Filtered library · Conviction
HIGH conviction · 28 dossiers
Every dossier the model currently rates HIGH conviction — 28 names, with thesis, invalidation trigger, archetype and catalyst.
All 28 are dated research with a published kill line — the level named in advance that would prove the call wrong.
All dossiers HPE Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company fresh HIGH Hewlett Packard Enterprise's AI and networking earnings transition supports a repricing thesis that requires intact growth guidance and the first weekly close above $54.44 after the 2026-09-30 Investor Day. A weekly close below $50… ATKR Atkore Inc. fresh HIGH Atkore's $95.00 cash-merger thesis now turns on the October 7 shareholder vote and remaining approvals after September 14 US antitrust clearance. Completion before a weekly close below $88 constitutes success; termination negates the case. BWMN Bowman Consulting Group Ltd. HIGH Bowman Consulting Group’s $43.00 cash acquisition makes merger completion the central thesis. The case resolves with payment of the announced consideration before a daily close below $40.50; the 2026-09-13 go-shop deadline narrows… CBZ CBIZ, Inc. fresh HIGH CBIZ’s signed $55.00 cash merger makes completion the central thesis; closing settles the case, while a daily close below $52 invalidates it. The expected 2026-09-10 antitrust milestone has elapsed, but its outcome and a shareholder-vote… CLSK CleanSpark, Inc. fresh HIGH Spring's binary resolved bullish: CleanSpark signed a $6.6B, 20-year Georgia data-center lease (2026-07-14) with an unnamed "global technology company," converting the BTC-miner-to-AI-infrastructure pivot from speculation into contracted… HZO MarineMax, Inc. HIGH MarineMax’s $53.00-per-share cash merger prices completion of the Safe Harbor transaction on the announced end-2026 timetable. Closing would settle the case; a weekly close below $50, termination or failure to complete by 2026-12-31 would… ITGR Integer Holdings Corporation HIGH Integer Holdings Corporation’s $127.00 cash acquisition by KKR remains a completion thesis, strengthened by the 2026-09-03 merger proxy. Completion by year-end 2026 would settle the case; a daily close below $118 invalidates it. LPG Dorian Lpg Ltd HIGH Dorian LPG’s contracted freight surge supports September-quarter TCE above June’s record $75,926 per available day. Reported results settle the case; a weekly close below $47 invalidates the equity thesis first. PSNL Personalis, Inc. fresh HIGH The MRD story has been overtaken by a live sale process: StreetInsider reported 2026-07-17 that Personalis retained Centerview, TD Securities and Cooley after takeover interest from Merck (already a >10% holder and 19% of Q1 revenue) plus… RVMD Revolution Medicines, Inc. fresh HIGH Regulatory-clock narrative re-accelerating: the rolling NDA under the FDA National Priority Voucher is "nearing completion" (2026-07-07) and the EMA opened a phased CHMP review the same day, while the Street ceiling walked from ~$186 to… VREX Varex Imaging Corporation HIGH Varex Imaging Corporation’s $18.90 cash acquisition by Teledyne remains a completion thesis. The 2026-09-08 preliminary proxy advances the process; payment resolves the case, while a daily close below $17.50 invalidates it. PANW Palo Alto Networks, Inc. fresh HIGH AI-security spend narrative accelerating with third-party confirmation: IBM missed Q2 ($17.2B vs $17.86B) on 2026-07-14 and blamed budget migration into Cybersecurity — PANW +6.4%, CRWD +10%, BUG +6% same session. New ATH close $357.53… SNOW Snowflake Inc. fresh HIGH The June digestion resolved upward, not downward — SNOW cleared the ~$244 June high and printed a fresh 52-week high at $284.99 before settling at $268.90 (2026-07-17). Q1 FY27 product revenue re-accelerated to +34% and the street is still… AOUT American Outdoor Brands, Inc. fresh HIGH American Outdoor Brands’ margin recovery supports an earnings-driven rerating toward Roth Capital’s $17 target dated 2026-09-04. A daily close at or above $17 would confirm that price leg; a weekly close below the $14.19 earnings-reaction… ARX Accelerant Holdings HIGH Accelerant Holdings’ $20.25 cash acquisition by Thoma Bravo remains a completion thesis, with closing guided to the first half of 2027. Completion settles the case; a daily close below $18.25 or deal termination invalidates it. ELE Elemental Royalty Corporation HIGH Elemental Royalty Corporation’s royalty-growth case turns on completing Vizsla by 2026-09-30 with GEO guidance intact. The 2026-09-08 Mexican clearance advances that case; a weekly close below $19.00 or a missed closing window invalidates… ESPR Esperion Therapeutics, Inc. HIGH Esperion Therapeutics’ cash-merger thesis was settled by the 2026-07-13 acquisition; only conditional commercial milestones remain. The common stock ceased trading, so the historical price invalidation no longer provides a prospective test. GBTG Global Business Travel Group, Inc. fresh HIGH Global Business Travel Group’s $9.50-per-share Long Lake cash acquisition remains the thesis: completion settles the case, while a daily close below $9.00 invalidates it. Shareholders approved the merger on 2026-08-03, but the verified… MKTX MarketAxess Holdings, Inc. HIGH MarketAxess’s $167-per-share cash acquisition by Intercontinental Exchange remains a completion story. Completion before a daily close below $155 would validate the case; the September 25, 2026 antitrust milestone is the next dated test. MRX Marex Group plc fresh HIGH Roll-up compounder in clean momentum continuation: the sell-side is now chasing price, with KBW $80, Barclays $76 and Piper $75 targets (Jul 9-15) leapfrogging the old $60 consensus, while the Bright Point clearing bolt-on (2026-07-09)… OGN Organon & Co. fresh HIGH Organon & Co.’s $14.00-per-share cash acquisition by Sun Pharma remains a completion thesis. Payment of the agreed consideration before a daily close below $13.00 would settle the case; the 2026-07-23 shareholder approval leaves regulatory… PAYO Payoneer Global Inc. fresh HIGH Payoneer Global's $7.40-per-share cash acquisition now hinges on regulatory clearance and completion after September 14 shareholder approval. Payment before a daily close below $6.75 would resolve the thesis favorably; the vote alone does… RAMP LiveRamp Holdings, Inc. fresh HIGH LiveRamp’s $38.50-per-share cash acquisition by Publicis remains a regulatory-completion thesis. Publicis reaffirmed year-end completion on 2026-09-16; closing by 2026-12-31 confirms the case, while a daily close below $35, termination or… SAFT Safety Insurance Group, Inc. fresh HIGH Safety Insurance Group’s $105.00 cash-merger completion case now has HSR clearance and a 2026-11-03 shareholder vote. Completion requires the remaining approvals, while a daily close below $99 invalidates the price-convergence thesis. SHIP Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp. HIGH Seanergy Maritime’s freight upside rests on Q3 daily vessel earnings exceeding its 2026-07-30 estimate of approximately $30,998 while the dividend holds at $0.35 per share. The Q3 report tests that case; a weekly close below $15.50… SMTI Sanara MedTech Inc. HIGH Sanara MedTech's cash-and-stock acquisition by MIMEDX now has a 2026-09-30 shareholder vote; completion by year-end would settle the merger thesis. A daily close below $32.50 or failure to complete by 2026-12-31 invalidates that case. TECH Bio-Techne Corp fresh HIGH Bio-Techne’s $73.00 cash acquisition by Merck KGaA remains a completion thesis, with the shareholder vote scheduled for 2026-09-23. The case resolves through payment after required approvals and is invalidated by a daily close below $70;… UTZ Utz Brands, Inc. HIGH Utz Brands’ $14.25 cash-acquisition story turns on completion in the company-guided fourth quarter of 2026. Closing fulfills the case; a daily close below $13.50 or failure to complete by 2026-12-31 invalidates it, while the September 11…