Watchlist
AAMI · Acadian Asset Management Inc.
Last analysed ·
Against its published line
Nothing is through its line on this close.
How to read this
The red mark is the published kill line — the price that would prove the pick wrong. The dot is where the name closed on 18 September 2026; a dot LEFT of the mark has closed through its line.
Distance is drawn on a square-root scale, so close calls get the room. Past 8% a row stops competing and reads well clear, with a hollow dot to say the figure is off the drawn scale. Rows run tightest first.
Current thesis
Acadian Asset Management’s repricing depends on client inflows sustaining higher fees and margins. Positive third-quarter flows, management fees of at least $176.5 million and an economic net income operating margin of at least 40.3% would confirm the case; a weekly close below $84 would invalidate it.
Kill line
A weekly close below $84 ends the continuation thesis at the research boundary published on 2026-09-05; negative third-quarter net client cash flows would independently invalidate the organic-growth leg after second-quarter inflows of $4.3 billion.
Pick status
Open commitment scored if the kill line above fires How this is scored →Latest analysis and events for AAMI —
As of 13 September 2026, the latest FrontierPicks analysis for Acadian Asset Management Inc. (AAMI): Acadian Asset Management’s repricing depends on client inflows sustaining higher fees and margins. Positive third-quarter flows, management fees of at least $176.5 million and an economic net income operating margin of at least 40.3% would confirm the case; a weekly close below $84 would invalidate it.
Kill line: A weekly close below $84 ends the continuation thesis at the research boundary published on 2026-09-05; negative third-quarter net client cash flows would independently invalidate the organic-growth leg after second-quarter inflows of $4.3 billion.
Current Thesis
Acadian Asset Management’s repricing rests on client inflows sustaining higher fee revenue and margins; third-quarter results will test that case, while a weekly close below $84 would invalidate the price thesis. The operating evidence remains the quarter ended 2026-06-30: assets under management (AUM) of $232.7 billion, net client inflows of $4.3 billion and an economic net income (ENI) operating margin of 40.3%, according to the second-quarter earnings materials.
The change since the September 5 assessment is an analyst revision without a rating upgrade: Benzinga reported on 2026-09-09 that Evercore ISI maintained In-Line and raised its price target to $98. The adjusted market close was $91.02 on 2026-09-11, with the shares up 16.0% over three months but 6.4% below their adjusted 52-week high. The narrative is maturing — the July 30 results established the operating story, and the September 9 target revision extended existing coverage; this is an inference about the evidence sequence, not a measurement of investor participation. The company’s earnings archive dates the second-quarter release to 2026-07-30.
Bullish and bearish views on Acadian Asset Management Inc.
The model's bull view on Acadian Asset Management Inc. (AAMI), in brief: Client inflows support the expansion. Acadian reported $25.7 billion of net client inflows for the first half ended 2026-06-30, including $4.3 billion in the second quarter, in its second-quarter financial disclosures. These are measured client flows, separate from the reported… The bear view: A disclosed block establishes supply. The Schedule 13D/A cited in the existing public record reported Paulson’s sale of 1,900,000 Acadian shares on 2026-06-17 and a remaining ownership interest of 16.4%. That filing establishes a historical distribution; it does not establish… Both cases follow in full.
Bull Case
- Client inflows support the expansion. Acadian reported $25.7 billion of net client inflows for the first half ended 2026-06-30, including $4.3 billion in the second quarter, in its second-quarter financial disclosures. These are measured client flows, separate from the reported 54% year-on-year increase in quarter-end AUM.
- Management fees explain the earnings step-up. Second-quarter 2026 management fees reached $176.5 million, up 44% year on year, while total revenue reached $185.1 million, up 45.3%, according to the second-quarter 10-Q. Continued fee growth is the operating thesis; a third-quarter management-fee result below $176.5 million would contradict its near-term continuation.
- Margins provide a measurable benchmark. The second-quarter earnings materials reported an ENI operating margin of 40.3% for 2026 versus 30.7% for 2025. Third-quarter fees and margins at least matching the second-quarter figures, alongside positive client flows, would confirm the published operating case.
Bear Case
- A disclosed block establishes supply. The Schedule 13D/A cited in the existing public record reported Paulson’s sale of 1,900,000 Acadian shares on 2026-06-17 and a remaining ownership interest of 16.4%. That filing establishes a historical distribution; it does not establish continued selling in September. A subsequent filing showing another reduction would substantiate renewed supply.
- An earnings comparison that mixes these measures would misstate the operating evidence.
- The analyst rating remains unchanged. Benzinga’s 2026-09-09 report paired Evercore ISI’s $98 price target with an unchanged In-Line rating. The revision is evidence of a higher analyst valuation, but contains no reported upgrade in the recommendation.
Setup & Price Structure
The split- and dividend-adjusted daily series records a $91.02 close on 2026-09-11, a $97.20 52-week high and a three-month price increase of 16.0%. The 14-day relative strength index was 47.0 on that date. These observations establish the distance below the high and the preceding advance; they do not establish a rising moving average or a completed base.
The $84 threshold remains the research invalidation level published on 2026-09-05. It is an analytical boundary, not a newly verified support shelf. A weekly close above the adjusted $97.20 high would contradict the present description of price remaining below its prior peak; a weekly close below $84 would end the continuation thesis.
The September 9 analyst report and June 17 ownership filing provide observable coverage and supply evidence. No retail-participation series, current short-interest measure or moving-average distance is available in this record. The sample is too small to support a crowding claim.
Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)
No confirmed company results date was identified for 2026-09-13 through 2026-10-13 in the company’s published release calendar. The September 11 ex-dividend date has elapsed.
- 2026-09-30 — Third-quarter accounting period ends. This is the next AUM measurement checkpoint against the $232.7 billion reported at 2026-06-30; it is not an announced same-day disclosure. The quarter-end observation alone will not resolve client flows or fee revenue.
- ~2026-10-29, est. Third-quarter results. The date remains unconfirmed and falls outside the next 30 days. This is the later event on which the thesis turns: reported client flows, management fees and ENI operating margin will test the second-quarter operating benchmarks.
What Would Change Our Mind
Loss of the published continuation boundary would break the price case: a weekly close below $84 invalidates it. Independently, negative third-quarter net client cash flows would contradict the organic-growth leg after the $4.3 billion inflow reported for the quarter ended 2026-06-30.
The operating case would be confirmed by positive third-quarter net client flows together with management fees of at least $176.5 million and an ENI operating margin of at least 40.3%, before the price invalidation occurs. Those thresholds are the reported second-quarter 2026 results, not consensus estimates; third-quarter consensus figures are unavailable in this record.
Correlation Notes
This is a single-company asset-management thesis. The quarter ended 2026-06-30 combined $232.7 billion of AUM with $176.5 million of management fees, providing the economic link between managed assets and revenue. Equity-market weakness could pressure that relationship; lower third-quarter AUM together with management fees below $176.5 million would substantiate that risk.
No return-correlation series is available as of 2026-09-11, so a numerical relationship with global equities, emerging markets or other asset managers cannot be stated. The company’s second-quarter inflow disclosure supports analysis of its own franchise; it does not establish a broader sector move.
Notes
- Acadian is the single remaining operating affiliate of the former BrightSphere holdco; pre-rename price and filing history sits under the BSIG ticker.
- ENI (economic net income) is non-GAAP: Q2 2026 ENI diluted EPS $1.33 vs GAAP diluted EPS $0.76 — check which one a quoted multiple uses.
- 35.49M shares outstanding as of 2026-08-04 with a 16.4% holder; block prints move this tape more than the market cap implies.
- $200M term loan matures October 2028; $172.5M of the credit facility was unused at the Q2 2026 10-Q.
- Fee revenue is market-linked — quarter-end index levels set billable AUM, so results lag equity drawdowns by about one reporting cycle.
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