Rates, credit, breakevens.

Current Regime: RISK-ON

Confidence: MEDIUM-HIGH

Regime reads RISK-ON, unchanged from the prior published entry dated August 7 the fifth consecutive RISK-ON print on the public ledger (n=5). This print carries no fresh economic releases: the weekend gap between August 7 and August 9 means every rate, credit, and labor series references the same underlying prints as last week. The 10Y held at 4.69%, the 2Y held at 4.25%, and HY credit held at 2.71%, all dated August 6. The one genuine move is at the margin the 10Y breakeven eased 1bp to 2.25%, pushing the estimated real 10Y up 1bp to 2.44%, a rounding-level shift rather than a signal. Equity inputs are equally stale: VIX 15.81 (August 5 print), SPY 768.64 against a 704.34 200-EMA (+9.1%), breadth 65.3% (637 of 975 names above their own 200-EMA), all dated August 7, the same session as last week's read. Labor is the stalest leg: claims sit at the August 1 print of 199K, while unemployment at 4.1%, payrolls at 158.9M and housing starts at 1,427K carry June and July reference dates.

What changed materially this week:

1. Nothing at the data level. No new trading day landed between the last print (August 7) and this one (August 9); every headline figure repeats its prior value.
2. 10Y Breakeven -1bp to 2.25%, Real 10Y +1bp to 2.44% the only genuine movement in the set, and it is small enough to be noise rather than a directional read.
3. 10Y 4.69%, 2Y 4.25%, HY 2.71% all flat, dated August 6.
4. VIX 15.81, breadth 65.3% (637/975), SPY +9.1% over its 200-EMA flat, dated August 5/7 respectively no new session to move them.
5. Claims 199K still the August 1 print; the next release is the first genuinely new labor datapoint since this string of RISK-ON reads began.

Key Indicators

| Indicator | Value | WoW | Signal | | ---------- | ------ | ---- | ------- | | 10Y Treasury | 4.69% | unchanged | Elevated | | 2Y Treasury | 4.25% | unchanged | Front end holding | | 10Y-2Y Spread | 0.44% | unchanged | Positively sloped | | Real 10Y Rate | 2.44% | +1bp | Restrictive | | 10Y Breakeven Inflation | 2.25% | -1bp | Anchored | | Fed Funds | 3.63% | n/a | On hold (July 1 print) | | HY Credit Spread | 2.71% | unchanged | Tight in absolute terms | | Initial Claims | 199K | unchanged | August 1 print, no new release | | Unemployment Rate | 4.1% | n/a | Holding (July 1 print) | | Nonfarm Payrolls | 158.9M | n/a | Trend growth intact (July 1 print) | | Housing Starts | 1,427K | n/a | June print; real rates still a lid | | VIX | 15.81 | unchanged | Calm (August 5 print) | | Breadth > 200-EMA | 65.3% (637/975) | unchanged | Healthy |

Regime Assessment

RISK-ON (MEDIUM-HIGH confidence). Measured: VIX 15.81, SPY 768.64 against a 704.34 200-EMA (+9.1%), breadth 65.3% (637/975), HY 2.71% (unchanged), T10Y2Y 0.44% (unchanged), real 10Y 2.44% (+1bp), 10Y 4.69% (unchanged), 2Y 4.25% (unchanged), claims 199K (unchanged, August 1). Inferred: every input that drove last week's classification is still in place because it is literally the same data no reversal, but also no new confirmation. A regime read built on a weekend gap is a carry-forward, not an independent print.

Confidence stays at MEDIUM-HIGH rather than rising, because five consecutive RISK-ON reads includes at least one (this one) that added no new information. It stays above plain MEDIUM because nothing in the set reversed either the 14bp HY tightening from two weeks prior or the breadth/VIX levels remain exactly where they landed on a constructive print. The labor picture still cannot arbitrate anything current: unemployment at 4.1% and payrolls at 158.9M both reference July 1, and claims at 199K is now over a week stale.

The threshold to watch:

• Confirms risk-on: the next claims release prints at or below 199K, breadth holds at or above 65.3%, and HY stays inside 2.71%.
• Resolves toward neutral or risk-off: VIX leaves the calm band, breadth slips below 65.3%, HY widens back out from 2.71%, or claims break above 199K on the next print.

What could move the regime:

• Reinforces risk-on: a fresh claims print at or below 199K plus breadth holding or rebuilding above 65.3%.
• Undercuts it: HY gives back its prior tightening from 2.71%, or the 10Y reverses higher off 4.69% while breadth keeps thinning.

Sector Tilts

Framed as macro VIEWS, not positions.

Overweight: Credit-sensitive cyclicals and high-yield-adjacent equity risk. HY at 2.71% remains tight in absolute terms with no widening this print; VIX at 15.81 and SPY 9.1% over its 200-EMA leave no stress signature in the equity inputs. This view is wrong if HY widens back out from 2.71% or VIX exits the calm band.

Neutral: Broad equal-weight equity exposure. Breadth at 65.3% (637/975) is inside the healthy band but has not rebuilt since the prior print's decline from 653 names, which cuts against paying up for the average stock over the index. Neutral until breadth pushes back above 65.3% on a genuinely new print.

Underweight: Long-duration rate-sensitive defensives utilities, REITs, bond-proxy income. The real 10Y at 2.44% is still restrictive and the nominal 10Y at 4.69% is elevated in absolute terms, with housing starts at 1,427K the visible cost. This view fails if the real 10Y extends below its current level and holds there while breakevens stay anchored near 2.25%.

Forward Catalysts

• Next initial claims release 199K on the August 1 print is now over a week stale and is the most overdue labor input in the set. A read above 199K puts the freshest series against the classification; at or below 199K it stays aligned.
• August-referenced unemployment and payrolls 4.1% and 158.9M both date to July 1 and cannot speak to what the last several weeks did. Either could refresh weaker without any warning from claims.
• HY spread follow-through from 2.71% the level has held flat for a full print cycle; the next genuine move either direction becomes the load-bearing signal.
• Real 10Y path from 2.44% extension lower with breakevens anchored near 2.25% would ease the discount rate genuinely; a reversal back through 4.69% on the nominal 10Y restores the pressure that housing starts at 1,427K already reflect.
• Breadth confirmation 637 of 975 names above their 200-EMAs. Whether that count rebuilds toward the prior 653 or keeps eroding decides if this is a broad tape or an index-led one, but needs a new trading session to move at all.

Bottom Line

This print is a carry-forward, not a fresh read every FRED and equity input landed on the same underlying data as the prior week because no new trading session occurred between them. The classification holds at RISK-ON on persistence, not new confirmation. The next claims release is the most overdue datapoint in the set and the one to watch first.

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Macro View is refreshed weekly — latest read 2026-08-09. A single current snapshot, not a multi-week archive. Research only; no positions, sizes, entries, stops, or P&L.