Sectors · weekly read
Where the flow is this week.
Ranked by combined momentum (RSI(14) +% distance from SMA50). Prices/technicals computed from split-adjusted daily bars through the 2026-06-12 close. Regime read: RISK-ON (VIX 19.44, elevated; breadth 60.6% of names above their 200-EMA, healthy; SPY +8.5% vs 200-EMA).
| Rank | Sector | Ticker | Price | RSI(14) | vs SMA50 | vs SMA20 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Semis | SMH | $619.51 | 60.5 | +17.15% | +4.87% | 🟢🟢 Strong leadership extended above SMA50, momentum intact |
| 2 | Financials | XLF | $53.35 | 65.1 | +3.32% | +2.96% | 🟢 Above both MAs, momentum positive |
| 3 | Healthcare | XLV | $153.80 | 62.2 | +4.22% | +2.68% | 🟢 Above both MAs, momentum positive |
| 4 | Tech | XLK | $184.81 | 55.8 | +9.98% | +0.43% | 🟢 Above both MAs, momentum positive |
| 5 | Real Estate | XLRE | $45.34 | 61.6 | +3.27% | +2.38% | 🟢 Above both MAs, momentum positive |
| 6 | Staples | XLP | $85.85 | 61.2 | +2.89% | +2.06% | 🟡 Neutral-positive above SMA50, RSI mid-range |
| 7 | Materials | XLB | $52.19 | 57.3 | +1.86% | +2.91% | 🟡 Neutral-positive above SMA50, RSI mid-range |
| 8 | Industrials | XLI | $176.19 | 55.9 | +2.23% | +1.83% | 🟡 Neutral-positive above SMA50, RSI mid-range |
| 9 | S&P 500 | SPY | $741.67 | 53.0 | +2.62% | -0.45% | 🟡 Neutral-positive above SMA50, RSI mid-range |
| 10 | Utilities | XLU | $44.53 | 50.0 | -1.66% | +0.57% | 🟠 Cooling RSI under 50 or losing a near MA |
| 11 | Consumer Disc | XLY | $116.61 | 48.2 | -0.36% | -0.75% | 🟠 Cooling RSI under 50 or losing a near MA |
| 12 | Energy | XLE | $57.56 | 48.1 | -0.41% | -1.33% | 🟠 Cooling RSI under 50 or losing a near MA |
Key Observations
- Leadership: Semis (SMH) tops the table RSI 60.5, +17.15% vs its SMA50. Extended but momentum intact.
- Weakest: Energy (XLE) is the most oversold RSI 48.1, -0.41% vs SMA50. Avoid for fresh momentum until it reclaims its MAs.
- Breadth of strength: 9 of 12 sectors sit above their SMA50. Broad participation supports the risk-on read.
- Extension check: No sector at RSI ≥ 72 no blow-off-top reading; momentum can run.
Actionable Tilts
Where momentum lives (leadership)
| Sector | Ticker | RSI | vs SMA50 | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Semis | SMH | 60.5 | +17.15% | Leader; RSI < 72 leaves room. |
| Financials | XLF | 65.1 | +3.32% | Leader; RSI < 72 leaves room. |
| Healthcare | XLV | 62.2 | +4.22% | Leader; RSI < 72 leaves room. |
| Tech | XLK | 55.8 | +9.98% | Leader; RSI < 72 leaves room. |
Lagging / avoid for fresh momentum
- Utilities (XLU) RSI 50.0, -1.66% vs SMA50: below trend wait for a reclaim.
- Consumer Disc (XLY) RSI 48.2, -0.36% vs SMA50: below trend wait for a reclaim.
- Energy (XLE) RSI 48.1, -0.41% vs SMA50: below trend wait for a reclaim.
Rotation Signal
Regime: RISK-ON. Leadership sits in SMH, XLF, XLV; the laggards are XLU, XLY, XLE. Defensives at the bottom while growth leads is the textbook risk-on rotation.
Monitor:
- VIX > 20 = calm regime breaking, first risk-on crack (currently 19.44)
- SMH RSI > 72 / XLF RSI > 72 / XLV RSI > 72 = leaders extended, tighten stops (currently 60.5, 65.1, 62.2)
- Breadth < 50% above 200-EMA = participation deteriorating (currently 60.6%)
Deterministic regen from a US exchange daily bars + macro-regime.json, refreshed every trading day latest 2026-06-14 · prices through 2026-06-12 close. Research only no positions, sizes, entries, or P&L.