DAVE · Dave
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $336.22
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
17.6% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $336.22, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 18.9% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $336.22, the close before the 4 November 2026 results, which would erase the post-results drop and show the shares leading the S&P 500. A fourth-quarter revenue report above the top of the $746–750 million full-year guide would also show the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Financials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 4 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 198
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +31.2
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 44.8
- Price to earnings (×)
- 19.8
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 5.5
All filed numbers
What Dave reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) |
|---|---|---|
| first filed | 198 | +31.2 |
| first filed | 171 | +29.6 |
| first filed | 158 | +46.7 |
| first filed | 164 | +62.4 |
| first filed | 151 | +63.0 |
| first filed | 132 | +64.5 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 74.5 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 194 | 63.8 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −4.2 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 325 |
| Capital spending ($M) four quarters to 30 June 2026, filed 4 November 2026 | 0.4 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 313 |
| Debt ($M) convertible debt plus credit line | 269 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 44.8 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 274 |
| Market value ($M) | 3,857 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 3,812 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 5.5 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | 19.8 |
| Price to book value (×) | 14.1 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 17.1% of shares outstanding sold short, 9.1 days of average trading to cover, +4.0% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $31.5M |
The thesis
Dave Inc. is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The shares closed at $267.37 on 12 November 2026, down 20.1% over three months, even though the company beat third-quarter estimates and raised its 2026 outlook on 4 November 2026. A court ruling or settlement in the Department of Justice (DOJ) and Federal Trade Commission (FTC) case, or the fourth-quarter report, settles whether the regulatory worry or the operating results prevail.
The market has priced the regulatory risk ahead of the results. After the 4 November 2026 beat and raise, the shares closed at $275.34 on 5 November 2026 and $267.37 on 12 November 2026. The last close sits below the 50-day average of $341.04 and the 200-day average of $291.97, and 41.7% below the 52-week intraday high of $458.25 set on 21 July 2026.
Third-quarter revenue was $197.7 million, up 31% from a year earlier, against a $191.551 million estimate (company results, 4 November 2026). Adjusted earnings per share were $4.39 against a $4.33 estimate. Full-year revenue guidance rose to $746–750 million from $725–735 million.
Bullish and bearish views on Dave Inc.
The bull case on Dave Inc. (DAVE), in brief: beat and raise. Revenue of $197.7 million and adjusted EPS of $4.39 both beat estimates (company results, 4 November 2026). Guidance now stands at $746–750 million of revenue, $327–330 million of adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization)… The bear case: good results did not hold the shares.
Bull case
- Beat and raise. Revenue of $197.7 million and adjusted EPS of $4.39 both beat estimates (company results, 4 November 2026). Guidance now stands at $746–750 million of revenue, $327–330 million of adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) and $17.45–17.65 of adjusted diluted EPS, each above the prior range.
- Credit improved. The 28-day past-due rate was 2.09% in the third quarter, against 2.15% a year earlier (company results, 4 November 2026). Management said September credit indicators improved after the CashAI v6.0 model rollout, according to Quartr's earnings summary.
- Members and originations grew. Monthly transacting members were 3.15 million, up 18%, and ExtraCash originations were $2.5 billion, up 23% (company results, 4 November 2026).
- Funding widened. The Coastal Community Bank funding balance rose to about $159 million from $93 million, and the $75 million Victory Park facility was repaid in early October 2026 (company results, 4 November 2026).
- Analysts remain above the price. JPMorgan kept Overweight on 5 November 2026 and cut its price target to $435 from $480. Loop Capital's Buy target was $500 on 9 September 2026. Both sit far above the $267.37 close of 12 November 2026.
Bear case
- Good results did not hold the shares. The close was $334.57 on 14 August 2026 and $267.37 on 12 November 2026, and the three-month change is −20.1% (adjusted daily closes). The shares fell from $281.96 on 11 November 2026 to $267.37 on 12 November 2026.
- Regulatory headlines escalated. A company-news headline on 5 November 2026 reads "Dave Inc. Faces Regulatory Subpoenas and Inquiries". On 11 November 2026 the law firm Holzer & Holzer announced an investigation into Dave. The visible text of the third-quarter 10-Q does not itemise a new subpoena, so the scope of any inquiry is unconfirmed.
- Legal costs are rising. Legal settlement and litigation expenses were $6.2 million in the third quarter and $11.3 million for the nine months (company results, 4 November 2026). The legal settlement accrual was $10.035 million at 30 September 2026, up from $7.838 million at 31 December 2025 (10-Q). The amended complaint filed 30 December 2024 names CEO Jason Wilk personally and seeks civil penalties.
- Earnings growth lags revenue. GAAP net income was $63.8 million, down 31%, against a prior-year quarter that included a $27.4 million tax benefit. The credit-loss provision rose to $36.549 million from $29.846 million a year earlier (10-Q). Adjusted EBITDA margin was 41%.
- The share base is small. The 10-Q cover shows 11,478,984 Class A and 1,314,082 Class V shares outstanding at 26 October 2026, so a single headline can move the price sharply.
Price setup
The last close was $267.37 on 12 November 2026. That is below the 200-day average of $291.97 and the 50-day average of $341.04, both as of that close. Closes since the results ran $275.34 (5 November 2026), $278.59 (6 November 2026), $282.65 (9 November 2026), $273.85 (10 November 2026) and $281.96 (11 November 2026).
The 52-week intraday high is $458.25 (21 July 2026). The 52-week closing low is $155.92 (5 February 2026). No closing price between the 12 November 2026 close and that February low marks a prior floor.
CEO Jason Wilk and CFO Kyle Beilman each had shares withheld for tax on 2 September 2026 at $372.85 (SEC Form 4, filed 4 September 2026). These were tax withholdings on stock awards.
Catalysts ahead
- ~January 2027 (est.): Expiry of Dave's warrant and earnout securities. Ends the non-cash remeasurement that keeps GAAP and adjusted results far apart.
- ~February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 results and 2027 outlook. Shows whether revenue lands inside or above the $746–750 million full-year guide and whether credit costs keep pace with originations.
What would change the view
A daily close above $336.22, the close before the 4 November 2026 results, which would erase the post-results drop and show the shares leading the S&P 500. A fourth-quarter revenue report above the top of the $746–750 million full-year guide would also show the shares leading.
What it trades with
Dave is a bank-partnered consumer lender, so its shares trade with consumer-credit fintech and with the market's appetite for high-volatility stocks. JPMorgan's 15 September 2026 initiation compared Dave with Visa and Chime on growth and margins. The shares fell after a results beat, which points to company-specific regulatory worry. The sample of post-results sessions is too small to measure a link to peers.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $197.7 million, up 31% from a year earlier; adjusted EPS was $4.39 against a $4.33 estimate and revenue beat a $191.551 million estimate. Dave third-quarter 2026 results release and news summary · as of
- Full-year 2026 guidance was raised to revenue $746–750 million, adjusted EBITDA $327–330 million and adjusted diluted EPS $17.45–17.65 (prior: $725–735 million, $315–325 million, $17.00–17.50). Dave third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- The 28-day past-due rate was 2.09% against 2.15% a year earlier; monthly transacting members were 3.15 million, up 18%; ExtraCash originations were $2.5 billion, up 23%. Dave third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Adjusted EBITDA was $81.5 million (41% margin); GAAP net income was $63.8 million, down 31% against a prior-year quarter that included a $27.4 million tax benefit. Dave third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Provision for credit losses was $36.549 million against $29.846 million a year earlier; the legal settlement accrual was $10.035 million at 30 September 2026 against $7.838 million at 31 December 2025. Dave 10-Q for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 · as of
- Legal settlement and litigation expenses were $6.2 million in the third quarter and $11.3 million for the nine months, including the FTC/DOJ matter. Dave third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- JPMorgan maintained Overweight on Dave and lowered its price target to $435 from $480. Benzinga analyst action headline · as of
- Law firm Holzer & Holzer announced an investigation into Dave Inc. Company news headline · as of
Sources
- Dave reports third quarter 2026 financial results · finviz.com
- SEC EDGAR
- Dave (DAVE) Q3 2026 earnings summary · quartr.com
- MarketBeat ·
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