Stocks · Theme
Bank, insurance & capital markets stocks · 30 research notes
30 Banks, insurers & capital markets stocks moving on the same story, each with a dated research note: thesis, kill line and next catalyst.
Active themeTracked as of 11 November 2026.
All 30 have a dated research note with a published kill line: the note's own test, stated in advance, of what would prove it wrong: a price level, a business fact, or both.
All stocksPLMRPalomar HoldingsMedium Palomar Holdings is more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months because estimates keep rising after its fourth 2026 guidance raise, to $280–285 million of adjusted net income. The fourth-quarter report, expected around…AAMIAcadian Asset ManagementMedium Acadian Asset Management's eleven straight quarters of client inflows, record fees and resumed buybacks give its shares a modest edge over the S&P 500. The fourth-quarter report, expected in late January 2027, shows whether flows stay…CCitigroupMedium Citigroup is modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months: its returns beat its 11% target while the shares fell 10.5% on market-wide selling. The mid-January 2027 fourth-quarter report shows whether returns and buybacks hold.HIPOHippo HoldingsMedium Hippo Holdings has modestly better-than-even odds of beating the S&P 500 after it raised 2026 profit guidance on 29 October 2026 on a falling expense ratio. Fourth-quarter underwriting against its 97–98% combined ratio guidance settles the…MSMorgan StanleyMedium Morgan Stanley's shares have modestly better than even odds of beating the S&P 500, carried by its co-lead role on Anthropic's IPO and record wealth flows. The IPO pricing, reported for 18 November 2026, and the fourth-quarter report,…PRCHPorch GroupMedium Porch Group's insurance fees beat in Q3 2026 and lifted 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $135-140M, and the shares hit a 52-week high on 10 November 2026 despite CEO stock sales. Year-end Reciprocal surplus and the Q4 report around…SLDESlide Insurance HoldingsMedium Slide Insurance is earning well ahead of plan on Florida homeowners policies and paying a $1.50 special dividend after raising 2026 net income guidance to $500–520 million. The fourth-quarter report, estimated around 25 February 2027,…TWTradeweb MarketsMedium Tradeweb Markets' 26.3% October volume growth points to fourth-quarter revenue growth above the third quarter's 14.9%. The November volume report around 4 December 2026 and fourth-quarter results show whether revenue keeps pace as credit…BACBank of AmericaLow Bank of America's shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 as weak fees and trading, a $1.2 billion penalty and falling broker targets outweigh 8% lending-income growth; the 15 January 2027 fourth-quarter report shows whether fees…BRK.BBerkshire HathawayLow Berkshire Hathaway's class B shares look more likely to lag than lead the S&P 500: third-quarter operating earnings fell 5.8% while the shares hit a record $589.83, far above the $496–$507 Berkshire paid for buybacks. Whether repurchases…GSGoldman Sachs GroupLow Goldman Sachs' shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months: the Anthropic IPO it co-leads is largely priced in, while Fed rate-increase risk and a smaller fee backlog weigh on 2027 fees. The fourth-quarter report,…JPMJPMorgan ChaseLow JPMorgan Chase's shares look more likely to trail the S&P 500 over three months after a third-quarter miss, a roughly 90% buyback cut and a reported Senate Epstein review; the 9 December 2026 CFO update and 14 January 2027 report decide it.KMPRKemperLow Kemper Corporation's third-quarter 2026 profit came with a personal auto book down about 10% in the quarter and an underlying combined ratio still above 100%. After a 30.7% three-month rise, the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500…LMNDLemonadeLow Lemonade's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 as a 65% loss ratio and a new S-3 registration offset its Q4 2026 profit target; the 17 November 2026 investor day and Q4 results settle it.TRUPTrupanionLow Trupanion's third-quarter beat is already in its share price, so the pet insurer's stock looks more likely to lag the S&P 500: the post-report gain faded by 10 November 2026 and new Stifel and Cantor targets sit at or below the price. The…WFCWells FargoLow Wells Fargo's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it because third-quarter fees fell and credit costs rose while guidance was only held. The 14 January 2027 fourth-quarter report settles it by showing whether net interest…AMPAmeriprise FinancialMedium Ameriprise Financial is modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months: third-quarter earnings rose 21.7% and Huntington's advisors arrive in the fourth quarter. The fourth-quarter report, expected around 28 January 2027, tests…CMECME GroupMedium CME Group is more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months: record October volume of 30 million contracts a day followed record third-quarter revenue. The November volume release, expected around 2 December 2026, shows whether activity…FBIZFirst Business Financial ServicesMedium First Business Financial Services is modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months on a 3.80% third-quarter margin and record earnings; fourth-quarter results in late January 2027 show if the margin and credit hold.GCMGGCM GrosvenorMedium GCM Grosvenor is modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months: third-quarter fee-related earnings rose 15% and fundraising reached $2.7 billion. The fourth-quarter report, expected around February 2027, shows whether 2026…NPNeptune Insurance HoldingsMedium Neptune Insurance Holdings is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months: third-quarter revenue grew 34.3% against a guide of about 17% for 2027, though executives keep selling. The fourth-quarter report, expected…OWLBlue Owl CapitalMedium Blue Owl Capital's fee earnings grew through the private-credit withdrawal stress, so the shares are modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months; the fourth-quarter report, expected in early February 2027, settles whether…ARESAres ManagementLow Ares Management's fee earnings still rise, but the 29 October 2026 report slowed fee growth and trimmed three 2026 targets, so the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 until fourth-quarter fundraising and deployment arrive.GSHDGoosehead InsuranceLow Goosehead Insurance shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: the company expects to report material weaknesses, its restated financials and third-quarter 10-Q are unfiled, and the amended filings settle the case.HGTYHagertyLow Hagerty's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months because its majority holder sold 11.5 million shares in the November 2026 offering, its second sale in two months, after a raised 2026 outlook; the fourth-quarter…IBKRInteractive Brokers GroupLow Interactive Brokers' shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: October trading was 4% below a year earlier and client equity fell 4% from September. The November metrics, due around 1 December 2026, show whether both…LNCLincoln NationalLow Lincoln National Corporation's capital is improving but earnings are not: third-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.72 a share missed the $1.96 consensus, so the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500. The fourth-quarter report settles it.MRXMarex GroupLow Marex Group's profit is growing fast, but the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500: the Q3 margin slipped to 23.7% and net interest income fell. The fourth-quarter report, estimated for early 2027, settles whether both turn up.SKWDSkyward Specialty Insurance GroupLow Skyward Specialty Insurance Group is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: the third-quarter combined ratio of 89.9% held, but premium growth is slowing and property pricing is falling. The 2027 guidance with fourth-quarter…WTWisdomTreeLow WisdomTree's assets fell to $166.85 billion in October despite $1.65 billion of client inflows, so the shares, rebounding to $21.44 on 11 November 2026, are more likely to lag the S&P 500; the November asset report and fourth-quarter…