MTSI · MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $292.34
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
20.6% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $292.34, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 29.1% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $292.34, over the 200-day average and the 14 October 2026 close of $291.33, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again. A fiscal first-quarter 2027 revenue result above the top of the $450–460 million guide would also point the same way.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 2 October 2026, filed 12 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 425
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +62.7
- Gross margin (%)
- 59.9
- Operating margin (%)
- 31.6
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 293
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 452
- Price to earnings (×)
- 53.2
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 13.1
All filed numbers
What MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 425 | +62.7 | 59.9 | 31.6 |
| first filed | 342 | +35.8 | 58.3 | 22.5 |
| first filed | 289 | +22.5 | 56.9 | 17.6 |
| first filed | 272 | +24.5 | 55.9 | 15.9 |
| first filed | 261 | +30.1 | 54.5 | 15.2 |
| first filed | 252 | +32.3 | 55.3 | 14.9 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 160 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 335 | 139 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) quarter to 3 July 2026, filed 6 August 2026; against the quarter to 4 July 2025 | +3.4 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 357 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 64.4 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 293 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 792 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt plus current maturities | 341 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 452 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −81.8% on a year | 1.4 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 210 |
| Inventory ($M) | 284 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 1,697 |
| Market value ($M) | 17,819 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 17,368 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 13.1 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 56.9 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 53.2 |
| Price to book value (×) | 10.5 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 1.6 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 3.5% of shares outstanding sold short, 1.7 days of average trading to cover, −19.8% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $21.9M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $302.0M |
The thesis
MACOM's results are strong, but the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. Fiscal fourth-quarter revenue of $424.8 million landed at the top of the company's $415–425 million guide, and the chip group still fell into a bear market on the day of the report. Nvidia's 17 November 2026 report and the delivery of the $450–460 million fiscal first-quarter guide settle which force wins.
MACOM reported on 5 November 2026 (Form 8-K). Revenue rose 62.7% from a year earlier and 24.1% from the prior quarter. Adjusted earnings per share were $2.09 against a guide of $1.97–$2.03. Fiscal 2026 revenue was $1,327.6 million, up 37.3%.
The shares closed at $190.35 on 5 November 2026, down from $233.13 on 4 November 2026. They closed at $249.86 on 11 November 2026, after $226.48 on 10 November 2026. That close is 40.4% below the 52-week intraday high of $418.90 set on 27 May 2026, and it sits under both the 50-day average of $269.23 and the 200-day average of $283.68.
The market has priced in a sector reset more than a company miss. The guide for the next quarter came in above the $433.269 million revenue estimate cited by Benzinga on 5 November 2026, and the shares still closed 18% lower than the day before. The rebound since is a sector move: CoreWeave and 16 other AI stocks rose more than 10% on 11 November 2026, according to a Quick Spark headline.
Bullish and bearish views on MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc.
The bull case on MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI), in brief: the quarter beat the guide. The bear case: the chip group broke down on report day.
Bull case
- The quarter beat the guide. Revenue of $424.8 million topped the $420.233 million analyst estimate, and adjusted gross margin of 61.3% was above the 60–61% guide (8-K and Benzinga, 5 November 2026).
- Data Center is accelerating. Segment revenue was $188.1 million, up 37% from the prior quarter, per a Finviz analysis of the call dated 5 November 2026. The same analysis puts fiscal 2027 Data Center growth at a base case of roughly 80%, against about 50% on the August call.
- The next-quarter guide is above estimates. MACOM guided fiscal first-quarter revenue to $450–460 million, adjusted gross margin to 62–63% and adjusted EPS to $2.21–$2.29, against a $2.04 analyst estimate (Benzinga, 5 November 2026).
- Backlog is at a record. Finviz reports that book-to-bill, the ratio of orders received to revenue shipped, was 1.4 in the quarter, with backlog at a record (5 November 2026).
- The balance sheet carries the ramp. Cash and investments totalled about $914 million at 2 October 2026, against $340.7 million of short-term debt, the convertible notes due December 2029 (8-K, 5 November 2026).
Bear case
- The chip group broke down on report day. Benzinga reported on 5 November 2026 that chip stocks had their worst day since 2020, with 28 of the 30 biggest names in a bear market. MACOM closed at $190.35 that day.
- Orders cooled. Book-to-bill fell to 1.4 from 1.6 in the prior quarter, per Finviz on 5 November 2026.
- Working capital grew quickly. Receivables rose about 41% over the year and inventory rose $46 million, per the same Finviz analysis.
- Analysts cut targets. Truist cut its target to $310 from $375 and kept Buy, Needham cut to $300 and kept Buy, Evercore ISI cut to $227 and kept Outperform, and Susquehanna cut to $220 with a Neutral rating (5 November 2026 and 6 November 2026).
- Executives sold into the rebound. CFO John Kober sold 22,009 shares at an average $207.16 on 6 November to 9 November 2026, and General Counsel Ambra Roth sold 9,497 shares at an average $226.65 on 9 November 2026. Both sales ran under Rule 10b5-1 plans (SEC Form 4, filed 9 November 2026).
- The $2 billion figure is an ambition. Management framed roughly $2 billion of fiscal 2027 revenue as a target, not guidance (Finviz, 5 November 2026).
Price setup
The shares closed at $249.86 on 11 November 2026. The three-month change is −18.6%, from $307.06 on 13 August 2026. The 52-week closing low is $155.39, set on 20 November 2025.
The post-report closes show the range: $190.35 on 5 November 2026, $210.98 on 6 November 2026, $230.00 on 9 November 2026, $226.48 on 10 November 2026 and $249.86 on 11 November 2026. The 5 November 2026 close is the nearest reference low. The 50-day average of $269.23 and the 200-day average of $283.68, both as of 11 November 2026, sit above the last close.
The rebound has reclaimed the pre-report close of $233.13 from 4 November 2026. A close above the 200-day average would put the shares back above both averages for the first time since the October decline.
Catalysts ahead
- 17 November 2026: Nvidia fiscal third-quarter report (call at 5 p.m. ET). A large read on AI-hardware demand for the chip group MACOM trades with; it tests whether the November sector selloff eases.
- ~5 February 2027 (est.): MACOM fiscal first-quarter FY27 report. Tests delivery of the $450–460 million revenue guide and whether Data Center growth tracks the roughly 80% base case.
What would change the view
A daily close above $292.34, over the 200-day average and the 14 October 2026 close of $291.33, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again. A fiscal first-quarter 2027 revenue result above the top of the $450–460 million guide would also point the same way.
What it trades with
MACOM trades with the optical and semiconductor group. It fell from $233.13 to $190.35 on the 5 November 2026 sector selloff and rose on 11 November 2026 when AI stocks rallied broadly. In October the group fell on credit concerns at the GPU-cloud provider CoreWeave (Benzinga, 16 October 2026) and on rate-hike fears after hot inflation data (Benzinga, 15 October 2026).
Hyperscaler and GPU-cloud spending plans drive demand for MACOM's data-center chips. Nvidia's quarterly report on 17 November 2026 is the next large read on that demand.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Fiscal Q4 revenue was $424.8 million, up 62.7% year over year and 24.1% sequentially; adjusted gross margin 61.3%, adjusted EPS $2.09; fiscal 2026 revenue $1,327.6 million, up 37.3%. MACOM fiscal Q4 FY26 results release (Form 8-K) · as of
- MACOM guided fiscal Q1 FY27 revenue to $450–460 million, adjusted gross margin to 62–63% and adjusted EPS to $2.21–$2.29. MACOM fiscal Q4 FY26 results release (Form 8-K) · as of
- Data Center revenue was $188.1 million, up 37% sequentially; fiscal 2027 Data Center growth base case is roughly 80%; book-to-bill was 1.4 versus 1.6 the prior quarter, with record backlog. Finviz analysis of the fiscal Q4 call · as of
- Receivables grew about 41% and inventory rose by $46 million during fiscal 2026. Finviz analysis of the fiscal Q4 call · as of
- Cash and investments totalled about $914 million; short-term debt was $340.7 million at 2 October 2026. MACOM fiscal Q4 FY26 results release (Form 8-K) · as of
- Truist cut its target to $310 from $375 (Buy), Needham to $300 (Buy), Evercore ISI to $227 (Outperform) and Susquehanna to $220 (Neutral). Benzinga analyst ratings · as of
- CFO John Kober sold 22,009 shares at an average $207.16 and General Counsel Ambra Roth sold 9,497 shares at an average $226.65, both under Rule 10b5-1 plans. SEC Form 4 filings · as of
- Chip stocks had their worst day since 2020 on 5 November 2026, with 28 of the 30 biggest names in a bear market. Benzinga · as of
Sources
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