ATEX · Anterix
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $91.81
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
12.7% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $91.81, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 12.5% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $91.81, the 29 October 2026 close, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong; so would an announced sale of the spectrum or a signed nine-figure utility agreement.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Communication Services
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 10 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 2.0
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +26.2
- Operating margin (%)
- −291.6
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 3.0
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 108
- Price to earnings (×)
- 220.0
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 197.3
- Enterprise value to operating income (×)
- 304.9
All filed numbers
What Anterix reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 2.0 | +26.2 | −291.6 |
| first filed | 2.0 | +38.1 | −12.6 |
| first filed | 2.0 | +41.0 | 1013.0 |
| first filed | 1.6 | +0.4 | −576.0 |
| first filed | 1.6 | +0.1 | 3909.5 |
| first filed | 1.4 | −7.0 | 1585.4 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −4.7 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 7.2 | −5.0 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +4.8 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 3.1 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 0.1 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 3.0 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 108 |
| Debt ($M) | None reported |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) no debt reported | 108 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +32.9% on a year | 173 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 287 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,577 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) no debt reported | 1,469 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) no debt reported | 197.3 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) no debt reported | 304.9 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 220.0 |
| Price to book value (×) | 5.5 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 0.2 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 8.4% of shares outstanding sold short, 6.1 days of average trading to cover, +0.2% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $6.8M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $75K | $24.6M |
The thesis
Anterix's 900 megahertz (MHz) spectrum case still has no signed transaction behind it, so the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it. A signed utility agreement or a deal from the strategic review would settle the question. The Q2 fiscal 2027 report on 10 November 2026 gave neither. It disclosed no new utility agreement, no share repurchases and no timetable for the review.
The report for the quarter ended 30 September 2026 showed spectrum revenue of $1.958 million and a net loss of $4.993 million, or $0.25 per share. Revenue missed the $2.054 million consensus estimate, according to the Benzinga results headline. Contracted proceeds outstanding were $33.1 million at 30 September 2026, the same figure management gave for 30 June 2026. Anterix now expects about $9.6 million of that to arrive in the rest of fiscal 2027.
On the 11 November 2026 call, chief executive Scott Lang said the utility pipeline had grown from about a dozen to 16 opportunities, with potential values from seven to nine digits. He said more than one strategic party is involved and that Anterix is "not dependent on 1 buyer, 1 structure, or 1 timeline", according to the Motley Fool transcript. A larger pipeline and plural counterparties are still talk, not contracts. The shares closed at $76.53 on 11 November 2026, 16.4% lower than three months earlier, which shows the market is not paying for the pipeline before a contract appears. The rating is Low for that reason.
Bullish and bearish views on Anterix Inc.
The bull case on Anterix Inc. (ATEX), in brief: the licence-exchange gain arrived as guided. The bear case: no new utility agreement was disclosed.
Bull case
- The licence-exchange gain arrived as guided. On 12 August 2026 the chief financial officer guided to at least single-digit millions of exchange gains. The 10 November 2026 report booked a $6.1 million gain from exchanging narrowband for broadband licences in six counties.
- The deal pipeline grew to 16. On the 11 November 2026 call, Scott Lang said active utility opportunities rose from about a dozen to 16, and that at least half are advanced or late-stage.
- The FCC opened a door for satellites. On 29 October 2026 the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) advanced a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) on Supplemental Coverage from Space. It considers adding the 900 MHz band, according to the company's 10 November 2026 release.
- A comparable spectrum sale sets a price marker. On the 11 November 2026 call, management cited Grain's nationwide 800 MHz sale to SpaceX for a reported $8 billion. The chief financial officer put that sale at roughly $1.70 per megahertz-POP (megahertz times population covered).
- The balance sheet carries no debt. Cash and equivalents were $107.467 million at 30 September 2026, plus $3.172 million in restricted escrow. The $250 million repurchase authority runs to 22 September 2029.
Bear case
- No new utility agreement was disclosed. The 10 November 2026 release named none, and contracted proceeds outstanding stayed at $33.1 million. Scott Lang said on 11 November 2026 that utilities "have had to sharpen their pencil."
- The cash pile is shrinking. Cash fell to about $107.5 million at 30 September 2026 from about $116 million at 30 June 2026. Anterix spent $5.4 million on spectrum clearing in the quarter.
- The buyback has not started. Anterix repurchased no shares in the quarter. On 11 November 2026 the chief financial officer called preserving liquidity and patience the near-term priorities.
- Insiders sold through September and October. SEC Form 4 filings show open-market sales by the CEO (15,000 shares at $80.00 on 21 September 2026), a director, the chief marketing officer and the chief legal officer. The chief financial officer sold 4,981 shares at an average of $80.43 on 9 October 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan.
- The strategic review has no end date. Management gave no timetable and named no buyer on 11 November 2026. That leaves the case without a dated trigger inside three months.
Price setup
The shares closed at $76.53 on 11 November 2026. That is below the 50-day moving average of $81.30 and above the 200-day moving average of $67.46. The close is 32.3% below the 52-week intraday high of $113.00, set on 20 July 2026, and down 16.4% from $91.49 on 13 August 2026.
The sessions around the report were volatile. The shares closed at $77.76 on 4 November 2026, $68.52 on 5 November 2026, $74.36 on 6 November 2026 and $80.78 on 9 November 2026. They closed at $75.47 on 10 November 2026 before the results. Investing.com reported a drop of about 4% in after-hours trading on the report, but the shares finished 11 November 2026 above the 10 November 2026 close.
The 200-day average sits far below the price because the 52-week closing low was $18.00 on 11 November 2025. The 29 October 2026 close is the nearest level that would show the shares regaining their October range.
Catalysts ahead
- ~10 February 2027 (est.): Q3 fiscal 2027 results for the quarter ending 31 December 2026. Shows whether any of the 16 pipeline opportunities became signed utility agreements, whether contracted proceeds rose above $33.1M, and whether the buyback started.
What would change the view
A daily close above $91.81, the 29 October 2026 close, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong; so would an announced sale of the spectrum or a signed nine-figure utility agreement.
What it trades with
Anterix trades on its own events: utility deal disclosures, the strategic review and FCC action on low-band spectrum. The shares now also respond to satellite direct-to-device news. Management tied the value of its spectrum to the Grain–SpaceX 800 MHz sale on 11 November 2026, and the FCC's 29 October 2026 NPRM considers 900 MHz for space-based coverage. Coverage is thin at three to four brokers, and price targets dated before the 10 November 2026 report do not reflect it.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Q2 fiscal 2027 spectrum revenue was $1.958M (vs $1.552M a year earlier); net loss was $4.993M, or $0.25 per diluted share. Anterix Q2 FY2027 results release and 10-Q, 10 November 2026 · as of
- Cash and equivalents were $107.467M plus $3.172M restricted escrow, with no debt. Anterix Q2 FY2027 results release, 10 November 2026 · as of
- Contracted proceeds outstanding were $33.1M, with about $9.6M expected in the rest of fiscal 2027. Anterix Q2 FY2027 results release, 10 November 2026 · as of
- A $6.1M gain was booked on exchanging narrowband for broadband licences in six counties; spectrum clearing spend was $5.4M. Anterix Q2 FY2027 results release, 10 November 2026 · as of
- No shares were repurchased in the quarter; $250.0M remains available under the authority running to 22 September 2029. Anterix Q2 FY2027 results release, 10 November 2026 · as of
- CEO Scott Lang said the active utility pipeline grew from about a dozen to 16 opportunities and that more than one strategic party is involved; no timetable was given. Q2 FY2027 earnings call transcript (Motley Fool), 11 November 2026 · as of
- The FCC advanced an NPRM on Supplemental Coverage from Space that considers adding the 900 MHz band. Anterix Q2 FY2027 results release, 10 November 2026 · as of
- CFO Elena Marquez sold 4,981 shares at an average $80.43 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. SEC Form 4 filed 13 October 2026 · as of
Sources
- Anterix Inc. Reports Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2027 Results · globenewswire.com ·
- Anterix Q2 FY2027 earnings show $5M net loss · stocktitan.net
- Anterix (ATEX) Q2 2027 Earnings Call Transcript · fool.com ·
- Anterix falls as second quarter revenue misses estimates · investing.com
- Anterix Inc (ATEX) (Q2 2027) Earnings Call Highlights: Spectrum Scarcity Fuels 16-Deal Pipeline as Cash Pile Swells to $107.5 Million · gurufocus.com
- Anterix Inc (ATEX) (Q1 2027) Earnings Call Highlights: Strategic Review Intensifies as Spectrum Value Soars · gurufocus.com ·
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