ABCL · AbCellera Biologics
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $14.82
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
22.5% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $14.82, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 2.6% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $14.82, the highest close of the last 63 sessions (29 September 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong; so would extension data showing monthly dosing holds hot-flash relief.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 9 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 10.6
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +18.8
- Operating margin (%)
- −501.1
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −32.9
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 764
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 44.0
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −0.9
All filed numbers
What AbCellera Biologics reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 10.6 | +18.8 | −501.1 |
| first filed | 4.0 | −76.3 | −1550.0 |
| first filed | 8.3 | +96.3 | −691.7 |
| first filed | 44.9 | +788.2 | −63.7 |
| first filed | 9.0 | +37.6 | −851.8 |
| first filed | 17.1 | +133.3 | −290.2 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −42.8 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −148 | −40.8 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +6.4 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −15.4 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 17.4 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −32.9 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 764 |
| Debt ($M) | None reported |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) no debt reported | 764 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +285.8% on a year | 83.1 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) at 30 June 2026, filed 5 August 2026 | 56.0 |
| Receivables ($M) | 38.3 |
| Inventory ($M) | 7.6 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 1,063 |
| Market value ($M) | 3,753 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) no debt reported | 2,988 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) no debt reported | 44.0 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 3.5 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −0.9 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 9.5% of shares outstanding sold short, 5.6 days of average trading to cover, −4.8% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $1.5M | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $3.5M | $0 |
The thesis
AbCellera's shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months than to lead it. The case rests on ABCL635, a once-monthly injectable antibody for menopausal hot flashes, and on whether its effect holds with repeat dosing. The 12-week and open-label extension data, which management guided on 9 November 2026 to a window of late 2026 to early 2027, settle that question.
The third-quarter report on 9 November 2026 was solid on the numbers. Revenue was $10.6 million, against $9.0 million a year earlier and a $8.416 million consensus estimate, according to Benzinga. The net loss narrowed to $40.8 million, or $0.13 per share, from $57.1 million. Chief Financial Officer Andrew Booth said on the call that liquidity covers "at least the next 3 years" of pipeline investment.
The same call lowered the bar for a single dose and pushed out the readout. Chief Medical Officer Sarah Noonberg said single-dose efficacy is not expected to hold through 12 weeks. The shares closed at $11.62 on 12 November 2026, below the $12.50 close on 9 November 2026, so the report and two analyst target raises did not carry the price. The rating is Low because the decisive repeat-dose data are not yet public and could arrive at or after the end of the three-month window.
Bullish and bearish views on AbCellera Biologics Inc.
The bull case on AbCellera Biologics Inc. (ABCL), in brief: the controlled week-4 effect is large. The bear case: the headline readout has slipped.
Bull case
- The controlled week-4 effect is large. AbCellera reported on 10 August 2026 that in the 92-patient Phase 2, a single 600 mg dose cut moderate-to-severe hot flashes by 8.8 events per day, against 3.5 on placebo. Severity scores fell 1.4 points on drug and 0.3 on placebo, the company repeated on 9 November 2026.
- Extension data will cover most patients. Noonberg said on the 9 November 2026 call that uptake of the open-label extension was "extremely high" and that "the vast majority of patients" will be in that data set. Repeat dosing in that group tests the monthly regimen directly.
- Insiders and a large holder kept buying. Thermopylae Holdings, a 10% owner, bought 60,565 shares in the open market at $11.54 on 12 November 2026, according to an SEC Form 4. Booth bought 37,200 shares at $10.32 on 14 August 2026, and directors Michael Hayden and John Montalbano made open-market purchases between 12 August 2026 and 24 August 2026.
- Analysts raised targets after the report. Stifel raised its target to $14 from $9 on 10 November 2026, and StoneX raised its target to $15 on 11 November 2026, both keeping Buy ratings, according to Benzinga.
- Cash covers years of work. The 30 September 2026 balance sheet shows $764.4 million in cash, equivalents and marketable securities. The company cites over $890 million of available liquidity, including over $100 million of government funding.
- The franchise is widening. The 9 November 2026 release added planned 2027 trials in hot flashes caused by breast and prostate cancer treatment. It also moved ABCL992, a longer-acting ABCL635 analog, into investigational new drug (IND)-enabling work.
Bear case
- The headline readout has slipped. Management guided 12-week and extension data for year-end at a Cantor conference on 9 September 2026. On 9 November 2026 Chief Executive Carl Hansen said "early 2027", and Noonberg gave a window of late 2026 to early 2027.
- Single-dose durability is now guided down. Noonberg said on the 9 November 2026 call that efficacy is not expected to be maintained through 12 weeks after one dose. The 12-week period serves as a washout for exposure-response modelling, so the dosing interval rests on modelling and the extension.
- Phase 3 design remains open. Noonberg said on 9 November 2026 that endpoints, sample size and populations are still under discussion with regulators. Veozah (fezolinetant, Astellas) and Lynkuet (elinzanetant, Bayer) are already on the market as daily oral drugs.
- The rest of the clinical pipeline narrowed. ABCL575 met all Phase 1 endpoints, but the 9 November 2026 release said AbCellera does not plan to develop it past Phase 1. ABCL386 and ABCL688 are slated for the clinic in 2027.
- Partner programs are shrinking. Partner-led programs in which AbCellera holds a downstream stake fell to 34 on 30 September 2026, from 44 on 31 December 2025, according to the third-quarter release.
Price setup
The shares closed at $11.62 on 12 November 2026, according to adjusted daily closes. That is below the 50-day moving average of $12.34 and well above the 200-day moving average of $7.20, both as of 12 November 2026. The shares are up 2.1% over three months, against a reference close of $11.38 on 14 August 2026.
The 52-week intraday high is $15.02, set on 30 September 2026, and the 12 November 2026 close sits 22.6% below it. The 52-week closing low is $2.78 on 5 February 2026, before the Phase 2 data. After the report the shares rose from $11.88 on 6 November 2026 to $12.50 on 9 November 2026, then gave back the gain over the next three sessions to $11.62.
The price already reflects the week-4 Phase 2 result: the shares have traded mostly between $11 and $15 since the 10 August 2026 data, roughly four times the February closing low. What remains unpriced is the repeat-dose result, which can move the shares sharply in either direction.
Catalysts ahead
- 17 November 2026: AbCellera at the UBS Global Biopharma Conference. Management may narrow the timing of the 12-week and extension data or add detail on Phase 3 endpoints and dosing interval.
- ~31 January 2027 (est.): ABCL635 12-week and open-label extension data. Repeat-dose results show whether monthly dosing sustains hot-flash relief and stays clean on safety, which decides the case.
- ~31 December 2027 (est.): Late-stage start for ABCL635 in menopausal hot flashes. A start in 2027 with monthly or less frequent dosing keeps the development timeline intact.
What would change the view
A daily close above $14.82, the highest close of the last 63 sessions (29 September 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong; so would extension data showing monthly dosing holds hot-flash relief.
What it trades with
The shares trade with clinical-stage biotech sentiment and with news on the oral NK3 antagonists, Astellas' Veozah and Bayer's Lynkuet. Label or safety updates for those drugs move the competitive picture for an injectable. Discovery-partnership revenue, $10.6 million in the third quarter of 2026, is too small to anchor the valuation, so ABCL635 headlines dominate price moves.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $10.6 million versus $9.0 million a year earlier; net loss was $40.8 million, or $0.13 per share, versus $57.1 million. AbCellera third-quarter 2026 release and Form 8-K · as of
- Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities were $764.4 million; the company cites over $890 million of available liquidity including over $100 million of government funding. AbCellera third-quarter 2026 release · as of
- Management guided ABCL635 12-week and open-label extension data for early 2027, a window the Chief Medical Officer described as late 2026 to early 2027. Third-quarter 2026 earnings call transcript, Motley Fool · as of
- The Chief Medical Officer said single-dose ABCL635 efficacy is not expected to be maintained through 12 weeks; the washout supports exposure-response modelling. Third-quarter 2026 earnings call transcript, Motley Fool · as of
- In the 92-patient Phase 2, a single 600 mg dose of ABCL635 cut moderate-to-severe hot flashes by 8.8 events per day versus 3.5 on placebo at week 4. AbCellera top-line release and Form 8-K · as of
- Thermopylae Holdings Ltd., a 10% owner, bought 60,565 AbCellera shares in the open market at $11.54. SEC Form 4 filed 12 November 2026 · as of
- Stifel raised its AbCellera price target to $14 from $9 and StoneX raised its target to $15, both with Buy ratings. Benzinga analyst notes, 10 November 2026 and 11 November 2026 · as of
- Partner-led programs with an AbCellera downstream stake fell to 34 from 44 on 31 December 2025. AbCellera third-quarter 2026 release · as of
Sources
- AbCellera Reports Q3 2026 Business Results · investors.abcellera.com ·
- AbCellera (ABCL) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript · fool.com ·
- AbCellera Biologics Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
- AbCellera Biologics Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript · benzinga.com
- AbCellera Announces Positive Top-Line Phase 2 Clinical Trial Results for ABCL635 · investors.abcellera.com
- Finviz
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