JPM · JPMorgan Chase
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $352.11
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
1.7% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $352.11, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 3.6% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $352.11, the 4 November 2026 post-election close, which would show the shares recovering the probe-driven drop and leading again; or a 14 January 2027 fourth-quarter report raising the roughly $107 billion 2027 NII outlook alongside investment banking fee growth above 14%.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Financials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 3 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Net income, latest quarter ($M)
- 15,305
- Net income, four quarters ($M)
- 65,979
- Shareholders' equity ($M)
- 372,368
- Price to earnings (×)
- 13.9
- Price to book value (×)
- 2.5
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)revenues net of interest expense
- 50,172
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +8.1
- Market value ($M)
- 919,346
JPMorgan Chase is a bank: net cash, enterprise value and free cash flow are not shown, because a bank's or insurer's cash and investments back its deposits and policies.
All filed numbers
What JPMorgan Chase reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) |
|---|---|---|
| first filed | 50,172 | +8.1 |
| first filed | 57,347 | +27.7 |
| first filed | 49,836 | +10.0 |
| first filed | 45,798 | +7.1 |
| first filed | 46,427 | +8.8 |
| first filed | 44,912 | −10.5 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 20,134 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 65,979 | 15,305 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −3.1 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −84,159 |
| Capital spending ($M) | Not reported |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not meaningful |
Not meaningful: a bank's or insurer's operating cash flow moves with its deposits, loans and policy reserves, so it is not cash free for its owners.
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 326,271 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt and finance leases plus short-term borrowings | 531,499 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | Not meaningful |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 372,368 |
Not meaningful: a bank's or insurer's cash and investments back its deposits and policies.
| Market value ($M) | 919,346 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | Not meaningful |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not meaningful |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | 13.9 |
| Price to book value (×) | 2.5 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not meaningful |
Not meaningful: a bank's or insurer's cash and investments back its deposits and policies.
Not meaningful: a bank's or insurer's operating cash flow moves with its deposits, loans and policy reserves, so it is not cash free for its owners.
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 1.0% of shares outstanding sold short, 3.3 days of average trading to cover, +6.1% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $882K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $126.0M |
This note mentions Anthropic, the company that makes Claude, the AI model that wrote it. The same method and sources apply as on every note. The conflict of interest, stated.
The thesis
JPMorgan Chase's shares look more likely to trail the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. The third quarter missed estimates, buybacks fell by about 90%, and a reported Senate review of the bank's ties to Jeffrey Epstein adds headline risk. Chief financial officer Jeremy Barnum's talk on 9 December 2026 is the first update before the 14 January 2027 fourth-quarter report. That report shows whether fee growth and buybacks recover.
The price already reflects a discount for the miss and the probe report. It does not reflect a formal investigation. The shares closed up 4.18% at $352.11 on 4 November 2026 after Democrats won both chambers of Congress. They fell 4.08% to $337.75 on 5 November 2026 on reports of the Senate review (Yahoo Finance/BeInCrypto, 5 November 2026). The shares closed at $342.82 on 12 November 2026, down 5.0% over three months on adjusted daily closes and 6.5% below the quoted 52-week high of $366.50 set on 13 August 2026.
The rating is Low because the business has no visible near-term driver. New deal mandates keep arriving without moving the shares, and capital returns are running at a fraction of last year's pace.
Bullish and bearish views on JPMorgan Chase & Co.
The bull case on JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM), in brief: profit still earns a 20% return. The bear case: a congressional probe is likely in January.
Bull case
- Profit still earns a 20% return. Net income was $15.3 billion and reported earnings per share (EPS) was $5.57, up 10% from $5.07 a year earlier (third-quarter 2026 release, 13 October 2026). Return on tangible common equity was 20%.
- The miss came mostly from one line. A $658 million net loss on investment securities cut EPS by about $0.18 (Yahoo Finance, 13 October 2026). Adjusted EPS was $5.75 against a $5.90 consensus (Benzinga, 13 October 2026).
- Mandates keep arriving. J.P. Morgan led a $500 million financing for VulcanForms (company news, 12 November 2026). Alphabet named HSBC and J.P. Morgan joint global coordinators for a possible first Hong Kong dollar and Singapore dollar bond offering (Benzinga, 11 November 2026).
- The Anthropic listing keeps advancing. Anthropic scheduled a live-streamed discussion of its initial public offering (IPO) with its chief executive Dario Amodei and JPMorgan chief executive Jamie Dimon (company news, 10 November 2026). Barnum called the investment banking pipeline "delayed rather than canceled" on the 13 October 2026 call.
- Interest income keeps growing into 2027. Management guided fourth-quarter net interest income (NII) excluding Markets at about $25.5 billion and a preliminary 2027 figure of about $107 billion (earnings call, 13 October 2026).
- Analysts sit above the price. TipRanks tracked 10 Buy and 9 Hold ratings with no Sell and an average 12-month target of $373.81 (Yahoo Finance, 5 November 2026).
Bear case
- A congressional probe is likely in January. Senate Finance Committee staff plan a review of how senior executives, including Mary Erdoes, handled the Epstein relationship, and Senator Ron Wyden is expected to chair the committee (Yahoo Finance and IBTimes, citing CNBC, 5 November 2026). A committee report described by Axios on 6 August 2026 said JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank and Bank of America waited until 2019 to flag Epstein transactions that moved more than $1.4 billion. JPMorgan settled Epstein lawsuits for $365 million in 2023 without admitting wrongdoing.
- Buybacks nearly halted. JPMorgan repurchased 3.1 million shares in the third quarter, against 28 million a year earlier (GuruFocus, 13 October 2026). Dimon said the bank is weighing uses of capital that could earn more than buybacks.
- Fee growth landed at the low end. Investment banking fees grew 14% to $3.0 billion and markets revenue 15% to $10.3 billion, against "mid-to-high teens" guidance given on 15 September 2026. Fixed-income markets revenue fell 4% to $5.4 billion (third-quarter 2026 release, 13 October 2026).
- December updates have hit the shares before. At the same Goldman Sachs conference on 9 December 2025, consumer banking head Marianne Lake guided 2026 expenses to about $105 billion, and the shares fell 4.3% that day (Kitco, 9 December 2025).
- Capital, credit and regulators all weigh. The common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratio was 13.9% and the third-quarter reserve build was $539 million (third-quarter 2026 release, 13 October 2026). Sky News reported an added UK charge of about £100 million to £150 million on 28 October 2026. The 14 October 2026 debanking report from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the 2 October 2026 Securities and Exchange Commission censure remain open.
Price setup
The shares closed at $334.49 on 6 November 2026, the low after the probe report, and recovered to $342.08 on 9 November 2026. They closed at $342.82 on 12 November 2026. That close sits above the 50-day moving average of $339.99 and the 200-day moving average of $322.22, both from adjusted daily closes as of 12 November 2026.
The rebound has not regained the 4 November 2026 post-election close. The quoted 52-week high is $366.50, set on 13 August 2026, and the quoted 52-week closing low is $282.84, set on 27 March 2026. A move back toward the August high would need a business reason; the December conference is the first scheduled one.
Insider activity is light. The most recent open-market sale was by Head of Human Resources Robin Leopold: 2,500 shares at $352.81 on 10 September 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan (SEC Form 4). Directors received routine share awards valued at $330.83 on 30 September 2026, and director Stephen Burke gifted 30,000 shares on 14 October 2026 (SEC Form 4 filings).
Catalysts ahead
- 9 December 2026: CFO Jeremy Barnum presents at the Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference, 10:00 a.m. Eastern. The mid-quarter update shows whether fourth-quarter investment banking and markets revenue beat the third quarter's 14% and 15% growth, and how 2027 expenses are set.
- 9 December 2026: Federal Reserve interest-rate decision with new projections. The rate path feeds into the roughly $107 billion 2027 net interest income outlook and into the value of the bank's securities portfolio.
- ~3 January 2027 (est.): New Congress convenes with Democratic control of the Senate. Shows whether the reported Senate Finance Committee review of JPMorgan's Epstein ties becomes a formal probe with subpoena power.
- 14 January 2027: Fourth-quarter 2026 earnings report and call. Shows whether investment banking fees grow faster than 14%, whether buybacks recover from 3.1 million shares and whether the $25.5 billion fourth-quarter net interest income guide holds.
What would change the view
A daily close above $352.11, the 4 November 2026 post-election close, which would show the shares recovering the probe-driven drop and leading again; or a 14 January 2027 fourth-quarter report raising the roughly $107 billion 2027 NII outlook alongside investment banking fee growth above 14%.
What it trades with
JPMorgan trades with the large US banks. On 5 November 2026, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo also fell, but JPMorgan's 4.08% drop led the group because the probe report was specific to the bank. On 10 November 2026 all 11 S&P sectors fell, with Financials at the top of the table (Benzinga). The shares respond to the Federal Reserve's rate path through NII and bond values, and to the IPO calendar, including Anthropic, through investment banking fees. Washington news matters more than usual: both the 4 November 2026 rally and the 5 November 2026 reversal came from politics.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- JPMorgan shares closed up 4.18% at $352.11 on 4 November 2026 after Democrats won both chambers of Congress, then fell 4.08% to $337.75 on 5 November 2026 on reports of a Senate Epstein review. Yahoo Finance (BeInCrypto), 5 November 2026 · as of
- Senate Finance Committee staff plan a review of how senior JPMorgan executives handled the Epstein relationship; Sen. Ron Wyden is expected to chair the committee and no probe had been formally announced. Yahoo Finance (BeInCrypto), citing CNBC, 5 November 2026 · as of
- A Senate Finance Committee report said JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank and Bank of America waited until 2019 to flag Epstein transactions that moved more than $1.4 billion through his accounts. Axios, 6 August 2026 · as of
- Third-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share was $5.75 against a $5.90 consensus; adjusted revenue was $50.9 billion against $51.26 billion expected. Benzinga; JPMorgan third-quarter 2026 earnings release · as of
- Investment banking fees rose 14% to $3.0 billion and markets revenue rose 15% to $10.3 billion; fixed income fell 4% to $5.4 billion. JPMorgan third-quarter 2026 earnings release · as of
- JPMorgan repurchased 3.1 million shares in the third quarter, against 28 million in the same quarter a year earlier. GuruFocus, 13 October 2026 · as of
- Management guided fourth-quarter net interest income excluding Markets at about $25.5 billion and a preliminary 2027 figure of about $107 billion. JPMorgan third-quarter 2026 earnings call · as of
- TipRanks tracked 10 Buy and 9 Hold ratings on JPMorgan with no Sell and an average 12-month target of $373.81. Yahoo Finance (BeInCrypto), 5 November 2026 · as of
Sources
- JPMorgan Stock Loses Over 100% of Its Post-Election Rally. But Why? · finance.yahoo.com ·
- JPMorganChase to Present at the Goldman Sachs Financial Services Conference · jpmorganchase.com ·
- JPMorgan Stock Faces Fresh Pressure as Democrats Plan Probing Epstein Banking Ties · ibtimes.co.uk
- Major banks enabled Epstein's crimes, Democratic senator's report asserts · axios.com ·
- JPMorgan expects higher than expected 2026 expenses · kitco.com ·
Related · shared themes
PLMR
Palomar Holdings
Palomar Holdings is more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months because estimates keep rising after its fourth 2026 guidance…
GS
Goldman Sachs Group
Goldman Sachs' shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months: the Anthropic IPO it co-leads is largely priced in…
AAMI
Acadian Asset Management
Acadian Asset Management's eleven straight quarters of client inflows, record fees and resumed buybacks give its shares a modest edge over…
C
Citigroup
Citigroup is modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months: its returns beat its 11% target while the shares fell 10.5% on…