Live book · scored in public · open methodology
Most research hides its book and never keeps score. we publish the names we hold and the ones we're circling — each with the exact trigger that would prove it wrong — then resolves them in public, played-out or invalidated, and Brier-scored. Falsifiable, dated, nothing to sell.
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30d
per candidate, daily
Earnings transcripts
4Q
synthesised per name
Archetypes
8
behaviour profiles
Context
1M
side-by-side candidate review
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What changed across the book — regime, conviction, fresh dossiers, catalysts.
57 new · 288 refreshed MacroThe regime call and the rate, credit and breadth read behind it.
Risk-on HotThe momentum board — the US names with the strongest trend right now.
16 themes accelerating LatestThe change feed — every move, refresh and resolution, dated.
353 changes this weekThis week
Ranked · highest conviction first
HUT
Hut 8 Corp.
SHLS
Shoals Technologies Group, Inc.
TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd.
OKTA
freshOkta, Inc.
Identity-software momentum continuation: OKTA gapped to a 52-week high on a Q1 FY27 beat and FY27 guide raise (2026-05-29). Theme classifier still ACCELERATING (0.78), but the catalyst is now behind it the entire sell-side PT-raise cluster…
SNOW
Snowflake Inc.
A narrative accelerating on FUNDAMENTALS: Q1 FY27 product rev $1.33B +34% (re-accel from +30%), RPO +38%, FY27 guide raised to $5.84B, Cortex Code fastest-ramping product ever on the $200M Anthropic deal. Driver is theme acceleration the…
BFLY
freshButterfly Network, Inc.
AI point-of-care ultrasound narrative accelerating: Q1 2026 revenue +25% YoY ($26.5M), Butterfly Embedded chip-licensing +147%, first FDA-cleared blind-sweep AI tool, Compass AI and HomeCare commercializing through 2026. But the CBO sold…
Themes · accelerating
Memory trade screaming (MU/SNDK 'bulletproof', SNDK +200% 3m), TSM scarcity + price hikes, KLAC/ASML chip-equipment getting fresh billionaire bid, MRVL PT to $345, ALAB Nasdaq-100 inclusion. Core engine still accelerating; added MRVL/KLAC/ALAB/SNDK/UMC this week.
NEW low-conviction catch-all to keep these watchlist names clustered: OPEN ('real estate's Tesla moment', Eric Jackson $4→$500 thesis), LMND AI-insurtech, SNAP turnaround amid regulatory noise. Loose retail-favorite/disruption thread, not a clean cluster flagged low conf.
NEW: '7 Stocks to Buy for the World's Best Turnaround Trade' spotlights BBAR/BMA; the Argentine bank ADRs (GGAL, SUPV) are moving together on the macro-turnaround narrative. Coherent country/sector cluster.
The live book · held + circling
Not a logo wall published a quarter late — the names we hold right now, and the ones we're circling, each with its thesis and the trigger that would prove it wrong. Live and reasoned — each name dated, with the trigger that would prove it wrong.
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Most recent journal entry
Excerpt
RISK-ON the regime engine's latest close-of-day read, carried into the weekend (markets closed). The regime engine's close-of-day read is RISK-ON, an upgrade from NEUTRAL the week prior. The internals back the call rather than contradict it. Breadth sits at 61.3% of names above their 200-EMA (600 of 979) healthy participation, not a narrow-leadership tape.…
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Thesis, invalidation, catalyst — per ticker.
Open →The live book: held + circling. Names + research only.
Open →Which clusters are accelerating, maturing, saturated.
Open →Dated catalysts ahead — this week, next, later.
Open →Every regime call, dated and indexed.
Open →Every resolved thesis, graded against its own trigger.
Open →Where the flow is rotating, week by week.
Open →Five stages, archetype taxonomy, regime logic.
Open →Understand the system
What it is, why a public track record matters, and how to judge one.
Open → How it worksHow a name becomes a thesis, stage by stage.
Open → Anatomy of a dossierA live dossier dissected — each part mapped to its stage and model.
Open → RegimesThe macro-regime taxonomy and exactly what each regime gates.
Open → ArchetypesEight behaviour profiles, each a hard rule on how big a name can get.
Open → Why trust itThe honesty mechanisms: invalidation triggers, dated reads, nothing to sell.
Open → State of the bookLive coverage — names tracked, conviction mix, themes, current regime.
Open →Common questions
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Archetypes in rotation · behaviour profiles