Refreshed every trading day latest 2026-06-14. Regime RISK-ON (SPX +8.5% over its 200-EMA, VIX 19.44 / elevated, breadth 60.6% of names above their 200-EMA). This is a research note names, theses, and the levels we're watching. Not advice, not positions. Per-name prices are current reads via FMP (a US exchange fallback) as of 2026-06-14.
This is the active research bench, built from the live ticker dossiers (status WATCHLIST / HELD with a real thesis). It tracks what we're watching and why the theme, the archetype, the conviction tag, and the level that would invalidate the thesis. It does not disclose positioning.
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|
| AMD | LOW | Picks & Shovels | $511.57 | AI-chip ACCELERATING but (rank 34%), parabolic ATH chase, ARK persistent distribution dossier wants the ~$420 shelf retest. | — |
| ASML | MEDIUM | Picks & Shovels | $1863.55 | ASML is the cleanest second-derivative on the AI-capex super-cycle: EUV monopoly, CEO's "supply-limited market for quite a while" framing (5/20), High-NA first product data on logic AND DRAM later in 2026, JPM Overweight PT $2,200 (6/3). Theme is classifier-ACCELERATING with cluster confirmation and 7 rules fired (momentum top-25%, +19pp vs SPX 20d, near-52w-high structure,… | Weekly close below the 20-week EMA (50% scale-out) or Q2 guide worse than −18% sequential confirming demand softening; on entry side, do not act until a 20/50-DMA pullback with RVOL>1.5 while not holding a correlated foundry name (TSM). |
| AVGO | MEDIUM | Picks & Shovels | $382.07 | Q2 FY26 (2026-06-03) printed a monster $30B AI bookings vs $10.8B shipped (2.8x book-to-bill), $100B+ FY27 AI guide but AVGO sold the news (-12% on 2026-06-04) and kept falling into a rate-driven risk-off. Fundamentals ACCELERATING, tape CORRECTING; the buyable structure is the higher-low that holds, not the knife. | Weekly close below the 2026-06-04/05 post-Q2 reaction low AND under the 20-EMA (sell-the-news becomes a structural de-rate); OR FY27 AI revenue guide later cut below $100B; OR a confirmed Google/Meta next-gen TPU socket loss to MRVL. |
| INTC | LOW | Legacy Pivot | $124.57 | AI-chip theme but momentum LAGGARD (rank 88%), NVDA ARM-PC structural x86 threat + 108x P/E contested thesis, weakest cluster name. | — |
| MU | LOW | Picks & Shovels | $981.61 | AI-memory thesis intact but price leg cracked (+200% over 200DMA, CEO sold $36M, Burry SOXX short) into FQ3 ~6/25 binary most-saturated memory leg, correlated dup. | — |
| TSM | HELD | — | $423.93 | — | a daily close below the published invalidation level. |
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|
| OKTA | HELD | Emergent | $116.29 | Identity-software momentum continuation: OKTA gapped to a 52-week high on a Q1 FY27 beat and FY27 guide raise (2026-05-29). Theme classifier still ACCELERATING (0.78), but the catalyst is now behind it the entire sell-side PT-raise cluster is dated 2026-05-29 and Mizuho already cut to Neutral (06-02). Setup is maturing, not fresh. | Daily close below the post-earnings breakout shelf / rising 20-EMA (~$108), OR the cybersecurity/identity theme classifier flips off ACCELERATING, OR a peer (CRWD/PANW/ZS) guides demand down, OR a second sell-side downgrade follows Mizuho's 06-02 cut. |
| SNOW | HELD | Dominant Narrative | $232.78 | A narrative accelerating on FUNDAMENTALS: Q1 FY27 product rev $1.33B +34% (re-accel from +30%), RPO +38%, FY27 guide raised to $5.84B, Cortex Code fastest-ramping product ever on the $200M Anthropic deal. Driver is theme acceleration the AI-enterprise-data cluster (HPE/MRVL/DELL) breaking out together, SNOW the cleanest software expression. The two prior avoids awaited a… | a daily close below the published invalidation level loses the post-earnings gap shelf / rising 20-EMA, fills the gap and breaks the inflection re-rate structure. |
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|
| META | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $566.98 | Monetization-beyond-ads leg (Business Agent Platform, $200/mo Hatch) is still young, but the live tape flipped to capex-dilution fear: a 6/5 report of a tens-of-$B equity raise to fund AI infra triggered an investor dump ("drunken sailors") and CNBC-visible institutional trims. The CapEx-discipline thesis is under direct attack; theme MATURING into a crashing broad market. | Confirmed multi-tens-of-$B equity raise priced at a discount that the tape sells (validates the capex-dilution bear case); OR weekly close below the 20-EMA on rising volume; OR Q2 (~2026-07-29) ad rev <+15% YoY vs Q4 +21%; OR custom-silicon theme (AVGO/MRVL) breaks into SATURATED. |
| PLTR | MEDIUM | Dominant Narrative | $127.99 | Commercial-flywheel re-acceleration (Google Cloud Marketplace + Dell on-prem + multi-vertical deal cadence into June) plus Trump 'trusted partner' 60-day clock but price was rejected at the 200-DMA (2026-06-03) on a MATURING, publicly-saturated theme. Wedbush reiterated the published invalidation level (2026-06-05). Trade the reclaim, not the rejection. | Failure to reclaim the 200-DMA within ~2-3 weeks plus a daily close below the early-June profit-taking swing low on >1.5x avg volume; OR a DIA ruling formally barring PLTR from the contract bid; OR Q2 US commercial growth decel <45% YoY (~Aug). |
| TSLA | LOW | Emergent | $406.43 | Optimus/Robotaxi leg is contested and maturing, not accelerating. Robotaxi fleet shrank to 20 cars (6/4), Roadster demo slipped to August (6/5), and NVIDIA's open robotics platform plus Sam Altman are arming/attacking the humanoid moat. Offsetting: JPM perma-bear flip to Neutral $475 and TD Cowen $490 (6/4-6/5) sell-side catching up late after the 6/2 ~$75B gap-down. SpaceX… | Confirmed pass if TSLA fails to reclaim its 2026-06-02 pre-gap high within ~2 weeks, the Austin Robotaxi fleet shrinks below 20 cars, or any FSD class-cert/HW3-retrofit ruling lands. Re-engage only on a reclaim of that high plus a dated TSLA-owned robotics accelerant (Optimus milestone or Robotaxi rides inflection on an expanding fleet). |
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|
| SYRE | MEDIUM | Binary Catalyst | $80.79 | Accelerating TL1A/I&I platform: SPY001 Part A de-risked UC (Robarts −9.2, p<0.0001); next leg is SPY002 "mid-2026" open-label Part A induction. Abivax obefazimod's Phase 3 malignancy signal (6/4) cleared an oral UC competitor and drove DB to $115 (Citi $97, Stifel $107) while stock ~$75 near 52wk-high $78.80. Binary-readout name into the print. | SPY002 "mid-2026" (~2026-06-30 est.) Part A induction shows weak within-patient efficacy or class-discordant TL1A safety; OR weekly close below the $62 April offering shelf on >2x 20d avg volume; OR Merck tulisokibart (ATLAS-UC) or Roche RVT-3101 prints superior anti-TL1A Phase 3 data. |
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|
| COIN | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $159.78 | 1.5–2.5x BTC-beta proxy mid-bear-leg, not a dip: BTC sub-$63K, −26% on the month, 11-day ETF outflow streak (−$3.45B), MSTR now selling. COIN ~$174 (6/4) sliced under the $180 Piper anchor; Baird just cut its PT to $142 (6/5). Falling knife no long until BTC reclaims ~$68K and COIN closes >$185 weekly. | Long re-arms only on BTC reclaim of ~$68K AND a COIN weekly close above $185 (back over the $180 bear anchor + 20-EMA), ideally with 3+ days of net-positive spot-ETF flows. BTC losing $60K opens $55K and a weekly close below the $142 Baird floor pushes the no-touch zone lower; do not buy oversold RSI alone. |
| CRCL | LOW | Emergent | $77.84 | Mastercard USDC settlement catalyst (6/03) printed and is being faded the same release added Ripple's RLUSD, commoditizing the 'only rail' thesis. Theme model flipped SATURATED (6/05) and Mizuho cut its PT to $85 the next day. A sold-the-news setup into a wall of neutral ratings and Tiger Global's full exit. Watch, do not chase. | Weekly close below $77 (Compass Point magnet) on above-average volume; OR failure to reclaim $85 (Mizuho PT) within two weeks of the Mastercard catalyst, confirming sold-the-news; OR Q2'26 print shows no USDC settlement-volume traction from Mastercard/Nium. |
| MSTR | LOW | Retail Squeeze | $123.97 | Flywheel reversed and now mechanically broken: with MSTR ~$125 the mNAV premium has collapsed below the level where issuance funds new BTC buys (Grayscale, 6/5), Strategy turned net seller (Saylor, 6/1), STRC is in a "death spiral" (Schiff, 6/2), and BTC cracked $60K (6/5). Avoid the knife no long until BTC bases and net accumulation resumes. | Avoid-stance flips to long ONLY on all three: (1) BTC weekly close back above $84K, (2) an 8-K showing net BTC accumulation with zero sell-language, (3) MSTR weekly close above its 20-EMA with mNAV premium restored above issuance-accretive level. Until then every bounce is a falling-knife trap. |
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|
| APLD | MEDIUM | Legacy Pivot | $42.70 | BTC-miner→AI-infra pivot structurally de-risked: backlog ~$31B after Polaris Forge 3 (the published invalidation levelB/15yr take-or-pay, 300MW, capacity past 1.2GW) on top of CoreWeave 400MW (~$11B) and Polaris Forge 2 ($5B). Neocloud theme ACCELERATING; stock pulled back ~12% into the ~$40–44 20-EMA retest cleaner fresh-entry R:R than the late-May chase, but 26 Buy/0 Sell analyst crowding plus ATM… | Weekly close below rising 20-EMA (~$44) → first warning; daily close below ~$40 May lease-breakout shelf on volume → structural crack; daily close below ~$34 April pivot base → BTC→AI re-rate failed, thesis dead. Any 8-K disclosing an ATM/equity raise → de-risk regardless of price. |
| CRWV | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $100.55 | Post-Q1 beat-and-fade mean-reverted from the mid-$130s April peak to a ~$104 post-print low; now a basing/recovery attempt on fresh dated catalysts (Vera Rubin NVL72 first-validation 6/1, BNP Paribas Outperform $192 init 6/2, enlarged NVDA stake, 6/5 NBIS-comp upside spotlight). No print until Aug 11 = no binary overhang, but CRWV is still the theme laggard funded with… | Weekly close below the ~$104 post-Q1 low (5/20) = base failed, opening the DA Davidson $100 → Bernstein $67 air pocket. Also invalidating: the $850M data-center junk bond prices wider than the 9.750% notes (credit refusing the recovery), or a second consecutive cohort guide-down at the Aug 11 print. |
| HUT | HELD | — | $118.86 | — | a daily close below the published invalidation level. |
| IREN | MEDIUM | Legacy Pivot | $59.77 | BTC-miner→AI-neocloud pivot resolved bull: 5-yr $3.4B Microsoft AI-cloud contract + $3.65B investment-grade GPU financing (closed 6/1) + Dell $1.6B Blackwell supply killed both the named-tenant and dilution gates. Theme ACCELERATING, PTs ramping to $79–$99. But 2026-06-04 printed the first red day after an extended, retail-hot run entry chases unless the 5/26 breakout gap… | Weekly or decisive daily close back below the 2026-05-26 breakout gap on >1.5x avg volume (failed breakout); OR disclosure of a Microsoft contract delay/descope; OR a new ATM equity raise >$300M priced below spot (signals the $3.65B IG facility was insufficient). |
| NBIS | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $232.36 | GPU-cloud ACCELERATING, theses resolved bullish but +100%/6wks parabolic on a short-squeeze, correlated to held HUT pullback-only, not a chase. | — |
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|
| AMSC | LOW | Picks & Shovels | $40.02 | Grid/advanced-conductor arms dealer to data-center power; backlog +40% YoY to ~$280M still accelerating, but the grid-power-transmission theme cooled to MATURING and the 2026-05-28 beat sold off on a soft Q1 margin guide ($0.17 vs $0.24 est). Price structure broken near $46.67 — wait for a weekly higher low above $40, don't chase the knife. Next binary ~early Aug. | Weekly close below $40 (loses post-earnings shelf + April base pivot; opens path to the 200-DMA / $24.87 low). Also dead if the early-Aug Q1 print shows 12-mo backlog contracting from ~$280M or grid orders rolling over, or grid-power-transmission downgrades to SATURATED/DEAD. |
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|
| CEG | LOW | 2nd-Order AI | $253.76 | Nuclear-baseload-for-AI is the crowded, mainstream leg of industrial-power-ai. A FERC waiver (2026-06-02) pulled the TMI/Crane restart toward 2027 and popped CEG +2.6%, but that's the existing Microsoft deal advancing, not a new leg. | Weekly close below $240 (200-DMA + post-Calpine gap fill); OR FERC rejects the Amazon/Susquehanna co-location (docket ER24-2172) or PJM slips Crane interconnection to 2031; OR 2026 adj-EPS guide cut below the reaffirmed $11 floor at Q2 (~2026-08-05). |
| SHLS | HELD | — | $10.43 | — | a daily close below the published invalidation level. |
| VST | LOW | 2nd-Order AI | $148.02 | Original anticipation thesis fully resolved bullish (Meta+AWS PPAs signed, 2026 EBITDA guide raised ~14% to $6.72-7.52B, PJM cleared at the $329 cap) but VST sold the news ~32% off the $219.81 high and the June-5 $148.76 close is failing back toward the $132.66 low. Catalyst spent, theme MATURING, no binary until ~Aug Q2. Trend-repair, not asymmetric don't bottom-fish;… | Weekly close below $132 (May-2026 swing low) on >1.3x avg volume; OR failure to reclaim the 50-DMA (~$160-165) by end-July while CEG/TLN/NRG roll over; OR a hyperscaler Q2 capex guide-cut that re-rates the power complex lower. |
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|
| BFLY | HELD | Emergent | $5.54 | AI point-of-care ultrasound narrative accelerating: Q1 2026 revenue +25% YoY ($26.5M), Butterfly Embedded chip-licensing +147%, first FDA-cleared blind-sweep AI tool, Compass AI and HomeCare commercializing through 2026. But the CBO sold ~$1.9M into the June social-velocity spike and price stalled below the $5.72 high fundamentals accelerating, the easy price gain likely… | Daily close below the ~$4.40 breakout base (loses the rising 50-EMA structure off the $1.33 low), OR Q2 2026 revenue below the $27M guide floor / any cut to the $117–121M FY guide signals the June move was a fading retail spike, not a durable narrative leg. |
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|
| AAOI | LOW | Picks & Shovels | $169.05 | Optical ACCEL but secondary to cleaner COHR; +400% YTD parabola, $600M ATM supply ceiling, ETF/MEME-saturated, ~2.2x consensus PT. Peak-sentiment chase, no catalyst ~8wks WATCH. | — |
| LITE | MEDIUM | Picks & Shovels | $921.56 | Optical-AI picks-and-shovels: the post-print -8.45% sell-the-news is fully reversed LITE reclaimed its pre-print high on a 2026-06-01 +7% signal bar at $866.97, riding Nasdaq-100 inclusion and the 2026-06-02 AI-chip rally to fresh records. Theme ACCELERATING with cluster confirmation, but REX 2X ETF + photonics-ETF debut flag late-stage saturation, making this a late,… | Daily close below ~$840 forfeits the 2026-06-01 $866.97 signal-bar reclaim; OR a weekly close under the rising 20-EMA; OR a peer optical name (COHR/MRVL/AAOI) losing its 50-day while LITE diverges lower any one flips momentum to broken. |
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|
| CCJ | LOW | 2nd-Order AI | $100.96 | Q1 confirmed both legs bullish (adj EBITDA C$509M, Westinghouse C$122M, FY guide held), but price won't follow: the early-June bounce stalled at $114 and reversed -6.6% to $106.44 on 2026-06-05 a lower high rejected at the ~$115 — reclaim zone while spot firmed near $86.5/lb. Theme MATURING, structure broken; probe-only until a real higher-low reclaim of $115 on volume. | Weekly close below $100 (loses the May ~$104 low), or uranium spot back under $80/lb, or a Q2 guide cut to the 19.5–21.5M lb range on the 2026-07-31 print. A second rejection at ~$115 confirms the lower high and voids the reclaim setup. |
| NNE | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $23.18 | May catalyst cluster (NRC acceptance 5/20, SMCI MOU, $13M STS buy) is spent and the nuclear-powers-AI theme cooled ACCELERATING→MATURING on 6/05; price lost the ~$24 post-NRC base into the low $20s (intraday $22.76) with a live $400M ATM armed. Faded leg, not a fresh entry re-entry only on a held higher low above ~$22–24 with the theme re-accelerating. | Daily close below $22 forfeits the post-NRC base and opens the $18.93 52-week low; alternatively any 424B/8-K disclosing the $400M ATM selling into rallies confirms catalysts are priced and dilution is absorbing demand. |
| SMR | LOW | Binary Catalyst | $9.89 | Undated South Korea $200B-package binary (NuScale Tennessee/Uljin SMR; Doosan + Samsung C&T) is the only live leg, but the June 1–2 pop to ~$14 fully round-tripped and broke to a $10.50 close (6/5) on 45%-above-avg volume, pressing the $8.85 52-wk low. Fundamentals broken (Q1 rev $0.565M, −96%); Citi $7 / Goldman $9 at/below spot. Sell-the-rip into lows pass on the chase,… | South Korea $200B package finalizes with no named NuScale allocation, or a weekly close below the $8.85 52-wk low confirms the breakdown. Engage long only on a named SK capital figure (or binding offtake ≥$100/MWh for ≥250 MWe) PLUS a higher-low base reclaiming the 20-EMA (~$12). |
| UUUU | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $15.04 | Rare-earth ex-China leg drove a June 2 +12% spike to $19.75 on the first US mine-to-oxide Tb/Dy oxide, but it blew off: -13.5% June 5 to $15.03, a weekly close back under the $16 mid-May shelf. Fundamental narrative (ASM vote June 22, Q4-2026 commercial heavy-REE) intact; price structure broken. Failed-spike reversal no clean setup, probe only on a base reclaim above ~$17. | Daily close below $14 extends the failed-spike downtrend; OR ASM scheme vote fails at the 2026-06-22 Perth meeting / deal terminated; OR uranium spot holds below $78/lb for two consecutive weeks; OR any bounce fails to reclaim and hold the lost ~$16-17 mid-May shelf (no higher low). |
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|
| HOOD | LOW | Dominant Narrative | $93.19 | Crypto-financials SATURATED (0.15), faded its own PDT good news to a weak close ~47% below ATH, CLARITY odds cut 90%→60% broken structure, no base. | revisit on a weekly close back above the 20-EMA (mid-$80s) reclaiming the ~$87-88 higher-low shelf, or a CLARITY Act floor-vote scheduling. |
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|
| IONQ | LOW | Retail Squeeze | $57.85 | Gov-capital re-rate (2026-05-21 CHIPS $2B + equity stakes) and the 2026-05-06 Q1 blowout are already priced; price tagged $63 on 2026-05-26 then rolled, -8% on 2026-06-05. Quantinuum's 2026-06-04 IPO faded market no longer paying up for quantum supply. MATURING/froth-deflating; current price is late-cycle digestion, not a discovery entry. | Weekly close below the rising 20-EMA (refresh — no live feed); Q2 revenue sequentially below Q1 $64.67M or any FY guide cut from $260–270M; or IONQ excluded from final $2B CHIPS equity-stake awards while peers are included (unwinds the 2026-05-26 pop). |
| QBTS | LOW | Retail Squeeze | $23.37 | Government-bet leg ($100M Commerce LOI, 5/21) is digested, not fresh. Sell-side caught up triple $40 PTs on 6/2 QTUM ETF at $5B, and Quantinuum's $14.3B IPO (6/3) faded on day one (6/4), adding quantum equity supply. Theme MATURING→saturating, a6 squeeze; fresh entry only on a pullback that holds the May-21 gap base, not a chase into the $40-PT prints. | Daily close back below the ~$20 May-20 pre-announcement base = government-bet gap filled and failed. OR a new ATM/shelf take-down 8-K beyond the $100M Commerce issuance. OR QTUM ETF rolls over while the quantum cohort (IONQ/RGTI/QUBT) prints lower lows in unison (theme→DEAD). |
| QUBT | LOW | Retail Squeeze | $9.93 | QNT's 2026-06-04 IPO faded same-day the feared flight-to-quality came and went without lifting QUBT, which stays excluded from the $2B CHIPS award and stuck below a failing 200-DMA near ~$11.34. MATURING theme, beta-only laggard, no accelerating leg to buy. | Flip to interest only on a weekly close back above the ~$13–14 200-DMA driven by a QUBT-specific catalyst (TFLN customer 8-K, direct federal award, or sustained options skew). Hard skip on any 424B5/S-3 ATM filing or a weekly close losing the ~$10 shelf. |
| RGTI | LOW | Retail Squeeze | $20.98 | Gov-stake/CHIPS leg (2026-05-21) and Q1 print (2026-05-11) both spent; no RGTI-specific catalyst inside 30d. Stock held a $24 base but cracked to $20.39 on 2026-06-05 as basket leader QBTS rolls from ~the published invalidation level to the high-teens; theme MATURING→SATURATED (QTUM $5B AUM, Quantinuum $14.3B IPO, IBM $10B commoditizing the pure-play). Re-acceleration watch, not a fresh chase. | Daily/weekly close below ~$20 (loses the long-term average and gives back the 2026-05-21 gov-stake gap), confirmed by QBTS failing to reclaim its 20-EMA, OR any ATM-issuance 8-K filed during strength (front-runs basket peak by 5–10 sessions). |
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|
| AEHR | LOW | Picks & Shovels | $108.47 | Pivot to hyperscale AI-ASIC package-level burn-in validated by a record $41M follow-on order and >$92M H2 FY26 bookings, but the tape is blowoff: +400%+ YTD, ATH $113.20 on the 2026-06-02 William Blair day, catalyst now passed, insiders selling. Ai-chip theme ACCELERATING, this expression SATURATED no low-risk entry at the highs; the $80-90 shelf retest into the ~July 7 Q4… | Weekly close below the $80 breakout shelf (opens $60-65 base), or Q4/FY26 print (~2026-07-07) that walks back the non-GAAP profitability guide or shows H2 bookings momentum stalling. |
| AXTI | LOW | Picks & Shovels | $97.18 | InP-substrate supplier to the AI optical-interconnect build (Q1 InP >50% of rev, record $100M backlog, Q2 guided to first profit in years). But the tape broke: -16% on 6/5 to ~$89 on a >$22M CEO insider sale, -38% off the 5/26 $143 ATH, losing the $90 base. Narrative intact, structure distributing stand aside until a higher-low base reforms above $100. | Lost the $90 base on 6/5 (-16% day, >$22M CEO insider sale); no buyable setup until a reclaim and hold above $100 on normalizing volume with a higher-low. Thesis breaks outright on Q2 (~7/29) revenue below the $34M guide, InP backlog falling QoQ from the $100M record, or denial of pending US InP export permits. |
| TSEM | MEDIUM | Picks & Shovels | $262.92 | Specialty-foundry AI-recovery confirmed by the 2026-05-13 Q1 beat (op profit ~doubled, GM up, Q2 guide raised, +17%) but the catalyst is fully digested, sell-side caught up ($300–335 PTs), news dry 3 weeks, theme registry narrowed to one tag. The ACCELERATING leg is maturing. No catalyst inside 30d; next binary is the Q2 print ~early Aug. Clean re-entry wants a higher-low /… | Weekly close back below the ~$255 May-13 earnings-gap base (failed post-beat breakout — verify exact 20-EMA before sizing), or a Q2 guide walk-back / RF-SOI inventory-reset signal from QCOM/AVGO handset commentary. |
| Ticker | Conviction | Archetype | Last | Thesis | Watching For |
|---|
| ASTS | MEDIUM | Retail Squeeze | $82.41 | — | retry at the next scheduled review. |
| PL | HELD | Dominant Narrative | $31.15 | Record Q1 FY27 beat (6/4: rev $94.15M vs $89.85M est, adj EPS $(0.03) vs $(0.04), FY27 guide nudged to $425-441M) and the stock sold off, then sank again 6/5 as a $1.5B equity shelf was filed and the space cluster rolled over on SpaceX-IPO fatigue (Redwire/Momentus -20%). Theme SATURATED (UFO ETF $1B AUM). Strong fundamentals into broken, rolled-over price structure = value… | Holding below the lost ~$42 breakout shelf keeps the structure rolled-over (no-touch); a daily close below the ~$32 post-earnings low confirms the downtrend toward DEAD-theme treatment. A long only re-validates on a weekly reclaim of $42+ on volume with a higher low. |
| SPCX | LOW | 2nd-Order AI | $160.95 | SpaceX listed on Nasdaq as SPCX on 2026-06-12 at a $135 offer (a roughly $1.77T valuation and $75B raised, the largest IPO ever to price), and opened into the $150–165 band on demand several times its book. The asset underneath is generational: Starlink alone did $11.4B of 2025 revenue (about 61% of the company) at a $4.4B operating profit and 10M+ subscribers, with… | A read on entry timing. Constructive only on a post-lock-up higher-low base that holds above the $135 offer on expanding volume, or a first public quarter that validates Starlink's margin trajectory. More cautious if the stock loses the $135 offer on heavy volume (the day-one pop unwound and the float overhang won), if Starlink growth decelerates, or if a Starship setback… |
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- Conviction / status is the engine's current tag, not a recommendation. LOW = interesting but the setup isn't here yet; HELD = on the active research bench as a continuation idea.
- Archetype is the playbook the dossier engine assigns (Dominant Narrative, Picks & Shovels, 2nd-Order AI, Legacy Pivot, Binary Catalyst, Retail Squeeze, Emergent).
- "Watching for" is the concrete public level or event that confirms the entry or invalidates the thesis analyst price targets, technical bases, catalyst dates. Never positioning.
Research only. No positions, sizes, entries, stops, or P&L are disclosed. Per-name prices are reads via FMP (a US exchange fallback) as of 2026-06-14; theses and levels are drawn from the live ticker dossiers.