MYE · Myers Industries
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $32.20
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
12.8% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $32.20, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 14.7% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $32.20, the level the shares held before the third-quarter results of 29 October 2026, which would erase the post-results decline and show the shares leading. A fourth-quarter gross margin at or above the 34.3% second-quarter level would also show that.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Consumer Discretionary
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 29 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 171
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +8.1
- Gross margin (%)
- 27.3
- Operating margin (%)
- 8.7
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −239
- Price to earnings (×)
- 36.8
All filed numbers
What Myers Industries reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 171 | +8.1 | 27.3 | 8.7 |
| first filed | 179 | +9.8 | 34.3 | 17.4 |
| first filed | 165 | +1.8 | 34.4 | 15.1 |
| first filed restated | 159 | −22.7 | 31.1 | 10.5 |
| first filed restated | 163 | −25.9 | 31.3 | 12.2 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 6.2 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 28.7 | −0.9 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +0.9 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 99.4 |
| Capital spending ($M) | Not available |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 53.5 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 292 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −239 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 108 |
| Inventory ($M) | 73.8 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 304 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,056 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 1,295 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | 36.8 |
| Price to book value (×) | 3.5 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 3.8% of shares outstanding sold short, 6.7 days of average trading to cover, −7.0% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $0 |
The thesis
Myers Industries' shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Third-quarter gross margin fell to 27.3% from 34.3% in the second quarter on higher resin costs, and the case now rests on management's promise of a significant fourth-quarter margin recovery. The fourth-quarter report, expected around late February 2027, settles it.
The company reported the margin fall on 29 October 2026. Gross margin was 27.3% against 31.1% a year earlier. Management cited a sharp rise in resin costs and unfavorable product mix, per Plastics Today's report on the results.
Sales were not the problem. Net sales were $171.3 million, up 8.1% from $158.5 million and above the $163.8 million analyst estimate. Adjusted earnings per share from continuing operations were $0.32 against a $0.45 estimate (company release and earnings coverage, 29 October 2026). Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) was $26.6 million, a margin of 15.5% against 18.3% a year earlier.
Management gave no numeric fourth-quarter margin target. The shares closed at $28.32 on 12 November 2026, down 13.8% over three months and 24.4% below the 52-week intraday high of $37.45 set on 4 August 2026 (adjusted daily closes). The view is wrong if the shares recover to the kill line before the report, or if the report shows gross margin back at or above the second-quarter 34.3%.
Bullish and bearish views on Myers Industries, Inc.
The bull case on Myers Industries, Inc. (MYE), in brief: management expects a sharp margin rebound. The bear case: gross margin gave back the second-quarter gain.
Bull case
- Management expects a sharp margin rebound. The company headed its outlook "Significant Sequential Fourth Quarter Margin Improvement" (company release, 29 October 2026). Press coverage attributes the expectation to pricing actions and resin cost stabilization.
- Infrastructure is still growing quickly. Infrastructure sales were $40.8 million against $29.6 million a year earlier, up 38% (company release, 29 October 2026). Management's full-year outlook for the segment remains strong growth.
- Outlook raised for Food & Beverage and Consumer. The company moved Food & Beverage to strong growth from moderate, and Consumer to moderate growth from stable (company release, 29 October 2026).
- Debt keeps falling. Net debt, as defined in the credit agreement, fell $28.5 million in the quarter. Net leverage improved to 1.86 times from 1.94 times in the second quarter, and the Myers Tire Supply sale brought in $23.6 million of proceeds (company release, 29 October 2026).
- Sales beat the estimate. Net sales of $171.3 million topped the $163.8 million estimate. Excluding about $3 million of exited low-margin products, sales rose 10.4% (company release, 29 October 2026).
Bear case
- Gross margin gave back the second-quarter gain. Gross margin was 27.3% against 34.3% in the second quarter, a drop of 7.0 percentage points in one quarter (company releases, 30 July 2026 and 29 October 2026).
- Adjusted earnings missed. Adjusted earnings per share of $0.32 compared with the $0.45 estimate and with $0.53 in the second quarter. The figure was $0.31 a year earlier (company release, 29 October 2026).
- Growth slowed in the two fastest segments. Infrastructure grew 38% after 52% in the second quarter, and Food & Beverage grew 12% after 48% (company releases, 29 October 2026 and 30 July 2026).
- The largest segments are flat. Industrial sales were $68.4 million against $68.6 million, Vehicle was $22.7 million against $22.7 million, and Consumer was $20.1 million against $20.2 million (company release, 29 October 2026). Management now expects Vehicle sales to fall for the year, down from stable.
- Cash generation weakened. Free cash flow was $11.5 million against $21.8 million a year earlier, on operating cash flow of $17.4 million and capital spending of $5.9 million (company release, 29 October 2026).
- Reported results include a discontinued-operations loss. The loss from discontinued operations was $5.6 million, or $0.15 per share, leaving a net loss of $0.9 million, or $0.02 per share (company release, 29 October 2026).
Price setup
The shares closed at $28.32 on 12 November 2026. The 50-day average of $30.62 sits above that close and the 200-day average of $26.74 sits below it (adjusted daily closes, as of 12 November 2026).
The lowest of the recent daily closes was $26.80 on 5 November 2026. The shares then closed at $28.25 on 9 November 2026, $27.97 on 10 November 2026 and $28.74 on 11 November 2026, so they have held above the 200-day average through the first two weeks after the results.
The market is pricing the gross margin miss but not a failed recovery: the shares sit 13.8% below their level three months ago, and still 24.4% below the August high that followed the second-quarter margin gain.
Chief financial officer Samantha Rutty exercised options on 9,611 shares on 22 September 2026 and had 2,341 shares withheld for tax at $31.56 (SEC Form 4, filed 24 September 2026). The company's latest 10-Q was filed on 29 October 2026. No company news has appeared since the results.
Catalysts ahead
- ~26 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 results; the company has not announced a date. First report that can show whether gross margin recovers from 27.3% as management said it would.
What would change the view
A daily close above $32.20, the level the shares held before the third-quarter results of 29 October 2026, which would erase the post-results decline and show the shares leading. A fourth-quarter gross margin at or above the 34.3% second-quarter level would also show that.
What it trades with
Myers makes polymer, metal and rubber products. Its cost line depends on resin prices, so the shares track plastics input costs more closely than the broad industrial cycle. Infrastructure and Food & Beverage drive growth; Industrial, Vehicle and Consumer are cyclical and were flat in the third quarter. The sale of Myers Tire Supply closed on 31 August 2026, so periods before the third quarter of 2026 present it as discontinued operations. Thin analyst coverage means moves tend to follow company reports.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- Third-quarter 2026 net sales were $171.3 million, up 8.1% from $158.5 million; adjusted earnings per share from continuing operations were $0.32 against a $0.45 analyst estimate; GAAP net loss was $0.9 million, or $0.02 per share. Myers Industries third-quarter 2026 results release and earnings coverage · as of
- Third-quarter 2026 gross margin was 27.3% against 31.1% a year earlier; adjusted EBITDA was $26.6 million, a 15.5% margin against 18.3% a year earlier. Myers Industries third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Second-quarter 2026 gross margin was 34.3% and adjusted earnings per share were $0.53, the comparison points for the third-quarter result. Myers Industries second-quarter 2026 earnings release · as of
- Third-quarter segment sales: Industrial $68.4 million (flat), Infrastructure $40.8 million (up 38%), Consumer $20.1 million (flat), Food & Beverage $19.3 million (up 12%), Vehicle $22.7 million (flat). Myers Industries third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Net leverage was 1.86 times against 1.94 times in the second quarter; net debt fell $28.5 million in the quarter; free cash flow was $11.5 million against $21.8 million a year earlier. Myers Industries third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Management headed its outlook 'Significant Sequential Fourth Quarter Margin Improvement'; the Vehicle outlook was cut to down from stable and Food & Beverage was raised to strong growth. Myers Industries third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Chief financial officer Samantha Rutty exercised options on 9,611 shares on 22 September 2026, with 2,341 shares withheld for tax at $31.56. SEC Form 4 filed 24 September 2026 · as of
Sources
- Myers Industries Announces 2026 Third Quarter Results · finviz.com
- Myers Industries Posts Q3 Revenue Growth Despite Margin Pressure · plasticstoday.com
- RTTNews
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