JBHT · J.B. Hunt Transport Services
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $282.79
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
17.7% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $282.79, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 17.7% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $282.79, which is above the 14 August 2026 close and would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A fourth-quarter report with Dedicated operating income up from a year earlier would also show the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 23 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 3,677
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +20.4
- Operating margin (%)
- 6.7
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 967
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −1,120
- Price to earnings (×)
- 32.1
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 1.7
- Enterprise value to operating income (×)
- 23.8
All filed numbers
What J.B. Hunt Transport Services reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 3,677 | +20.4 | 6.7 |
| first filed | 3,495 | +19.4 | 7.4 |
| first filed | 3,057 | +4.6 | 6.8 |
| first filed | 3,097 | −1.6 | 8.0 |
| first filed | 3,053 | −0.5 | 7.9 |
| first filed | 2,928 | 0.0 | 6.7 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 231 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 676 | 172 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −2.3 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 1,494 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 528 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 967 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 3.8 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt plus current maturities | 1,124 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −1,120 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 1,612 |
| Inventory ($M) at 31 December 2025, filed 24 February 2026 | 42.2 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 3,634 |
| Market value ($M) | 21,706 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 22,826 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 1.7 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 23.8 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 32.1 |
| Price to book value (×) | 6.0 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 4.5 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 2.7% of shares outstanding sold short, 2.8 days of average trading to cover, −21.8% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $2K | $12.7M |
The thesis
J.B. Hunt's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Profit is not keeping pace with revenue, and the 2027 contract bid season, when customers renegotiate annual rail-freight contracts, decides whether margins recover.
The third-quarter report (15 October 2026) gave diluted earnings per share of $1.82 against $1.76 a year earlier. Revenue rose 20% to $3.68 billion, while operating income rose 2% to $247.1 million. Fuel-excluded intermodal revenue per load rose 2%, and Dedicated operating income fell 22%. About 10% of intermodal volume reprices in the fourth quarter of 2026 and about 30% in each of the first three quarters of 2027, per Investing.com's summary of the earnings call.
The shares closed at $227.66 on 12 November 2026, up from $217.55 on 6 November 2026 and 24.1% below the 52-week intraday high of $299.76 set on 16 July 2026. No new company results have come since the third-quarter report. The next management update is the Stephens conference on 17 November 2026.
Bullish and bearish views on J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.
The bull case on J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. (JBHT), in brief: intermodal profit still grew. The bear case: profit lags revenue.
Bull case
- Intermodal profit still grew. Third-quarter intermodal operating income was $147.5 million against $125.0 million a year earlier, up 18%, on revenue of $1,827.6 million. Loads rose 8% to 585,582 (company release, 15 October 2026).
- Underlying pricing stayed positive. Intermodal revenue per load rose 11% to $3,121, and 2% excluding fuel surcharges (company release, 15 October 2026).
- Bid season targets margin repair. Per Investing.com's call summary (15 October 2026), management called margin repair the priority for 2027 and said intermodal demand outpaces available capacity.
- Brokerage turned profitable. Integrated Capacity Solutions earned $9.6 million of operating income on $433.8 million of revenue, against a $0.8 million loss a year earlier (company release, 15 October 2026).
- Analyst targets sit above the price. After the report, Stephens set $325, Citizens $300, Wells Fargo $285 and JPMorgan $283, per Benzinga rating items dated 16 October 2026. Benzinga's ratings page showed an average target of about $272 from 19 analysts on 6 November 2026. These are the firms' views.
- Buybacks continue. J.B. Hunt repurchased about 704,000 shares for about $174 million in the third quarter. About $619 million remained under the authorization at 30 September 2026 (company release, 15 October 2026).
Bear case
- Profit lags revenue. Operating income rose 2% while revenue rose 20% (company release, 15 October 2026). Fuel and cost pass-through are inflating revenue faster than profit.
- Dedicated margins fell sharply. Dedicated operating income dropped to $81.7 million from $104.3 million, down 22%, on revenue up 11% to $960.2 million (company release, 15 October 2026). Management tied the decline to growth-related costs and inflation.
- Cost inflation outran pricing. On 16 September 2026 management warned of $25 million of added driver costs and at least $10 million of fuel impact, with diesel at a record $6.31 a gallon. The shares fell 13% that day, per Benzinga.
- Rates and fuel pressure the group. The Federal Reserve raised rates in September for the first time since 2023, and the 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.04% (Benzinga, 18 September 2026). Diesel was up about 70% from a year earlier (Benzinga, 16 September 2026).
- Insiders show no open-market buying. The Form 4 filings dated 2 November 2026 for the chief financial officer and four other officers record option exercises with shares withheld for tax at $221.08. A director's gift of 4,538 shares was filed on 23 October 2026 (SEC Form 4).
Price setup
The shares closed at $227.66 on 12 November 2026, matching the 11 November 2026 close. Earlier closes were $217.55 on 6 November 2026, $224.32 on 9 November 2026 and $226.27 on 10 November 2026. The three-month price change is –18.4%, from a close of $279.71 on 14 August 2026.
The last close is below the 50-day average of $234.47 and the 200-day average of $246.03 (adjusted daily closes). The 52-week closing low is $158.92 on 20 November 2025.
The market has priced in a lasting margin squeeze: the shares sit 24.1% below the July high after the 16 September 2026 cost warning, even with the Benzinga average analyst target near $272 on 6 November 2026. The fourth-quarter report is not yet scheduled. The third-quarter report came on 15 October 2026, which points to mid-January 2027.
Catalysts ahead
- 17 November 2026: Stephens Investment Conference presentation. A management update on contract pricing and demand while the 2027 bid season progresses.
- ~26 November 2026 (est.): Fourth-quarter intermodal repricing window, about 10% of volume. Customer and peer commentary on contract rate increases is the first read on whether 2027 pricing recovers cost inflation.
- 2 December 2026: Goldman Sachs Industrials and Materials Conference presentation. Management's view on fuel, driver costs and bid outcomes ahead of the fourth-quarter report.
- ~14 January 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 earnings report. Shows whether fuel-excluded intermodal pricing and Dedicated profit have turned from the third-quarter readings of +2% and –22%.
What would change the view
A daily close above $282.79, which is above the 14 August 2026 close and would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A fourth-quarter report with Dedicated operating income up from a year earlier would also show the shares leading.
What it trades with
J.B. Hunt trades with the freight group. Knight-Swift, XPO and Old Dominion fell alongside it on 16 September 2026 (Benzinga). Intermodal depends on Class I rail service and rail pricing the company does not set. The shares also respond to diesel prices and to long-term interest rates, which rose in September.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 diluted EPS $1.82 against $1.76 a year earlier; revenue $3.68 billion, up 20%; operating income $247.1 million against $242.7 million, up 2%. J.B. Hunt third-quarter 2026 earnings release (8-K) · as of
- Intermodal operating income $147.5 million against $125.0 million, up 18%; revenue per load $3,121, up 11% and up 2% excluding fuel surcharge; loads 585,582, up 8%. J.B. Hunt third-quarter 2026 earnings release · as of
- Dedicated operating income $81.7 million against $104.3 million, down 22%, on revenue of $960.2 million, up 11%. J.B. Hunt third-quarter 2026 earnings release · as of
- About 10% of intermodal volume reprices in the fourth quarter of 2026 and about 30% in each of the first three quarters of 2027; management named margin repair the priority for the 2027 bid season. Investing.com third-quarter 2026 earnings call summary · as of
- Management warned of $25 million of added driver costs and at least $10 million of fuel impact with diesel at a record $6.31 a gallon; shares fell 13% that day. Benzinga; Talk Business & Politics · as of
- Repurchased about 704,000 shares for about $174 million in the third quarter; about $619 million remained under authorization at 30 September 2026. J.B. Hunt third-quarter 2026 earnings release · as of
- Post-report analyst targets: Stephens $325, Citizens $300, Wells Fargo $285, JPMorgan $283, UBS $273. Benzinga analyst-rating items · as of
- Chief financial officer and four other officers exercised options on 31 October 2026 with shares withheld for tax at $221.08; no open-market sales are listed. SEC Form 4 filings · as of
Sources
- Finviz ·
- J.B. Hunt flags Q3 cost pressures, shares sink 12% · freightwaves.com
- Benzinga
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