GLXY · Galaxy Digital
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $20.33
Note written ·
How this view changed
- · Rated Low. The note's kill line was crossed, 9 November 2026: The adjusted close of $14.51 on 9 November 2026 fell below the $16.40 kill line in the previous note, and Morgan Stanley cut its target to $27 from $48.
Price against the kill line
29.3% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $20.33, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 34.2% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $20.33, which would put the shares above the 50-day average of closes and the $17.18 close of the 27 October 2026 report day, showing them leading the S&P 500. Fourth-quarter 2026 data-center leasing revenue above $79 million with trading gains intact would also show it.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Financials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 9 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 8,057
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −71.6
- Operating margin (%)
- 5.1
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −2,142
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −2,066
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 0.2
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −58.3
All filed numbers
What Galaxy Digital reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 8,057 | −71.6 | 5.1 |
| first filed | 8,557 | −1.2 | −1.5 |
| first filed | 10,041 | −22.6 | −2.3 |
| first filed | 10,367 | — | — |
| first filed restated | 28,402 | — | 2.0 |
| first filed | 8,662 | — | 1.9 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 344 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −461 | 323 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +15.5 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −361 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 1,781 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −2,142 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 4,893 |
| Debt ($M) notes plus loans | 6,959 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −2,066 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −33.3% on a year | 38.1 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 67.6 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 1,914 |
| Market value ($M) | 3,677 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 5,743 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 0.2 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.9 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −58.3 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 13.5% of shares outstanding sold short, 5.8 days of average trading to cover, +6.1% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $9.9M | $332K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $10.8M | $16.2M |
The thesis
Galaxy Digital's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. They closed at $15.18 on 12 November 2026, below the 50-day average of $20.15 and the 200-day average of $23.44 (adjusted daily closes), and most of the third-quarter profit came from trading and asset gains rather than rent. The fourth-quarter 2026 report, expected in February 2027, shows whether data-center leasing and trading gains hold.
Galaxy reported third-quarter net income of $323 million against an $85 million loss in the second quarter. Data-center leasing revenue was $79 million, the first full quarter with all 133 megawatts (MW) of Helios Phase I delivered to CoreWeave. Data Centers adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) were $69 million, up from $11 million (Galaxy 8-K, 27 October 2026).
CoreWeave, the sole Helios tenant, reported on 10 November 2026 after the close. Revenue was $3.661 billion, the net loss was $709 million, backlog was about $132.5 billion, and it raised 2026 revenue guidance to $13.0–$13.3 billion (CoreWeave press release). Galaxy closed at $14.11 on 10 November 2026 and $15.97 on 11 November 2026, the session after that report.
The shares have recovered from the $12.98 closing low of 5 November 2026 but remain 58.0% below the 52-week intraday high of $36.10 (22 June 2026). The three-month change is −29.9%.
Bullish and bearish views on Galaxy Digital Inc.
The bull case on Galaxy Digital Inc. (GLXY), in brief: Helios rent is in reported results. The bear case: profit came from markets, not rent.
Bull case
- Helios rent is in reported results. Third-quarter leasing revenue was $79 million and Data Centers adjusted EBITDA was $69 million, against $11 million in the second quarter (Galaxy 8-K, 27 October 2026).
- The tenant's results improved. CoreWeave raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $13.0–$13.3 billion and reported a $132.5 billion backlog on 10 November 2026, and AI infrastructure stocks rose the next session (company press release; Benzinga headlines, 11 November 2026).
- Insiders bought near the low. CEO Michael Novogratz bought 760,000 shares in the open market at an average $12.98 on 5 November 2026, and director Douglas Deason bought 5,000 shares at $13.98 on 6 November 2026 (SEC Form 4 filings).
- Phase II is financed and liquidity is large. Galaxy sold $3.507 billion of senior secured notes backed by $10.4 billion of minimum CoreWeave lease payments (announced 22 July 2026). Cash, stablecoins and US Treasuries were $4.9 billion on 30 September 2026, against $2.5 billion at the end of the second quarter.
- Analysts still rate it positively. Morgan Stanley kept Overweight with a $27 target on 9 November 2026, Chardan kept Buy with a $27 target on 29 October 2026, and StoneX kept Buy with a $57 target on 19 October 2026 (Benzinga headlines; The Block). Jefferies maintained Buy and adjusted its target on 10 November 2026, per a Benzinga headline.
- A regulated business is in application. Galaxy applied to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency for a national trust bank charter on 29 October 2026, covering custody, trading, staking and advisory services without deposits or commercial lending (Banking Dive).
Bear case
- Profit came from markets, not rent. Third-quarter adjusted gross profit was $569 million against $43 million in the second quarter, and leasing supplied $79 million of it (Galaxy 8-K, 27 October 2026). Trading and asset gains can reverse.
- One tenant carries the contracted cash flow. StoneX noted on 19 October 2026 that Helios cash flows rest on CoreWeave, which had $35.6 billion of debt at the end of June. CoreWeave's net loss was $709 million in the third quarter (press release, 10 November 2026).
- Helios II is not leased. Blockspace Media reported that Novogratz said Galaxy walked away from advanced talks with a prospective Helios II tenant after conditions shifted in late summer. Benzinga carried a headline on 4 November 2026 linking a share decline to a Texas political shift and data-center regulatory concerns.
- Price targets keep falling. Morgan Stanley's target was $48 on 3 September 2026 and $27 on 9 November 2026. HC Wainwright cut to $36 on 28 October 2026 and Chardan to $27 on 29 October 2026 (Benzinga headlines).
- Insiders have also sold, and supply is open. Director Rhonda Adams Medina sold 12,000 shares at $16.45 on 30 October 2026 (SEC Form 4). A $500 million at-the-market program filed 8 May 2026 lets Galaxy sell Class A shares without advance notice, and Galaxy Group registered 202.3 million shares for resale.
- Spending is heavy. Data-center capital expenditure was $757 million in the third quarter (Galaxy 8-K, 30 September 2026 quarter end).
Price setup
The shares closed at $15.18 on 12 November 2026. That is above the 52-week closing low of $12.98 (5 November 2026) and below both the 50-day average of $20.15 and the 200-day average of $23.44. The 3-month reference close was $21.66 on 14 August 2026.
The closes of 5 November to 12 November 2026 ran $12.98, $13.66, $14.51, $14.11, $15.97 and $15.18. The rebound followed the CEO's purchase and CoreWeave's results. Director Adams Medina's 30 October 2026 sale at $16.45 marks a price at which the shares traded before the November low.
Both averages sit well above the price. A close above the 50-day average would be the first sign the post-report decline has reversed.
Catalysts ahead
- 9 December 2026: Federal Reserve interest-rate decision at the end of its December meeting. Galaxy has traded with crypto equities and with rate-sensitive AI infrastructure names, and a 10-year Treasury yield above 5% has pressured both.
- ~24 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 earnings report. Shows whether data-center leasing stays near $79 million and whether trading and asset gains repeat the third quarter's $569 million of adjusted gross profit.
- ~1 April 2027 (est.): Helios Phase II data hall deliveries begin. The next operating milestone for the CoreWeave lease and the $3.507 billion of senior secured notes.
What would change the view
A daily close above $20.33, which would put the shares above the 50-day average of closes and the $17.18 close of the 27 October 2026 report day, showing them leading the S&P 500. Fourth-quarter 2026 data-center leasing revenue above $79 million with trading gains intact would also show it.
What it trades with
Galaxy trades with crypto equities. Benzinga reported on 18 September 2026 that Coinbase and Robinhood rallied as bitcoin topped $80,000, while the 10-year Treasury yield was back above 5%.
Galaxy also trades with AI infrastructure names. On 11 November 2026 Benzinga reported that TeraWulf rose with AI infrastructure stocks after CoreWeave's earnings, and Galaxy closed higher the same session. A Benzinga headline on 6 November 2026 said AI stocks fell sharply after the midterm elections. CoreWeave's borrowing costs are a direct input because it is the sole Helios tenant.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Q3 2026 net income $323 million versus an $85 million loss in Q2; data center leasing revenue $79 million; Data Centers adjusted EBITDA $69 million versus $11 million in Q2; adjusted gross profit $569 million versus $43 million. Galaxy Digital Q3 2026 8-K press release · as of
- Cash, stablecoins and US Treasuries were $4.9 billion at 30 September 2026 versus $2.5 billion at the end of Q2; Q3 data-center capital expenditure was $757 million. Galaxy Digital Q3 2026 8-K press release · as of
- CoreWeave Q3 2026 revenue $3.661 billion, net loss $709 million, backlog about $132.5 billion, 2026 revenue guidance raised to $13.0–$13.3 billion. CoreWeave press release, 10 November 2026 · as of
- CEO Michael Novogratz bought 760,000 shares in the open market at $12.69–$13.63 (average $12.98) on 5 November 2026. SEC Form 4 filed 5 November 2026 · as of
- Director Douglas Deason bought 5,000 shares at $13.98 on 6 November 2026; director Rhonda Adams Medina sold 12,000 shares at $16.45 on 30 October 2026. SEC Form 4 filings 10 November 2026 and 2 November 2026 · as of
- Morgan Stanley kept Overweight and lowered its price target to $27 from $48 (3 September 2026). Benzinga analyst-action headlines · as of
- Chardan kept Buy with a $27 target; HC Wainwright kept Buy with a $36 target. Benzinga analyst-action headlines · as of
- Galaxy applied to the OCC for a national trust bank charter covering custody, trading, staking and advisory services, without deposits or commercial lending. Banking Dive · as of
Sources
- investors.coreweave.com ·
- SiliconANGLE ·
- Galaxy shares open 6% higher as firm posts $69 million adjusted EBITDA in first full quarter of CoreWeave rent · blockspace.media
- Galaxy Announces Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results · finviz.com
- Galaxy's AI data center business is undervalued amid CoreWeave debt concerns, StoneX says · theblock.co ·
- Banking Dive
- Galaxy drops Helios II deal · blockspace.media
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