DELL · Dell Technologies
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $498.86
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
30.9% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $498.86, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 28.1% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $498.86, the 50-day average of adjusted closes as of 11 November 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; or a fiscal Q3 report on 24 November 2026 with revenue above $50.63 billion and a fiscal-2027 revenue guide raised above $192.0 billion.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 31 July 2026, filed 8 September 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 46,971
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +57.7
- Gross margin (%)
- 20.9
- Operating margin (%)
- 11.5
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 8,560
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −22,897
- Price to earnings (×)
- 19.7
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 1.6
All filed numbers
What Dell Technologies reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 46,971 | +57.7 | 20.9 | 11.5 |
| first filed | 43,842 | +87.5 | 17.8 | 8.3 |
| first filed | 33,379 | +39.5 | 20.2 | 9.3 |
| first filed | 27,005 | +10.8 | 20.7 | 7.8 |
| first filed | 29,776 | +19.0 | 18.3 | 6.0 |
| first filed | 23,378 | +5.1 | 21.1 | 5.0 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 5,131 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 11,378 | 4,133 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 1 August 2025 | −5.0 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 12,152 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 3,592 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 8,560 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 11,569 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt plus current debt | 34,466 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −22,897 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +13.5% on a year | 29,718 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) +200.0% on a year | 132,000 |
| Receivables ($M) | 22,918 |
| Inventory ($M) | 21,290 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | −1,427 |
| Market value ($M) | 224,634 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 247,531 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 1.6 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 17.4 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 19.7 |
| Price to book value (×) | Not meaningful |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 3.8 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 1.9% of shares outstanding sold short, 1.8 days of average trading to cover, +0.7% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $1.0B |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $3.1B |
The thesis
Dell Technologies' shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. Doubts about AI spending, data-center politics and memory costs move the stock more than Dell's own orders do. The fiscal third-quarter report on 24 November 2026 settles it. The tests are whether the 15.0% server operating margin holds and whether revenue beats a $50.63 billion consensus that sits above Dell's $49.0 billion guide.
The latest move came from a customer's results. CoreWeave reported third-quarter revenue of $3.66 billion on 10 November, up 168%, raised its full-year outlook and lifted its 2026 capital-spending range to $37 billion to $39 billion, per SiliconANGLE. Dell rose 11.75% on 11 November to close at $373.68, per TradingKey, alongside an 8% gain in Super Micro Computer and 6% in Hewlett Packard Enterprise, per 24/7 Wall St.
That rally recovered only part of the fall. Dell is 37.3% below its 52-week high and 24.3% lower over three months on adjusted daily closes. The rebound came from a customer's spending plan. Dell has not updated its own guidance since 1 September 2026.
Bullish and bearish views on Dell Technologies Inc.
The bull case on Dell Technologies Inc. (DELL), in brief: orders are running ahead of shipments. The bear case: data-center politics turned hostile.
Bull case
- Orders are running ahead of shipments. Dell's 1 September 2026 earnings release reported fiscal Q2 FY27 revenue of $47.0 billion, up 58%. AI orders were $60.9 billion, AI-optimized server revenue was $16.4 billion and the AI-server backlog was $95 billion.
- Server profits moved sharply higher. The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) earned a 15.0% operating margin in fiscal Q2 FY27, against 8.8% a year earlier. ISG revenue was $31.8 billion, up 89%, per the same release.
- Guidance rose across the board. On 1 September, Dell raised its fiscal-2027 revenue guide to $192.0 billion and its AI-server revenue outlook to $74.0 billion from $60.0 billion. It guided fiscal Q3 revenue to $49.0 billion and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) to $6.50.
- A large customer is spending more. CoreWeave's backlog reached $132.5 billion at its 10 November report, up from $104 billion three months earlier, per SiliconANGLE. Its higher 2026 spending range points to more server purchases from its hardware suppliers.
- Peers keep showing demand. Super Micro Computer reported fiscal Q1 2027 revenue of $19.95 billion on 3 November, up about 298% and above estimates, per Investing.com.
- Analyst targets sit far above the price. 24/7 Wall St reported on 2 November that Susquehanna reaffirmed a $700 target, Mizuho raised its target to $650 and Melius holds a $735 target.
Bear case
- Data-center politics turned hostile. 24/7 Wall St reported on 11 November that Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa has promised a moratorium on all data-center approvals once she takes office in January. Outgoing Governor Greg Abbott paused new permits in September pending a state audit.
- The AI selloff was broad. Benzinga linked the Nasdaq 100's worst day since March 2020, on 5 November, to the Democrats' midterm sweep. Dell fell 37% over the month to 11 November, the most of the three server makers 24/7 Wall St tracked.
- Memory is the binding cost. Dell management named "DRAM, DRAM, DRAM, followed by NAND, NAND, NAND" as its component constraint, per 24/7 Wall St on 11 November. Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan said on 29 October that customers signalled a PC slowdown on memory prices and availability.
- Consensus already sits above guidance. Zacks put fiscal Q3 consensus at $50.63 billion of revenue and $6.63 of adjusted EPS on 28 October, against Dell's $49.0 billion and $6.50 guide.
- Silver Lake sold near the high. SEC Form 4 filings show Silver Lake entities sold 70,352 shares on 9 October 2026 at about $582.30 on average. Director Lynn Vojvodich Radakovich sold 2,022 shares at $460.00 on 22 October under a Rule 10b5-1 plan.
- Rates may rise again. October payrolls rose 165,000 against 65,000 expected, which Benzinga said on 6 November kept a December Federal Reserve rate hike in play.
Price setup
Dell closed at $373.68 on 11 November 2026, up from $334.38 on 10 November. The 52-week high is $595.51, set intraday on 18 September 2026. The lowest close of the November selloff was $316.91 on 5 November.
On adjusted daily closes as of 11 November, the 50-day moving average is $498.86 and the 200-day moving average is $340.21. The 11 November close put the shares back above the 200-day average and still well under the 50-day. The 52-week closing low is $111.07, from 20 January 2026, so the shares remain more than three times that level.
What the price reflects: at $373.68 on 11 November, the market assigns the $95 billion backlog and the $192.0 billion revenue guide a discount of 37.3% from the 18 September high, a sign that investors doubt orders will convert to revenue at the September margin. TradingKey reported the shares gave back part of the gain in premarket trading on 12 November.
Catalysts ahead
- 17 November 2026: NVIDIA fiscal third-quarter results. Its data-center outlook bears directly on the AI-spending doubts behind Dell's fall and sets the tone for server makers ahead of Dell's report.
- 24 November 2026: Dell fiscal Q3 FY27 results and conference call. Settles revenue against the $49.0 billion guide and $50.63 billion consensus, ISG margin against 15.0%, and how much memory costs hit PCs and servers.
What would change the view
A daily close above $498.86, the 50-day average of adjusted closes as of 11 November 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; or a fiscal Q3 report on 24 November 2026 with revenue above $50.63 billion and a fiscal-2027 revenue guide raised above $192.0 billion.
What it trades with
Dell trades with AI hardware and its buyers: Super Micro Computer, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, NVIDIA and CoreWeave. On 11 November, CoreWeave rose almost 25%, per SiliconANGLE, and Dell, Super Micro and HPE rose together. Its PC business ties it to HP Inc. and Intel through memory prices. Rate expectations add a further link while a December Federal Reserve hike remains in play.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Fiscal Q2 FY27 revenue was $47.0 billion, up 58%; AI orders were $60.9 billion, AI-optimized server revenue $16.4 billion and AI-server backlog $95 billion. Dell Technologies fiscal 2027 second-quarter earnings release (8-K exhibit 99.1) · as of
- ISG operating margin was 15.0% in fiscal Q2 FY27 versus 8.8% a year earlier, on ISG revenue of $31.8 billion, up 89%. Dell Technologies fiscal 2027 second-quarter earnings release · as of
- Dell guided fiscal Q3 FY27 revenue to $49.0 billion and adjusted EPS to $6.50, and raised its FY27 AI-server revenue outlook to $74.0 billion from $60.0 billion. Dell Technologies fiscal 2027 second-quarter earnings release (8-K exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Consensus for fiscal Q3 FY27 is $50.63 billion of revenue and $6.63 of adjusted EPS. Zacks Equity Research via Yahoo Finance, 28 October 2026 · as of
- CoreWeave reported Q3 revenue of $3.66 billion, up 168%, a $132.5 billion backlog and a 2026 capital-spending range of $37 billion to $39 billion. SiliconANGLE, 10 November 2026 · as of
- Dell set its fiscal Q3 FY27 results conference call for 24 November 2026. Dell Technologies press release, 10 November 2026 · as of
- Silver Lake entities sold 70,352 Dell shares on 9 October 2026 at about $582.30 average, after option exercises. SEC Form 4 filings dated 14 October 2026 · as of
- Texas Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa has promised a moratorium on all data-center approvals once in office in January 2027. 24/7 Wall St, 11 November 2026 · as of
Sources
- Dell Jumps 11% as AI Server Stocks Rebound From a Rough Month; Super Micro Surges 8%, Hewlett Packard Enterprise Advances 6% · 247wallst.com ·
- CoreWeave arrests stock slide after posting a strong earnings beat and raising its full year guidance · siliconangle.com ·
- Dell Gives Back Part of Its 12% Jump as Premarket Tests $362.04 Support · tradingkey.com
- Dell Stocks Jump 11.42% as CoreWeave's Bigger Spending Plan Revives AI Server Bets · tradingview.com
- Dell Crashed by 20% Over The Last Month: A Respected Wall Street Analyst Says 65% Gains Are Incoming · 247wallst.com ·
- Why is Dell Technologies stock surging today? · za.investing.com ·
- Dell Fell Nearly 11% on Intel's PC and Memory Warning. PCs Earned Just 19% of Its Segment Profit Last Quarter · tikr.com
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