ARCB · ArcBest
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a weekly close below $120
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
13.9% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a weekly close below $120.00, on record since 10 November 2026; only a weekly close settles it. The shares are down 6.3% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A weekly close below $120, which would put the shares well under the 200-day moving average and erase the recovery since the 4 November 2026 report. A fourth-quarter Asset-Based operating ratio more than 150 basis points above the third-quarter 90.4% would also break the case.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 4 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 1,211
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +15.5
- Operating margin (%)
- 6.1
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 256
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 12.8
- Price to earnings (×)
- 105.1
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 0.7
- Enterprise value to operating income (×)
- 62.7
All filed numbers
What ArcBest reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 1,211 | +15.5 | 6.1 |
| first filed | 1,185 | +15.9 | −1.7 |
| first filed | 999 | +3.3 | 0.3 |
| first filed | 973 | −2.9 | −0.8 |
| first filed | 1,048 | −1.4 | 5.2 |
| first filed | 1,022 | −5.2 | 3.6 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 70.9 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 28.7 | 51.7 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −1.7 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 300 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 43.8 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 256 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 207 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt plus current maturities | 195 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 12.8 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 489 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 1,292 |
| Market value ($M) | 3,013 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 3,000 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 0.7 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 62.7 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 105.1 |
| Price to book value (×) | 2.3 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 8.5 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 6.9% of shares outstanding sold short, 7.4 days of average trading to cover, +1.7% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $903K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $4.0M |
The thesis
ArcBest's cost cuts and its Asset-Light brokerage recovery make the shares modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months. The fourth-quarter report, estimated for 28 January 2027, settles whether the guided seasonal margin slip and thin pricing leave that recovery intact.
The third-quarter report of 4 November 2026 showed revenue of $1,210.5 million against $1,048.1 million a year earlier. GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) diluted earnings were $2.30 per share against $1.72. Non-GAAP diluted earnings were $2.62 against $1.46 (Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1). Operating ratio is operating expenses as a share of revenue, so a lower figure means a wider margin.
The shares closed at $134.58 on 12 November 2026, up from $127.91 on 6 November 2026. They are still down 5.8% over three months and 23.8% below the intraday 52-week high of $176.69 set on 12 June 2026. That price sits below all four broker targets published after the report, which range from $146 to $175.
Bullish and bearish views on ArcBest Corporation
The bull case on ArcBest Corporation (ARCB), in brief: Asset-Based margins widened again. The bear case: pricing is still the weak spot.
Bull case
- Asset-Based margins widened again. The non-GAAP Asset-Based operating ratio was 90.4% against 92.5% a year earlier, on operating income of $76.3 million against $54.4 million (company release, 4 November 2026). Results exclude charges from the restructuring plan announced on 16 July 2026.
- Asset-Light turned profitable and beat its guide. Operating income was $14.4 million against a $1.6 million loss a year earlier, on revenue of $446.3 million, up 25.4% per day (company release, 4 November 2026). ArcBest had guided to $10–12 million on 8 September 2026.
- Fourth-quarter guide beats the seasonal pattern. ArcBest expects the Asset-Based non-GAAP ratio to worsen by 50 to 150 basis points from the third quarter. Trucking News reported on 4 November 2026 that the usual seasonal decline is about 180 basis points. A basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point.
- Demand shows early recovery. Chief executive Seth Runser described "green shoots" on 4 November 2026. Tonnage typically falls about 3.4% from September to October and fell about 1% this year (Trucking News, 4 November 2026).
- Brokers see room above the price. Citigroup raised its target to $175 with a Buy rating on 5 November 2026. JPMorgan raised its target to $164 with a Neutral rating on 5 November 2026.
Bear case
- Pricing is still the weak spot. Asset-Based billed revenue per hundredweight rose 1.1% from a year earlier in the third quarter. Shipments per day fell 3.0% while tonnage per day rose 9.6% on heavier shipments (Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1, 4 November 2026). Old Dominion's update of 3 September 2026 showed quarter-to-date revenue per hundredweight up 11.3% including fuel.
- Asset-Light income is guided down. The fourth-quarter outlook is $7–10 million, below the $14.4 million reported for the third quarter (company release, 4 November 2026).
- Two brokers cut targets after the report. UBS lowered its target to $146 from $154 with a Neutral rating (6 November 2026). TD Cowen lowered its target to $146 with a Hold rating (5 November 2026).
- Insiders have sold into the rebound. Chief Commercial Officer Ralph Sorg sold 6,000 shares on 9 November 2026 at an average of $131.28 (SEC Form 4, filed 10 November 2026). Controller Jason Parks sold 855 shares at $135.09 on 15 September 2026 (SEC Form 4).
- Truckload spillover may fade. Trucking News reported that tighter truckload capacity from federal enforcement pushed freight into LTL (less-than-truckload) networks and helped results. If capacity loosens, the tonnage lift loses part of its source.
Price setup
The shares closed at $134.58 on 12 November 2026. That is above the 50-day moving average of $131.1 and the 200-day moving average of $126.46, both on adjusted closes. Closes since the report ran $133.59 on 5 November 2026, $127.91 on 6 November 2026, $132.54 on 9 November 2026, $133.85 on 10 November 2026 and $135.91 on 11 November 2026.
The three-month change of −5.8% is measured from the $142.88 close on 14 August 2026. The 52-week closing low was $59.62 on 20 November 2025, so the shares have more than doubled over the year despite the pullback from June.
Regular quarterly dividend of $0.12 was declared on 30 October 2026. The recovery above both averages has taken the shares out of the weakest part of their range, and the 200-day average is the nearest support-type reference below the price.
Catalysts ahead
- ~1 December 2026 (est.): ISM Manufacturing PMI for November 2026. Industrial demand feeds LTL volumes and tests the 'green shoots' ArcBest's CEO described.
- ~3 December 2026 (est.): Old Dominion November 2026 operating update. Shows whether the LTL pricing gap with ArcBest, which reported 1.1% growth in revenue per hundredweight, persists.
- ~28 January 2027 (est.): ArcBest fourth-quarter 2026 results. Tests the guided 50 to 150 basis point Asset-Based ratio slip and the $7–10 million Asset-Light range.
What would change the view
A weekly close below $120, which would put the shares well under the 200-day moving average and erase the recovery since the 4 November 2026 report. A fourth-quarter Asset-Based operating ratio more than 150 basis points above the third-quarter 90.4% would also break the case.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Pricing stays weak while tonnage rests on heavier shipments. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter 2026 shipments per day still down from a year earlier with revenue per hundredweight growth near the 1.1% reported for the third quarter.
- Asset-Based margins slip by more than the seasonal guide. Confirmed by: a fourth-quarter 2026 non-GAAP Asset-Based operating ratio more than 150 basis points above the third-quarter level of 90.4%.
- Asset-Light profit fades from the third-quarter peak. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter 2026 Asset-Light operating income below the $7 million low end of the guide.
- Truckload capacity loosens and the spillover into LTL reverses. Confirmed by: peer updates in December describing softer truckload rates or falling LTL tonnage per day.
- Insider selling and divided analyst targets signal limited conviction at current prices. Confirmed by: further Form 4 sales by executives, or target cuts and downgrades from the brokers that cut on 5 November 2026.
What it trades with
ArcBest trades with other less-than-truckload carriers. Saia and Old Dominion monthly and quarterly updates move the group. ArcBest's Asset-Light segment follows truckload and brokerage rates. Industrial demand readings such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) feed freight volumes across the sector.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $1,210.5 million against $1,048.1 million; GAAP diluted EPS $2.30 against $1.72; non-GAAP diluted EPS $2.62 against $1.46. ArcBest third-quarter 2026 results, Form 8-K Ex. 99.1 · as of
- Non-GAAP Asset-Based operating ratio was 90.4% against 92.5% a year earlier, with operating income of $76.3 million against $54.4 million. ArcBest third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Asset-Light operating income was $14.4 million against a $1.6 million loss a year earlier; revenue was $446.3 million, up 25.4% per day. ArcBest third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Asset-Based tonnage per day rose 9.6%, shipments per day fell 3.0%, and billed revenue per hundredweight rose 1.1% from a year earlier. ArcBest third-quarter 2026 results, Form 8-K Ex. 99.1 · as of
- ArcBest expects the fourth-quarter Asset-Based non-GAAP operating ratio to worsen by 50 to 150 basis points and guides fourth-quarter Asset-Light operating income to $7–10 million. ArcBest third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- October tonnage fell about 1% from September versus a typical 3.4% decline; CEO Seth Runser cited early demand 'green shoots'. Trucking News, 4 November 2026 · as of
- Citigroup raised its target to $175 (Buy) and JPMorgan to $164 (Neutral); UBS cut to $146 from $154 (Neutral) and TD Cowen cut to $146 (Hold). Analyst rating headlines, 5 November 2026 and 6 November 2026 · as of
- Chief Commercial Officer Ralph Sorg sold 6,000 shares on the open market at an average of $131.28 on 9 November 2026. SEC Form 4 filed 10 November 2026 · as of
Sources
- ARCBEST CORP /TX/ - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- ArcBest's Runser says demand 'green shoots' are emerging · ttnews.com ·
- ArcBest beats as cost cuts and an asset light rebound drive earnings but LTL yield remains the soft spot · finviz.com
- 3Q26 Earnings Release · s203.q4cdn.com
Related · shared themes
FWRD
Forward Air
Forward Air Corporation's debt burden is falling on rising earnings: net leverage dropped to 4.7 times at 30 September 2026 from 5.2 times…
CMBT
CMB.TECH NV
CMB.TECH's record crude-tanker earnings look largely priced in after a crowded 2026 tanker rally, and the shares sit near their 200-day…
HTLD
Heartland Express
Heartland Express is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: its third-quarter 2026 operating ratio was 98.7% against 91.0% in…
WNC
Wabash National
Wabash National's trailer orders have recovered faster than its profits, so the shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three…