KYMR · Kymera Therapeutics
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $152.37
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
16.3% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $152.37, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 5.1% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $152.37, above the 52-week intraday high of $142.92 and Truist's $150 target, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; a BROADEN2 topline with week-16 EASI improvement comparable to Dupixent's would also prove the call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 29 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 0.0
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −100.0
- Gross margin (%)
- 0.0
- Operating margin (%)
- −116.3
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −289
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −2.7
All filed numbers
What Kymera Therapeutics reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 0.0 | −100.0 | — | — |
| first filed | 65.0 | +466.4 | 0.0 | −116.3 |
| first filed | 34.4 | +55.5 | 0.0 | −244.9 |
| first filed | 2.9 | −61.2 | 0.0 | −3411.0 |
| first filed | 2.8 | −26.1 | 0.0 | −3347.4 |
| first filed | 11.5 | −55.3 | 0.0 | −736.8 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | Not reported |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −349 | −132 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +14.7 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −288 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 1.3 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −289 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 971 |
| Debt ($M) | Not available |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | Not available |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −100.0% on a year | 0.0 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) at 30 June 2026, filed 5 August 2026 | 20.0 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 1,615 |
| Market value ($M) | 10,891 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 6.7 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −2.7 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 10.7% of shares outstanding sold short, 10.0 days of average trading to cover, −7.5% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $4.2M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $172.5M | $465.0M |
The thesis
Kymera Therapeutics' shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. The price already reflects a clear win in the Phase 2b BROADEN2 trial of KT-621, and the topline result, guided by year-end 2026, decides the case. KT-621 is a once-daily oral STAT6 degrader for atopic dermatitis (eczema), and the market judges it against Sanofi and Regeneron's injectable Dupixent.
The shares closed at $134.84 on 11 November 2026, after an intraday 52-week high of $142.92 on 10 November 2026. That close sits above RBC Capital's $116 target and below Truist's $150 and Barclays' $170 targets (Benzinga, 30 October 2026 and 2 November 2026). At this price, a result that beats placebo but trails Dupixent leaves little room for further gains. Only efficacy close to Dupixent's would carry the shares well past the recent high.
The rating is Low because the trial fact base is settled and fully known. Kymera said in its 29 October 2026 third-quarter report that the last BROADEN2 patient completed the week-16 visit in October 2026, and it kept the year-end topline guidance. No new company or analyst news has followed the Barclays target raise on 2 November 2026. A clinical win looks more likely than a miss. A three-month lead over the index needs a result at the top of expectations.
Bullish and bearish views on Kymera Therapeutics, Inc.
The bull case on Kymera Therapeutics, Inc. (KYMR), in brief: the readout date is close. The bear case: Dupixent sets the bar.
Bull case
- The readout date is close. Kymera said on 29 October 2026 that the last patient finished the week-16 visit in October 2026 and that topline is due by year-end 2026. The first Phase 3 eczema trial is planned by mid-2027, subject to talks with regulators.
- The trial ran ahead of plan. Kymera completed BROADEN2 enrollment on 25 June 2026, about six months ahead of earlier guidance, which moved topline from mid-2027 to year-end 2026. The trial tests three doses in about 200 patients aged 12 to 75 over 16 weeks.
- KT-579 adds a second clinical asset. In the Phase 1 multiple-ascending-dose cohorts, median IRF5 degradation in blood was at least 90% across several dose levels, with safety comparable to placebo and no serious or severe adverse events (29 October 2026 release). The LUMORA Phase 1b lupus trial is planned to start by early 2027.
- Cash funds Phase 3. Kymera held $1,645.9 million in cash, cash equivalents and investments at 30 September 2026, with runway guided into 2029 (29 October 2026 release).
- Targets rose after the report. Barclays kept Overweight and raised its target from $139 to $170 on 2 November 2026, and Truist reiterated Buy with a $150 target on 30 October 2026 (Benzinga).
Bear case
- Dupixent sets the bar. BROADEN2 compares KT-621 with placebo, and its primary endpoint is the percent change in the Eczema Area and Severity Index (EASI) at week 16. A result that only beats placebo would leave the oral drug's commercial case against Dupixent open.
- The price already reflects a win. The $134.84 close on 11 November 2026 sits above RBC Capital's $116 target, set with a Sector Perform rating on 30 October 2026 (Benzinga). The shares rose 17.8% in the three months to that close.
- Losses are rising ahead of Phase 3. Third-quarter research and development (R&D) expense was $128.5 million, against $74.1 million a year earlier. The net loss of $132.0 million, or $1.32 per share, missed the $1.27 consensus estimate (Benzinga, 29 October 2026).
- Insiders sold into the rise. Chief executive Nello Mainolfi exercised options and sold 30,000 shares at an average $113.80 on 1 October 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. Chief legal officer Brian Adams sold 6,371 shares at an average $116.83 on 4 September 2026 (SEC Form 4 filings).
- Rival oral STAT6 programs exist. Sanofi, a Kymera partner, also funds Recludix's oral STAT6 program. Competing clinical data could weaken KT-621's claim to be first or best in class.
Price setup
The shares closed at $134.84 on 11 November 2026, below the 52-week closing high of $138.86 on 9 November 2026 and the intraday 52-week high of $142.92 on 10 November 2026. The 52-week closing low was $63.37 on 11 November 2025. The three-month change to the 11 November 2026 close is 17.8%, measured from $114.42 on 13 August 2026.
As of the 11 November 2026 close, the 50-day moving average was $116.75 and the 200-day moving average was $98.90, both well below the price. The most recent pullback low was the $128.12 close on 5 November 2026, followed by a rebound to the closing high four sessions later. A close back near the 50-day average would mean the market has given up most of the post-report gain. On the upside, Truist's $150 and Barclays' $170 targets mark where those analysts see the shares after a positive readout.
Catalysts ahead
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): Guided deadline for BROADEN2 Phase 2b topline in atopic dermatitis; Kymera has not announced a release day. The week-16 EASI result and how it compares with Dupixent decide the clinical case. If the year ends with no data, the timing case breaks.
- ~March 2027 (est.): LUMORA Phase 1b start for KT-579 in lupus, guided for early 2027. It shows whether the second oral degrader moves into patients on schedule.
- ~June 2027 (est.): Planned start of the first KT-621 Phase 3 eczema trial, guided for mid-2027. It confirms that regulators accept a Phase 3 design built on the BROADEN2 data.
What would change the view
A daily close above $152.37, above the 52-week intraday high of $142.92 and Truist's $150 target, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; a BROADEN2 topline with week-16 EASI improvement comparable to Dupixent's would also prove the call wrong.
What it trades with
Until topline arrives, the shares trade mainly on Kymera's own trial news. Dupixent news from Sanofi and Regeneron moves them, because Dupixent sets the efficacy bar, and so would rival STAT6 data from Recludix. Sanofi's double role, as a Kymera partner and as the funder of Recludix's STAT6 program, means Sanofi news can push the shares either way. Without company news, the shares tend to move with clinical-stage biotech indexes such as the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (XBI). Once BROADEN2 reads out, the result will matter far more than that link.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Kymera held $1,645.9 million in cash, cash equivalents and investments at 30 September 2026, with runway guided into 2029. Kymera third-quarter 2026 results release, 29 October 2026 · as of
- Third-quarter 2026 R&D expense was $128.5 million, against $74.1 million a year earlier. The net loss was $132.0 million, or $1.32 per share, which missed the $1.27 consensus estimate. Kymera third-quarter 2026 results release; Benzinga, 29 October 2026 · as of
- The last BROADEN2 patient completed the week-16 visit in October 2026. Topline is expected by year-end 2026, and the first Phase 3 eczema trial is planned by mid-2027. Kymera third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- BROADEN2 completed enrollment, evaluating three KT-621 doses in about 200 patients aged 12 to 75 over 16 weeks, with percent change in EASI at week 16 as the primary endpoint. Kymera enrollment completion release · as of
- In the KT-579 Phase 1 multiple-ascending-dose cohorts, median IRF5 degradation in blood was at least 90% across several dose levels, with safety comparable to placebo and no serious or severe adverse events. Kymera third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Barclays kept its Overweight rating and raised its Kymera price target from $139 to $170. Benzinga analyst ratings · as of
- Truist reiterated Buy with a $150 target. RBC Capital kept Sector Perform and raised its target to $116. Benzinga analyst ratings · as of
- CEO Nello Mainolfi exercised and sold 30,000 shares at an average $113.80 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan; CLO Brian Adams sold 6,371 shares at an average $116.83 on 4 September 2026. SEC Form 4 filings, 4 September 2026 and 1 October 2026 · as of
Sources
- BioPharmaWatch ·
- Kymera Therapeutics Completes Enrollment in the Phase 2b BROADEN2 Trial of KT-621 in Atopic Dermatitis with Topline Data by Year-end 2026 · investors.kymeratx.com
- Kymera Therapeutics stock heads toward key KT-621 data readout · ad-hoc-news.de
- Quiver Quantitative
- Kymera Completes BROADEN2 Enrollment for KT-621 in Atopic Dermatitis · dermatologytimes.com
Related · shared themes
ZVRA
Zevra Therapeutics
Zevra Therapeutics is modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months: MIPLYFFA sold $34.0 million in the third quarter of 2026…
KOD
Kodiak Sciences
Kodiak Sciences' shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 after a 161.8% three-month run that prices in the DAYBREAK win while share…
ABVX
Abivax SA
Abivax's shares are modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months because the company guides its US obefazimod ulcerative…
BHVN
Biohaven
Biohaven Ltd. is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months: the SK Biopharmaceuticals licence has cleared US…