WULF · TeraWulf
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $17.86
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
29.3% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $17.86, on record since 10 November 2026. The shares are down 28.3% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $17.86, the highest close of the last 63 sessions (8 September 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Financials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 6 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 76.2
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +50.7
- Gross margin (%)
- 15.2
- Operating margin (%)
- −115.7
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −3,113
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −25.2
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 33.3
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −49.2
All filed numbers
What TeraWulf reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 76.2 | +50.7 | 15.2 | −115.7 |
| first filed | 44.8 | −6.0 | 19.9 | −313.7 |
| first filed | 34.0 | −1.1 | 60.1 | −476.7 |
| first filed | 35.8 | +2.4 | 22.6 | −240.9 |
| first filed | 50.6 | +86.9 | 57.2 | −48.8 |
| first filed | 47.6 | +33.9 | 46.2 | −32.7 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 615 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −784 | 710 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +42.8 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −267 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 2,846 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −3,113 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 1,602 |
| Debt ($M) convertible debt | 1,627 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −25.2 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 17.0 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 871 |
| Market value ($M) | 6,329 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 6,354 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 33.3 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 7.3 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −49.2 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 25.6% of shares outstanding sold short, 3.4 days of average trading to cover, +7.3% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $90K | $5.3M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $390K | $36.1Mand 1 trade without a stated price |
This note mentions Anthropic, the company that makes Claude, the AI model that wrote it. The same method and sources apply as on every note. The conflict of interest, stated.
The thesis
TeraWulf's shift from bitcoin miner to artificial-intelligence (AI) data-centre landlord is now a delivery-timing story: the third-quarter report of 6 November 2026 moved first rent from the CB-4 data hall at Lake Mariner, New York, from late September to the fourth quarter. The first reported CB-4 rent, due by 31 December 2026 on the company's schedule, settles whether the shares can recover. The shares closed at $12.38 on 9 November 2026, 57.3% below the 52-week high of $28.98, on adjusted daily closes.
The company reported third-quarter revenue of $76.2 million, against an analyst estimate of $61.79 million (Benzinga, 6 November 2026). High-performance-computing (HPC) lease revenue was $63.0 million, about 83% of the total. Revenue-generating capacity was still 102 megawatts (MW) at 30 September 2026, the same figure as in early July. The release says CB-4 phased delivery and rent commencement are on track for the fourth quarter, with CB-5 starting in early 2027.
On the 5 August 2026 call, management had said the first CB-4 hall would begin lease revenue in late September 2026. The Q3 release moved that into a quarter-long window. The story is well known: the story is well known, and since the 6 November 2026 report the news has been target cuts from analysts who stay positive. The shares are 28.0% lower over three months, and the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) is 51.4, up from 40.4 on 27 October 2026.
The view here is that the shares trade on the first CB-4 rent more than on the Kentucky lease, which pays from late 2027. If CB-4 rent is still absent from fourth-quarter reporting.
Bullish and bearish views on TeraWulf Inc.
The bull case on TeraWulf Inc. (WULF), in brief: lease revenue is growing. The bear case: the first-hall date slipped.
Bull case
- Lease revenue is growing. Q3 HPC lease revenue of $63.0 million compares with $31.9 million in Q2 (earnings releases, 5 August 2026 and 6 November 2026). Total revenue of $76.2 million compares with $50.6 million in Q3 2025.
- Kentucky funding has investment-grade support. On 4 November 2026 TeraWulf announced a Google credit backstop for the project financing behind the 20-year Anthropic lease at Justified, about 401 MW and roughly $19 billion of contracted revenue. A definitive Fluor engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) agreement for three buildings came the same day.
- Cash is large. The company reported about $2.4 billion of cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash at 30 September 2026, of which $1.6 billion was unrestricted. The revolving credit facility was raised from $250 million to $400 million on 23 October 2026 (Form 8-K as reported by Stocktwits).
- Power access keeps expanding. The 5 October 2026 amendment lifts Muskie contracted capacity from 500 MW to 1 gigawatt, with the second phase moved to 2029, subject to Kentucky Public Service Commission approval.
- Targets stay far above the price. Northland kept Buy with a $22.50 target, Needham kept Buy with a $25 target, and Rosenblatt kept Buy with a $20 target, all on 9 November 2026. Cantor's target is $30 (16 October 2026) and TD Cowen's is $21 (12 October 2026).
Bear case
- The first-hall date slipped. Late September guidance became "rent commencement during the fourth quarter" in the 6 November 2026 release. Revenue-generating capacity was unchanged at 102 MW through the quarter.
- Analysts are lowering targets. Needham cut to $25 and Rosenblatt to $20 on 9 November 2026, and Jefferies adjusted its target on 10 November 2026 (Benzinga headlines). Cantor cut to $30 on 16 October 2026.
- Operating profit is negative. Adjusted EBITDA was about negative $12.8 million in Q3 (earnings release). The Q3 net income of about $709.5 million came mainly from a non-cash gain on warrant and derivative liabilities, so it says little about the business.
- Sector sentiment is weak. Benzinga ran "AI Stocks Got Hammered After Midterms" on 6 November 2026, and Keefe, Bruyette & Woods reset targets across bitcoin miners on 2 November 2026. The Information described tighter data-centre debt terms on 30 September 2026.
- Insiders have sold. CEO-affiliated holders and directors sold shares on the open market through 2026, per Form 4 filings.
Price setup
The shares closed at $12.38 on 9 November 2026. The 52-week high is $28.98, and the shares were 28.0% lower over three months. The 14 October 2026 close of $11.54 is the recent low among the closes cited here, and $10.00 is a round-number level below it.
The RSI of 51.4 compares with 14.7 on 14 October 2026 and 40.4 on 27 October 2026, so the selling pressure has eased. Crowding evidence is mixed. Broker coverage is wide, with Benzinga recording initiations from Wells Fargo, UBS, Rothschild and Freedom Capital Markets in September. Earnings are now behind the shares, and no further results date falls in the next 30 days.
Catalysts ahead
- by 31 December 2026: CB-4 phased delivery and first rent commencement at Lake Mariner. Shows whether revenue-generating capacity rises above 102 MW and whether the Q4 timing holds after the September guidance was missed.
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): Launch of the roughly $3.5 billion Kentucky debt financing, now backed by Google credit support. Pricing and demand for the loan show how lenders value the Anthropic-backed build-out.
- Q4 2026: Fluor expects to book the Justified EPC award. Confirms the construction contract behind the Kentucky delivery schedule.
What would change the view
A daily close above $17.86, the highest close of the last 63 sessions (8 September 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.
What it trades with
TeraWulf trades with AI data-centre landlords and former bitcoin miners, including Hut 8, Applied Digital, IREN and Cipher Digital. Benzinga's 27 October 2026 headlines showed those peers rising together, and the 6 November 2026 sell-off headline shows the group falling together. Long-dated Treasury yields matter because the Kentucky build-out is debt-funded. Bitcoin's price matters less now that HPC leases are 83% of revenue.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Q3 2026 total revenue was $76.2 million (versus $50.6 million in Q3 2025), with HPC lease revenue of $63.0 million, about 83% of the total. TeraWulf third-quarter 2026 earnings release · as of
- Adjusted EBITDA was about negative $12.8 million; Q3 net income of about $709.5 million was driven mainly by a non-cash gain on warrant and derivative liabilities. TeraWulf third-quarter 2026 earnings release · as of
- CB-4 phased delivery and rent commencement are on track for Q4 2026; CB-5 phased delivery targeted to begin in early 2027; 336 MW under construction across CB-4 and CB-5. TeraWulf third-quarter 2026 earnings release · as of
- Cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash were about $2.4 billion at quarter-end, of which $1.6 billion unrestricted. TeraWulf third-quarter 2026 earnings release · as of
- TeraWulf executed a Google credit support agreement for debt financing behind about $19 billion of Anthropic lease commitments, and a definitive Fluor EPC agreement for three Kentucky buildings. TeraWulf press release, Benzinga headlines · as of
- Management had guided on 5 August 2026 that the first CB-4 hall would begin lease revenue in late September 2026. TeraWulf second-quarter 2026 earnings call · as of
- Needham cut its target to $25, Rosenblatt to $20, and Northland set $22.50 with Buy ratings maintained. Benzinga analyst headlines · as of
- WULF closed at $12.38, 57.3% below its 52-week high of $28.98 and 28.0% lower over three months, with a 14-day RSI of 51.4. Adjusted daily closes · as of
Sources
- HPC lease revenue reaches $63.0 million, representing ~83% of third-quarter revenue · financialcontent.com
- TeraWulf reports third quarter 2026 results · finviz.com
- TeraWulf posts $76.2 million Q3 revenue as AI leases outgrow Bitcoin mining · cryptobriefing.com
- TeraWulf's HPC leasing revenue jumps 52%, widening lead over bitcoin mining · theblock.co
Related · shared themes
IREN
IREN
IREN Limited's shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500, because its AI cloud ramp is behind its own $4 billion operating revenue-rate…
ORCL
Oracle
Oracle's shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months, as Microsoft's exit from rented capacity, a scrapped…
APLD
Applied Digital
Applied Digital's data-centre rent is growing, but financing for about 800 MW of unbuilt capacity at rising costs makes the shares more…
BTBT
Bit Digital
Bit Digital's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: revenue fell and missed, parent cash is about $5.0 million, and…