CRWD · CrowdStrike Holdings
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $268.02
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
15.5% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $268.02, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 5.9% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $268.02, the highest close of the 20 sessions to 27 October 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. Q3 FY2027 results on 1 December 2026 that raise the 34% full-year net new ARR growth guide would also prove the call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 31 July 2026, filed 27 August 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 1,471
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +25.8
- Gross margin (%)
- 74.6
- Operating margin (%)
- −2.3
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 1,609
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 4,268
- Price to earnings (×)
- 3969.1
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 42.2
All filed numbers
What CrowdStrike Holdings reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 1,471 | +25.8 | 74.6 | −2.3 |
| first filed | 1,386 | +25.6 | 75.3 | −2.2 |
| first filed | 1,305 | +23.3 | 76.1 | 1.1 |
| first filed | 1,234 | +22.2 | 75.1 | −5.6 |
| first filed restated | 1,169 | +21.3 | 73.6 | −9.0 |
| first filed restated | 1,103 | +19.8 | 73.9 | −10.8 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 3.9 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 58.5 | 5.3 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 31 July 2025 | +4.5 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 2,017 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 408 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 1,609 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 5,014 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt | 746 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 4,268 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +26.3% on a year | 4,842 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) +48.6% on a year | 10,700 |
| Receivables ($M) | 1,039 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 5,102 |
| Market value ($M) | 232,034 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 227,766 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 42.2 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | 3969.1 |
| Price to book value (×) | 45.5 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 0.7 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 2.4% of shares outstanding sold short, 3.2 days of average trading to cover, −8.3% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $462.9M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $812.5Mand 1 trade without a stated price |
The thesis
CrowdStrike's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. The price already assumes another quarter of fast growth, and the third-quarter report on 1 December 2026 decides whether the company delivers it. TIKR put the shares at about 156 times forward earnings on 5 November 2026, against a five-year average of 113 times.
The report turns on net new annual recurring revenue (ARR), meaning the subscription revenue added in the quarter. The company guided it to $343 million–$347 million for the quarter ended 31 October 2026. To support this multiple, the 34% full-year net new ARR growth guide set on 26 August 2026 also needs to rise. CrowdStrike confirmed on 4 November 2026 that it reports after the US market close on 1 December 2026.
The shares fell from $241.00 on 4 November 2026 to $217.20 on 5 November 2026. Yahoo Finance tied the drop to a sell-off in software's AI winners, and Benzinga tied it to fears of stricter AI regulation after the midterm elections. The shares have recovered only part of that fall, closing at $229.06 on 11 November 2026. The rating is Low because the valuation leaves little room for error, analyst targets are now spread from Bernstein's $177 to UBS's $310, and the CEO has kept selling into the decline.
Bullish and bearish views on CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.
The bull case on CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD), in brief: a record quarter is on file. The bear case: the multiple remains above its history.
Bull case
- A record quarter is on file. The Q2 FY2027 release of 26 August 2026 reported net new ARR of $332.8 million, up 51% year over year, and ending ARR of $5.84 billion, up 25%.
- Guidance rose with that quarter. On 26 August 2026 the company raised its FY2027 net new ARR growth guide to 34% at the midpoint. It guided full-year revenue to $5.991 billion–$6.011 billion.
- Most large brokers sit above the price. Beinsure listed targets of $310 at UBS, $300 at Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo, $295 at Citigroup and $290 at Bank of America on 6 November 2026, with an average of $248.45. Deutsche Bank's Brad Zelnick upgraded the shares from Hold on 2 November 2026 and cited a "tsunami of cyber demand", 24/7 Wall St. reported.
- Two deals widen the AI-agent product. CrowdStrike agreed on 3 November 2026 to buy Fiddler AI and Dreadnode, covering agent monitoring and automated AI security testing. TIKR put the combined price at about $495 million.
- New regions and partners keep arriving. The company launched a sovereign cloud deployment in Saudi Arabia with in-country data residency on 4 November 2026. Company news from 2 November to 4 November 2026 also covered a wider CoreWeave partnership and Dell and AWS integrations.
Bear case
- The multiple remains above its history. TIKR put the shares at about 156 times forward earnings on 5 November 2026, against a five-year average of 113 times. TIKR also reported that consensus earnings per share estimates for the next three fiscal years rose 5% at most over the prior year.
- One broker's target sits far below the price. Bernstein kept a Market Perform rating on 9 November 2026 and raised its target to $177 from $132. That target sits about a fifth below the 11 November 2026 close. Jefferies' target was $240 and Morgan Stanley's $254 on Beinsure's 6 November 2026 list.
- Peers are judged on growth. Fortinet fell 26% on 29 October 2026 despite an earnings beat, Benzinga reported, because growth slowed and service revenue guidance came in lower. CrowdStrike's report faces the same test.
- Politics now weigh on AI-linked software. Benzinga reported on 5 November 2026 that the Cybersecurity group slid on fears of stricter AI rules. Dan Ives of Yorkville Ives said on 4 November 2026 that the Democratic midterm sweep will slow the AI buildout.
- Insiders sold through the decline. SEC Form 4 filings show CEO George Kurtz sold 20,000 shares at an average $222.35 from 6 November to 9 November 2026, after sales averaging $255.10 on 29 October to 30 October 2026. Chief Financial Officer Burt Podbere sold 7,710 shares at an average $252.07 on 2 November 2026, a sale his Form 4 does not mark as part of a Rule 10b5-1 plan.
Price setup
The shares closed at $229.06 on 11 November 2026, 20.2% below the 52-week intraday high of $286.99 set on 6 October 2026. The lowest close since the 5 November 2026 drop was $216.90 on 6 November 2026. The shares then closed at $228.58 on 9 November 2026 and $225.76 on 10 November 2026.
As of 11 November 2026 the price sits below the 50-day moving average of $244.16 and well above the 200-day moving average of $171.91 (adjusted daily closes). The gap to the 200-day reflects the 2026 run from the 52-week closing low of $87.56 on 24 February 2026. Over three months the shares are up 1.6%, against a close of $225.53 on 13 August 2026.
A return above the 50-day moving average before the 1 December 2026 report would show the market looking past the November drop. Closes that stay below it would match the lag call. TIKR's valuation figure answers what the price already reflects: about 156 times forward earnings on 5 November 2026, so a quarter that only meets guidance leaves the multiple without support.
Catalysts ahead
- 18 November 2026: Palo Alto Networks fiscal first-quarter 2027 results, a date the company announced on 3 November 2026. It is the next large security vendor to report. It shows whether the market rewards or punishes growth in the group before CrowdStrike reports.
- 1 December 2026: CrowdStrike Q3 FY2027 results after the US market close, a date the company announced on 4 November 2026. It shows whether net new annual recurring revenue clears the $343 million–$347 million guide and whether the 34% full-year growth guide rises, the result the valuation already assumes.
What would change the view
A daily close above $268.02, the highest close of the 20 sessions to 27 October 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. Q3 FY2027 results on 1 December 2026 that raise the 34% full-year net new ARR growth guide would also prove the call wrong.
What it trades with
The shares trade with the security group and the AI trade. On 5 November 2026 Yahoo Finance reported CrowdStrike down about 9.9%, Palo Alto Networks down 9.6% and Cloudflare down 8.3%. On 2 November 2026, 24/7 Wall St. showed CrowdStrike and Fortinet each down 3% and Palo Alto down 2%, even with the Deutsche Bank upgrade that day. Palo Alto Networks' report on 18 November 2026 is the next group test before CrowdStrike reports. A CrowdStrike gain on a day the group falls would show that link loosening.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- CrowdStrike shares fell about 9.9% as software's AI winners sold off; Palo Alto Networks fell 9.6% and Cloudflare 8.3% the same day. Yahoo Finance, 'Palantir and CrowdStrike stocks tumble as Wall Street dumps software's AI winners' · as of
- CrowdStrike traded at about 156 times forward earnings against a five-year average of 113 times. TIKR, 'CrowdStrike Sinks 9%, Palo Alto Down 8%, Cloudflare Down 9% as AI Trade Unwinds' · as of
- Q2 FY2027 net new annual recurring revenue was $332.8 million, up 51% year over year; ending ARR was $5.84 billion, up 25%. CrowdStrike Q2 FY2027 results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- The company guided FY2027 revenue to $5.991 billion–$6.011 billion and raised full-year net new ARR growth guidance to 34% at the midpoint. CrowdStrike Q2 FY2027 results, Form 8-K exhibit 99.1 · as of
- CrowdStrike set its Q3 FY2027 results for release after the US market close on 1 December 2026, with a call at 5:00 p.m. Eastern. CrowdStrike press release, 4 November 2026 · as of
- Bernstein kept a Market Perform rating on CrowdStrike and raised its price target to $177 from $132. Benzinga analyst ratings, 9 November 2026 · as of
- Analyst targets listed: UBS $310, Deutsche Bank and Wells Fargo $300, Citigroup $295, Bank of America $290, Mizuho $275, Morgan Stanley $254, Jefferies $240; average $248.45. Beinsure, 'CrowdStrike stock price forecast: Investment banks see upside after 10% selloff' · as of
- CEO George Kurtz sold 20,000 shares at $216.68–$230.97 (average $222.35) from 6 November to 9 November 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. SEC Form 4 filed 10 November 2026 · as of
Sources
- CrowdStrike Sinks 9%, Palo Alto Down 8%, Cloudflare Down 9% as AI Trade Unwinds · tikr.com ·
- CrowdStrike Announces Date of Fiscal Third Quarter 2027 Financial Results Conference Call · ir.crowdstrike.com
- CrowdStrike (NASDAQ: CRWD) stock price forecast: Investment banks see upside after 10% selloff · beinsure.com ·
- Palantir and CrowdStrike stocks tumble as Wall Street dumps software's AI winners · finance.yahoo.com
- CrowdStrike Stock Plummets on AI Regulation Fears · benzinga.com
- CrowdStrike Slides 3% Despite Deutsche Bank Upgrade and CoreWeave Deal; Fortinet Falls 3%, Palo Alto Drops 2% · 247wallst.com ·
- Finviz
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