the operating confirmation test. |
| MSTR | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $153.92 | Strategy Inc.'s bitcoin accumulation thesis needs successive purchase disclosures and STRC recovering its $100 stated amount. Those milestones must arrive before a weekly close below $123 invalidates the price structure. | A weekly close below $123 invalidates the September recovery structure; renewed common-equity financing alongside unchanged or declining bitcoin holdings would separately contradict the accumulation mechanism. |
| SBET | MEDIUM | Legacy Pivot | $9.35 | SharpLink's Ether treasury discount is the recovery thesis: The Block reported a 0.84-times net asset value multiple on 2026-09-07. The case plays out if a comparable valuation reaches net asset value before a daily close below the published invalidation level invalidates it. | A daily close below the published invalidation level invalidates the discount-closure recovery thesis; this retains the published research threshold beneath the market's $7.91 weekly close on 2026-08-21 and $8.20 weekly close on 2026-08-28. |
| UPXI | LOW | Binary Catalyst | $1.19 | Upexi’s Solana-discount recovery requires positive audited net assets and a Nasdaq bid-price cure. The September 28 annual-report checkpoint is provisional, while a weekly close below $1.00 invalidates the recovery structure. | A weekly close below $1.00 invalidates the recovery structure at the disclosed Nasdaq minimum-bid threshold; continued negative stockholders’ equity in the fiscal 2026 annual report independently defeats the fundamental case. |
| XXI | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $5.81 | The one re-rate catalyst just died: Tether's Strike–Elektron three-way merger was scrapped on 2026-07-21 and CEO Jack Mallers quit, dropping XXI to a fresh all-time low near $4.46. A leveraged-Bitcoin-treasury proxy stuck below 1.0x float mNAV can't run its accretive flywheel from record lows — the story is broken, not merely cheap. Nothing in the structure supports a fresh entry here. | A weekly close below $4.46 confirms fresh all-time-low continuation, with the Strike–Elektron re-rate dead and the treasury flywheel reversed below NAV; the avoid stance only flips to a probe on a weekly reclaim of the low-$6s 20-EMA zone alongside BTC holding a higher low above $70k. |
Cybersecurity
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAMI | MEDIUM | Legacy Pivot | $90.74 | Acadian Asset Management’s repricing depends on client inflows sustaining higher fees and margins. Positive third-quarter flows, management fees of at least $176.5 million and an economic net income operating margin of at least 40.3% would confirm the case; a weekly close below $84 would invalidate it. | A weekly close below $84 ends the continuation thesis at the research boundary published on 2026-09-05; negative third-quarter net client cash flows would independently invalidate the organic-growth leg after second-quarter inflows of $4.3 billion. |
| CRWD | MEDIUM | Dominant Narrative | $237.65 | Fal.Con (2026-08-31 to 09-03) delivered real product — Falcon Guardian, Falcon IQ, GPT-5.6 Cyber in Falcon, Anthropic marketplace distribution — and nine broker actions through 2026-09-04 including Truist $300, yet CRWD closed $213.10 on 2026-09-04, below the $218.40 of 08-28 and the $233.88 range high. The catalyst is spent and no company-dated event lands before the… | A weekly close below $200 gives back the 2026-08-26 reaction gap and returns price into the pre-print range that ended with the $191.95 close of 2026-08-21; secondary, the ~2026-12-02 Q3 FY2027 print landing net new ARR below the $333M record or leaving the $1.350B–$1.359B FY2027 net-new-ARR guide unraised. |
| ESTC | LOW | 2nd-Order AI | $86.96 | AI-retrieval-layer narrative accelerating: Q4 FY26 total RPO $1.98B grew 28% YoY against revenue +16%, and the 2026-07-30 OpenAI partnership re-rated the name 56.8% in three months. The 2026-08-27 Q1 FY27 print is the binary — company guided $469–470M (+13.1%) and has not yet raised the FY27 $1.985–2.000B range. | A daily close below $76 (roughly a fifth off the $94.47 52-week high, giving back the advance rather than digesting it); secondarily, the 2026-08-27 Q1 FY27 print passing with no raise to the FY27 $1.985–$2.000B revenue range and cRPO growth below the 20% posted at Q4 FY26. |
| FROG | MEDIUM | 2nd-Order AI | $92.81 | Software-supply-chain-security plus AI-agent "trust layer" narrative keeps re-rating: the analyst cluster now leads price above $100 (UBS Buy $110 Jul 2, Truist Buy $105 Jul 9), confirming the continuation tell flagged in June. Fundamentals accelerating (Q1 rev +26%, security 10% of ARR), but a fresh long is extended near 52-week highs with the ~Aug 6 Q2 print the next binary. | A weekly close below $82 loses the rising low-$80s 20-EMA and the prior $80.75 consensus shelf, breaking the momentum leg; a secondary break is the ~Aug 6 Q2 print cutting or merely reaffirming the FY26 $628M–$632M revenue guide, or the theme rolling to saturated with no fresh PT leadership above $110. |
| FTNT | MEDIUM | 2nd-Order AI | $169.84 | Q2 (2026-07-29) resolved up — revenue $2.047B vs ~$1.89B, product +52% YoY, FY26 guide raised to $8.020–8.180B — but price has gone nowhere since: $161.95 on 07-31, $160.01 on 08-14, still 4.9% under the $168.29 high. The 44-analyst mean target is $160.86, essentially at spot, rating still Hold. Nothing Fortinet-dated until ~2026-11-04; CRWD (08-26) and PANW (09-01) set the… | A weekly close below $150 forfeits the 2026-07-21 to 2026-07-28 pre-print closing band and puts price under the June 2026 all-time high of $151.97; secondary break if the $168.29 52-week high is still unreclaimed after both the CrowdStrike (2026-08-26) and Palo Alto (2026-09-01) prints. |
| OKTA | HELD | Emergent | $182.37 | Identity-security re-rating in its second, sell-side-led leg; the upgrade wave is still building nearly two months post-print — Wells Fargo lifted its target to $150 from $100 on 2026-07-20, collapsing the low-end dispersion. Cyber theme accelerating, this leg maturing; open risk is paying up for a stretched 52-week-high tape. | A weekly close below $110 loses the post-earnings breakout shelf and the rising 20-EMA; secondary confirmation would be a cRPO/billings/net-new-seat deceleration at the ~2026-08-26 print that resets the multiple. |
| PCTY | MEDIUM | 2nd-Order AI | $143.73 | Post-print re-rating leg: the 2026-08-04 Q4 FY26 beat ($1.84 adj. EPS vs $1.61 est.) triggered five price-target raises in 48 hours and a $150.42 close on 2026-08-07, +35.5% over three months. The buy is multiple recovery in mid-cap HCM software, paid for against an FY27 guide that steps recurring growth down from 12.2% to ~8%. | A weekly close below $140 (fills the 2026-08-04 post-print gap and returns PCTY to its pre-earnings range); secondarily, any cut to the $1.777B FY27 recurring & other revenue floor at the Q1 FY27 print in late October. |
| RPD | LOW | Binary Catalyst | $11.97 | Rapid7's cost-cutting recovery needs Q3 2026 results to meet revenue and recurring-revenue guidance while preserving the 20% Q4 adjusted operating-margin goal. A weekly close below $10.60 or withdrawal of that goal invalidates the case. | A weekly close below $10.60 breaks the July shelf and invalidates the recovery case; Q3 revenue below $208 million, ARR below the approximately $812 million company forecast, or withdrawal of the 20% Q4 2026 adjusted operating-margin goal would also defeat it. |
| WT | LOW | Emergent | $23.07 | WisdomTree’s record August assets and September 17 MoonPay agreement support a fee-growth rerating thesis. A weekly close at or above the $25.04 annual high observed September 18, 2026 confirms the price case; a weekly close below that day’s $23.07 reference close invalidates it. | A weekly close below $23.07, the September 18, 2026 adjusted reference close, invalidates the continuation thesis before a weekly close at or above the observed $25.04 annual high. |
Cyclical industrials
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGCO | MEDIUM | Dominant Narrative | $119.79 | AGCO Corporation's valuation reflects a 2027 farm-equipment recovery that remains unconfirmed by reported demand. A weekly close above the $139.71 market high recorded as of 2026-09-04 and Q3 results meeting July guidance would confirm the case; a daily close below the published invalidation level would invalidate it. | A daily close below the published invalidation level invalidates the recovery price structure; separately, Q3 2026 sales below $2.3 billion or adjusted EPS below $0.85 would break the earnings-trough assumption embedded in AGCO's 2026-07-30 guidance. |
| BWMN | HIGH | Binary Catalyst | $42.46 | Bowman Consulting Group’s $43.00 cash acquisition makes merger completion the central thesis. The case resolves with payment of the announced consideration before a daily close below $40.50; the 2026-09-13 go-shop deadline narrows solicitation rights without ruling out a later superior proposal. | A daily close below $40.50 invalidates the completion-before-price-deterioration thesis. A disclosed merger termination, failed shareholder vote or financing failure preventing completion independently breaks the transaction case. |
| CLF | MEDIUM | Legacy Pivot | $12.50 | Cleveland-Cliffs’ tariff-supported cash-flow recovery needs another positive quarter and a weekly close above $12.50. A weekly close below $11.62 would invalidate the recovery, while unresolved labor terms remain the nearest operating uncertainty. | A weekly close below $11.62 breaks the recovery above the 2026-08-28 adjusted close. Negative third-quarter free cash flow would separately contradict the operating thesis anchored in the 2026-07-23 results. |
| CNH | MEDIUM | Dominant Narrative | $13.45 | CNH Industrial's farm-equipment recovery is being priced ahead of earnings after September's analyst upgrades. The next quarterly report tests margin recovery, while a weekly close below $12.50 invalidates the re-rating leg. | A weekly close below $12.50 invalidates the September re-rating leg; the reference is Evercore's 2026-08-11 analyst target. Separately, FY2026 agriculture adjusted EBIT margin guidance below 5.0% or adjusted diluted EPS guidance below $0.41 breaks the earnings foundation. |
| HNI | MEDIUM | Legacy Pivot | $46.11 | HNI Corporation’s Steelcase integration could sustain earnings growth despite weak organic sales, but the September 18 close broke the prior shelf. The next quarterly report tests delivery against July’s raised outlook; a weekly close below $44 ends the market re-rating thesis. | A weekly close below $44 invalidates the post-July earnings re-rating thesis; withdrawal of the 20–25% FY2026 adjusted EPS growth outlook issued on 2026-07-30 would independently break the operating case. |
| MAN | LOW | Retail Squeeze | $57.64 | Cyclical staffing inflection confirmed by the 2026-08-07 10-Q, but sell-side marks stopped moving 2026-07-20 and the next company binary is ~2026-10-15. | A weekly close below $52 gives back the 2026-07-16 gap-up shelf and reopens the unfilled July earnings gap toward the pre-print zone; a soft US August payrolls print around 2026-09-04 would be the macro confirmation that the cyclical premise is rolling over. |
| MTW | MEDIUM | Emergent | $22.35 | Manitowoc's crane-order recovery supports its re-rating if Q3 backlog holds at least $1,050.1 million and raised 2026 profit guidance survives. A weekly close below $18 invalidates the price thesis; the Q3 reporting date remains unconfirmed. | A weekly close below $18 invalidates the crane-order re-rating; a secondary break is Q3 backlog below the $1,050.1 million Q2 mark or a reduction in the $150–170 million 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance issued on 2026-08-06. |
| RCMT | MEDIUM | Picks & Shovels | $39.39 | RCM Technologies’ energy-services re-rating requires continued Engineering growth and stable margins. Q3 revenue above the segment’s $39.5 million Q2 level and consolidated gross margin of at least 25.7% would confirm the case, provided a weekly close below $34.00 has not occurred first. | A weekly close below $34.00 breaks the earnings-move structure; independently, Q3 Engineering revenue at or below $39.5 million or consolidated gross margin below 25.7% invalidates the operating case. |
| SID | LOW | Legacy Pivot | $1.10 | New-CEO deleveraging story: Fabio Schvartsman replaced 24-year CEO Benjamin Steinbruch on 2026-09-03 and the ADR ran from $1.13 (09-01) to $1.22 (09-04) with RSI at 79.2, while R$42.1bn net debt and 3.49x leverage are untouched until a cement divestment or the early-November Q3 print gives the re-rating something dated to price. | A weekly close below $1.10 (gives back the entire 2026-09-03 CEO-transition gap and returns the ADR under the 09-01/09-02 range), or a Q3 2026 print in early November with steel EBITDA margin short of the 15-17% H2 target and leverage still at or above 3.49x. |
| TITN | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $23.72 | Titan Machinery’s farm-equipment recovery re-rating requires falling total inventory and preserved earnings guidance at its next quarterly report. A weekly close below $23 would invalidate the market thesis before confirmation. | A weekly close below $23 invalidates the cycle-bottom re-rating; independently, next-quarter total inventory above $931.5 million or a cut to fiscal 2027 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $17 million–$29 million breaks the operating recovery case. |
Defense & aerospace
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPRO | MEDIUM | Retail Squeeze | $5.62 | Draganfly's policy-led drone re-rating now has a Canadian defence contract behind it, announced on 2026-09-11. A weekly close above the historical $6.23 reference would confirm price recovery; a weekly close below $4.70 would invalidate the case. | A weekly close below $4.70 ends the price-recovery thesis by breaching the previously published support boundary; cancellation of the Canadian contract announced on 2026-09-11 would separately remove its new procurement support. |
| MRCY | HELD | Legacy Pivot | $85.28 | Defense-electronics turnaround still re-rating on record bookings and a promised FCF turn, but the stock has given back ~20% from its $128.45 ATH and now chops near the analyst median (~$103) into a binary ~Aug 10-18 Q4/full-year print. Consolidation, not acceleration — the move is maturing into the report. | A weekly close below $94 loses the breakout base and rising 50-day shelf underpinning the advance. Secondary: a Q4 FY26 print (~2026-08-10 to 08-18) with free cash flow failing to turn positive or book-to-bill under 1.0, or defense-electronics flipping to saturated as KTOS/AVAV break their July lows. |
Emerging markets
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KARO | MEDIUM | Dominant Narrative | $66.67 | Karooooo's record subscriber additions support a continuation thesis, resolved by a weekly close above $68.71 before a weekly close below $62. The next quarterly report tests whether the July-reported subscriber momentum persists. | A weekly close below $62 breaks the August price structure and falls below the August 14, 2026 reference close of $62.28. Q2 FY2027 net subscriber additions below 142,472 would separately reject repetition of the July-reported record pace. |
Fintech & consumer credit
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAVE | HELD | Dominant Narrative | $337.82 | Dave Inc.'s growth-and-credit-quality recovery case is invalidated by the September 18, 2026 weekly close of $337.82 below its published $358 boundary. JPMorgan's September 15 initiation adds favorable coverage but does not reverse that outcome. | A weekly close below $358 invalidates the published recovery case; the September 18, 2026 close of $337.82 has met that condition. A reduction below the August 5 full-year operating-revenue guidance floor of $725 million separately breaks the operating premise. |
| OPRT | MEDIUM | Legacy Pivot | $8.16 | Oportun Financial Corporation's margin-repair re-rating needs a weekly close above the $8.09 market high and Q3 results meeting its 2026-08-05 guidance. A weekly close below $7.00 or Q3 adjusted EBITDA below $43 million invalidates the case. | A weekly close below $7.00 ends the margin-repair re-rating thesis; Q3 adjusted EBITDA below the $43 million guidance floor or a cut to FY2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $1.50–$1.65 also invalidates the operating case. |
| PMTS | MEDIUM | Picks & Shovels | $24.14 | Levered card manufacturer re-rating on cash generation: Q2 revenue $149.2M (+15%) with net leverage cut to 2.7x from 3.6x and FY free-cash-flow guidance lifted to $45–50M on 2026-08-06. Adjusted EBITDA grew just 7% against that 15% top line, so margin conversion is the contested variable, and no company-dated event lands before the Q3 print in early November. | A weekly close below $25 ends the deleveraging re-rating leg, measured against the 2026-08-28 close of $28.83 and the $30.50 52-week high; secondarily, a Q3 print (~2026-11-03) that again pairs double-digit revenue growth with low-to-mid single-digit adjusted EBITDA growth and no improvement on 2.7x net leverage. |
| PYPL | MEDIUM | Legacy Pivot | $52.41 | PayPal's standalone turnaround rests on profit guidance reiterated on 2026-09-09 despite checkout pressure. The case plays out if the 2026-10-27 results preserve its approximately $5.38 annual adjusted earnings-per-share outlook before a weekly close below $48 invalidates the structure. | A weekly close below $48 breaks the retained July-repricing boundary; a reduction in the approximately $5.38 full-year adjusted earnings-per-share outlook at the 2026-10-27 results independently contradicts the operating premise. |
| SEZL | HELD | Dominant Narrative | $116.55 | Sezzle's profitable-growth recovery thesis requires a daily close above $129.87 before a weekly close below $114 invalidates it. The 2026-09-18 adjusted close of $116.55 lost the August shelf again, reversing the intermediate repair described on September 11. | A weekly close below $114 invalidates the recovery thesis by undercutting the 2026-09-01 closing low of $114.52. The 2026-09-18 close of $116.55 has lost the August shelf but has not breached this condition. |
Freight & logistics
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARCB | HELD | Legacy Pivot | $128.73 | ArcBest’s cost-reduction rebound failed its published price condition at the 2026-09-18 weekly close of $128.73. Third-quarter results still test recurring savings and preservation of the second-quarter 90.8% adjusted Asset-Based operating ratio, but cannot undo that invalidation. | A weekly close below $134.45 invalidates the published rebound thesis; this condition was met by the $128.73 close on 2026-09-18. A Q3 2026 adjusted Asset-Based operating ratio above 90.8% would separately fail the margin-preservation test. |
| BWLP | MEDIUM | Dominant Narrative | $25.66 | BW LPG Limited’s contracted freight earnings support dividend continuation; its 2026-11-24 report must show Q3 realised shipping TCE above Q2’s $74,000 per day and a dividend of at least $0.95 per share. A weekly close below $22.00 invalidates the price structure first. | A weekly close below $22.00 in the dividend-adjusted series ends the continuation thesis; independently, Q3 realised TCE at or below $74,000 per available day or a dividend below $0.95 per share at the 2026-11-24 report defeats the operating case. |
| DHT | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $23.27 | DHT Holdings’ tanker-rate story depends on strong charter bookings sustaining its September 11 high through the next results. Confirmation requires reported earnings to meet the disclosed booking benchmark and the release week to close above $22 before a weekly close below $22 invalidates the case. | A weekly close below $22 invalidates retention of the September 11, 2026 adjusted 52-week high; this is a continuation threshold, not an established support base. |
| DSX | LOW | Emergent | $3.11 | Diana Shipping's higher charter rates underpin a near-term breakout thesis, settled by a weekly close above $3.01 before a weekly close below $2.97. Those levels are the adjusted annual high and latest daily close in the September 11, 2026 market snapshot. | A weekly close below $2.97 before a weekly close above $3.01 invalidates the near-term continuation thesis; $2.97 is the September 11, 2026 adjusted daily reference close, not a verified support shelf. |
| FRO | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $51.42 | Frontline's tanker-rate boom supports an earnings-persistence thesis, conditional on retaining the September high. The 2026-11-30 results test whether third-quarter vessel earnings sustain the second-quarter benchmark before a weekly close below $49.21 invalidates the continuation case. | A weekly close below $49.21 on the adjusted daily-price series invalidates retention of the 2026-09-11 high; third-quarter achieved daily earnings for very large crude carriers below the second-quarter $152,700 benchmark also reject the earnings-persistence case. |
| HAFN | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $10.12 | Hafnia Limited’s tanker-earnings surge supports a continuation case at its 2026-09-11 high. The 2026-11-18 results test earnings durability, while a weekly close below $9.38 invalidates the price thesis. | A weekly close below $9.38 invalidates continuation above the 2026-09-11 adjusted high; Q3 average time charter equivalent earnings below the disclosed $30,716 per day booking reference would separately fail the operating test. |
| JBHT | HELD | Dominant Narrative | $234.25 | J.B. Hunt’s freight-recovery thesis was invalidated by the 2026-09-18 a daily close below the published invalidation level The estimated 2026-10-15 report tests whether intermodal pricing and profit growth can support a separate recovery case after September’s cost warning. | A daily close below the published invalidation level invalidates the published freight-recovery structure. This condition was met on 2026-09-18, when the adjusted market close was $234.25; the original thesis has already failed its price test. |
| KELYA | LOW | Legacy Pivot | $16.14 | Kelly Services' staffing-recovery thesis depends on Q3 2026 meeting revenue and margin guidance before a weekly close below $15. The 2026-09-18 close of $16.14 has lost the former $16.31 shelf, weakening the price evidence ahead of that operating test. | A weekly close below $15 invalidates the post-Q2 price-recovery thesis; independently, Q3 2026 reported revenue below the $916.3 million guidance floor or adjusted EBITDA margin below management's guided low-2% range breaks the operating case. |
| KFRC | LOW | Legacy Pivot | $51.88 | Cyclical staffing recovery is fully printed — Q1 returned to YoY growth, Q2 guided +~4% — but price ran ~24% in three weeks to a fresh all-time high near $58.6, ~38% above the $42.33 consensus PT, into the confirmed 2026-07-27 Q2 print. A low-beta income name stretched past every analyst target into a binary; the extension, not the story, is now the risk. Nothing to chase… | A weekly close below $50 forfeits the early-July breakout shelf (the ~$50.90 pivot) and signals the recovery-momentum leg has rolled, opening the $46–47 June base and the $40–42 post-Q1 gap; secondary, a 2026-07-27 Q2 print under the $344M revenue guide low-end or margins missing the 5.0–5.4% band. |
| LPG | HIGH | Dominant Narrative | $58.15 | Dorian LPG’s contracted freight surge supports September-quarter TCE above June’s record $75,926 per available day. Reported results settle the case; a weekly close below $47 invalidates the equity thesis first. | A weekly close below $47 invalidates the reclaimed August breakout structure. Separately, September-quarter reported TCE at or below the June quarter’s $75,926 per available day defeats the record-quarter earnings case. |
| LSTR | HELD | Emergent | $170.29 | Landstar System's truckload repricing must produce further earnings improvement. The 2026-10-27 results settle the case if truck revenue per load grows year over year and earnings per share exceed the second quarter's $1.44 before a weekly close below $167. | A weekly close below $167 breaks the published price structure. Separately, no year-over-year growth in truck revenue per load in the 2026-10-27 results invalidates the operating repricing thesis. |
| PANL | LOW | Binary Catalyst | $8.38 | Dry-bulk recovery is in the P&L but not the tape: Q1 2026 (2026-05-11) adjusted EBITDA +70% YoY to $25.2M on $15,252/day TCE, yet the stock closed $7.42 on 2026-08-07, 20.1% under the $9.29 52-week high. The 2026-08-10 Q2 print is the binary that resolves which side is right. | A daily close below $7.00 after the 2026-08-10 Q2 print (gives back the range held into it from the 2026-08-07 close of $7.42); secondary condition, the Baltic Dry Index slipping back under its 2026-07-14 level, dating the August rate strength as weather-driven. |
| RXO | HELD | Dominant Narrative | $20.26 | Freight-cycle recovery intact; sell-side has fully caught up into a $20–35 battleground — bears $20 (Goldman 07-16, Susquehanna 07-14), bulls $30–35 (BMO $35 initiation 07-14, Stifel/Truist/Citi $30). Narrative matured from mispriced to consensus; the ~2026-08-05 Q2 print (adj EBITDA guide $27–37M vs $6M Q1) is the binary the whole re-rate discounts. | A weekly close below $24 loses the May–June breakout shelf and consolidation base; secondary breaks are Q2 adjusted EBITDA (~2026-08-05) printing below the $27–37M guide floor, or the RXO Curve spot index rolling over. |
| TNK | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $100.92 | Teekay Tankers’ record freight earnings underpin a continuation thesis requiring third-quarter rates to meet July booking benchmarks before a weekly close below $100.83. The next earnings report tests that persistence; its publication date remains unconfirmed. | A weekly close below $100.83 invalidates retention of the 2026-09-11 adjusted high; third-quarter realized Suezmax or Aframax/LR2 spot rates below the July booking benchmarks separately break the earnings-persistence case. |
| TRMD | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $38.23 | TORM plc’s freight-earnings story supports a conditional move to Evercore ISI’s $38 target, reported on 2026-08-27. The case succeeds at a daily close at or above $38 before a daily close below the 2026-09-11 reference close of $35.08 invalidates it. | A daily close below $35.08 ends the continuation thesis by losing the 2026-09-11 adjusted reference close and 52-week high; this is a momentum condition, not an established support shelf. |
| XPO | HELD | Dominant Narrative | $174.25 | XPO, Inc.'s shipment-and-margin thesis failed its price test when the 2026-09-18 weekly close of $174.25 breached $185. The 2026-10-29 results still test shipment growth and management's guidance for an adjusted less-than-truckload operating ratio below 81%. | A weekly close below $185 invalidates the September price thesis; the 2026-09-18 close of $174.25 has met that condition. Separately, a Q3 2026 adjusted less-than-truckload operating ratio of 81% or higher would fail management's 2026-07-30 guidance. |
GPU cloud & neoclouds
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRWV | MEDIUM | Dominant Narrative | $81.36 | Post-print repricing is holding but fading: the 2026-08-12 gap to $107.73 is unfilled after closes of $106.29 and $105.26, RSI 71.1. Q2 printed $128M adjusted operating income against a $30–90M guide, and the $2.6B facility closed 2026-08-10 at SOFR+5.50% partly answers the funding question — with ~5-year paper against ~3-year contracts. NVIDIA's 2026-08-26 print sets the… | A daily close below $93.65 fills the 2026-08-12 gap and gives back the 200-day mark measured 2026-08-10; secondarily, FY26 adjusted operating income trimmed from the $960M–$1.15B guide, or a new facility priced materially wider than the SOFR+5.50% struck on 2026-08-10. |
| IREN | MEDIUM | Legacy Pivot | $46.68 | IREN Limited’s recovery rests on converting contracted AI cloud capacity into operating revenue by 2026-12-31. Management’s $4 billion operating-ARR target settles the conversion case, while a weekly close below $35 invalidates the recovery structure. | A weekly close below $35 breaks the recovery structure anchored by the 2026-08-28 market close of $35.45. Separately, postponement of the 2026-12-31 deadline or operating ARR below management’s $4 billion target for that date defeats the conversion case. |
| RUM | LOW | Legacy Pivot | $9.09 | The sell-the-news break is now confirmed: RUM lost the $6.46–$6.66 100/200-day shelf and closed $5.76 on 2026-07-17, -19% from the post-rebrand tape and within 25% of the $4.62 52-week low. Every moving average is overhead. The 2026-08-10 Q2 print — first consolidated quarter plus the company's first-ever formal guidance — is the only thing that re-rates this. | A weekly close below $5.20 breaks the last shelf before the $4.62 52-week low and confirms the pivot is being repriced as dilution rather than growth; secondarily, a 2026-08-10 Q2 print that misses ~$116.6M consolidated revenue or pairs it with soft maiden guidance removes the last dated re-rate on the board. |
Housing, homebuilders & proptech
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BXC | LOW | Picks & Shovels | $74.17 | BlueLinx's specialty-margin re-rating depends on Trex execution and price repair. Completed initial stocking followed by a weekly close above $84 would resolve the recovery case; a weekly close below $72 would invalidate it. | A weekly close below $72 ends the repair case beneath the $72.68 post-results reference close; third-quarter specialty gross margin at or below 18.0% alongside adjusted EBITDA excluding duty benefits below $28.4 million would also break the operating thesis. |
| CXW | MEDIUM | Dominant Narrative | $35.23 | CoreCivic's facility sales support a real-estate monetization thesis; another completed sale by third-quarter results must confirm its next leg while operating contracts remain intact. A weekly close below $31 invalidates the price thesis. | A weekly close below $31 invalidates the price thesis; independently, no additional completed facility sale by the Q3 2026 report, provisionally ~2026-11-04, ends the next-sale case, as would loss of a management contract at a sold facility. |
| FLXS | LOW | Legacy Pivot | $79.69 | Flexsteel Industries’ operating-turnaround thesis requires a weekly close above $84.20 before a weekly close below $79.69. These are the high and reference close in the September 18, 2026 market snapshot; weaker quarterly margins limit confidence in continuation. | A weekly close below $79.69 invalidates the continuation thesis by losing the September 18, 2026 adjusted reference close before a weekly close above the reported $84.20 high; $79.69 is not a verified support shelf. |
Industrial power & grid
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATEX | HELD | Emergent | $76.99 | Anterix’s utility-spectrum conversion thesis failed its published price test when the 2026-09-18 weekly close of $76.99 breached $85.31. A new utility agreement with disclosed payments and a weekly recovery above $85.31 would support a replacement case. | A weekly close below $85.31 invalidates the published spectrum-conversion thesis; the 2026-09-18 adjusted close of $76.99 has already satisfied this condition. |
| PLPC | MEDIUM | 2nd-Order AI | $412.38 | The July rollover read was voided by the 2026-07-29 Q2 print: sales $212.7M vs $193M consensus, EPS $4.49 vs $2.41, and a ~30% one-session repricing to a new all-time closing high of $480.77 (2026-08-11). Grid/AI-power second-order narrative is accelerating again on reported numbers — with RSI 73.3, the buyback finished, and the next scheduled binary ~10 weeks out. | A weekly close below $415 surrenders the June 2026 all-time high at $414.35 that the post-print gap converted to support, reopening the untraded void down to the $326–$335 pre-print shelf; secondary break is a Q3 2026 print (~2026-10-28 est.) with sales under the $212.7M Q2 bar or gross margin back toward Q1's 31.3%. |
M&A & special situations
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APGE | SUPREME | Binary Catalyst | $135.07 | Apogee Therapeutics’ $135.11-per-share cash-acquisition thesis resolved with AbbVie’s completion on 2026-09-03. The 2026-09-14 Form 15 advances administrative closure, leaving no unresolved APGE acquisition catalyst. | A daily close below $130 was the historical acquisition-thesis break condition. The final supplied close was $135.07 on 2026-09-02; completion on 2026-09-03 and Nasdaq suspension on 2026-09-04 leave no prospective APGE close to grade. |
| ATAI | SUPREME | Binary Catalyst | $7.35 | AtaiBeckley's Lilly acquisition thesis resolved with completion on 2026-09-11, ending the pending-merger case. Remaining contingent payments depend on disclosed clinical and regulatory milestones; Nasdaq suspended ATAI effective 2026-09-14. | A weekly close below $6.75 was the pre-completion thesis-break condition. The 2026-09-11 merger completion and 2026-09-14 Nasdaq suspension retired that test; no live ATAI closing-price trigger remains. |
| ATKR | HIGH | Binary Catalyst | $94.32 | Atkore's $95.00 cash-merger thesis now turns on the October 7 shareholder vote and remaining approvals after September 14 US antitrust clearance. Completion before a weekly close below $88 constitutes success; termination negates the case. | A weekly close below $88 invalidates the merger-completion price structure; a disclosed termination or definitive regulatory prohibition independently ends the case. |
| CBZ | HIGH | Binary Catalyst | $54.63 | CBIZ’s signed $55.00 cash merger makes completion the central thesis; closing settles the case, while a daily close below $52 invalidates it. The expected 2026-09-10 antitrust milestone has elapsed, but its outcome and a shareholder-vote date remain unverified. | A daily close below $52 invalidates the merger-completion thesis; a filing announcing termination of the 2026-07-28 agreement or shareholder rejection independently breaks the case. |
| DSGR | SUPREME | Binary Catalyst | $34.83 | Distribution Solutions Group’s $35.00 cash acquisition remains a completion thesis, with the minority vote and closing settling the case. HSR clearance occurred on 2026-08-20; a daily close below $33.50 invalidates the price thesis. | A daily close below $33.50 invalidates the completion-price thesis; an announced merger termination or failed required shareholder vote separately defeats the contractual case. |
| FA | MEDIUM | Legacy Pivot | $20.72 | Aug 6 flipped the frame: Q2 revenue $448.8M/+14.9% vs $415.0M consensus, adj EPS $0.35 vs $0.28, and the first FY guide raise of the cycle ($1.67–1.71B). Needham upgraded to Buy/$28, RBC to $24 — targets moved above spot for the first time. A second leg on a labour-cyclical base that is still decelerating; the next test is payrolls, not the company. | A weekly close below $22 returns price inside the pre-print July range ($19.91–$22.49) and negates the Aug 6 earnings breakout; base revenue growth printing under 6.7% or a trimmed FY revenue range at the Q3 report would confirm the labour-cycle drag reaching the volume base. |
| HZO | HIGH | Binary Catalyst | $52.56 | MarineMax’s $53.00-per-share cash merger prices completion of the Safe Harbor transaction on the announced end-2026 timetable. Closing would settle the case; a weekly close below $50, termination or failure to complete by 2026-12-31 would invalidate it. | A weekly close below $50 invalidates the merger-completion thesis; transaction termination or failure to complete by 2026-12-31 independently defeats the stated timetable case. |
| ITGR | HIGH | Binary Catalyst | $126.28 | Integer Holdings Corporation’s $127.00 cash acquisition by KKR remains a completion thesis, strengthened by the 2026-09-03 merger proxy. Completion by year-end 2026 would settle the case; a daily close below the published invalidation level invalidates it. | A daily close below the published invalidation level invalidates the completion thesis; a disclosed termination or company announcement moving completion beyond year-end 2026 would independently contradict the case. |
Managed care & health services
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASTH | MEDIUM | Emergent | $34.36 | Astrana Health’s full-risk care story depends on meeting Q3 revenue and profit guidance while preserving its raised annual profit outlook. That operational result must arrive before a weekly close below $34 invalidates the recovery thesis. | A weekly close below $34 invalidates the recovery thesis; Q3 revenue below $1.000 billion accompanied by a reduction in FY2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $255–280 million independently breaks the operating case. |
| AVAH | MEDIUM | Legacy Pivot | $13.67 | Aveanna Healthcare’s earnings recovery supports further revaluation if its next report raises annual adjusted EBITDA guidance above the greater-than-$365 million outlook set on 2026-08-13. A weekly close below $11.75 or an unchanged or reduced outlook would invalidate that case. | A weekly close below $11.75 loses the August 2026 secondary-offering price and invalidates the structural thesis; maintaining or reducing the greater-than-$365 million fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook at the next quarterly report separately ends the guidance-raise case. |
| CNC | HELD | Binary Catalyst | $65.11 | Centene's margin-repair case requires sustained earnings guidance and a weekly close above $68.72 by its 2026-10-27 results. September's reaffirmation supports the earnings leg, but a weekly close below $65 or withdrawal or reduction of fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance above $4.80 invalidates the case. | A weekly close below $65 ends the September continuation thesis. Withdrawal or reduction of fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS guidance above $4.80 independently breaks the fundamental case; failure to record a weekly close above $68.72 by 2026-10-27 ends the time-bounded thesis. |
| FIGS | MEDIUM | Emergent | $13.06 | The post-print shelf resolved upward: the 2026-08-28 close of $15.42 sits 8.1% above the 2026-08-07 mark of $14.26 and 9.9% under the $17.12 52-week high, with no company-dated news since the 2026-08-07 target revisions. The re-rating off the 2026-08-06 Q2 beat and the raise to a $757.318M FY2026 guide now runs on flow until the Q3 print (~2026-11-05, est.) tests margin… | A weekly close below $14.00 gives back the entire 2026-08-07 to 2026-08-21 shelf ($14.26–$14.68) and reopens the unfilled 2026-08-06 gap toward roughly $11; secondarily, any trim to the $757.318M FY2026 revenue guide or the 14.8–15.0% adjusted EBITDA margin outlook at the Q3 print (~2026-11-05, est.). |
| HNGE | HELD | Dominant Narrative | $94.90 | Digital-MSK profitability re-rate broke out in May and was pushed into open price discovery by the 2026-06-09 mid-quarter raise (Q2 to $200–202M, +45%; FY26 to $818–824M). But nine sell-side target hikes in two weeks plus accelerating insider selling mark a late, distribution-prone phase, with no company catalyst until the ~2026-08-04 Q2 print. | A weekly close below $58 forfeits the June breakout above the $62.18 prior ATH and drops the tape back into its nine-month range; secondary breaks are the digital-MSK theme rolling to saturated or the ~2026-08-04 Q2 print landing under the raised $200–202M revenue floor. |
| HUM | HELD | Dominant Narrative | $386.00 | Humana's Medicare Advantage margin-recovery story faces a renewed price test: an adjusted daily close above $409.80 before a daily close below $383. The September 1, 2026 earnings reaffirmation supports stability, while October Star Ratings test the quality-bonus premise. | A daily close below $383 invalidates the renewed continuation thesis at the price boundary retained from the September 11, 2026 dossier; a reduction in the September 1 full-year adjusted EPS floor of $9.00 would separately break the earnings-stability premise. |
| JILL | LOW | Emergent | $23.94 | J.Jill's post-earnings continuation thesis failed when the 2026-09-18 weekly close of $23.94 breached its published $24.08 threshold. Third-quarter results must separately confirm management's projected sales acceleration. | A weekly close below $24.08 before a weekly close at or above BTIG's September 9 target of $25 ends the continuation thesis. This condition was met on 2026-09-18 with the adjusted close of $23.94; the original threshold remains unchanged. |
| LFST | MEDIUM | Legacy Pivot | $12.57 | LifeStance Health's margin recovery faces a repeatability test after September's shareholder offering: Q3 must meet August guidance and the annual outlook must hold. A weekly close below $11.00 invalidates the market thesis. | A weekly close below $11.00 invalidates the margin-recovery market thesis. Separately, Q3 revenue below $420 million, adjusted EBITDA below $49 million, or a reduction in FY2026 adjusted-EBITDA guidance of $215–235 million breaks the operating case. |
| OSCR | HELD | Binary Catalyst | $32.13 | Oscar Health's higher earnings outlook and quantified 2027 pricing support a post-Investor-Day rerating. A weekly close above $32.76 before a weekly close below $29.83 would complete the price-confirmation test; the September 18, 2026 close of $32.13 leaves it unresolved. | A weekly close below $29.83 breaks the post-August 6, 2026 earnings structure. Before price confirmation, reduced 2026 operating-earnings guidance below $600 million or a medical loss ratio forecast above 82.0% also ends the case. |
| PAYS | LOW | Emergent | $12.34 | Paysign’s patient-affordability expansion can sustain its August re-rating if Q3 meets revenue and program guidance and retains the full-year outlook. A weekly close below $11.50 invalidates the market thesis before that confirmation. | A weekly close below $11.50 invalidates the August re-rating thesis. Separately, a reported active-program count at or below 160 for 2026-09-30 breaks the operating case against management’s 165–170 guidance. |
| PGNY | MEDIUM | Legacy Pivot | $27.13 | Progyny’s distribution expansion supports a recovery toward Citizens’ $33 target; Q3 revenue tests whether demand stabilizes. A weekly close below $24 or Q3 revenue at or below $335 million would invalidate the recovery case. | A weekly close below $24 breaks the June support shelf and invalidates the recovery case. Independently, Q3 2026 revenue at or below $335 million or another reduction to the full-year revenue guidance issued on 2026-08-06 defeats the stabilization premise. |
| RHI | LOW | Legacy Pivot | $37.38 | White-collar staffing in secular decline: Q2 EPS collapsed to $0.26 (2026-07-23) as AI automation and a frozen hiring market gut permanent-placement demand. The >5% dividend yield reads as a value-trap signal rather than a floor. No accelerating long narrative; a cyclical bounce needs labor data to turn first. | A weekly close below $36 confirms the secular staffing downtrend and kills any cyclical-bounce thesis, opening a slide toward Goldman's $29 Sell target; a dividend cut would seal the value-trap read. |
| STLN | MEDIUM | Legacy Pivot | $6.96 | Starling Oncology’s oncology-risk contracts support a margin-expansion thesis that the next quarterly results must confirm. Third-quarter adjusted EBITDA within management’s $500,000–$1.5 million range and maintained full-year guidance would satisfy the immediate test; a weekly close below $5.25 invalidates the price structure. | A weekly close below $5.25 breaks the consolidation reference identified on 2026-09-05; a reduction in FY2026 revenue guidance of $650–670 million or adjusted EBITDA guidance of $2–7 million, or a reported medical loss ratio above 90%, also breaks the operating thesis. |
| TNET | LOW | Binary Catalyst | $67.29 | TriNet Group’s margin recovery depends on Q3 insurance costs holding below 89.5% without July’s nonrecurring benefit. The case resolves positively if FY2026 earnings and revenue guidance also hold before a weekly close below $65 invalidates it. | A weekly close below $65 invalidates the remaining margin-recovery price structure. Independently, Q3 insurance cost ratio at or above 89.5%, higher FY insurance-cost guidance, or FY revenue guidance below $4.75 billion breaks the fundamental case. |
Medtech & diagnostics
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADPT | MEDIUM | Emergent | $28.61 | clonoSEQ MRD pure-play inflecting to self-funding growth (MRD rev +53% YoY, profitability turning); June 15 Immune Medicine separation adds a value-unlock leg. But the tape just broke to fresh 52-wk highs (~$22.92) above the $20–22 sell-side band, running into a binary July 29 Q2 print — extension plus imminent earnings, not a clean fresh entry. | A weekly close below $18 loses the rising 20-week base and the June–July breakout shelf above the old $20–22 sell-side band; a push-out of the positive end-2026 adjusted-EBITDA/FCF target on the July 29 print, or the theme flipping to saturated, would confirm the inflection break. |
| ATRC | MEDIUM | Dominant Narrative | $58.10 | AtriCure’s profitability and clinical-expansion story now has to sustain its re-rating after September 21 index inclusion. A weekly close at or above Needham’s $64 target would complete the price case; a weekly close below $47 would invalidate it. | A weekly close below $47 invalidates the September announcement leg. Separately, a reduction in fiscal 2026 revenue guidance below the $602 million lower bound issued on 2026-07-23 would break the operating rationale. |
| BBNX | MEDIUM | Binary Catalyst | $21.89 | Beta Bionics’ new case is Mint commercialization after the September revenue cut broke the iLet growth thesis. Full U.S. launch within management’s Q1 2027 window would confirm the case; a weekly close below $17.25 would invalidate it. | A weekly close below $17.25, the common-stock offering price announced on 2026-09-15, invalidates the renewed market thesis; full U.S. Mint commercialization slipping beyond Q1 2027 independently breaks the launch case. |
| CDNA | MEDIUM | Binary Catalyst | $53.83 | CareDx’s reimbursement repricing depends on its next quarterly report sustaining the $490–500 million revenue outlook issued on 2026-07-30. Canaccord’s 2026-09-02 initiation renewed attention, but a weekly close below $44 would invalidate the continuation case. | A weekly close below $44 invalidates the post-reimbursement continuation case by losing the August $46.69–$48.61 band. Separately, FY2026 revenue guidance reduced below $490 million or a published MolDX restriction narrowing surveillance coverage breaks the operating premise. |
| EMBC | LOW | Legacy Pivot | $5.29 | Embecta Corp.’s earnings-and-debt recovery story needs price confirmation after the September retreat. A weekly close above the September 2 reference close of $5.69 would satisfy the recovery case; a weekly close below $4.60 would invalidate it. | A weekly close below $4.60 ends the recovery thesis at its previously published price boundary; fiscal 2026 revenue below $1.015 billion or adjusted earnings per share below $1.80 would separately break the operating case. |
| HAE | MEDIUM | Legacy Pivot | $108.42 | Haemonetics’ CSL agreement supports a plasma-recovery thesis, but November must supply a quantified revenue contribution and transition timetable. Citi’s September 17 upgrade strengthens analyst support; a weekly close below $91 invalidates the supporting price structure. | A weekly close below $91 invalidates the August CSL-disclosure gap structure near the 2026-08-14 close of $90.80; secondarily, the November 2026 results call providing neither a quantified positive fiscal 2027 CSL revenue contribution nor a center-transition timetable breaks the near-term monetization thesis. |
| HTFL | MEDIUM | Dominant Narrative | $50.75 | Heartflow’s diagnostic revenue growth supports a continuation thesis after its August guidance increase. A weekly close above the $50.43 reference high would confirm the price leg before a weekly close below $42 invalidates it; the next quarterly report tests whether the raised revenue outlook holds. | A weekly close below $42 invalidates the continuation thesis by surrendering the area around the 2026-08-14 gap-day close of $42.08; a reduction in the $246–250 million revenue or $29–31 million Plaque outlook independently breaks the operating case. |
| INSP | LOW | Binary Catalyst | $76.78 | Inspire Medical Systems' rally prices a recovery from reimbursement disruption. A weekly close at or above Stifel's September 11, 2026 target of $80 would confirm the price case, while a weekly close below the September 11 reference close of $73 would invalidate it. | A weekly close below $73 invalidates the continuation thesis by losing the September 11, 2026 reference close; this is a published price test, not a verified historical support shelf. |
| PLSE | MEDIUM | Binary Catalyst | $53.87 | Pulse Biosciences’ faster trial-enrollment story depends on NANOPULSE-AF completion in early October. An announcement by 2026-10-31 before a weekly close below $44 would validate the schedule thesis; the 2026-09-09 analyst initiation adds attention, not clinical proof. | A weekly close below $44 invalidates the price structure supporting the enrollment-timeline thesis. Independently, no NANOPULSE-AF enrollment-completion announcement by 2026-10-31 invalidates schedule delivery. |
| PRPO | LOW | Emergent | $26.46 | Precipio’s diagnostics growth and renewed operating cash generation support a conditional recovery toward its recorded $32.37 high. A weekly close above that level confirms the price case; a weekly close below the 2026-09-11 reference close of $27.32 invalidates it. | A weekly close below $27.32 invalidates the recovery thesis by losing the 2026-09-11 adjusted reference close; this level is a research boundary, not an established support shelf. |
| PSNL | HIGH | Binary Catalyst | $16.40 | The MRD story has been overtaken by a live sale process: StreetInsider reported 2026-07-17 that Personalis retained Centerview, TD Securities and Cooley after takeover interest from Merck (already a >10% holder and 19% of Q1 revenue) plus two other suitors. Price broke to a $16.39 52-week high; Needham $17 and TD Cowen $18 now sit above the tape. Aug-4 Q2 is the next hard date. | A weekly close below $12.50 fills the July sale-process gap and loses the rising 20-EMA, which would price the strategic review as going nowhere. Secondary: an explicit denial or termination of the review, or an Aug-4 Q2 print showing biopharma-MRD revenue tracking under the ~$20-21M FY run-rate. |
| RCEL | MEDIUM | Emergent | $11.02 | AVITA Medical’s wound-care turnaround depends on meeting its $86–89 million 2026 revenue guide and generating cash in the fourth quarter. Those commitments, announced on 2026-08-06, must become reported results before a weekly close below $9.00 invalidates the thesis. | A weekly close below $9.00 ends the continuation thesis. Secondary invalidation occurs if AVITA cuts 2026 revenue guidance below $86 million, postpones fourth-quarter cash-flow breakeven, or reports no fourth-quarter cash generation. |
| RVTY | MEDIUM | 2nd-Order AI | $143.45 | Revvity’s AI drug-discovery story requires instrument backlog to convert into positive Life Sciences organic growth. The next quarterly report must show that recovery while preserving August’s full-year growth outlook before a weekly close below $116 invalidates the case. | A weekly close below $116 invalidates the recovery thesis; continued negative Life Sciences organic growth at the next quarterly report, or a reduction below the 4–5% FY2026 organic-growth forecast, also breaks the conversion case. |
| SENS | LOW | Emergent | $9.58 | Only year-long implantable CGM, clinically de-risked at ADA 2026 with revenue +71.9% YoY TTM — and the tape has spent six weeks grinding back toward the $4.79 post-catalyst low ($5.11 on Jul 17). Accelerating fundamentals against a broken price structure; the Aug 5 Q2 print, with cash burn and dilution the swing factor, is the next real test. | A weekly close below $4.79 breaks the June post-ADA low and confirms the dilution-spiral leg lower; a secondary confirmation would be the Aug 5 Q2 print showing burn accelerating with no breakeven path. An upside flip requires reclaiming and holding the 50-day on expanding volume. |
| SIBN | MEDIUM | Emergent | $18.09 | SI-BONE’s surgical-device growth and improving adjusted profitability underpin a recovery case above the August shelf. A weekly close above $21.40 would confirm renewed strength before a weekly close below $17 invalidates it; the September 14 conference is the next confirmed company event. | A weekly close below $17 breaks the $17.05 shelf reclaimed after the 2026-08-03 results; separately, third-quarter revenue declining more than the guided 1–2% sequentially or a cut to the $231–233 million fiscal-2026 outlook invalidates the operating case. |
| SOPH | MEDIUM | 2nd-Order AI | $8.19 | SOPHiA GENETICS' cloud-genomics expansion thesis requires renewed strength above the $8.92 market high and another revenue-guidance increase at Q3 results, estimated for 2026-11-03. A weekly close below $6.84 invalidates the price thesis; unchanged or lower FY2026 guidance would fail the operating test. | A weekly close below $6.84 loses the 2026-08-04 post-results reference close; separately, Q3 results estimated for 2026-11-03 that leave FY2026 revenue guidance at $94–96 million or lower, or report net dollar retention below 110%, invalidate the operating case. |
| TEM | LOW | Picks & Shovels | $77.84 | Tempus AI's proposed Personalis acquisition supports a cancer-vaccine sequencing recovery thesis. A daily close above the August 21 reference close of $72.69 would confirm the price case before a weekly close below $58 invalidates it; commercial revenue from the clinical read-through remains unproven. | A weekly close below $58 breaks the pre-catalyst shelf identified in the September 5 published dossier and invalidates the recovery thesis; termination of the Personalis merger would separately remove its proposed commercial route. |
| TXG | HELD | Legacy Pivot | $76.60 | 10x Genomics' Atera recovery now needs deliveries and revenue confirmation after clearing its earlier price hurdle. Approximately 40 second-half 2026 shipments and full-year revenue of $610–630 million would substantiate the case before a weekly close below $58.57 invalidates the structure. | A weekly close below $58.57 breaks the August shelf retained in the September 11, 2026 analysis; deferral of the disclosed second-half Atera shipment plan into 2027 would separately undermine the operating case. |
| VREX | HIGH | Binary Catalyst | $18.49 | Varex Imaging Corporation’s $18.90 cash acquisition by Teledyne remains a completion thesis. The 2026-09-08 preliminary proxy advances the process; payment resolves the case, while a daily close below $17.50 invalidates it. | A daily close below $17.50 invalidates the completion-price thesis, retaining the research threshold published on 2026-09-03; it does not by itself establish that the merger has terminated. |
| WGS | LOW | Binary Catalyst | $101.10 | Busted-growth genomics name; the recovery off the −49% May guide-cut crash has stalled in the low-$60s, below the $74.83 200-day. The confirmed Aug 3 Q2 print (blended ARR vs the ~$3,300 baseline) is the binary — the same day as the class-action lead-plaintiff deadline. Mean-reversion into an event, not a fresh accelerating leg; the setup does not clear ahead of the print. | A weekly close below $52 breaks the June recovery shelf and the rising 50-day near $56.56, reopening the path to the $32.21 May low; a Q2 blended ARR (Aug 3) below ~$3,300 confirms the busted-growth regime. |
Mega-cap AI platforms
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| META | MEDIUM | Dominant Narrative | $665.75 | Meta Platforms’ AI monetisation story gained a consumer product with Muse’s 2026-09-08 launch. Disclosed external AI revenue or contract value by the 2026-10-28 results would validate the commercial leg; a weekly close below $545 would invalidate the price structure first. | A weekly close below $545 breaks the structural threshold published on 2026-09-03; alternatively, the 2026-10-28 results passing without disclosed external AI revenue, an annualised revenue run rate or a signed external contract value ends the dated monetisation case. |
Nuclear & uranium
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VST | MEDIUM | 2nd-Order AI | $140.67 | Vistra's AI-power scarcity story now depends on PJM's September procurement proceeding and a weekly close above the June resistance shelf near $153. A weekly close below $135.66 invalidates the price-repair case. | A weekly close below $135.66 breaks the 2026-08-24 through 2026-09-01 compression floor and invalidates September's price repair. Failure to obtain regulatory acceptance in time for PJM's proposed 2026-09-30 opening separately invalidates the near-term catalyst case. |
Oil, energy & geopolitical
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AMR | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $174.22 | Alpha Metallurgical Resources’ coal-supply-shock thesis requires stronger third-quarter realized pricing before August support breaks. Realization above the second quarter’s $118.71 per short ton would confirm transmission; a daily close below the published invalidation level invalidates the price-supported case. | A daily close below the published invalidation level breaks the August support associated with the 2026-08-24 close of $209.93; third-quarter Met-segment net realization at or below $118.71 per short ton separately fails the pricing-transmission thesis. |
| CMBT | MEDIUM | Legacy Pivot | $20.29 | CMB.TECH's vessel-disposal and cash-return story supports further upside if the proposed October distribution is delivered. The case requires payment of $0.64 per share and a weekly close above $20.41 by 2026-10-31, before a weekly close below $17.20; rejection, reduction or postponement of the distribution also breaks it. | A weekly close below $17.20 breaks the post-results advance near the 2026-08-14 close of $17.24; rejection or reduction of the proposed $0.64-per-share distribution, or payment postponed beyond October 2026, also invalidates the cash-return thesis. |
| CVI | MEDIUM | Dominant Narrative | $53.69 | CVR Energy’s refining thesis is that Hormuz disruption lifts reported margins above second-quarter 2026’s $9.94 per throughput barrel. Third-quarter results test that inference; a weekly close below $39 invalidates the price structure. | A weekly close below $39 invalidates the continuation thesis beneath the August breakout shelf identified in the September 7 analysis; separately, third-quarter 2026 refining margin at or below second-quarter 2026’s $9.94 per throughput barrel rejects the expected operational improvement. |
| DINO | MEDIUM | Dominant Narrative | $115.90 | HF Sinclair’s refining-margin and separation story now has fresh UBS support. The case requires the next quarterly report to sustain second-quarter adjusted refinery gross margin of $25.95 per produced barrel sold on comparable throughput, with the separation timetable intact, before a daily close below the published invalidation level invalidates it. | A daily close below the published invalidation level ends the thesis, placing the market beneath the $97.32 shelf identified on 2026-08-21; sequentially lower adjusted refinery gross margin on comparable throughput would also contradict the operating case. |
| DK | MEDIUM | Dominant Narrative | $78.12 | Delek US's refining recovery supports the August breakout, but September's distillate build weakens the scarcity leg. Q3 throughput and expense delivery must confirm the earnings case before a weekly close below $64 invalidates the structure. | A weekly close below $64 breaks the August breakout structure; separately, Q3 throughput below 296,000 barrels per day, operating expenses above $230 million, or an optimization run-rate objective reduced below $220 million invalidates the operating case. |
| FTK | MEDIUM | Legacy Pivot | $31.40 | Legacy oilfield chemistry re-rating into a power/measurement business: Data Analytics hit 51% of gross profit in Q2 2026, the 2026-08-03 PREPA award adds ~$400M of 10-year expected backlog, and the 2026-08-04 guide went to $340–350M from $270–290M. Both catalysts have printed, RSI(14) is 71.5 and consensus PT $36.92 sits at spot. | A weekly close below $28 un-prices the 2026-08-03 PREPA award and the 2026-08-04 guidance raise; secondary break is the Q4 2026 PREPA equipment-deployment window closing with no equipment in service, or a FY2026 revenue guide trim at the ~2026-11-03 Q3 print. |
| GPRK | LOW | Binary Catalyst | $11.04 | GeoPark's Venezuela redevelopment deal creates a revaluation case. A weekly close above the $11.97 reference high would confirm the price thesis before a weekly close below the September 11 reference close of $11.48 invalidates it. | A weekly close below $11.48 invalidates the continuation thesis by losing the adjusted market reference close dated 2026-09-11; this is a reference-price condition, not a verified support shelf. |
| HP | MEDIUM | Picks & Shovels | $40.91 | Helmerich & Payne’s crude-led drilling recovery needs fourth-quarter rig activity and margins to meet guidance and adjusted earnings to turn positive. Those results would confirm the operating case; a weekly close below $40 invalidates the market thesis. | A weekly close below $40 ends the market thesis at the research boundary published on 2026-09-04; fiscal fourth-quarter North America direct margin below the $245 million guidance floor independently breaks the operating case. |
| MPC | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $424.89 | Record refining cracks are already in the tape: Q2 R&M margin $36.33/bbl vs $17.58 YoY and a 29% EPS beat on 2026-08-04, yet the stock closed 2026-08-07 at $298.20 — RSI 37.3, 6.7% under the $319.76 high — while six desks raised targets after the move. Saturated narrative, no company catalyst until the ~Nov Q3 print. | A weekly close below $285 confirms the July–August distribution — price would then sit more than 10% under the $319.76 52-week high, with the refining-margin theme already saturated and no company catalyst before the ~2026-11-03 Q3 print. |
| PBF | MEDIUM | Dominant Narrative | $77.19 | PBF Energy’s new high prices in sustained refining profits; Q3 adjusted earnings of at least $6.22 per share would confirm the case unless a weekly close below $75.48 first breaks the breakout. | A weekly close below $75.48 reverses the breakout above the adjusted series’ former 52-week high reported on 2026-09-04; Q3 adjusted earnings below the Q2 result of $6.22 per share would independently reject the earnings case. |
| PSX | MEDIUM | Dominant Narrative | $273.13 | Phillips 66’s repricing depends on exceptional refining margins persisting into Q3 2026. The case plays out if Q3 realized refining margin reaches at least Q2’s $24.08 per barrel before a weekly close below $239 invalidates it. | A weekly close below $239 ends the continuation thesis; the reference is Wells Fargo’s 2026-08-06 analyst target, not verified chart support. Q3 realized refining margin below $24.08 per barrel would separately fail the operating persistence test. |
| PTEN | LOW | Legacy Pivot | $11.78 | Rig-reactivation cyclical is basing, not broken: June averaged 95 US rigs (vs ~90 Q2 guide), the July EIA STEO lifted 2026 Henry Hub to $3.67, gas rigs turned up 122→126, and Piper upgraded to Overweight 07-14. Price bottomed $8.57 (07-01) and bounced to $9.78 — but nothing is reclaimed until $10.50. Q2 print 07-30 is the binary. | A weekly close below $8.57 breaks the early-July low and confirms the downtrend rather than a base; secondary: the 2026-07-30 Q2 call cuts the 100-rig year-end path while US gas rigs roll back under 120. |
| SSL | MEDIUM | Dominant Narrative | $13.72 | Sasol Limited’s operating recovery supports price continuation after its 2026-09-01 results. A weekly close above the $14.65 annual high recorded on 2026-09-11 completes the case; a weekly close below that day’s $14.59 reference close invalidates it. | A weekly close below $14.59 invalidates the immediate continuation thesis by losing the 2026-09-11 adjusted reference close; this is a defined assessment threshold, not an established support shelf. |
| UGP | MEDIUM | Legacy Pivot | $7.58 | Ultrapar’s Ipiranga earnings and reported stake-sale talks underpin a further re-rating. A weekly close at or above UBS’s 2026-09-04 target of $7.90 would confirm the price case; a weekly close below $5.80 or confirmed termination of the sale process without agreement would invalidate it. | A weekly close below $5.80 invalidates the continuation case; this published research threshold coincides with Goldman Sachs’ 2026-08-26 target. Confirmed termination of the Ipiranga sale process without agreement separately breaks the transaction leg. |
| VLO | MEDIUM | Dominant Narrative | $413.28 | Refiner crack spreads at a record ~$70/bbl 3-2-1 as a Hormuz/Iran supply shock idles ~10% of global refining; VLO is the pure-play margin leverage and the fundamental leg is accelerating. But sell-side (6 PT raises in 11 days) and CNBC have caught up, the name is extended, and the Q2 print lands now — the setup clears on a pullback, not a chase at peak coverage. | A weekly close below $280 (loses the July geopolitical-breakout shelf and the rising 20-week EMA), or the 3-2-1 crack spread mean-reverting back under ~$45 from its record ~$70 as offline refining capacity returns online. |
Oncology & immunology
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCTH | MEDIUM | Emergent | $16.11 | Delcath Systems’ self-funded liver-treatment expansion must sustain its raised revenue outlook. Confirmation requires maintained $104–108 million guidance at the next quarterly report and a weekly close above $17.36 before a weekly close below $14.00. | A weekly close below $14.00 invalidates the commercial-expansion price thesis; guidance below the $104 million FY2026 revenue floor announced on 2026-08-06 separately breaks its operating premise. |
| IMMX | LOW | Binary Catalyst | $12.50 | Immix Biopharma’s NXC-201 story hinges on late-September data extending the reported 95% response rate across more patients. Confirmation requires that update by 2026-09-30 before a weekly close below $11.00; company language does not establish a firm 2026 application deadline. | A weekly close below $11.00 ends the market case; secondary invalidation is an expanded-cohort CR rate below the 2026-05-21 reported 95%, a disclosed treatment-related death or clinical hold, or no clinical update by 2026-09-30. |
| INBX | LOW | Binary Catalyst | $109.35 | Inhibrx Biosciences’ advance prices HexAgon clinical success and a Phase 3 start within the guided quarter. The 2026-09-08 results and September start confirmation test that case; a weekly close below $104 or reported primary-endpoint failure invalidates it. | A weekly close below $104 breaks the August shelf defined by the 2026-08-21 and 2026-08-24 market closes; independently, reported failure on the prespecified primary endpoint in the 2026-09-08 HexAgon results ends the clinical thesis. |
| IOVA | MEDIUM | Dominant Narrative | $10.25 | Iovance Biotherapeutics' Amtagvi ramp supports a higher 2026 revenue outlook; a company-issued range above $350–370 million by 2026-09-30 would confirm it. An unchanged range or a missed update deadline would invalidate the revision thesis. | A weekly close below $7.00 invalidates the commercial-revision thesis; independently, an update retaining or lowering the $350–370 million FY2026 revenue range, or no update by 2026-09-30, removes its fundamental leg. |
| KURA | LOW | Binary Catalyst | $11.73 | The binary already fired: KOMZIFTI's 2025-11-13 approval and ~40% R/R NPM1 share are priced, and the $24–28 targets need a frontline Phase 3 that doesn't read until 2028. The tape is drifting — $10.39, lower third of the H1 range. A maturing special-situation biotech in a two-year catalyst gap; the ~2026-08-06 Q2 print is the next real read, not an accelerating setup. | A weekly close below $9.50 breaks the post-approval consolidation base and loses the rising 200-day; confirmed if the ~2026-08-06 Q2 print shows KOMZIFTI revenue stalling near Q1's $5.8M, or the menin-inhibitor class flips to saturated as revumenib and bleximenib take frontline share. |
| NVCT | MEDIUM | Emergent | $22.00 | Nuvectis Pharma’s expanded-pipeline valuation depends on US development of its Haisco compounds. The case requires announced IND submissions for both assets and a weekly close above the $28.53 trailing high by 2026-12-31, before a weekly close below $20.00 invalidates it. | A weekly close below $20.00, the public offering price announced on 2026-06-29, invalidates the market thesis; separately, 2026-12-31 passing without announced US IND submissions for both NXP100 and NXP200 leaves the execution case unmet. |
| SMMT | MEDIUM | Binary Catalyst | $17.85 | Summit Therapeutics’ ivonescimab thesis is that quantified survival evidence converts into US approval by 2026-11-14 before a weekly close below $15.00. September’s disclosures strengthen the clinical case, but the global trial’s primary survival miss leaves regulatory uncertainty. | A weekly close below $15.00 ends the market thesis; an FDA complete response letter or an extension beyond the 2026-11-14 decision date separately defeats the on-time approval case. |
| VSTM | MEDIUM | Binary Catalyst | $7.44 | Verastem’s commercial launch supports a VS-7375 clinical revaluation thesis, tested by the newly scheduled 2026-10-14 efficacy update. The case requires reported tumor responses and a daily close above the 2026-09-02 reference close of $8.02 before a weekly close below $6.70 invalidates it. | A weekly close below $6.70 breaks the post-Q2 price structure; 2026-10-14 passing without the promised VS-7375 efficacy disclosure separately invalidates the scheduled-catalyst premise. |
| XNCR | LOW | Binary Catalyst | $24.72 | Xencor’s post-settlement re-rating depends on October XmAb819 data supporting a pivotal-dose choice and the planned 2027 study. A weekly close below $23.34 or withdrawal of that timetable invalidates the continuation case. | A weekly close below $23.34 invalidates continuation beyond the market’s 2026-08-14 former-high close; independently, October XmAb819 disclosures abandoning pivotal-dose selection or postponing the planned study start beyond 2027 break the clinical case. |
| ZLAB | MEDIUM | Binary Catalyst | $25.70 | Zai Lab's global drug-development re-rating depends on October's zoci data leading to first-line lung-cancer Phase 3 initiation by 2026-12-31. The case requires those milestones before a weekly close below $22; the partnered ALKIVIA readout already occurred on 2026-08-17. | A weekly close below $22 invalidates the pre-data price structure; failure to present the promised first-line zoci dataset by 2026-10-27 or initiate the planned registrational Phase 3 by 2026-12-31 separately breaks the development thesis. |
Precision biotech & therapeutics
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABCL | MEDIUM | Binary Catalyst | $12.63 | AbCellera's monthly hot-flash antibody thesis requires the 2026-10-01 presentation to preserve the Phase 2 efficacy case and a subsequent weekly close above $12.73; a weekly close below $9.75 invalidates it. | A weekly close below $9.75 breaches the 2026-08-12 offering reference and ends the post-readout price thesis; a company disclosure contradicting the reported efficacy endpoints or pausing ABCL635 development for safety independently breaks the clinical case. |
| AMLX | LOW | Binary Catalyst | $32.41 | Amylyx Pharmaceuticals’ avexitide story now depends on a year-end 2026 NDA submission and recovery above the $35.50 offering price. An announced submission and a weekly close above that level complete the case; a weekly close below $30 invalidates it. | A weekly close below $30 ends the post-readout market thesis; separately, submission guidance moving into 2027 or no announced avexitide NDA submission by 2026-12-31 breaks the regulatory timetable. |
| AQST | MEDIUM | Binary Catalyst | $4.61 | Aquestive Therapeutics' recovery thesis rests on an Anaphylm resubmission by 2026-09-30, following its August usability results. A filing announcement before a weekly close below $4.47 would satisfy the near-term case; missing the deadline would invalidate its timing premise. | A weekly close below $4.47, the historical 200-day moving-average reference reported on 2026-09-04, breaks the recovery thesis; separately, 2026-09-30 passing without an announced Anaphylm NDA resubmission invalidates the timing premise. |
| ASMB | LOW | Binary Catalyst | $24.97 | Assembly Biosciences confirmed its Gilead profit-share option on 2026-09-08, but its momentum thesis failed at the September 11 close below $30. The remaining development case requires GS-1179 to enter Phase 2 by year-end 2026; a disclosed delay into 2027 would invalidate that timetable. | A weekly close below $30 invalidates the published momentum thesis; this condition was met on 2026-09-11 at $29.80. Separately, a disclosed GS-1179 Phase 2 delay into 2027 would invalidate the year-end development timetable. |
| BMEA | LOW | Binary Catalyst | $1.83 | Biomea Fusion’s icovamenib thesis depends on lasting glucose control after limited treatment. COVALENT-211 must meet its placebo-controlled primary endpoint in the company-guided Q1 2027 window before a weekly close below $1.60 invalidates the market case. | A weekly close below $1.60 ends the recovery thesis at the research threshold published on 2026-09-06; a COVALENT-211 primary-endpoint failure or a delay beyond Q1 2027 also breaks the clinical case. |
| CLYM | LOW | Binary Catalyst | $14.05 | Climb Bio's re-rating depends on Q4 2026 budoprutug patient data establishing clinical benefit. Recovery of the $17.84 adjusted annual high would confirm the price leg; a weekly close below $13.30 or a delay beyond the guided clinical window invalidates the case. | A weekly close below $13.30 breaks the June–July shelf identified in the 2026-09-06 published research; separately, a delay of any guided budoprutug dataset beyond Q4 2026, or the quarter ending without its disclosure, breaks the clinical timetable. |
| CMPS | MEDIUM | Binary Catalyst | $15.19 | Compass Pathways’ September 9 COMP360 durability update renews the regulatory revaluation case ahead of its company-guided Q4 2026 submission. A weekly close above the September 11 series’ $15.17 52-week high would confirm the price thesis; a weekly close below the August 28 close of $13.73 would invalidate it. | A weekly close below $13.73, the August 28, 2026 reference close, invalidates the renewed September price thesis. A company-announced NDA completion delay beyond Q4 2026 separately breaks the regulatory timetable. |
| CRDL | MEDIUM | Binary Catalyst | $1.88 | Cardiol Therapeutics’ enrollment-led re-rating requires MAVERIC completion by 2026-09-30 and a weekly close above $2.29 before a weekly close below $1.75. The 2026-09-10 preliminary shelf introduces financing capacity, but the announcement offered no securities. | A weekly close below $1.75 ends the enrollment-led re-rating thesis; separately, 2026-09-30 passing without confirmation of MAVERIC target enrollment breaks its execution deadline. |
| ETON | MEDIUM | Emergent | $55.50 | Eton Pharmaceuticals’ re-rating rests on repeatable rare-disease product revenue. Confirmation requires third-quarter product sales to match or exceed the $37.568 million reported on 2026-08-13 and annual revenue guidance above $145 million to hold before a weekly close below $52. | A weekly close below $52 invalidates the post-results re-rating thesis; independently, Q3 2026 product revenue below Q2’s reported $37.568 million or reduced guidance for 2026 revenue above $145 million breaks the operating case. |
| EWTX | MEDIUM | Legacy Pivot | $45.32 | Edgewise Therapeutics’ cardiovascular re-rating rests on EDG-7500 entering Phase 3 in Q4 2026 and price expanding above its reference high. Initiation by 2026-12-31 and a weekly close above $48.35 would confirm the case; a weekly close below $38 would invalidate it. | A weekly close below $38 invalidates the cardiovascular re-rating thesis; failure to initiate EDG-7500 Phase 3 by 2026-12-31 separately breaks the Q4 2026 execution case. |
| FDMT | LOW | Binary Catalyst | $15.22 | 4D Molecular Therapeutics’ durability thesis needs timely Q3 clinical execution to restore the advance; a weekly close above the August 21 reference of $15.83 would complete the recovery case before a weekly close below $12.50 invalidates it. The guided Q2 2027 randomized result remains the clinical test. | A weekly close below $12.50 invalidates the July–August recovery structure retained from the 2026-08-30 research note; company confirmation that DME Phase 3 did not start within Q3 2026 separately breaks the timely-execution premise. |
| HALO | MEDIUM | Picks & Shovels | $112.45 | Halozyme's royalty-led earnings re-rating rests on the 2026-08-06 guidance increase. A weekly close above the $110.76 high identified on September 11 would confirm another price leg before a weekly close below $98 invalidates it; Argus's September 9 quantitative report adds a $119 valuation target, without establishing higher earnings estimates. | A weekly close below $98 invalidates the price-continuation thesis, retaining the research boundary published on 2026-09-05. Separately, a reduction in the 2026-08-06 full-year royalty guidance of $1.220–1.245 billion would break the operating premise. |
| LIFE | MEDIUM | Emergent | $36.00 | Ethos Technologies’ guidance-durability re-rating depends on meeting its third-quarter outlook despite the TruStage disruption. Revenue of at least $160 million and preservation of the $727–731 million full-year outlook would substantiate the operating case; a weekly close below $32 would invalidate the price structure. | A weekly close below $32 breaks the August price structure. Separately, Q3 2026 revenue below $160 million or a reduction of the $727–731 million FY2026 revenue outlook invalidates the operating case. |
| MANE | MEDIUM | Binary Catalyst | $106.75 | Veradermics’ oral minoxidil story depends on Study ‘304’ replicating the reported hair-growth benefit by year-end 2026. Failed replication, a weekly close below $85, or the reporting window expiring without results would invalidate the case. | A weekly close below $85 ends the market thesis; failed placebo-controlled efficacy, treatment-related serious adverse events, or 2026-12-31 passing without Study ‘304’ topline results also invalidate the case. |
| OABI | LOW | Picks & Shovels | $4.47 | OmniAb’s milestone re-rating depends on repeat partner payments lifting full-year revenue guidance above $36 million at the next results. A weekly close below $3.82 ends the price thesis; the October 6 Investor and Analyst Day provides an earlier disclosure venue. | A weekly close below $3.82 breaks the 2026-08-17 Lilly-announcement reference and ends the re-rating thesis; full-year revenue guidance remaining at or below $36 million at the next results fails the fundamental test. |
| OMER | MEDIUM | Dominant Narrative | $17.87 | Omeros Corporation’s YARTEMLEA launch supports a further re-rating if Q3 2026 net sales exceed Q2’s $28.5 million before a weekly close below $16.00. The 2026-10-01 hospital reimbursement change adds a later adoption test; it cannot explain Q3 sales. | A weekly close below $16.00 invalidates the retained September price boundary. Separately, Q3 2026 net product sales at or below Q2’s $28.5 million contradict the sequential-growth thesis, especially if ordering accounts exceed the 73 reported at 2026-06-30. |
| RVMD | HIGH | Dominant Narrative | $190.95 | Regulatory-clock narrative re-accelerating: the rolling NDA under the FDA National Priority Voucher is "nearing completion" (2026-07-07) and the EMA opened a phased CHMP review the same day, while the Street ceiling walked from ~$186 to $235 (Guggenheim, 2026-07-09). The three-week digestion off the $192.62 high resolved higher on 2026-07-17 (+3.9% to $186.16) — the… | A weekly close below $158 forfeits the June breakout shelf and marks the post-RASolute re-rating unwinding; secondarily, an FDA Refuse-to-File, Complete Response Letter or clinical hold on daraxonrasib, or the rolling NDA failing to complete submission by end-Q3 2026. |
| SGMT | MEDIUM | Emergent | $11.09 | Sagimet Biosciences’ funded acne-trial launch underpins a continuation case, confirmed by October 2026 screening and a weekly close above $11.06. A weekly close below $8.50 or a disclosed screening delay beyond October would invalidate it. | A weekly close below $8.50 invalidates the continuation case tied to the 2026-08-13 trial clearance; a company disclosure that AURORA screening did not begin during October 2026 separately breaks the operating schedule. |
| SRPT | MEDIUM | Legacy Pivot | $20.11 | Sarepta Therapeutics’ recovery thesis prices commercial funding of its RNA pipeline, with follow-up clinical data guided for the second half of 2026. The market re-rating case completes at a weekly close above the supplied $24.45 reference high before a weekly close below $19 invalidates it. | A weekly close below $19 invalidates the recovery price case; failure to release the guided DM1 and FSHD cohort updates by 2026-12-31 separately invalidates the clinical timetable. |
| TVTX | MEDIUM | Binary Catalyst | $62.76 | Travere Therapeutics’ FILSPARI expansion needs another quarter of sales and patient-start growth to confirm its commercial narrative. A weekly close above $67.52 completes the price case; a weekly close below $58 invalidates it. | A weekly close below $58 invalidates the post-August-results price structure. Separately, Q3 2026 FILSPARI US net sales at or below $141.1 million or patient start forms at or below 2,012 would fail the commercial continuation test. |
Prediction markets & betting
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRSR | MEDIUM | Legacy Pivot | $13.38 | Corsair Gaming's margin-recovery story is approaching its $14.35 annual high; a weekly close above that level would confirm the recovery leg. A weekly close below the market's $10.93 August anchor would invalidate it, while the next quarterly report tests whether profitability persists beyond the tariff benefit. | A weekly close below $10.93 breaks the recovery anchored to the 2026-08-21 market close; secondary fundamental invalidation is Q3 FY26 revenue below the $320 million guidance floor or Components & Systems gross margin below Q2's 26.3%. |
| NSP | LOW | Legacy Pivot | $50.31 | Insperity's margin-repair re-rating requires a weekly close above $53.40 before a weekly close below $48. Third-quarter employee volumes must meet the 305,500 guidance floor and the full-year adjusted EBITDA floor must remain at least $185 million to confirm the operating case. | A weekly close below $48 ends the recovery-price thesis; Q3 average paid worksite employees below 305,500 or a full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance floor below $185 million would separately invalidate the operating case. |
Rare disease & gene therapy
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CYRX | MEDIUM | Picks & Shovels | $17.02 | Q2 (2026-08-06) split the read: revenue $49.0M beat $48.21M and FY26 guide affirmed at $192–196M with adjusted EBITDA crossing to +$0.4M, but commercial CGT growth halved to +9% YoY from +26%. The narrative leg is now the profitability crossover; the stock closed $15.12 on 2026-08-07, 8.8% under the $16.57 high, with no scheduled catalyst until ~November. | A weekly close below $13 loses the 2026 breakout shelf and the 20-week EMA zone; secondary confirmation would be commercial CGT revenue failing to reaccelerate above +15% YoY at the ~November Q3 print, or any cut to the affirmed $192–196M FY2026 revenue band. |
| MGTX | MEDIUM | Binary Catalyst | $13.25 | The $400M Oberland royalty deal (2026-07-07) took dilution and runway risk off the table and spiked MGTX to a new 52-week high of $15.35 before a fade to ~$12.44 — a non-dilutive re-rate of a three-program AAV gene-therapy pipeline, but the next hard clinical binary (AQUAx2) is a year out in Q2 2027. | A weekly close below $11.00 fails the reclaimed $11.85-$12.11 breakout and gives back the Oberland pop (spike was distribution); a weekly close below $9.00 ends the post-deal re-rate. Secondary: a clinical hold/CRL, AQUAx2 enrollment slipping past guide, or an Oberland tranche condition failing. |
Semi foundry & equipment
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AEHR | MEDIUM | Picks & Shovels | $93.49 | Aehr Test Systems’ AI burn-in orders support a revenue-ramp thesis; the next results must preserve fiscal 2027 guidance of $130–150 million. The recovery case requires a weekly close above Lake Street’s $110 target before a daily close below the published invalidation level | A daily close below the published invalidation level ends the recovery case at the research boundary retained from 2026-09-03. Withdrawal or reduction of the $130–150 million fiscal 2027 revenue guidance issued on 2026-07-14 separately breaks the operating premise. |
| TSEM | MEDIUM | Picks & Shovels | $223.60 | Tower Semiconductor’s silicon-photonics expansion needs its next quarterly report to confirm the August revenue guide and July 2028 model. A weekly close below $195 would invalidate the price recovery before that operating confirmation. | A weekly close below $195 invalidates the recovery above the $200 shelf reclaimed on 2026-09-02. Secondary failure conditions are Q3 2026 revenue below the $494 million guidance floor or a reduction of the $3.6 billion 2028 revenue framework published on 2026-07-14. |
| UMC | HELD | Legacy Pivot | $24.61 | Silicon-photonics pivot re-rated the ADR ~3x, but the July blowoff to $28.96 round-tripped -26% to $21.25 in days while sell-side finally upgraded (Macquarie Outperform 2026-07-14) — late-stage distribution behaviour. The 2026-07-29 Q2 print is now the binary that decides whether the leg resumes or the re-rate unwinds. | A weekly close below $19.00 takes out the June breakout shelf and confirms the $28.96 July high as the cycle top; secondarily, a Q2 print on 2026-07-29 that meets revenue but compresses gross margin, showing the mature-node price war reasserting under an AI headline. |
Analog semiconductors
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MXL | LOW | Picks & Shovels | $81.12 | The AI-optical revenue leg still compounds — Q3 guided to $210–220M against Q2's $168.8M — while the price leg makes new lows: the 2026-09-04 close of $62.74 is 51.0% below the $128.03 high with RSI(14) at 25.1, after roughly $50M of Seendripu-trust stock was sold or filed for sale on 2026-08-14/17. Nothing company-dated resolves before the ~2026-10-22 print; the 2026-09-09… | A weekly close below $62 puts price under the entire post-Q2-print range including the $67 early-August area, marking a trending decline rather than a base; secondary break is the 2026-09-09 Citi and 2026-09-10 StoneX slots passing with no update to the $210–230M 2026 optical range, or Q3 revenue landing inside rather than above the $210–220M guide. |
| QRVO | LOW | Binary Catalyst | $117.18 | Qorvo trades as a fixed-ratio merger spread: 0.960 SWKS plus $32.50 cash. Skyworks' $74.02 close on 2026-09-04 implies $103.56 against Qorvo's $102.84 — about 0.70% gross, the thinnest of this coverage, after the acquirer rallied 12.5% in a week. The completion story is saturated: both legs trade above the ~2026-07-29 sell-side targets and SAMR still carries no announced… | A weekly close below $95 gives back the entire early-September advance and implies either Skyworks near $65.85 at an unchanged spread or a spread widening past $8.50 with Skyworks unchanged; secondary confirmation if an 8-K discloses withdrawal and refiling of the China notification or Skyworks reverts to early-2027 close language. |
| SMTC | LOW | Picks & Shovels | $185.00 | The mix-purification leg has lost its price leg: the August bounce round-tripped from a $140.35 close on 2026-08-14 to $124.09 on 2026-08-21, under the 2026-07-17 flush close. The binary moved forward — Q2 FY27 prints 2026-08-25 after the close, with consensus ($328.4M / $0.62) sitting exactly on the guide, so the October outlook carries the move. | A daily close below the published invalidation level confirms the July $124–125 closing floor failed rather than held, leaving the June–August range as distribution. Secondary: a 2026-08-25 Q2 FY27 print under the $323–333M guide, or an October-quarter guide below the ~$360M the sell-side models. |
Small-cap value rotation
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FBIZ | MEDIUM | Emergent | $70.80 | First Business Financial Services’ earnings re-rating depends on Q3 sustaining its 3.78% margin and exceeding $19.8 million in pre-tax pre-provision earnings. The thesis fails on a weekly close below $68 or deterioration below those Q2 operating benchmarks. | A weekly close below $68 breaks the published post-results support threshold; separately, Q3 net interest margin below 3.78% or pre-tax pre-provision earnings below $19.8 million invalidates operating continuation. |
Space economy
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IRDM | HELD | Binary Catalyst | $46.77 | Iridium Communications’ merger-discount thesis now has completed financing behind it; acquisition completion before a weekly close below $43.50 settles the case. Rocket Lab’s 2026-09-15 funding announcement advances the transaction, while the 2026-09-24 shareholder vote and regulatory approvals remain unresolved. | A weekly close below $43.50 invalidates the merger-premium structure near the market’s $43.52 pre-announcement close on 2026-06-26; formal termination, certified shareholder rejection or a final order blocking completion separately ends the acquisition thesis. |
| SPCX | MEDIUM | Dominant Narrative | $152.71 | SpaceX’s compute expansion now has a price breakout behind it; September capacity delivery and the December contract start test revenue conversion. A weekly close below $146.15 invalidates the breakout thesis. | A weekly close below $146.15 loses the market’s 2026-08-12 closing peak and invalidates the breakout thesis. A disclosed failure to meet the reported 2026-09-30 Google capacity deadline or begin the new contract on 2026-12-01 breaks the corresponding delivery claim. |
Travel & leisure
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEO | MEDIUM | Dominant Narrative | $31.76 | The GEO Group’s detention-contract story depends on year-end 2026 activation, with normalized earnings expected in early 2027. A weekly close above $32.77 would confirm the price leg; a weekly close below $28 or a disclosed activation delay beyond year-end would invalidate the case. | A weekly close below $28 invalidates the contract-activation price leg, retaining the research threshold published on 2026-09-05. A disclosed delay beyond year-end 2026 or cancellation at Big Horn or Rivers separately breaks the operating thesis. |
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How should you read this watchlist?
- Conviction / status is the model's current tag, not a recommendation. LOW = interesting but the setup isn't here yet; HELD = on the active research bench as a continuation idea.
- Archetype is the playbook the dossier engine assigns (Dominant Narrative, Picks & Shovels, 2nd-Order AI, Legacy Pivot, Binary Catalyst, Retail Squeeze, Emergent).
- "Watching for" is the concrete public level or event that confirms the entry or invalidates the thesis — analyst price targets, technical bases, catalyst dates. Never positioning.
Research only. No positions, sizes, entries, stops, or P&L are disclosed. Per-name prices are the latest available quotes via FMP (a US exchange fallback); theses and levels are drawn from the live ticker dossiers.