Sectors · weekly read
Where the flow is this week.
Updated ·
Ranked by combined momentum (RSI(14) +% distance from SMA50). Prices/technicals computed from split-adjusted daily bars through the 2026-09-18 close. Regime read: RISK-OFF (VIX 17.71, calm; breadth 37.0% of names above their 200-EMA, deteriorating; SPY +5.8% vs 200-EMA).
Which US sectors have the strongest momentum right now?
As of the 2026-09-18 close, Tech (XLK) ranks first of 12 US sectors on combined momentum, with RSI 58.2 and +3.56% versus its SMA50. Full ranking:
| Rank | Sector | Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | vs SMA50 | vs SMA20 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tech | XLK | $189.64 | 58.2 | +3.56% | +2.29% | Above both MAs, momentum positive |
| 2 | Energy | XLE | $64.30 | 55.6 | +5.11% | +0.30% | Above both MAs, momentum positive |
| 3 | Semis | SMH | $572.67 | 54.1 | +1.41% | +2.67% | Neutral-positive — above SMA50, RSI mid-range |
| 4 | S&P 500 | SPY | $761.62 | 50.8 | +0.50% | -0.11% | Neutral-positive — above SMA50, RSI mid-range |
| 5 | Healthcare | XLV | $168.39 | 49.8 | +0.98% | -1.12% | Cooling — RSI under 50 or losing a near MA |
| 6 | Staples | XLP | $82.82 | 39.2 | -2.47% | -2.20% | Below MAs — out of favor |
| 7 | Financials | XLF | $55.87 | 36.8 | -2.29% | -2.62% | Below MAs — out of favor |
| 8 | Consumer Disc | XLY | $111.02 | 38.0 | -3.77% | -3.02% | Below MAs — out of favor |
| 9 | Materials | XLB | $49.99 | 35.3 | -3.43% | -3.95% | Below MAs — out of favor |
| 10 | Industrials | XLI | $169.74 | 34.4 | -5.16% | -2.44% | Most oversold — deep risk-off / mean-reversion candidate |
| 11 | Real Estate | XLRE | $42.52 | 31.4 | -4.67% | -3.18% | Most oversold — deep risk-off / mean-reversion candidate |
| 12 | Utilities | XLU | $41.09 | 31.3 | -6.22% | -3.40% | Most oversold — deep risk-off / mean-reversion candidate |
What stands out in this week's sector flow?
- Leadership: Tech (XLK) tops the table — RSI 58.2, +3.56% vs its SMA50. Extended but momentum intact.
- Weakest: Utilities (XLU) is the most oversold — RSI 31.3, -6.22% vs SMA50. Defensives being sold usually accompanies broad risk appetite.
- Breadth of strength: 5 of 12 sectors sit above their SMA50. Narrow leadership — watch for deterioration.
- Extension check: No sector at RSI ≥ 72 — no blow-off-top reading; momentum can run.
Which sectors are worth overweighting or avoiding?
Where momentum lives (leadership)
| Sector | Ticker | RSI | vs SMA50 | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tech | XLK | 58.2 | +3.56% | Leader; RSI < 72 leaves room. |
| Energy | XLE | 55.6 | +5.11% | Leader; RSI < 72 leaves room. |
Lagging / avoid for fresh momentum
- Staples (XLP) — RSI 39.2, -2.47% vs SMA50: below trend — the setup needs a reclaim.
- Financials (XLF) — RSI 36.8, -2.29% vs SMA50: below trend — the setup needs a reclaim.
- Consumer Disc (XLY) — RSI 38.0, -3.77% vs SMA50: below trend — the setup needs a reclaim.
- Materials (XLB) — RSI 35.3, -3.43% vs SMA50: below trend — the setup needs a reclaim.
- Industrials (XLI) — RSI 34.4, -5.16% vs SMA50: mean-reversion bounce candidate, not a trend long.
- Real Estate (XLRE) — RSI 31.4, -4.67% vs SMA50: mean-reversion bounce candidate, not a trend long.
- Utilities (XLU) — RSI 31.3, -6.22% vs SMA50: mean-reversion bounce candidate, not a trend long.
Is money rotating between sectors right now?
Regime: RISK-OFF. Leadership sits in XLK, XLE, SMH; the laggards are XLI, XLRE, XLU. Watch whether leadership rotates toward defensives — that would mark the regime turning.
Monitor:
- VIX > 20 = calm regime breaking, first risk-on crack (currently 17.71)
- XLK RSI > 72 / XLE RSI > 72 / SMH RSI > 72 = leaders extended, tighten stops (currently 58.2, 55.6, 54.1)
- Breadth < 50% above 200-EMA = participation deteriorating (currently 37.0%)
Deterministic regen from a US exchange daily bars + macro-regime.json, refreshed every trading day — latest 2026-09-18 · prices through 2026-09-18 close. Research only — no positions, sizes, entries, or P&L.