Where the flow is this week.

Ranked by combined momentum (RSI(14) +% distance from SMA50). Prices/technicals computed from split-adjusted daily bars through the 2026-08-07 close. Regime read: RISK-ON (VIX 15.81, calm; breadth 65.3% of names above their 200-EMA, healthy; SPY +9.1% vs 200-EMA).

| Rank | Sector | Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | vs SMA50 | vs SMA20 | Signal | | ----- | ------- | ------- | ------ | -------- | --------- | --------- | ------- | | 1 | S&P 500 | SPY | $773.16 | 66.3 | +3.56% | +3.07% | Above both MAs, momentum positive | | 2 | Financials | XLF | $57.61 | 64.1 | +5.26% | +1.44% | Above both MAs, momentum positive | | 3 | Healthcare | XLV | $165.67 | 61.7 | +5.09% | +2.09% | Above both MAs, momentum positive | | 4 | Consumer Disc | XLY | $119.82 | 62.3 | +3.35% | +4.20% | Above both MAs, momentum positive | | 5 | Materials | XLB | $52.86 | 60.0 | +3.29% | +3.26% | Above both MAs, momentum positive | | 6 | Industrials | XLI | $185.16 | 58.8 | +3.10% | +2.11% | Above both MAs, momentum positive | | 7 | Tech | XLK | $187.96 | 59.2 | +2.57% | +5.08% | Neutral-positive above SMA50, RSI mid-range | | 8 | Staples | XLP | $85.12 | 51.8 | +1.20% | +0.20% | Neutral-positive above SMA50, RSI mid-range | | 9 | Energy | XLE | $57.49 | 49.8 | +1.79% | -1.12% | Cooling RSI under 50 or losing a near MA | | 10 | Semis | SMH | $582.92 | 52.9 | -2.00% | +3.38% | Cooling RSI under 50 or losing a near MA | | 11 | Real Estate | XLRE | $44.99 | 49.8 | +0.84% | -0.50% | Cooling RSI under 50 or losing a near MA | | 12 | Utilities | XLU | $43.60 | 36.2 | -2.60% | -3.06% | Below MAs out of favor |

Key Observations

1. Leadership: S&P 500 (SPY) tops the table RSI 66.3, +3.56% vs its SMA50. Extended but momentum intact.
2. Weakest: Utilities (XLU) is the most oversold RSI 36.2, -2.60% vs SMA50. Defensives being sold usually accompanies broad risk appetite.
3. Breadth of strength: 10 of 12 sectors sit above their SMA50. Broad participation supports the risk-on read.
4. Extension check: No sector at RSI ≥ 72 no blow-off-top reading; momentum can run.

Actionable Tilts

Where momentum lives (leadership)

| Sector | Ticker | RSI | vs SMA50 | Read | | ------- | ------- | ---- | --------- | ----- | | S&P 500 | SPY | 66.3 | +3.56% | Leader; RSI < 72 leaves room. | | Financials | XLF | 64.1 | +5.26% | Leader; RSI < 72 leaves room. | | Healthcare | XLV | 61.7 | +5.09% | Leader; RSI < 72 leaves room. | | Consumer Disc | XLY | 62.3 | +3.35% | Leader; RSI < 72 leaves room. |

Lagging / avoid for fresh momentum

• Semis (SMH) RSI 52.9, -2.00% vs SMA50: below trend wait for a reclaim.
• Utilities (XLU) RSI 36.2, -2.60% vs SMA50: below trend wait for a reclaim.

Rotation Signal

Regime: RISK-ON. Leadership sits in SPY, XLF, XLV; the laggards are SMH, XLRE, XLU. Defensives at the bottom while growth leads is what a risk-on rotation looks like.

Monitor:

• VIX > 20 = calm regime breaking, first risk-on crack (currently 15.81)
• SPY RSI > 72 / XLF RSI > 72 / XLV RSI > 72 = leaders extended, tighten stops (currently 66.3, 64.1, 61.7)
• Breadth < 50% above 200-EMA = participation deteriorating (currently 65.3%)

Deterministic regen from a US exchange daily bars + macro-regime.json, refreshed every trading day latest 2026-08-07 · prices through 2026-08-07 close. Research only no positions, sizes, entries, or P&L.