INTC · Intel
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $66.00
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
9.6% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $66.00, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 42.4% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $66.00, over the $65.76 close of 30 October 2026, the first session after the third-quarter report, which would show the shares recovering the whole post-report range and leading again; or fourth-quarter revenue above $16.0 billion, the top of Intel's outlook.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 26 September 2026, filed 30 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 16,513
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +20.9
- Gross margin (%)
- 43.0
- Operating margin (%)
- 15.3
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 3,768
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 3,871
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 5.2
- Enterprise value to operating income (×)
- 177.8
All filed numbers
What Intel reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 16,513 | +20.9 | 43.0 | 15.3 |
| first filed | 16,128 | +25.4 | 40.4 | 11.1 |
| first filed | 13,577 | +7.2 | 39.4 | −23.1 |
| first filed | 13,674 | −4.1 | 36.1 | 4.2 |
| first filed | 13,653 | +2.8 | 38.2 | 5.0 |
| first filed | 12,859 | +0.2 | 27.5 | −24.7 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 3,982 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −12,032 | 3,320 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 27 September 2025 | +17.1 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 17,472 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 13,704 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 3,768 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 54,005 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt plus current debt | 50,134 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 3,871 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 4,093 |
| Inventory ($M) | 13,068 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 114,914 |
| Market value ($M) | 317,093 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 313,222 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 5.2 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 177.8 |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 2.8 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 1.2 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 2.8% of shares outstanding sold short, 1.5 days of average trading to cover, −11.2% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $9.7M | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $20.0M | $7.5M |
The thesis
Intel's shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. The PC slump, the Kiryat Gat fab damage and the cash burn are all still open, and analysts are still lowering targets. Nvidia's report on 17 November 2026 tests the server demand behind Intel's growth, and Intel's fourth-quarter report, expected around 22 January 2027, is the first time the other problems get new numbers.
The newest analyst move points the same way. Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya cut his target to $80 from $100 on 12 November 2026 and kept a Neutral rating, Yahoo Finance and MarketBeat reported. He cited uncertainty about Intel's 2027 processor business and the lack of meaningful progress in winning outside foundry customers.
The shares have recovered part of the 5 November 2026 chip rout without regaining the post-report gap. Intel closed at $61.20 on 12 November 2026, against $92.07 on 29 October 2026, the day of the third-quarter report, and $65.76 on 30 October 2026, the first session after it (stockanalysis.com daily history). The price still assumes a sharp earnings recovery: Benzinga put Intel's forward price-to-earnings ratio at 33.3 on 9 November 2026, against 11.8 for Nvidia, while Intel guides fourth-quarter non-GAAP earnings per share to $0.25.
The rating is Low because nothing since the 29 October 2026 guidance has raised the near-term numbers, and the only fresh analyst action is a lower target.
Bullish and bearish views on Intel Corporation
The bull case on Intel Corporation (INTC), in brief: server and foundry revenue are accelerating. The bear case: targets keep coming down.
Bull case
- Server and foundry revenue are accelerating. Intel reported $7.3 billion of third-quarter Data Center and AI revenue on 29 October 2026, up 78% from a year earlier. Intel Foundry revenue was $6.7 billion, up 58%.
- The third quarter beat on earnings. MarketBeat reports third-quarter earnings per share of $0.52 against a $0.41 consensus, on revenue of $16.51 billion, up 20.9% from a year earlier.
- Management calls 2027 a growth year. RBC Capital Markets reported on 10 November 2026 that Intel's management expects data-center strength to offset PC weakness in 2027.
- The CEO bought above today's price. A Form 4 filed 4 November 2026 shows CEO Lip-Bu Tan bought 150,000 shares on 2 November 2026 at a weighted average of $64.73, about $9.71 million in total. He also bought 105,263 shares at $95.00 on 11 August 2026, per a Form 4 filed 14 August 2026.
- Average targets sit above the close. MarketBeat's consensus on 12 November 2026 was Hold with an average target of $96.93, from 2 Strong Buy, 19 Buy, 28 Hold and 2 Sell ratings. Evercore ISI's target is $131 after a 9 November 2026 cut from $133.
- The balance sheet carries the spending. Intel's 10-Q for the quarter ended 26 September 2026 shows $21.85 billion of cash and equivalents and $32.16 billion of short-term investments, against $3.82 billion of short-term and $46.32 billion of long-term debt.
Bear case
- Targets keep coming down. Bank of America cut to $80 from $100 on 12 November 2026. After the report, Wells Fargo cut to $80 from $120, TD Cowen to $75 from $95 and Susquehanna to $75 from $105 on 30 October 2026, per MarketBeat; Jefferies cut to $85 from $120 and called the quarter a "substantial" reset (Stocktwits).
- Guidance sits far below consensus. Intel guided fourth-quarter revenue to $15.0–16.0 billion, non-GAAP gross margin to 38% and non-GAAP earnings per share to $0.25 on 29 October 2026, against consensus near $17.08 billion and $0.43–0.44.
- The PC market is falling faster. CFO David Zinsner said on 29 October 2026 that 2026 PC units should fall about 12%, with second-half units down more than 20%. 24/7 Wall St. reported on 3 November 2026 that management expects a further fall of about 10% in 2027.
- The Israel fab cost is still open. Zinsner said on 29 October 2026 that the Kiryat Gat explosion cuts about $300 million from fourth-quarter revenue, with a similar hit in the first quarter. Intel's 10-Q says it cannot yet reasonably estimate the financial impact or insurance recoveries.
- Cash burn continues while spending rises. Zinsner said on 29 October 2026 that 2026 gross capital spending stays at $20 billion and 2026 free cash flow will not be positive. 24/7 Wall St. reported he said 2027 likely will not bring positive free cash flow either.
- AMD is winning server sockets. Benzinga reported on 11 November 2026 that Google chose AMD's fifth-generation EPYC processors for its TPU 8tx systems. Bank of America's 12 November 2026 note questioned Intel's longer-term processor position on the same day.
Price setup
Intel closed at $61.20 on 12 November 2026. That is 57.0% below the 52-week intraday high of $142.35 set on 30 June 2026, and the 3-month change is −40.3% from the $102.50 close of 14 August 2026. The shares sit well below the 50-day moving average of $95.61 and the 200-day moving average of $87.34, both as of 12 November 2026.
The level the case turns on is the $65.76 close of 30 October 2026, the first session after the third-quarter report. Since the $52.25 close of 5 November 2026, the shares closed at $56.28 on 6 November 2026, $59.37 on 9 November 2026, $58.13 on 10 November 2026, $62.50 on 11 November 2026 and $61.20 on 12 November 2026. The $62.50 close of 11 November 2026 is the highest since the rout; it came in a session Benzinga tied to a broad AI chip rally.
A close back over the $65.76 post-report level would mean the shares have recovered the whole range since results. The pre-report close of $92.07 on 29 October 2026 sits close to the 200-day average. The 52-week closing low of $33.62 on 20 November 2025 marks where the 2026 rally began.
Catalysts ahead
- 17 November 2026: Nvidia third-quarter fiscal 2027 results, with the conference call at 5 p.m. Eastern. Shows whether AI server demand holds into 2027 after the 5 November 2026 chip rout; server demand is the main support for Intel's Data Center and AI growth.
- 9 December 2026: Federal Reserve rate decision. A December hike, kept in play by the 165,000-job October payrolls report, would weigh on richly valued chip stocks including Intel.
- ~22 January 2027 (est.): Intel fourth-quarter 2026 earnings report. Tests revenue against the $15.0–16.0 billion guide, puts a number on Kiryat Gat charges, and the first-quarter outlook shows whether the PC correction is easing or deepening.
What would change the view
A daily close above $66.00, over the $65.76 close of 30 October 2026, the first session after the third-quarter report, which would show the shares recovering the whole post-report range and leading again; or fourth-quarter revenue above $16.0 billion, the top of Intel's outlook.
What it trades with
Intel trades with the semiconductor group. On 5 November 2026 the shares fell 10.33% while the iShares Semiconductor ETF fell more than 12% and the S&P 500 fell 4.36% (StockTitan, citing CNBC). The rebound on 11 November 2026 also came with the group, per Benzinga.
Nvidia's 17 November 2026 report, confirmed by the company on 28 October 2026, sets sentiment for the group. Leadership uncertainty adds noise to that read: Benzinga reported on 12 November 2026 that Nvidia's board is weighing CFO Colette Kress as interim chief executive. AMD's server results are the closest read-through on Intel's competitive position, and interest-rate expectations matter ahead of the 9 December 2026 Federal Reserve decision. The leveraged single-stock funds LINT and INTW magnify Intel's moves in both directions.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya cut his Intel price target to $80 from $100 and kept a Neutral rating, citing uncertainty about the 2027 processor business and little progress in winning outside foundry customers. Yahoo Finance and MarketBeat, 12 November 2026 · as of
- MarketBeat's analyst consensus on Intel was Hold with an average price target of $96.93, from 2 Strong Buy, 19 Buy, 28 Hold and 2 Sell ratings. MarketBeat, 12 November 2026 · as of
- Third-quarter 2026 Data Center and AI revenue was $7.3 billion, up 78% from a year earlier; Intel Foundry $6.7 billion, up 58%; Client Computing $8.1 billion, down 5%. Intel third-quarter 2026 results, 29 October 2026 · as of
- Intel guided fourth-quarter 2026 revenue to $15.0–16.0 billion, non-GAAP gross margin to 38% and non-GAAP earnings per share to $0.25, against consensus of about $17.08 billion and $0.43–0.44. Intel third-quarter 2026 earnings release, 29 October 2026 · as of
- Intel's 10-Q says it cannot yet reasonably estimate the Kiryat Gat financial impact or insurance recoveries, and flags fourth-quarter charges for scrapped inventory, cleanup and under-absorbed overhead. Intel Form 10-Q, quarter ended 26 September 2026 · as of
- Cash and equivalents were $21.85 billion and short-term investments $32.16 billion; short-term debt was $3.82 billion and long-term debt $46.32 billion. Intel Form 10-Q, quarter ended 26 September 2026 · as of
- CEO Lip-Bu Tan bought 150,000 Intel shares on 2 November 2026 at a weighted average of $64.73, about $9.71 million in total. SEC Form 4 filed 4 November 2026 · as of
- Intel's forward price-to-earnings ratio was 33.3, against 11.8 for Nvidia. Benzinga, 9 November 2026 · as of
Sources
- BofA 5-Star Analyst Trims Intel Stock Price Target for 2027 · finance.yahoo.com ·
- Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) Stock Price Target Lowered at Bank of America · marketbeat.com ·
- NVIDIA Sets Conference Call for Third Quarter Financial Results · investor.nvidia.com
- Intel (INTC) Stock Price History 1972-2026 · stockanalysis.com
- What's Going On With Intel Stock Wednesday? · benzinga.com
- Stocktwits
- Intel Has Lost More Than Half Its Value Since Its Peak · 247wallst.com ·
- The Stock Market Today, November 5, 2026, Closed Sharply Lower as the AI Chip Selloff Spread · stocktitan.net ·
Related · shared themes
TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing's record October sales of NT$586.89 billion put fourth-quarter revenue on pace for the top of guidance…
AMAT
Applied Materials
Applied Materials looks more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months: a 12 November 2026 outlook for more than 30%…
LRCX
Lam Research
Lam Research shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months because a buyback-led rebound still runs ahead of…
ATEYY
Advantest
Advantest Corporation's AI chip-testing demand rests on customer volumes, and they are still rising: TSMC's October revenue, reported on 10…