US stock market regime today

What regime is the US market in right now?

The close-of-day read for 13 November 2026 is neutral. The S&P 500's trend and volatility clear their lines, but participation falls short of the 60% breadth line the regime rules require for risk-on.

Breadth measures how many stocks share in a market move. 568 of 998 stocks are above their own 50-day average, which is 56.9%. That level is healthy but unconfirmed.

The S&P 500 (via SPY) is +3.1% above its 200-day average. SPY tracks this index of large US companies.

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) measures how much traders expect the S&P 500 to swing over the coming month. At 19.3, it is in its elevated band, which runs from 18 to 28.

Which macro indicators moved this week?

Treasury yields rose sharply this week, led by the 2-year, while the high-yield credit spread narrowed.

A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point. As of 12 November 2026, the 2-year Treasury yield was 4.86%, up 35 basis points week over week. The 10-year yield was 5.10%, up 24 basis points. The 10-year minus 2-year spread fell 8 basis points to 0.27% as of 13 November 2026, so the yield curve flattened.

The 10-year breakeven rate is the bond market's implied inflation rate over ten years. It rose 1 basis point to 2.24% as of 13 November 2026. The real 10-year rate is the yield left after expected inflation. It rose 23 basis points to 2.86% as of 12 November 2026. Higher real yields drove the 10-year's move, while inflation expectations barely changed.

The 2-year rose more than the 10-year. In this analyst's view, that shows bond buyers pricing short-term rates to stay higher for longer. The view is wrong if the 2-year gives back this week's 35 basis point rise while the effective Fed funds rate holds at 3.88%, its level as of 12 November 2026.

The high-yield credit spread is the extra yield investors demand to lend to riskier companies. It narrowed 22 basis points week over week to 3.20% as of 12 November 2026. Over longer windows it has widened: up 0.04 percentage points since 13 October 2026 and 0.53 percentage points since 14 August 2026.

Longer windows give rates a different shape:

• 10-year yield: 4.98% on 10 November 2026, down 0.26 percentage points from 9 October 2026 and up 0.28 percentage points from 11 August 2026.
• 2-year yield: 4.73% on 10 November 2026, down 0.07 percentage points from 9 October 2026 and up 0.51 percentage points from 11 August 2026.
• WTI crude oil: $89.62 per barrel on 11 November 2026, down 6.05% from 13 October 2026 and up 8.28% from 13 August 2026.
• Broad dollar index: 121.88 on 6 November 2026, up 0.52% since 7 October 2026 and up 2.36% since 7 August 2026.

Initial jobless claims rose 9K week over week to 200K in the week ending 7 November 2026. The unemployment rate was 4.1% in October 2026, and nonfarm payrolls totaled 159.3M that month. Housing starts were 1,221K in September 2026. Sources: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) and the close-of-day market read.

How strong is the evidence for this regime?

The evidence for neutral is narrow. Participation alone holds the read here; trend and volatility already sit on the risk-on side of their lines.

Evidence for the regime: The index's short-term momentum is soft. The S&P 500 is 1.27% below its 50-day average. Its relative strength index (RSI), a 0-to-100 momentum gauge, reads 47.1.

Evidence against the regime: The S&P 500's distance above its 200-day average clears the 0.5% the regime rules set for risk-on by a wide margin. The VIX is elevated, yet it sits well under the 28 risk-off line.

Continuity: Today's entry is the second consecutive neutral read in the journal, following the prior published entry dated 12 November 2026. Two reads are too few to establish a trend.

Context from rates and credit: The 22 basis point narrowing in the high-yield spread shows lenders still willing to fund riskier companies. Jobless claims of 200K describe a labor market with few layoffs. The 23 basis point jump in the real 10-year rate raises the return stocks must offer to compete with bonds. These series are context for the read; the regime rules do not use them.

What would change the call: No risk-off trigger is met, and risk-on needs breadth above 60% (now 56.9%). The call turns risk-off under any one of three conditions:

• the S&P 500 closes more than 2% below its 200-day average (now +3.1%);
• breadth falls under 40% (now 56.9%);
• the VIX rises above 28 (now 19.3).

Which sectors lead, and does the macro data explain it?

Health Care, Consumer Staples and Utilities lead the 11 S&P 500 sectors, and Technology ranks last. Rising real yields fit Technology's place. Narrowing credit spreads do not fit a defensive lead.

Sector momentum on daily closes through 13 November 2026:

• Leaders: Health Care ranks first, with an RSI of 66.8 and a close 7.96% above its 50-day average. Consumer Staples ranks second, RSI 65.1, also 7.96% above. Utilities ranks third, RSI 66.1, 5.28% above.
• Middle: Financials ranks fourth, RSI 61.8, 4.92% above. Real Estate ranks fifth, RSI 61.0, 4.35% above. Consumer Discretionary ranks sixth, RSI 59.6, 5.45% above. Materials ranks seventh, RSI 52.7, 2.66% above.
• Laggards: Communication Services ranks eighth, RSI 55.6, 0.57% below its 50-day average. Industrials ranks ninth, RSI 50.5, 0.05% below. Energy ranks tenth, RSI 49.6, 0.08% above. Technology ranks eleventh, RSI 39.5, 8.97% below.
• Benchmark: the S&P 500 has an RSI of 47.1 and sits 1.27% below its 50-day average.

Three defensive sectors hold the top three ranks. The rates data explains part of that order. A real 10-year rate up 23 basis points to 2.86% weighs most on companies valued for distant earnings, which fits Technology at the bottom. Oil's 6.05% fall since 13 October 2026 fits Energy at tenth.

Other pieces do not fit. Utilities and Real Estate usually suffer when yields rise, yet they rank third and fifth after a 24 basis point jump in the 10-year. The high-yield spread narrowed 22 basis points, which is not the credit stress that usually sends money to defensive sectors. Breakeven inflation moved 1 basis point, so inflation fears do not explain the order either. In this analyst's view, the defensive lead reflects a move away from Technology more than a broad retreat from risk. That view is wrong if the high-yield spread widens back above its 13 October 2026 level while Health Care, Consumer Staples and Utilities keep the top three ranks.

What macro catalysts are next?

The next close-of-day reads decide the call, through breadth first. No risk-off trigger is met, and risk-on needs breadth above 60% (now 56.9%). It turns risk-off if the S&P 500 closes more than 2% below its 200-day average (now +3.1%); or breadth falls under 40% (now 56.9%); or the VIX rises above 28 (now 19.3).

Scheduled data shapes the context around that read without moving it:

• Weekly initial jobless claims: the next print follows the 200K reading for the week ending 7 November 2026.
• The November 2026 employment report: it updates the 4.1% unemployment rate and 159.3M payroll count from October 2026.
• Housing starts: the next monthly reading follows September 2026's 1,221K.
• Treasury yields: whether the 2-year holds near 4.86% tests the higher-for-longer pricing described above.

Bottom line

Trend and volatility already pass the regime rules, so breadth carries the whole decision. Rising real yields and Technology's position 8.97% below its 50-day average describe a market where gains are concentrated in defensive sectors.

---

Refreshed after every US trading day. This read covers the 13 November 2026 close.