Anatomy · how a dossier is built
Every dossier, dissected.
A dossier isn't a stock tip — it's a structured argument you can audit line by line. Here's a live one, taken apart: every part, what it claims, and which stage and frontier model wrote it.
The specimen
We're dissecting HPE — Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company, a live dossier from the book. The specific name rotates as the book does; the structure below never changes — every one of the 756 dossiers is built from these same parts.
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Identity and lifecycle state. A name only earns a dossier after it clears the tradability gate.
HPE → HPE · Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company · Held
How the model produces this
The screen filters a ~400-name universe by spread, ADV, market cap and shape. Status (Held / Watchlist / Rotation / Recently exited / Dormant) tracks where the name sits in the research lifecycle — rules-based, no model judgement.
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One paragraph: what the bet is, and why — in plain English.
HPE → Five straight up sessions took HPE to a $53.22 close on 2026-08-07 with the 2026-08-04 gap floor at $50.24 still untested; Trefis put the five-day move at +19.8% against +5.6% for the S&P 500, so this leg is no longer pure sector beta.…
How the model produces this
In the assessment stage, Claude Opus reads 30 days of news, four quarters of earnings transcripts, and filings for the name, then compresses the whole picture into a single falsifiable claim. Not a price target — a reason.
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The explicit kill criterion — published up front, before it fires.
HPE → A daily close below $50.24 fills the 2026-08-04 gap and negates the break-and-extend leg ($48.19 returns price inside the July range). Secondary: the ~2026-09-02 Q3 FY26 print landing revenue beneath the guided…
How the model produces this
The honesty mechanism. Opus commits, in writing, to the condition that would prove the thesis wrong. If it triggers, conviction is stripped and the thesis is treated as broken. A published commitment, not a soft caveat.
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Both sides, constructed identically. No hand-waving on the side it disagrees with.
HPE → Present — sourced, dated, equal weight
How the model produces this
Opus writes the bear case with the same rigour as the bull case — sourced bullets, dated, weighted. A dossier you can audit shows the disconfirming evidence, not just the conclusion.
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Where the name is technically — the structure the thesis has to play out across.
HPE → Present — MAs, RSI, levels, basing pattern
How the model produces this
The scoring stage weighs price structure × volume × news density × theme-cluster strength. The structural read (moving averages, RSI, key levels) feeds the assessment so the thesis is grounded in the actual tape, not just the narrative.
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The dated events that could move the thesis, next 30 days.
HPE → Next dated catalyst · 2026-08-11
How the model produces this
Earnings prints, product dates, regulatory decisions — extracted and dated so a reader knows exactly when the binary resolves. Dossiers age fast; the calendar is why recency-of-write is on every page.
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The conditions that would raise or lower conviction — stated, not implied.
HPE → Present — explicit higher / lower conviction conditions
How the model produces this
Separate from the binary kill-switch: the graded evidence that would move confidence up or down. Makes the model's reasoning legible — you can see what it's waiting for.
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A behaviour profile that hard-caps how big a name can get — not a label.
HPE → Special situation
How the model produces this
One of eight archetypes (Compounder → Macro hedge). The sizing rules read it directly: a Retail-squeeze name gets a hard size cap a Compounder never would. See the full taxonomy.
Archetype taxonomy → -
Calibrated confidence that the setup plays out — not a return forecast.
HPE → MEDIUM
How the model produces this
Four tiers (Supreme → Low). Each calibrates sizing and stop discipline, and each carries its own invalidation trigger that strips it if breached. Confidence with a published off-ramp.
conviction high medium low none
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The narrative baskets the name belongs to, and how it moves with them.
HPE → ai-datacenter-infrastructure · ai-enterprise-software
How the model produces this
Themes are treated as primary. The scoring stage reads basket behaviour — a name is sized against its cohort and the regime, not in isolation. Correlation notes capture how it actually trades with the group.
Browse this theme →
Three mechanisms that keep it honest
Invalidation
Every thesis ships with the condition that would prove it wrong — published before it fires.
Dating
Every read carries its write date. A confident setup read can age out in hours; the page tells you when it was made.
Symmetry
The bear case is built with the same rigour as the bull case. Disconfirming evidence is shown, not buried.