XMTR · Xometry
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $109.01
Note written ·
How this view changed
- · Rating raised from Low to Medium. Results, 3 November 2026: Xometry reported third-quarter 2026 revenue of $252 million, up 40%, and raised 2026 revenue growth guidance to at least 37% from 33–34% and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $68–68.5 million from $60–62 million.
Price against the kill line
9.7% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $109.01, set on 12 November 2026. The shares are up 33.3% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $109.01, the lowest close since the 3 November 2026 report, which would show the post-earnings advance failing. Fourth-quarter revenue under the $254 million low end of guidance would also prove the call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 3 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 252
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +39.7
- Gross margin (%)
- 39.1
- Operating margin (%)
- 0.0
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 177
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 8.0
All filed numbers
What Xometry reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 252 | +39.7 | 39.1 | 0.0 |
| first filed | 229 | +41.1 | 38.0 | −2.4 |
| first filed | 205 | +35.9 | 38.3 | −2.5 |
| first filed | 192 | +29.5 | 39.1 | −4.6 |
| first filed | 181 | +27.5 | 39.9 | −6.1 |
| first filed | 163 | +22.6 | 40.1 | −6.3 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 2.6 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −17.3 | 1.9 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +18.7 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 29.8 |
| Capital spending ($M) four quarters to 31 December 2025, filed 24 February 2026 | 30.2 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 505 |
| Debt ($M) convertible debt | 328 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 177 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +56.0% on a year | 17.7 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 152 |
| Inventory ($M) | 3.8 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 614 |
| Market value ($M) | 7,232 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 7,055 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 8.0 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 11.8 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 6.3% of shares outstanding sold short, 5.1 days of average trading to cover, −16.8% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $7.8M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $4.0M | $24.4M |
The thesis
Xometry's online marketplace for custom-made parts beat its own guidance and raised its 2026 outlook on 3 November 2026, which leaves the shares modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months. The fourth-quarter report settles it: the company guides to $254–256 million of revenue and $22.0–22.5 million of adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, as the company defines it).
Third-quarter revenue was $252 million, up 40% year over year, against guidance of $234–236 million. Marketplace revenue was $238 million, up 43%. Net income attributable to common stockholders was $1.9 million, against a loss of $11.6 million a year earlier, per the Xometry earnings release (8-K Exhibit 99.1).
The shares closed at $122.47 on 11 November 2026, 29.6% above the $94.47 close of 13 August 2026. The market has already paid for much of the beat. At least three analyst targets set after the report sit below that close, so the next leg depends on fourth-quarter delivery.
Bullish and bearish views on Xometry, Inc.
The bull case on Xometry, Inc. (XMTR), in brief: third quarter beat the guide by a wide margin. The bear case: growth is guided to slow.
Bull case
- Third quarter beat the guide by a wide margin. Revenue of $252 million compares with the $234–236 million guided on 4 August 2026. Benzinga put the consensus estimate at $235.561 million and adjusted earnings per share at $0.28 against $0.18 expected.
- Outlook raised again. Full-year 2026 revenue growth is now at least 37%, up from 33–34%. Full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance is $68–68.5 million, up from $60–62 million, per the 3 November 2026 release.
- Pricing held while volume grew. Marketplace gross margin was 36.0%, up 30 basis points year over year, per the release. That answers the concern that growth was being bought with lower prices.
- Fourth-quarter guide is above expectations. Revenue guidance of $254–256 million compares with a $247.793 million estimate, per Benzinga's 3 November 2026 report. Adjusted EBITDA guidance is $22.0–22.5 million against $8.4 million in the fourth quarter of 2025.
- Analysts raised targets on 4 November 2026. JPMorgan and Wedbush set $140, Citizens $135, Citigroup $132 and Rosenblatt $130. Cash and marketable securities were $505 million at 30 September 2026.
Bear case
- Growth is guided to slow. The fourth-quarter revenue guide equals 32–33% growth, against 40% in the third quarter, per the release. Services revenue grew only 2%, to $14.4 million.
- The price has moved past several targets. RBC's target is $117 (Sector Perform), Cantor Fitzgerald's $114 (Overweight) and UBS's $108 (Neutral), all set on 4 November 2026. The close of $122.47 on 11 November 2026 is above all three.
- Insiders keep selling. Under Rule 10b5-1 plans, director Randolph Altschuler sold 10,000 shares at an average $108.90 on 5 November 2026. Chief Financial Officer James Miln sold 4,000 at $113.81 on 6 November 2026, and director Fabio Rosati sold 1,800 at $120.52 on 9 November 2026, per SEC Form 4 filings.
- Large October swings had no stated cause. The shares fell from $107.90 on 13 October 2026 to $90.91 on 16 October 2026 with no company news, then rose after the report. The range between those closes shows how far sentiment moves on this name.
- The profit record is one quarter long. Net income of $1.9 million in the third quarter follows a $5.31 million net loss in the second quarter of 2026, so the fourth-quarter report must confirm the turn.
Price setup
The shares closed at $122.47 on 11 November 2026. The 52-week intraday high is $127.49, set the same day, and the close is 3.9% below it. Closes after the report were $113.52 on 4 November 2026, $114.95 on 6 November 2026, $120.59 on 9 November 2026 and $119.31 on 10 November 2026.
The 50-day average of adjusted closes is $99.9 and the 200-day average is $77.99, both as of 11 November 2026. The shares sit well above both. The 52-week closing low is $36.10, set on 12 March 2026.
The high-end analyst targets of $140 (JPMorgan, Wedbush) sit 14% above the last close. A hold above the post-report closes would show buyers absorbing the insider sales. A return to the October range of $90–$95 would erase the post-report advance.
Catalysts ahead
- ~February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results, date not yet announced by the company. Tests the guided $254–256M of revenue, $22.0–22.5M of adjusted EBITDA and the full-year outlook of at least 37% growth and $68–68.5M adjusted EBITDA.
What would change the view
A daily close below $109.01, the lowest close since the 3 November 2026 report, which would show the post-earnings advance failing. Fourth-quarter revenue under the $254 million low end of guidance would also prove the call wrong.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Growth slows faster than the guided step-down from 40% to 32–33%. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter 2026 revenue below the $254M low end of guidance, or a 2027 outlook implying growth under 30%.
- Profit gains stall after one quarter of GAAP net income. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA below the $22.0M low end of guidance, or a return to a GAAP net loss.
- Marketplace pricing weakens as volume grows. Confirmed by: marketplace gross margin below the 36.0% reported for the third quarter of 2026 in the fourth-quarter release.
- Continued insider sales and a price above several analyst targets cap further gains. Confirmed by: additional Form 4 sales by officers and directors through late November, or further target cuts from RBC, Cantor Fitzgerald or UBS.
- A new equity or convertible-debt offering dilutes holders after the price rise. Confirmed by: a company prospectus or 8-K announcing a share or convertible-note offering.
What it trades with
Xometry sells made-to-order parts to industrial customers, so revenue follows manufacturing activity and small-business ordering. The shares moved on company-specific news in both directions in October and November, not on sector news. The dual-class structure leaves control with founders, while public Class A shareholders carry the price risk.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- Q3 2026 revenue was $252M, up 40% year over year; marketplace revenue $238M, up 43%; services revenue $14.4M, up 2%; adjusted EBITDA $21.4M; net income attributable to common stockholders $1.9M versus an $11.6M loss in Q3 2025. Xometry Q3 2026 earnings release, 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Marketplace gross margin was 36.0%, up 30 basis points year over year; cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were $505M at 30 September 2026. Xometry Q3 2026 earnings release, 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Q4 2026 guidance: revenue $254–256M (32–33% growth), adjusted EBITDA $22.0–22.5M; full-year revenue growth at least 37% (from 33–34%), full-year adjusted EBITDA $68–68.5M (from $60–62M). Xometry Q3 2026 earnings release, 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Q3 adjusted EPS $0.28 versus $0.18 estimate; sales $252.430M versus $235.561M estimate; Q4 sales guide $254–256M versus $247.793M estimate. Benzinga · as of
- 10-Q for the period ended 30 September 2026 shows quarterly revenue of $252.44M against $180.72M a year earlier. SEC XBRL, Form 10-Q · as of
- Post-report price targets: JPMorgan $140, Wedbush $140, Citizens $135, Citigroup $132, Rosenblatt $130, RBC $117, Cantor Fitzgerald $114, UBS $108. Benzinga analyst-action reports · as of
- Director Randolph Altschuler sold 10,000 shares at an average $108.90 on 5 November 2026; CFO James Miln sold 4,000 at $113.81 on 6 November 2026; director Fabio Rosati sold 1,800 at $120.52 on 9 November 2026, all under Rule 10b5-1 plans. SEC Form 4 filings · as of
Sources
- Xometry, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
- Xometry Reports Record Third Quarter 2026 Results · finviz.com
- Finimize
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