MXL · MaxLinear
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $76.07
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
26.7% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $76.07, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 34.2% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $76.07, just over the 50-day average of closes, would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong. Fourth-quarter revenue above the $260 million top of the guide would also show the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 22 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 218
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +72.4
- Gross margin (%)
- 58.7
- Operating margin (%)
- 13.9
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −20.6
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −83.0
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 7.8
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −0.4
All filed numbers
What MaxLinear reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 218 | +72.4 | 58.7 | 13.9 |
| first filed | 169 | +55.2 | 57.8 | −2.5 |
| first filed | 137 | +43.0 | 57.5 | −12.5 |
| first filed | 136 | +48.0 | 57.6 | −10.9 |
| first filed | 127 | +55.9 | 56.9 | −32.7 |
| first filed | 109 | +18.3 | 56.5 | −22.6 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 28.2 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −29.4 | 28.9 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +12.1 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −7.2 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 13.4 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −20.6 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 81.1 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 164 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −83.0 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +273.7% on a year | 0.3 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 73.4 |
| Inventory ($M) | 114 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 533 |
| Market value ($M) | 5,076 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 5,159 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 7.8 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 9.5 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −0.4 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 4.9% of shares outstanding sold short, 1.4 days of average trading to cover, −8.8% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $60.1M |
The thesis
MaxLinear's shares are more likely to lag than beat the S&P 500 over the next three months, even after a rebound from $44.31 on 5 November 2026 to $58.96 on 12 November 2026. The fourth-quarter report, expected around late January 2027, decides whether revenue lands inside the $240–260 million guide.
The business outlook is strong. MaxLinear reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $218.1 million on 22 October 2026, up 29% from the previous quarter and 72% from a year earlier. It guided fourth-quarter revenue to $240–260 million against a $220.72 million estimate, and raised its 2026 optical data-center outlook to $250–270 million from $210–230 million.
The shares have not followed the outlook. The last close of $58.96 is 30.5% below the close of 3 months earlier and sits under both the 200-day average of $61.62 and the 50-day average of $76.05. Optical stocks sold off after Marvell Technology agreed on 2 November 2026 to buy Lumentum in an all-stock deal, and MaxLinear has traded with that group since. No company result arrives before the late-January report.
Bullish and bearish views on MaxLinear, Inc.
The bull case on MaxLinear, Inc. (MXL), in brief: guidance sits far above consensus. The bear case: the rebound has not recovered the earlier trend.
Bull case
- Guidance sits far above consensus. The $240–260 million fourth-quarter range issued on 22 October 2026 lies entirely above the $220.72 million estimate cited by Benzinga. A report inside that range would force analyst models higher.
- Optical outlook raised twice. The 2026 optical data-center outlook went to $250–270 million on 22 October 2026, after an earlier raise to $210–230 million. The chief executive tied the momentum to the volume ramp of the Keystone PAM4 (four-level pulse amplitude modulation) digital signal processor platform, per Investing.com.
- Margins held through the mix shift. Non-GAAP (adjusted) gross margin was 60.0% in the third quarter against 59.5% in the second, and the fourth-quarter guide is 59%–62%, per the 22 October 2026 results release. Non-GAAP earnings per share were $0.62 against a $0.55 estimate (Benzinga).
- Next-generation product cadence continues. MaxLinear unveiled the Jeju custom power-management chip for 1.6 terabit optical digital signal processors on 10 November 2026. The company says it saves up to 0.5 watts per processor with up to 95% peak conversion efficiency, and pairs with its Rushmore 1.6 terabit processor.
- Analyst targets sit well above the price. Bullstory listed an average target of $93.64 from 11 analysts on 3 November 2026, with 7 Buy and 4 Hold ratings. Targets lag the price, so the gap shows how far the shares have fallen ahead of estimate revisions.
- Liquidity against legal exposure. MaxLinear raised its revolving credit facility with Wells Fargo and other lenders by $70 million to $200 million, Investing.com reported on 22 October 2026.
Bear case
- The rebound has not recovered the earlier trend. The 12 November 2026 close of $58.96 is under the 200-day average of $61.62 and 54.0% below the 52-week intraday high of $128.30 set on 30 June 2026. The 50-day average of $76.05 shows how far the shares fell during the past two months.
- Good news has been sold. Investing.com cited profit-taking after a 290% one-year gain when the shares fell on 22 October 2026, the day of the beat-and-raise report. A second reaction to the sector news followed the Marvell–Lumentum announcement on 2 November 2026, when Motley Fool reported Marvell fell 28.1% in the week to 7 November 2026.
- Analyst targets are being cut. Wells Fargo kept an Equal-Weight rating and cut its target to $78 on 20 October 2026, then to $70 on 23 October 2026. Its target is above the last close, but the cuts came after the strongest report in the company's history.
- Insiders have been sellers. Chief executive Kishore Seendripu sold 591,454 shares at an average of $85.27 between 14 August 2026 and 17 August 2026, per his SEC Form 4 filed 18 August 2026.
- Optical revenue is concentrated. The raised outlook rests on a small number of 800G module programs, so one delayed program would move the fourth-quarter result and the 2026 outlook.
- Legal exposure is open. Silicon Motion's arbitration over the terminated 2022 merger claims a $160 million termination fee plus further damages, interest and costs.
Price setup
The last close was $58.96 on 12 November 2026. The adjusted closes for the past week were $44.31 on 5 November 2026, $49.18 on 6 November 2026, $55.91 on 9 November 2026, $53.83 on 10 November 2026 and $59.95 on 11 November 2026. The 11 November 2026 close came the same session that Applied Optoelectronics rose after CoreWeave's third-quarter results.
The 200-day average of $61.62 sits just above the last close. The 50-day average of $76.05 sits 29% above it, so a return to that average would take a further large rise. The 52-week closing low was $13.05 on 20 November 2025, and the 52-week intraday high was $128.30 on 30 June 2026. The 3-month change is −30.5% against the $84.84 close on 14 August 2026.
No earnings date falls inside the next 30 days, so the near-term driver is sector news rather than company results.
Catalysts ahead
- 17 November 2026: Nvidia quarterly report, a sector event for AI data-center chip stocks. The optical group sold off after 2 November 2026; Nvidia's read on AI spending shapes demand expectations for the optical modules that MaxLinear's chips go into.
- ~28 January 2027 (est.): MaxLinear fourth-quarter 2026 results. Revenue inside or above the $240–260 million guide and optical revenue tracking the $250–270 million 2026 outlook would confirm the ramp; a miss would weaken the case further.
What would change the view
A daily close above $76.07, just over the 50-day average of closes, would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong. Fourth-quarter revenue above the $260 million top of the guide would also show the shares leading.
What it trades with
MaxLinear trades with the AI data-center optical and semiconductor group. Marvell and Lumentum are the closest listed names; Yahoo Finance reported the Marvell–Lumentum review period could stretch into 2028. Applied Optoelectronics and CoreWeave results on 11 November 2026 coincided with the rebound in the group. The next sector reading comes from Nvidia's quarterly report on 17 November 2026.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $218.1 million, up 29% from the previous quarter and 72% from a year earlier; infrastructure revenue rose 210% from a year earlier. MaxLinear third-quarter 2026 results release (Business Wire) · as of
- Fourth-quarter 2026 revenue guidance is $240–260 million against a $220.72 million estimate; non-GAAP gross margin guidance is 59%–62%. MaxLinear results release; Benzinga · as of
- The 2026 optical data-center revenue outlook was raised to $250–270 million from $210–230 million. GuruFocus, MaxLinear third-quarter 2026 earnings call highlights · as of
- Third-quarter non-GAAP earnings per share were $0.62 against a $0.55 estimate; non-GAAP gross margin was 60.0%, up from 59.5% in the second quarter. Benzinga; MaxLinear results release · as of
- Wells Fargo kept an Equal-Weight rating and cut its price target to $78 on 20 October 2026, then to $70 on 23 October 2026. Benzinga analyst ratings · as of
- Marvell agreed to acquire Lumentum in an all-stock deal at 4.5 Marvell shares per Lumentum share; Marvell fell 28.1% in the week. Marvell announcement 2 November 2026; Motley Fool 7 November 2026 · as of
- MaxLinear unveiled the Jeju custom power-management chip for 1.6 terabit optical digital signal processors, claiming savings of up to 0.5 watts per processor. MaxLinear announcement, reported by World Business Outlook · as of
- CEO Kishore Seendripu sold 591,454 shares at an average of $85.27 between 14 August 2026 and 17 August 2026. SEC Form 4 filed 18 August 2026 · as of
Sources
- MaxLinear Introduces Jeju PMIC to Boost Next-Generation 1.6T Optical DSPs · worldbusinessoutlook.com
- Why Marvell Technology Stock Plunged 28.1% This Week · fool.com ·
- Marvell to purchase Lumentum for $115 billion in record-breaking AI tech deal, both stocks tank · finance.yahoo.com
- Analyst price target range · bullstory.io
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