GS · Goldman Sachs Group
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $1,000
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
8.3% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $1,000.00, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 12.4% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $1,000, the top of the range where recent broker target cuts landed, which would show the shares leading again. Fourth-quarter investment banking fees above $3.22 billion with a rising fee backlog would also prove the call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Financials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 2 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Net income, latest quarter ($M)
- 5,294
- Net income, four quarters ($M)
- 22,169
- Shareholders' equity ($M)
- 124,929
- Price to earnings (×)
- 11.9
- Price to book value (×)
- 2.1
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)revenues net of interest expense
- 18,679
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +23.0
- Market value ($M)
- 264,368
Goldman Sachs Group is a bank: net cash, enterprise value and free cash flow are not shown, because a bank's or insurer's cash and investments back its deposits and policies.
All filed numbers
What Goldman Sachs Group reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) |
|---|---|---|
| first filed | 18,679 | +23.0 |
| first filed | 20,338 | +39.5 |
| first filed | 17,227 | +14.4 |
| first filed | 13,454 | −3.0 |
| first filed | 15,184 | +19.6 |
| first filed | 14,583 | +14.5 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 7,003 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 22,169 | 5,294 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −4.4 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −37,858 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 2,123 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not meaningful |
Not meaningful: a bank's or insurer's operating cash flow moves with its deposits, loans and policy reserves, so it is not cash free for its owners.
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 176,767 |
| Debt ($M) | 444,816 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | Not meaningful |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +27.4% on a year | 158 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 124,929 |
Not meaningful: a bank's or insurer's cash and investments back its deposits and policies.
| Market value ($M) | 264,368 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | Not meaningful |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not meaningful |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | 11.9 |
| Price to book value (×) | 2.1 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not meaningful |
Not meaningful: a bank's or insurer's cash and investments back its deposits and policies.
Not meaningful: a bank's or insurer's operating cash flow moves with its deposits, loans and policy reserves, so it is not cash free for its owners.
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 2.4% of shares outstanding sold short, 2.8 days of average trading to cover, +4.4% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $12.0M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $160.1M |
This note mentions Anthropic, the company that makes Claude, the AI model that wrote it. The same method and sources apply as on every note. The conflict of interest, stated.
The thesis
Goldman Sachs' shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. The Anthropic listing that Goldman co-leads is largely reflected in the price already. Meanwhile, the risk of further Federal Reserve rate increases and a smaller fee backlog weigh on 2027 banking fees. The fourth-quarter report, expected around 14 January 2027, settles the case by showing whether the investment banking backlog grows again.
The market has already priced in a successful Anthropic deal. Anthropic set its range on 10 November 2026, and CNBC reported its order book already covered. Goldman closed at $910.19 that day. It rose to $926.81 on 11 November 2026, when Fortune, citing the Financial Times, reported that bankers were weighing above-range pricing. It closed at $913.60 on 12 November 2026.
The rating is Low for two reasons. Third-quarter results were strong, but the company said its fee backlog fell during the quarter. Rates are also more likely to rise than fall. On 6 November 2026, Fox Business put futures-market odds of a December increase at 76.8%. On 11 November 2026, company news reported that Goldman's own economists had added a forecast of a further increase in March.
Bullish and bearish views on The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.
The bull case on The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS), in brief: Anthropic's range is set and covered. The bear case: rate increases look more likely than cuts.
Bull case
- Anthropic's range is set and covered. Anthropic set a range of $70 to $78 for 825 million shares on 10 November 2026, raising up to $64.35 billion (CNBC, citing sources). TechCrunch put the implied valuation at $1.404 trillion. Pricing is expected on 18 November 2026 and Nasdaq trading on 19 November 2026 under the ticker ANT. Goldman and Morgan Stanley lead the deal.
- Bankers are weighing above-range pricing. Fortune, citing the Financial Times on 11 November 2026, reported that Anthropic's bankers are considering a price above $78, which would value the company at $1.5 trillion or more. A separate $26 billion purchase of Anthropic stock by seven of its chip and cloud suppliers is priced at the IPO price.
- Third-quarter earnings were strong. Diluted earnings per share (EPS) were $17.01 on net revenues of $18.68 billion, up 23% year on year (Form 8-K, 13 October 2026). Investment banking fees were $3.22 billion, up 21%. Equities net revenues were $6.44 billion, up 72%.
- Strategists see heavy 2027 issuance. On 9 November 2026, Goldman's strategists warned of the largest net US equity supply since the 2000 tech bubble. New share issuance pays underwriting fees to the lead banks.
- Average target sits above the shares. On 9 November 2026, TradingKey put the average analyst target at $1,045.75, with a high of $1,250 and a low of $875.
Bear case
- Rate increases look more likely than cuts. The Federal Open Market Committee held rates at 3.75% to 4.00% on 28 October 2026 in a 10-2 vote, and both dissenters wanted an increase. After the 6 November 2026 jobs report showed 165,000 new payrolls and 4.1% unemployment, Fox Business put December increase odds at 76.8%. Goldman economists added a March increase to their forecast on 11 November 2026.
- The fee backlog is shrinking. The 13 October 2026 earnings release said the investment banking fee backlog was lower than at the end of the second quarter, and slightly lower than at the end of 2025.
- One deal, many banks. FinanceFeeds reported on 5 November 2026 that a 22-bank syndicate shares the Anthropic offering. The fees also land as a single fourth-quarter event that does not repeat in 2027.
- Brokers cut targets after results. TradingKey reported on 9 November 2026 that recent target cuts by major brokerages landed at $950 and above. Benzinga lists a UBS cut from $1,010 on 2 November 2026, with the rating kept at Neutral.
- Executives sold near today's price. Chairman and CEO David Solomon sold 12,000 shares in the open market at an average of $910.72 on 27 October 2026 (SEC Form 4). Chief Administrative Officer Ericka Leslie sold 250 shares at an average of $890.25 on 22 October 2026, and another 250 at an average of $917.22 on 27 October 2026 and 28 October 2026 (SEC Form 4 filings).
- Buyback capacity narrowed. The common equity tier 1 (CET1) capital ratio fell to 12.4% at the end of the third quarter, from 12.9% at the end of the second (Form 8-K, 13 October 2026).
Price setup
The shares closed at $913.60 on 12 November 2026. That is below the 50-day moving average of $924.31 and the 200-day moving average of $950.26, both from adjusted daily closes as of 12 November 2026. The shares are down 11.7% over three months, from a $1,039.42 close on 14 August 2026. The last close is 20.8% below the 52-week intraday high of $1,153.99, set on 15 July 2026. The 52-week closing low is $773.70, from 20 November 2025.
Recent closes show how far the price swings. The shares closed at $868.95 on 5 November 2026 after a 6.07% fall that TradingKey set against a 2.91% sector decline. They closed at $865.82 on 6 November 2026, then recovered to $906.22 on 9 November 2026. The highest close since then was $926.81, on 11 November 2026.
Several reference prices sit near or above the last close. The CEO sold at $910.72 on 27 October 2026, just below it. The 50-day and 200-day averages sit above it. Further up is $1,048.73, the average price Goldman paid for 2.9 million shares it bought back in the third quarter. Below the close, the lowest broker target is $875 (TradingKey, 9 November 2026).
Catalysts ahead
- 17 November 2026: Goldman's 16th Annual Private Innovative Company Conference begins (runs to 19 November 2026). Gives a read on private companies' listing plans that feed 2027 underwriting fees.
- ~18 November 2026 (est.): Anthropic expected to price its IPO, which Goldman co-leads. Pricing above $78 enlarges the fee pool; a cut or delay removes the largest fee event of the quarter.
- ~19 November 2026 (est.): Anthropic's expected first day of Nasdaq trading. A weak debut would cool the 2027 listing pipeline that higher underwriting fees depend on; a strong one would support it.
- 9 December 2026: Federal Reserve policy decision. An increase raises deal-financing costs into 2027; a hold removes a main pressure on the shares.
- ~14 January 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 results. Shows whether the investment banking fee backlog grew again after falling in the third quarter.
What would change the view
A daily close above $1,000, the top of the range where recent broker target cuts landed, which would show the shares leading again. Fourth-quarter investment banking fees above $3.22 billion with a rising fee backlog would also prove the call wrong.
What it trades with
Goldman trades with large US banks and capital-markets firms, and it moves further than JPMorgan or Bank of America on both up and down days. TradingKey reported that on 9 November 2026, JPMorgan gained 2.45% and Bank of America 2.89%, while Goldman closed up at $906.22 from $865.82. Morgan Stanley is the closest peer and co-leads the Anthropic offering, so the two stocks carry the same deal risk. Goldman shares also react to Fed rate expectations and to how AI stocks trade, because AI listings make up a large part of the 2026 underwriting pipeline.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Anthropic set an IPO range of $70 to $78 for 825 million shares, up to $64.35 billion; pricing expected 18 November 2026 and Nasdaq trading 19 November 2026 under ANT; book reported covered at the range. CNBC, 10 November 2026 · as of
- Anthropic's bankers are weighing a price above the $70-to-$78 range, which would value the company at $1.5 trillion or more. Fortune, citing the Financial Times, 11 November 2026 · as of
- 3Q26 net revenues $18.68B, up 23% year on year; diluted EPS $17.01; investment banking fees $3.22B, up 21%; fee backlog lower than end of 2Q26. Goldman Sachs 3Q26 earnings release (Form 8-K, 13 October 2026) · as of
- 3Q26 buybacks $3.00B (2.9 million shares at an average $1,048.73); CET1 ratio 12.4% versus 12.9% at end of 2Q26. Goldman Sachs 3Q26 earnings release (Form 8-K, 13 October 2026) · as of
- Chairman and CEO David Solomon sold 12,000 shares in the open market at an average $910.72 on 27 October 2026. SEC Form 4 filed 27 October 2026 · as of
- US payrolls rose 165,000 in October with unemployment at 4.1%; CME FedWatch odds of a December rate increase rose to 76.8% from 66.9% a week earlier. Fox Business, October 2026 jobs report coverage · as of
- Goldman Sachs economists added a forecast of a further US rate increase in March, citing recent inflation data. Goldman Sachs economics research, reported in company news 11 November 2026 · as of
- UBS lowered its Goldman Sachs price target from $1,010 and kept a Neutral rating. Benzinga analyst ratings page · as of
Sources
- Anthropic sets IPO price range of $70 to $78, looks to start trading Nov. 19, sources say · cnbc.com ·
- Anthropic sets a $1.4 trillion IPO target, but bankers may already be aiming higher · fortune.com ·
- Anthropic sets IPO price range of $70 to $78 per share to reach an implied valuation of $1.404 trillion · techcrunch.com ·
- Goldman Sachs Group Inc Stock (GS) Moved Up by 4.60% on Nov 9: Drivers Behind the Movement · tradingkey.com ·
- Goldman Sachs Group Inc Stock (GS) Moved Down by 6.07% on Nov 5: What Investors Need To Know · tradingkey.com ·
- October jobs report: US economy added 165,000 jobs last month · foxbusiness.com
- Anthropic IPO Roadshow Looms With No Price Range In Sight · financefeeds.com ·
- Goldman Sachs Group (GS) Stock Price Target 2026 & Analyst Forecast · benzinga.com
Related · shared themes
PLMR
Palomar Holdings
Palomar Holdings is more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months because estimates keep rising after its fourth 2026 guidance…
JPM
JPMorgan Chase
JPMorgan Chase's shares look more likely to trail the S&P 500 over three months after a third-quarter miss, a roughly 90% buyback cut and a…
AAMI
Acadian Asset Management
Acadian Asset Management's eleven straight quarters of client inflows, record fees and resumed buybacks give its shares a modest edge over…
C
Citigroup
Citigroup is modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months: its returns beat its 11% target while the shares fell 10.5% on…