XMTR · Xometry, Inc. · Stock research

Current Thesis

The binary that hung over this name since May resolved on 2026-08-04, and the tape took three sessions to price it. Q2 revenue came in at $229.3M, +41% YoY, against management's own $214–216M guide and roughly $215.137M consensus; marketplace revenue was $215.4M, +45% YoY versus a guided 35–36%; Adjusted EBITDA was $14.1M against an $11–12M guide. This was the first quarter reported by Sanjeev Singh Sahni, who took the CEO chair effective 2026-07-01, and rather than rebase the outlook he raised it: FY2026 revenue growth to 33–34% from 27–28%, on roughly 37% marketplace growth, with FY Adjusted EBITDA of $60–62M against $18.5M in FY2025. The narrative leg an investor is buying is an AI-quoted custom-manufacturing marketplace taking share through a reshoring cycle — Q2 growth of 41% against legacy comparator Protolabs at +10.6% on 2026-07-31 — now with the operating leverage visible in the P&L rather than promised. Price did not reward it on the day: $87.01 close on 08-03 into the print, $87.09 on 08-06 after it, then a 6.95% session on 08-07 to $93.15, back above the $90.65 50-day. The $106.08 all-time high of 2026-07-21 is still unreclaimed.

Bullish and bearish views on Xometry, Inc.

The model's bull view on Xometry, Inc. (XMTR), in brief: Growth accelerated for a fourth consecutive quarter into a raise, not a fade. The bear view: Management's own Q3 guide ends the acceleration. Both cases follow in full.

Bull Case

• Growth accelerated for a fourth consecutive quarter into a raise, not a fade. Q2 marketplace revenue $215.4M, +45% YoY (2026-08-04 release), off a +40% Q1 comparison and a guided 35–36%. CFO James Miln put Adjusted EBITDA margin at 6.2%, up 380 basis points YoY.
• The FY reset is six points wide. FY2026 revenue growth guide moved to 33–34% from the 27–28% set on 2026-05-07, which itself had been raised from "at least 21%." FY Adjusted EBITDA $60–62M versus $18.5M in FY2025.
• Q3 is guided above where the street was. $234–236M (30–31% growth, ~33% marketplace) against a $221.633M consensus; Adjusted EBITDA $16–17M.
• Cohort mechanics improved, not just the headline. Active buyers 89,557, +20% YoY, with the strongest net additions in ten quarters; accounts spending $50,000+ over the trailing twelve months reached 2,039, +23% YoY; marketplace revenue per buyer +21% (Q2 slides, 2026-08-04).
• Marketplace gross margin held at 34.7%, flat against Q1, with marketplace gross profit $74.8M and total gross profit $87.2M (38% of revenue) — the scale-versus-margin trade bears flagged in May did not show up in Q2.
• The sell-side ladder reset in one session. On 2026-08-05: Citigroup Buy to $110, Cantor Fitzgerald Overweight to $110, Goldman Sachs Neutral to $104, RBC Sector Perform to $100, UBS Neutral to $95. Wedbush assumed at Outperform with $126 on 2026-07-16.
• Balance sheet is not the constraint. Cash and marketable securities of $517M at 2026-06-30, after the 2026-06-02 secondary of 2,647,059 shares at $85.00 and the $50M Siemens affiliate purchase of 1,049,759 Class A shares disclosed 2026-05-07.
• Demand backdrop is confirming. July ISM Manufacturing printed 55.6% on 2026-08-03, a four-year high, with New Orders 56.7%.

Bear Case

• Management's own Q3 guide ends the acceleration. Marketplace growth is guided to roughly 33% in Q3 after 45% in Q2. The multiple was built on a sequence of upside surprises; the company has now told the market the second derivative turns down this quarter.
• Ratings did not follow targets. Three of the five revisions on 2026-08-05 — UBS, RBC, Goldman Sachs — raised price targets while keeping neutral-equivalent ratings, and UBS's $95 sits barely above the 2026-08-07 close of $93.15. The upgrade cycle that usually accompanies a six-point guide raise has not happened.
• GAAP is still red. Q2 net loss $5.3M; trailing twelve-month net income −$30.81M as of 2026-08-07. Adjusted EBITDA is the guided profit metric, and the equity trades at 6.61x trailing sales, 5.27x forward.
• Share count is climbing into strength. 57.32M shares outstanding as of 2026-08-07, +4.21% YoY, following the June secondary priced at $85.00. A company that sold stock well below the July high has an established willingness to issue.
• The initial reaction was nothing. A print that beat consensus revenue by roughly $14M and lifted the year produced a net-flat two sessions ($87.01 on 08-03 to $87.09 on 08-06) before the 08-07 move — thin evidence of a queue of buyers waiting on the number.
• The macro comparison gets harder. With ISM at a four-year high and New Orders at 56.7%, a soft quarter later this year cannot be attributed to the cycle.

Setup & Price Structure

The narrative is ACCELERATING, and the dates are 2026-08-04 (revenue growth accelerating a fourth straight quarter, FY guide raised 27–28% → 33–34%), 2026-08-05 (five price-target raises in one session) and 2026-08-07 (the $93.15 close reclaiming the $90.65 50-day). What holds the label back from a stronger read: the 2026-07-21 high of $106.08 has not been retested, and the pre-print drawdown low — an $85.72 close on 2026-07-31 — sits directly on the $85.00 June secondary print, making that the reference shelf rather than a distant one.

Structure, as of the 2026-08-07 close of $93.15 (+6.95% on the day): 50-day $90.65, 200-day $65.34, market capitalisation $5.34B, twelve-month price appreciation 111.60%. The gap between spot and the 200-day is the crowding observable — this is an extended small-cap whose entire re-rate happened inside twelve months.

Positioning evidence, stated as observables: short interest of 3.16M shares, 6.04% of float and 5.51% of shares outstanding, is a mid-July settlement and predates the print, so it says nothing about post-earnings behaviour; the first reading spanning the release publishes around 2026-08-26. Insider sales continue to run through pre-set Rule 10b5-1 plans, with a portion covering RSU tax withholding. No earnings event sits inside the next 30 days — the next print is roughly three months out — which removes the near-term binary that dominated the May-to-August window.

Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)

• ~2026-08-12 (est.) — publication of the 2026-07-31 short-interest settlement. Shows whether the 3.16M-share base was rebuilt during the late-July drawdown.
• 2026-08-14 — Q2 2026 13F filing deadline.
• ~2026-08-26 (est.) — publication of the 2026-08-14 short-interest settlement, the first reading that spans the earnings reaction.
• 2026-09-01 (est.) — ISM Manufacturing PMI for August. The check on whether July's 55.6% four-year high was a spike or a level, and the cleanest independent read on US custom-manufacturing demand between now and the Q3 print.

What Would Change Our Mind

The structure that carries this is the $85.00 secondary shelf from 2026-06-02, which the 2026-07-31 low of $85.72 tested and held. Losing it would mean buyers of a 2.6M-share placement are underwater and the entire post-print re-rate has been given back: a weekly close below $85 is the gradeable break, and it would put price back beneath both the 50-day at $90.65 and the July shelf at once.

Separately, the fundamental case turns on whether the Q3 deceleration management guided is the floor or the start of a trend. Marketplace growth printing below the roughly 33% guided for Q3, or a Q4 implied exit rate stepping under 30%, would take away the argument that 45% was the run-rate rather than a comparison artefact. A cut to the newly raised 33–34% FY frame at the next report would be the same message in stronger form. On the demand side, an August ISM print below 52 on 2026-09-01, with New Orders back under 50, would remove the macro confirmation that arrived on 2026-08-03. Any new registered offering, ATM programme or block sale after the June secondary would say management still treats strength as a funding window.

Correlation Notes

• Protolabs (PRLB) is the read-across on legacy on-demand manufacturing: Q2 revenue $149.3M, +10.6% YoY at a 46.4% gross margin, FY2026 growth guide raised to 8–10% (2026-07-31). The two move on the same reshoring headline flow, with Xometry carrying the growth premium and the lower gross margin.
• ISM Manufacturing PMI is the demand proxy the quote funnel keys off. July 55.6%, New Orders 56.7% (2026-08-03).
• Siemens is both a customer channel and a holder: SBI GmbH agreed to $50,000,000 for 1,049,759 Class A shares priced off the 20-day VWAP ending 2026-05-05, alongside embedding Xometry sourcing into Siemens Xcelerator (8-K, 2026-05-07).
• High-beta small-cap growth. With the 200-day at $65.34 against a $93.15 close, the name's drawdown behaviour tracks the small-cap growth complex more than the industrials it serves.
• Rates and credit enter through the capital structure: $250M of 0.75% convertible senior notes due 2030 plus the residual 1.00% notes due 2027 that the June 2025 refinancing did not retire.