HUT · Hut 8
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $76.09
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
24.3% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $76.09, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 34.6% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $76.09, which would retrace most of the drop since the 4 November 2026 report and show the shares leading the S&P 500. Texas confirming Beacon Point's baseload classification would point the same way.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Financials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 4 November 2026
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 71.1
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −14.9
- Gross margin (%)
- 57.5
- Operating margin (%)
- 447.7
All filed numbers
What Hut 8 reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 71.1 | −14.9 | 57.5 | 447.7 |
| first filed | 74.9 | +81.4 | 64.1 | −275.4 |
| first filed | 71.0 | +225.5 | 64.0 | −521.5 |
| first filed | 88.5 | +179.2 | 60.4 | −491.4 |
| first filed | 83.5 | +90.9 | 61.3 | 87.0 |
| first filed | 41.3 | +17.3 | 47.3 | 454.9 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 241 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −519 | 131 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +10.1 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −62.4 |
| Capital spending ($M) | Not reported |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 157 |
| Debt ($M) | Not available |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | Not available |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −11.8% on a year | 1.7 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 6.1 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 1,560 |
| Market value ($M) | 6,911 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 4.4 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 15.1% of shares outstanding sold short, 2.5 days of average trading to cover, −4.5% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $2.5M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $15.2M |
The thesis
Hut 8's shift from bitcoin miner to artificial-intelligence (AI) data-center landlord has about $19.6 billion of contracted Beacon Point leases behind it. The shares are still more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months, because revenue is falling before landlord income starts and Texas grid approval is unresolved. The Texas decision on Beacon Point's baseload classification, put at around 17 December 2026 by Finviz coverage of the third-quarter call, is the next fixed test.
The shares closed at $61.98 on 12 November 2026. That is a rebound from $45.95 on 5 November 2026, the session after the third-quarter report. It is still 27.5% lower over three months from the $85.44 close of 14 August 2026, and 56.0% below the 52-week intraday high of $140.80 on 2 June 2026.
Hut 8 reported third-quarter revenue of $71.1 million on 4 November 2026, against $83.5 million a year earlier and below the roughly $76 million consensus. Net income of $189.5 million came mostly from a $413.8 million gain on digital assets.
Bullish and bearish views on Hut 8 Corp.
The bull case on Hut 8 Corp. (HUT), in brief: Beacon Point is fully leased. The bear case: revenue is shrinking while contracts build.
Bull case
- Beacon Point is fully leased. Hut 8's 4 November 2026 release describes a second 352-megawatt lease with the Phase 1 tenant. It carries about $9.8 billion of contract value and about $655 million of expected average annual net operating income. The campus totals about $19.6 billion and $1.3 billion a year.
- Funding sits at the project level. The 4 November 2026 release says River Bend and Beacon Point are to be funded without parent equity issuance or recourse parent debt. The $4.25 billion of 6.129% notes due 2042 priced on 4 June 2026, and a $1.07 billion revolver closed on 28 September 2026. Finviz reports the revolver is undrawn.
- Analysts keep Buy ratings after the cuts. Morgan Stanley kept Overweight with a $184 target on 9 November 2026. Jefferies kept Buy with an $81 target on 10 November 2026, and KBW kept Buy with an $81 target on 11 November 2026. StoneX ($165), Wells Fargo ($148), B. Riley ($132) and Cantor Fitzgerald ($127) cut their targets on 5 November 2026 and 6 November 2026 and kept positive ratings. Every one of these targets is above the $61.98 close.
- Bitcoin holdings add a cushion. At 30 September 2026 Hut 8 held $697.4 million of bitcoin attributable to itself and $702.9 million attributable to American Bitcoin, per the third-quarter release.
Bear case
- Revenue is shrinking while contracts build. Third-quarter revenue of $71.1 million compares with $83.5 million a year earlier (Hut 8 release, 4 November 2026). Landlord revenue has not started.
- Texas policy is an open risk. Reuters, as reported by AI Weekly, tied the 23% fall on 4 November 2026 to Democratic election wins, with IREN down 11% and Core Scientific down 10% that day. Blockspace Media reports Beacon Point's conditional baseload status depends on a Texas audit directive from Governor Greg Abbott dated 3 August 2026, and that formal authorization to energize has not been granted.
- Cash is tighter. Unrestricted cash fell to $156.9 million from $233.6 million (third-quarter release). Finviz reports unencumbered bitcoin fell to about 1,361 coins from roughly 5,600 after bitcoin sales funded the full $250 million of repurchases. Management said "cash will be king" on the call, and the board raised the buyback authorization to $1.0 billion on 2 November 2026.
- Stock-based pay is heavy. General and administrative expense was $99.6 million, including $64.7 million of stock-based compensation (third-quarter release, via Crypto Briefing).
- Targets keep falling. Jefferies and KBW now sit at $81. Needham lowered its target to $101 and Rosenblatt to $100 on 5 November 2026. Cantor Fitzgerald's target fell from $151 on 16 October 2026 to $127 on 5 November 2026.
- Insiders sold at higher prices. Director Mayo Shattuck III sold 20,000 shares at $100.00 on 24 September 2026, and Chief Financial Officer Sean Glennan sold 6,445 shares at an average $78.76 on 24 August 2026 (SEC Form 4 filings). Both sales were above the current price.
Price setup
The shares closed at $52.65 on 6 November 2026 and $57.02 on 9 November 2026. They closed at $56.77 on 10 November 2026, $61.06 on 11 November 2026 and $61.98 on 12 November 2026.
The 50-day average is $79.35 and the 200-day average is $82.37, both as of the 12 November 2026 close, so the shares trade below both. The 52-week closing low is $33.76 on 20 November 2025.
The market already prices material doubt on Texas timing. The shares closed at $61.98 on 12 November 2026, and the lowest post-report target from Jefferies and KBW is $81.
The next earnings date is not yet announced.
Catalysts ahead
- ~17 December 2026 (est.): Texas grid decision on Beacon Point's baseload classification, as put at around this date in Finviz coverage of the third-quarter call. Confirmation would firm up Beacon Point's grid standing and its delivery dates; a denial or downgrade would undercut the contracted revenue timeline.
What would change the view
A daily close above $76.09, which would retrace most of the drop since the 4 November 2026 report and show the shares leading the S&P 500. Texas confirming Beacon Point's baseload classification would point the same way.
What it trades with
Hut 8 fell with IREN and Core Scientific on 4 November 2026 (Reuters, via AI Weekly). It also moves with bitcoin because it holds bitcoin and consolidates American Bitcoin. Texas policy is a shared risk across AI data-center developers, and the grid operator's decisions on baseload status apply to peers as well as Hut 8.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $71.1 million versus $83.5 million a year earlier; net income was $189.5 million including a $413.8 million mostly unrealized gain on digital assets. Hut 8 third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Second 352-megawatt Beacon Point lease carries about $9.8 billion of contract value; campus total about $19.6 billion and $1.3 billion of annual net operating income. Hut 8 third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Hut 8 repurchased 3,338,479 shares for about $250.0 million and raised the buyback authorization by $750.0 million to $1.0 billion on 2 November 2026. Hut 8 third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Unrestricted cash fell to $156.9 million from $233.6 million; general and administrative expense was $99.6 million including $64.7 million of stock-based compensation. Crypto Briefing and Finviz coverage of third-quarter 2026 results · as of
- Hut 8 shares fell about 23% as AI data-center stocks sold off after Democratic election wins; IREN fell 11% and Core Scientific 10%. Reuters via AI Weekly · as of
- Morgan Stanley kept Overweight and lowered its target to $184; Jefferies kept Buy with an $81 target; KBW kept Buy with an $81 target. Company-news analyst rating items · as of
- Director Mayo Shattuck III sold 20,000 shares at $100.00 on 24 September 2026. SEC Form 4 filed 28 September 2026 · as of
- Closed at $61.98 on 12 November 2026, up from $45.95 on 5 November 2026; 3-month change of −27.5%. Adjusted daily closes · as of
Sources
- Hut 8 Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results · finviz.com
- Hut 8 misses on EPS and revenue as AI campuses stay on track and management turns more cautious on cash · finviz.com
- Hut 8 posts $189.5M Q3 profit as revenue falls short of estimates · cryptobriefing.com
- Hut 8 Falls 23% as Data Center Stocks Slide on Dem Sweep · aiweekly.co
- Hut 8 Beacon Point ERCOT review Texas · blockspace.media
- Hut 8 expands buyback authorization · blockspace.media
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