Filtered library · Archetype
Compounder · 139 dossiers
Dossiers classified as Compounder — 139 names, each with its thesis, invalidation trigger and catalyst calendar.
All 139 are dated research with a published kill line — the level named in advance that would prove the call wrong.
All dossiers RXO RXO, Inc. fresh MEDIUM Freight-cycle recovery intact; sell-side has fully caught up into a $20–35 battleground — bears $20 (Goldman 07-16, Susquehanna 07-14), bulls $30–35 (BMO $35 initiation 07-14, Stifel/Truist/Citi $30). Narrative matured from mispriced to… DAVE Dave Inc. fresh LOW Dave Inc.'s growth-and-credit-quality recovery case is invalidated by the September 18, 2026 weekly close of $337.82 below its published $358 boundary. JPMorgan's September 15 initiation adds favorable coverage but does not reverse that… HNGE Hinge Health, Inc. fresh LOW Digital-MSK profitability re-rate broke out in May and was pushed into open price discovery by the 2026-06-09 mid-quarter raise (Q2 to $200–202M, +45%; FY26 to $818–824M). But nine sell-side target hikes in two weeks plus accelerating… HUM Humana Inc. fresh LOW Humana's Medicare Advantage margin-recovery story faces a renewed price test: an adjusted daily close above $409.80 before a daily close below $383. The September 1, 2026 earnings reaffirmation supports stability, while October Star… JBHT J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. fresh LOW J.B. Hunt’s freight-recovery thesis was invalidated by the 2026-09-18 weekly close below $265. The estimated 2026-10-15 report tests whether intermodal pricing and profit growth can support a separate recovery case after September’s cost… SEZL Sezzle Inc. fresh LOW Sezzle's profitable-growth recovery thesis requires a daily close above $129.87 before a weekly close below $114 invalidates it. The 2026-09-18 adjusted close of $116.55 lost the August shelf again, reversing the intermediate repair… XPO XPO, Inc. fresh LOW XPO, Inc.'s shipment-and-margin thesis failed its price test when the 2026-09-18 weekly close of $174.25 breached $185. The 2026-10-29 results still test shipment growth and management's guidance for an adjusted less-than-truckload… LPG Dorian Lpg Ltd HIGH Dorian LPG’s contracted freight surge supports September-quarter TCE above June’s record $75,926 per available day. Reported results settle the case; a weekly close below $47 invalidates the equity thesis first. RVMD Revolution Medicines, Inc. fresh HIGH Regulatory-clock narrative re-accelerating: the rolling NDA under the FDA National Priority Voucher is "nearing completion" (2026-07-07) and the EMA opened a phased CHMP review the same day, while the Street ceiling walked from ~$186 to… AGCO AGCO Corporation MEDIUM AGCO Corporation's valuation reflects a 2027 farm-equipment recovery that remains unconfirmed by reported demand. A weekly close above the $139.71 market high recorded as of 2026-09-04 and Q3 results meeting July guidance would confirm the… ASST Strive, Inc. MEDIUM Strive, Inc.'s bitcoin-treasury premium thesis depends on increasing bitcoin per diluted common share. A company-reported year-to-date Bitcoin Yield above the 40.8% reading dated 2026-08-28 would confirm the case before a weekly close… ATRC AtriCure, Inc. fresh MEDIUM AtriCure’s profitability and clinical-expansion story now has to sustain its re-rating after September 21 index inclusion. A weekly close at or above Needham’s $64 target would complete the price case; a weekly close below $47 would… BWLP BW LPG Limited fresh MEDIUM BW LPG Limited’s contracted freight earnings support dividend continuation; its 2026-11-24 report must show Q3 realised shipping TCE above Q2’s $74,000 per day and a dividend of at least $0.95 per share. A weekly close below $22.00… CNH CNH INDUSTRIAL N.V. MEDIUM CNH Industrial's farm-equipment recovery is being priced ahead of earnings after September's analyst upgrades. The next quarterly report tests margin recovery, while a weekly close below $12.50 invalidates the re-rating leg. COIN Coinbase Global, Inc. fresh MEDIUM Coinbase’s recovery now rests on agency-led crypto market access after the Senate setback. Confirmation requires a weekly close above the historical $196.07 reference and third-quarter subscription-and-services revenue within the published… CRWD CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. fresh MEDIUM Fal.Con (2026-08-31 to 09-03) delivered real product — Falcon Guardian, Falcon IQ, GPT-5.6 Cyber in Falcon, Anthropic marketplace distribution — and nine broker actions through 2026-09-04 including Truist $300, yet CRWD closed $213.10 on… CRWV CoreWeave, Inc. fresh MEDIUM Post-print repricing is holding but fading: the 2026-08-12 gap to $107.73 is unfilled after closes of $106.29 and $105.26, RSI 71.1. Q2 printed $128M adjusted operating income against a $30–90M guide, and the $2.6B facility closed… CVI CVR ENERGY, INC. MEDIUM CVR Energy’s refining thesis is that Hormuz disruption lifts reported margins above second-quarter 2026’s $9.94 per throughput barrel. Third-quarter results test that inference; a weekly close below $39 invalidates the price structure. CXW CoreCivic, Inc. MEDIUM CoreCivic's facility sales support a real-estate monetization thesis; another completed sale by third-quarter results must confirm its next leg while operating contracts remain intact. A weekly close below $31 invalidates the price thesis. DINO HF Sinclair Corporation MEDIUM HF Sinclair’s refining-margin and separation story now has fresh UBS support. The case requires the next quarterly report to sustain second-quarter adjusted refinery gross margin of $25.95 per produced barrel sold on comparable throughput,… DK Delek US Holdings, Inc. MEDIUM Delek US's refining recovery supports the August breakout, but September's distillate build weakens the scarcity leg. Q3 throughput and expense delivery must confirm the earnings case before a weekly close below $64 invalidates the… EGO Eldorado Gold Corporation MEDIUM Eldorado Gold’s Skouries expansion thesis now hinges on fourth-quarter 2026 commercial production after first concentrate on September 8. Delivery before a weekly close below $40 would validate the case; a delay into 2027 would contradict… FSM Fortuna Mining Corp. MEDIUM Fortuna Mining’s gold-supported cash generation funds its mine-growth story, but the September 11 retreat weakens the recovery case. A weekly close above $13.66 before a weekly close below $11.00 would confirm the equity thesis. GEO The GEO Group, Inc. MEDIUM The GEO Group’s detention-contract story depends on year-end 2026 activation, with normalized earnings expected in early 2027. A weekly close above $32.77 would confirm the price leg; a weekly close below $28 or a disclosed activation… HOOD Robinhood Markets, Inc. MEDIUM Robinhood Markets' September repricing now includes prediction-market infrastructure alongside on-chain finance. Stronger August activity and a weekly close above $124.72 would confirm continuation; a weekly close below $107 would… HTFL Heartflow, Inc. MEDIUM Heartflow’s diagnostic revenue growth supports a continuation thesis after its August guidance increase. A weekly close above the $50.43 reference high would confirm the price leg before a weekly close below $42 invalidates it; the next… IAG IAMGold Corporation MEDIUM IAMGOLD’s margin-expansion case depends on Côté lowering costs as gold support weakens. Q3 all-in sustaining costs within the published $2,000–$2,150 per-ounce range and retained annual production guidance would confirm the case before a… IOVA Iovance Biotherapeutics, Inc. fresh MEDIUM Iovance Biotherapeutics' Amtagvi ramp supports a higher 2026 revenue outlook; a company-issued range above $350–370 million by 2026-09-30 would confirm it. An unchanged range or a missed update deadline would invalidate the revision thesis. KARO Karooooo Ltd. fresh MEDIUM Karooooo's record subscriber additions support a continuation thesis, resolved by a weekly close above $68.71 before a weekly close below $62. The next quarterly report tests whether the July-reported subscriber momentum persists. META Meta Platforms, Inc. MEDIUM Meta Platforms’ AI monetisation story gained a consumer product with Muse’s 2026-09-08 launch. Disclosed external AI revenue or contract value by the 2026-10-28 results would validate the commercial leg; a weekly close below $545 would… OMER Omeros Corporation MEDIUM Omeros Corporation’s YARTEMLEA launch supports a further re-rating if Q3 2026 net sales exceed Q2’s $28.5 million before a weekly close below $16.00. The 2026-10-01 hospital reimbursement change adds a later adoption test; it cannot… PBF PBF ENERGY INC. MEDIUM PBF Energy’s new high prices in sustained refining profits; Q3 adjusted earnings of at least $6.22 per share would confirm the case unless a weekly close below $75.48 first breaks the breakout. PSX Phillips 66 MEDIUM Phillips 66’s repricing depends on exceptional refining margins persisting into Q3 2026. The case plays out if Q3 realized refining margin reaches at least Q2’s $24.08 per barrel before a weekly close below $239 invalidates it. SPCX SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) MEDIUM SpaceX’s compute expansion now has a price breakout behind it; September capacity delivery and the December contract start test revenue conversion. A weekly close below $146.15 invalidates the breakout thesis. SSL Sasol Limited MEDIUM Sasol Limited’s operating recovery supports price continuation after its 2026-09-01 results. A weekly close above the $14.65 annual high recorded on 2026-09-11 completes the case; a weekly close below that day’s $14.59 reference close… SSRM SSR Mining Inc. MEDIUM SSR Mining’s post-divestiture re-rating rests on cash and repurchases, with weaker momentum after the 2026-09-04 jobs report. A weekly close above the $39.21 market high would confirm the case before a weekly close below $33 invalidates it. TARS Tarsus Pharmaceuticals, Inc. MEDIUM Tarsus Pharmaceuticals’ eye-care expansion depends on XDEMVY sustaining growth after the Alkeus acquisition. The case requires next-quarter sales above Q2 2026’s $173.9 million and retention or an increase of both boundaries of the… VLO Valero Energy Corporation MEDIUM Refiner crack spreads at a record ~$70/bbl 3-2-1 as a Hormuz/Iran supply shock idles ~10% of global refining; VLO is the pure-play margin leverage and the fundamental leg is accelerating. But sell-side (6 PT raises in 11 days) and CNBC… AMR Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. LOW Alpha Metallurgical Resources’ coal-supply-shock thesis requires stronger third-quarter realized pricing before August support breaks. Realization above the second quarter’s $118.71 per short ton would confirm transmission; a weekly close… BMNR BitMine Immersion Technologies, Inc. LOW Premium-to-NAV funding engine is closed; the 2026-08-10 release shows capital flipping from coin to float — 7,391 ETH bought for $14.3M (smallest week of 2026) against 3.0M shares retired, with cash down to $104M from $173M. The narrative… BTCS BTCS Inc. LOW BTCS Inc.’s Ethereum recovery thesis requires stronger DeFi earnings without renewed borrowing. The next Q3 disclosure must show gross profit above Q2 2026’s $1.5 million and debt no higher than June’s $50.4 million before a weekly close… CDE Coeur Mining, Inc. fresh LOW Coeur Mining’s cash-backed repair thesis requires price recovery and confirmation that reduced production guidance holds. A weekly close above the September $21.24 reference and reaffirmed guidance at the next quarterly report would… DHT DHT HOLDINGS, INC. LOW DHT Holdings’ tanker-rate story depends on strong charter bookings sustaining its September 11 high through the next results. Confirmation requires reported earnings to meet the disclosed booking benchmark and the release week to close… FRO Frontline Plc LOW Frontline's tanker-rate boom supports an earnings-persistence thesis, conditional on retaining the September high. The 2026-11-30 results test whether third-quarter vessel earnings sustain the second-quarter benchmark before a weekly close… HAFN Hafnia Limited LOW Hafnia Limited’s tanker-earnings surge supports a continuation case at its 2026-09-11 high. The 2026-11-18 results test earnings durability, while a weekly close below $9.38 invalidates the price thesis. MPC Marathon Petroleum Corporation LOW Record refining cracks are already in the tape: Q2 R&M margin $36.33/bbl vs $17.58 YoY and a 29% EPS beat on 2026-08-04, yet the stock closed 2026-08-07 at $298.20 — RSI 37.3, 6.7% under the $319.76 high — while six desks raised targets… MSTR Strategy Inc LOW Strategy Inc.'s bitcoin accumulation thesis needs successive purchase disclosures and STRC recovering its $100 stated amount. Those milestones must arrive before a weekly close below $123 invalidates the price structure. TITN Titan Machinery Inc. LOW Titan Machinery’s farm-equipment recovery re-rating requires falling total inventory and preserved earnings guidance at its next quarterly report. A weekly close below $23 would invalidate the market thesis before confirmation. TNK Teekay Tankers Ltd. LOW Teekay Tankers’ record freight earnings underpin a continuation thesis requiring third-quarter rates to meet July booking benchmarks before a weekly close below $100.83. The next earnings report tests that persistence; its publication date… TRMD TORM plc LOW TORM plc’s freight-earnings story supports a conditional move to Evercore ISI’s $38 target, reported on 2026-08-27. The case succeeds at a daily close at or above $38 before a daily close below the 2026-09-11 reference close of $35.08… XXI Twenty One Capital, Inc. LOW The one re-rate catalyst just died: Tether's Strike–Elektron three-way merger was scrapped on 2026-07-21 and CEO Jack Mallers quit, dropping XXI to a fresh all-time low near $4.46. A leveraged-Bitcoin-treasury proxy stuck below 1.0x float… PANW Palo Alto Networks, Inc. fresh HIGH AI-security spend narrative accelerating with third-party confirmation: IBM missed Q2 ($17.2B vs $17.86B) on 2026-07-14 and blamed budget migration into Cybersecurity — PANW +6.4%, CRWD +10%, BUG +6% same session. New ATH close $357.53… NBIS Nebius Group N.V. fresh MEDIUM GPU-neocloud narrative re-accelerated after NVIDIA disclosed a 9.3% stake (7/20) and PT raises followed (Northland $410, Baird initiates Outperform $250); Alphabet's 7/22 "demand outpaces capacity" answers the Meta-Compute bear case. The… RKLB Rocket Lab Corporation fresh MEDIUM Rocket Lab's stabilisation case rests on operating growth absorbing acquisition dilution after its September 15 funding announcement. Iridium approval on 2026-09-24 followed by a weekly close above $64.26 confirms the narrow case only if a… MP MP Materials Corp. fresh LOW MP Materials' domestic-magnet recovery failed its $50 weekly-close test on 2026-09-18; Q4 2026 General Motors shipments remain the unresolved operating test. WTI W&T Offshore, Inc. fresh LOW W&T Offshore’s oil-to-cash recovery case has weakened as the 2026-09-18 adjusted close of $3.84 slipped below the dated $4.01 recovery hurdle. The thesis resolves with a daily close at or above the market’s $4.89 trailing-year high before… SHIP Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp. HIGH Seanergy Maritime’s freight upside rests on Q3 daily vessel earnings exceeding its 2026-07-30 estimate of approximately $30,998 while the dividend holds at $0.35 per share. The Q3 report tests that case; a weekly close below $15.50… ALM Almonty Industries Inc. fresh MEDIUM Non-China tungsten narrative now trades on one venue: the TSX exit took effect 2026-07-31 and the ASX removal 2026-09-01, leaving Nasdaq and Frankfurt. The operating case is unchanged — Sangdong throughput since 2026-07-01, Q2 revenue… ARIS Aris Mining Corporation MEDIUM Aris Mining’s expansion case depends on Marmato producing first gold in Q4 2026 with annual production guidance intact. Company confirmation before a weekly close below $17.50 would establish the near-term commissioning leg; first gold… AYA Aya Gold & Silver Inc. fresh MEDIUM Aya Gold & Silver's production-growth thesis requires Q3 Zgounder output above 1.49 million silver ounces and processing above 3,889 tonnes per day. Boumadine's September 9 study strengthens the development case, but a weekly close below… BBAR Banco BBVA Argentina S.A. MEDIUM Argentina country trade re-accelerated: June CPI printed 1.9% MoM on 2026-07-14 (first sub-2% of the cycle) and country risk broke to 402bp, tightest since April 2018, carrying BBAR to a fresh 52-week high of $22.47. Price now sits above… BETA Beta Technologies, Inc. fresh MEDIUM Beta Technologies' recovery case rests on certification progress converting aircraft backlog into revenue. A weekly close above the September 4 reference of $22.20 would confirm the price recovery; a weekly close below $19.00 would… BMA Banco Macro S.A. MEDIUM Banco Macro's sovereign-risk recovery gained support from August inflation of 1.7%, released September 10. The price case plays out on a weekly close above September 4's $78.57 before a weekly close below $72; Q2 credit deterioration still… DFDV DeFi Development Corp. fresh MEDIUM DeFi Development Corp.'s preferred financing creates a path to more Solana per common share. A subsequent issuer disclosure above the August 12 figure of 0.066 SOL per share would confirm that leg; a weekly close below $4.90 invalidates it. EDRY EuroDry Ltd. fresh MEDIUM EuroDry’s freight-led revaluation needs third-quarter charter earnings to sustain the second-quarter level. Confirmation requires reported TCE of at least $20,398 per vessel per day before a weekly close below $57.43; Panamax earnings of… GCMG GCM Grosvenor Inc. fresh MEDIUM GCM Grosvenor’s recurring-fee growth supports a revaluation, conditional on the next report sustaining FRE growth and fundraising. Confirmation requires quarterly fundraising at least matching Q2’s $2.3 billion and a weekly close above the… GH Guardant Health, Inc. fresh MEDIUM Guardant Health’s renewed advance prices broader Shield coverage becoming screening revenue. The next quarterly screening result must exceed Q2’s $52.9 million, reported on 2026-07-30; a weekly close below the 2026-09-04 reference close of… HPK HighPeak Energy, Inc. MEDIUM HighPeak Energy’s second-half spending reduction supports a debt-reduction thesis that third-quarter accounts must confirm. The case resolves with lower capital spending and total debt below June’s approximately $1.19 billion before a… IMAX Imax Corp MEDIUM IMAX Corporation's record summer supports renewed premium-format repricing; a weekly close above $54.79 would confirm the case. A weekly close below $47 would invalidate it, while the next quarterly results test whether summer demand… INFQ Infleqtion, Inc. fresh MEDIUM Infleqtion’s Cisco collaboration and NVIDIA software work refresh its funded-quantum story. A daily close above $13.60 by 2026-10-07 would validate the near-term price response; a daily close below $10.90 would invalidate it. MCS The Marcus Corporation MEDIUM Theatrical-recovery re-rating is drifting sideways with no company input: no release and no target revision since 2026-08-04, leaving consensus at $32.25 while the 2026-08-28 close of $29.02 sits 6.5% under the $31.03 52-week high.… NOG Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. MEDIUM Northern Oil and Gas’s crude-driven recovery faces a cash-flow test as hedges limit oil-price upside. A weekly close above the $29.64 annual high completes the price case, while a weekly close below $23.00 invalidates it; third-quarter… ONC BeOne Medicines Ltd. fresh MEDIUM BeOne Medicines’ BRUKINSA growth supports a renewed-high thesis, but September price action has not confirmed it. A weekly close above the supplied $377.47 high would establish the price outcome; a weekly close below $326 would invalidate… OWL Blue Owl Capital Inc. MEDIUM Private-credit-stress bottom trade picked up a second strand: Blue Owl managed funds led a $2.4B GPU-equipment financing for IREN on 2026-08-28, days after Oppenheimer took its target to $17. Price closed $12.02 on 2026-08-28, 5% below the… PARR Par Pacific Holdings, Inc. fresh MEDIUM Par Pacific's distillate-margin story now depends on Q3 operating confirmation as inventories rebuild from scarce levels. A weekly close above $86.49 would confirm price continuation; a weekly close below $76 would invalidate it. PLMR Palomar Holdings, Inc. fresh MEDIUM Palomar Holdings' $270–280 million FY2026 adjusted-income guidance, issued August 4, anchors the specialty-insurance growth thesis. Confirmation requires a weekly close above $144.79 before a weekly close below $128 invalidates it. RELY Remitly Global, Inc. fresh MEDIUM Operating-leverage leg intact but stalling: since the 2026-08-05 Q2 raise to $1.978–1.988B / $410–415M, the only new information has been supply — a Form 4 dated 2026-08-26 shows CFO Mehta selling 25,000 shares at $26.15, one dated… SCZM Santacruz Silver Mining Ltd. fresh MEDIUM Santacruz Silver's producer re-rating rests on deferred concentrate sales becoming revenue and added milling capacity reaching production. Q3 shipment disclosure and management's 2026-12-31 commercial-production milestone settle those… SE Sea Limited fresh MEDIUM Three-engine re-acceleration — Shopee GMV +30%, Monee loan book +71%, Garena's best quarter in 5 years — drove a Q1 beat (2026-05-12) and a +19% one-month recovery off the $77 low. Fundamentally accelerating, but the stock is short-term… TK Teekay Corporation Ltd. MEDIUM Teekay Corporation’s record tanker earnings support price continuation beyond its September 11, 2026 high of $14.38. A weekly close above $14.38 confirms that narrow case; a weekly close below $14.38 invalidates it. VET Vermilion Energy Inc. MEDIUM Vermilion Energy’s European gas revaluation needs Q3 cash flow to confirm the September price recovery. The case plays out if Q3 free cash flow exceeds C$122 million and production meets 116,000–118,000 boe/d before a weekly close below… VG Venture Global, Inc. MEDIUM LNG-export narrative re-accelerating on Europe's winter gas scramble plus a Middle East risk premium; VG ran +23% off the $12 mid-July shelf to $14.31 as Plaquemines ramps and CP2 advances. The 2026-08-11 pre-market Q2 print is the binary… ZS Zscaler, Inc. fresh MEDIUM Zscaler’s AI-security launch has renewed its recovery story, but faster growth remains unproven. Q1 FY27 revenue above the September 3 guidance of $935–939 million and a higher annual outlook would confirm the case; a weekly close below… AA Alcoa Corporation LOW Alcoa Corporation’s tariff-supported earnings story needs a recovery above the September 3, 2026 close of $51.05. Management’s September 10 argument that Canadian duty relief could help remains unconfirmed by price; a weekly close below… ABNB Airbnb, Inc. LOW Airbnb’s post-Q2 growth re-rating failed its published $175 weekly-close test on September 11, 2026, when shares closed at $170.19. The remaining operating case turns on Q3 revenue meeting the August 6 guidance floor of $4.69 billion. ACHR Archer Aviation Inc. LOW Archer Aviation’s acquisition-led recovery thesis failed when the 2026-09-11 weekly close of $5.58 breached its published $5.65 threshold. Completion of the Boeing transaction remains the business test, but cannot reverse that price… AEM Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. LOW Agnico Eagle Mines’ gold-driven cash generation supports a recovery case, tested by the September 16 Fed decision. A weekly close above the market’s August 28 reference close of $206.25 establishes recovery before a weekly close below $199… AFRM Affirm Holdings, Inc. fresh LOW The +80%-off-March recovery re-rate has matured and rolled over: Morgan Stanley pulled its Overweight ('valuation call') on 2026-06-25, and price faded ~30% from the $100 high back onto the reclaimed 200-day near $70 while targets stayed… AKTS Aktis Oncology, Inc. LOW Aktis Oncology's radiopharmaceutical story needs September conference attention to restore the August breakout. A weekly close above the 2026-08-28 close of $25.78 would confirm recovery, while a weekly close below $22 would invalidate the… AMZN Amazon.com, Inc. LOW Amazon's cloud-growth recovery case depends on earnings validating its infrastructure spending and price reclaiming the August record. A weekly close above $284.02 completes the price case; a weekly close below $245 invalidates it, with… ARES Ares Management Corporation LOW Ares Management’s fee-growth story faces a price-confirmation test after the 2026-09-11 close of $131.64. A weekly close above the September 4 reference of $140.15 before a weekly close below $130 would complete the recovery case; another… AU AngloGold Ashanti plc fresh LOW AngloGold Ashanti’s gold-margin rally thesis failed when its 2026-09-18 weekly close of $103.29 breached $105. A separate recovery case requires a weekly close back above $105 and production confirmation at the 2026-11-05 results. AUGO Aura Minerals Inc. fresh LOW Gold/copper producer basing $53–$76 under a broken ~$72 shelf after a ~45% fall from the $110 high. Q2 output slipped 8% QoQ — first sequential drop after a record Q1 — as gold cools to the low-$4,000s and sell-side keeps trimming (JPM to… BABA Alibaba Group Holding Limited fresh LOW Alibaba's cloud revaluation depends on Qwen commercial terms at the September 22–24, 2026 Apsara Conference and recovery above the $118.90 market shelf. The case fails on a weekly close below $112 or if the conference ends without those… BKNG Booking Holdings Inc. fresh LOW Booking Holdings’ repurchase-led earnings story has failed its published $188 weekly price test: the 2026-09-18 adjusted close was $167.90. A separate recovery case requires a weekly reclaim of $188 and Q3 room-night and revenue growth… BTE Baytex Energy Corp. fresh LOW July's Hormuz flare re-armed the oil-geopolitical premium, but it has since drained — WTI slipped to the low $70s and the 2026-07-17 sanctions wind-down passed with no barrel shortage, a contained-conflict bid rather than a supply shock.… CCS Century Communities, Inc. LOW Century Communities’ entry-level housing recovery thesis failed its $65 weekly price test at the 2026-09-11 close of $60.54. A renewed case requires a weekly close above $65 and company results sustaining year-over-year order growth and… CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. LOW Chipotle Mexican Grill's expansion-led recovery needs positive third-quarter traffic and a return above $38.52 by 2026-10-28. The 2026-09-11 close of $36.20 weakens that case; a weekly close below $35 or negative third-quarter transaction… COCO The Vita Coco Company, Inc. LOW The Vita Coco Company's growth-to-margin thesis failed its $60 weekly price test at the 2026-09-11 close of $52.01. A recovery above that shelf and quantified freight-cost guidance would reopen the case; the 2026-09-16 conference is the… DRD DRDGOLD Ltd. fresh LOW DRDGOLD’s gold-margin and processing-expansion thesis lost its published price support when the 2026-09-18 close breached $27.50. The continuation case is invalidated; a renewed expansion case requires completed commissioning and reported… ELVR Elevra Lithium Limited LOW The August leg failed at the print: the ADR closed $59.09 on 2026-08-28 versus $67.76 on 2026-08-21, even as the FY26 report guided FY27 production to 198,000–210,000 dmt against FY26's 197,967 dmt and GFEX carbonate settled CNY 158,700/t… ENVA Enova International, Inc. LOW Enova International’s credit-growth recovery requires a weekly close above $235.43 and Q3 confirmation of its raised growth outlook and credit resilience. A weekly close below $223 invalidates the case before that confirmation. EXK Endeavour Silver Corp. LOW Endeavour Silver’s Terronera ramp supports a silver operating-leverage thesis that requires Q3 cost confirmation. The case needs Q3 2026 all-in sustaining cost at or below $30 per silver ounce with annual $27–28 guidance retained before a… GFI Gold Fields Ltd ADR fresh LOW Margin-to-cash story intact from H1 (2026-08-25: $2.225bn adjusted FCF, dividend +132%, realised $4,678/oz), but the macro leg inverted on 2026-09-04 when 162k August payrolls against ~53k expected pushed September hike odds to roughly 65%… GGAL Grupo Financiero Galicia S.A. fresh LOW Argentina disinflation is still working — June CPI printed 1.9% MoM on Jul 14, an improvement on May's 2.1% — but the ADR faded the good print, dropping ~7% on the week to ~$50 and losing both the $51.07 50-day and the $52.86 200-day.… GOLF Acushnet Holdings Corp. fresh LOW Premium-golf consumable franchise (Titleist Pro V1) that ran to a $119.65 all-time high on a defensive-quality rotation, then bled ~11% of the mania premium back to the ~$104–105 June breakout shelf ($104.66 on 2026-07-24). The 2026-08-06… GOOG Alphabet Inc. LOW Alphabet’s Cloud backlog-conversion story needs sustained growth and margins without another capital-spending increase. The next quarterly report tests that case against the July results; a weekly close below $328 invalidates the… HL Hecla Mining Company LOW Hecla Mining Company's silver-margin story now hinges on recovering the 2026-09-03 close of $21.21. A weekly close above $21.21 completes the recovery case; a weekly close below $19 invalidates it. HMY Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited fresh LOW Harmony Gold’s cash-return thesis failed when the 2026-09-18 weekly close of $19.92 breached its published $20 threshold. The declared October dividend remains a catalyst, but it cannot reverse that recorded invalidation. IPAR Interparfums, Inc. fresh LOW Interparfums’ Cavalli renewal reinforces its long-license growth story, but earnings confirmation remains pending. The case plays out with a weekly close above the September 18 recorded high of $127.63 while annual guidance stays intact,… IPX IperionX Limited fresh LOW US critical-minerals sovereignty name whose funding overhang cleared the ugly way: a 2026-07-08 US$50M ADS raise priced at $21.98, ~22% below the ~$28 pre-deal level, resetting the stock to $22.94 near its $21.66 52-week low. Pre-revenue,… KNX Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings Inc. fresh LOW Beat-and-raise is filed (Q2 adj EPS $0.63; Q3 guided $0.71–$0.77) but the equity is flat since 2026-08-21 at $71.99 while the driver stalled rather than reaccelerated — all-mode tender rejections 13.57% on 2026-08-25 versus a July 4 peak… KOS Kosmos Energy Ltd. fresh LOW Jubilee ramping toward ~90,000 bopd gross (J76 online, J77/J50 imminent) with GTA LNG volumes climbing. Highest-beta E&P expression bounced ~15% off the $2.00 June low; re-accelerating but still a ~$2.30, 'CCC'-rated, most-levered… LAC Lithium Americas Corp. fresh LOW Lithium Americas’ Thacker Pass recovery thesis failed when the 2026-09-18 weekly close of $2.86 breached the published $3.00 shelf. A reclaim and the next construction update would support reassessment; JPMorgan’s September 9 endorsement… LAR Lithium Argentina AG fresh LOW Commodity transmission is now broken in both directions: the GFEX front carbonate quote came off to ~CNY 152,000/t on 2026-09-04 from CNY 156,140/t on 2026-08-22 while the shares went $6.83 to $6.79. The saturated lithium-recovery story… LEGN Legend Biotech Corporation fresh LOW In-vivo CAR-T re-rate has matured into digestion: EHA (6/13) confirmed LB2501's 100% ORR and clean durability, but the 6/17 $226M raise at $29.35 capped the leg and JPM's 7/13 Neutral $35 reinstatement caps the Street. No fresh catalyst… LGIH LGI Homes, Inc. fresh LOW LGI Homes has a low-conviction recovery case toward its former $54 threshold after August closings grew 9.9% year over year. A weekly close above $54 completes this separate stabilization hypothesis; a daily close below the September 18… LTH Life Time Group Holdings, Inc. LOW Life Time Group Holdings’ premium-club re-rating needs recovery above the August placement price and retention of July’s raised growth outlook. A weekly close above $43.16 and unchanged guidance at the next results would satisfy the case;… MRNA Moderna, Inc. fresh LOW Moderna’s cancer-treatment re-rating depends on full INTerpath-001 efficacy data and recovery above the market’s $174.38 event close. A weekly close below $130 invalidates the case; September investor appearances provide dated… MSFT Microsoft Corporation LOW AI-capex derating still in control and now colliding with a hostile print tape: Alphabet lost ~$294B on 2026-07-24 punished purely for AI spend, Tesla/Intel/Google all sold post-earnings, and MSFT reports Q4 FY26 on 2026-07-29 AMC below… MTH Meritage Homes Corporation fresh LOW Housing-rebound-on-rate-cuts trade that carried MTH to a $85.38 52-week high has reversed: it lost the $75 June breakout shelf to $74.17 (-4.2% on 7/17) as mortgages held at 6.49% and Zelman capitulated to Neutral (7/7). Fundamentals still… MTRN Materion Corporation LOW Beryllium critical-materials scarcity narrative still building, but the parabola cracked: a new ATH of $298.76 in early July gave way to a 5.6% reversal on 2026-07-07 to $247.20, now ~$258 and still ~9% above KeyBanc's $237 top target. The… MTUM LOW The AI-memory leg MTUM rotated into at the May reconstitution has rolled over: SOX -20%+ from its June peak, memory names in a bear market, and the fund closed $302.09 on 2026-07-17, below the $310 shelf that defined the… NAT Nordic American Tanker fresh LOW Nordic American Tankers' freight-rate rally needs exceptional contracts to lift reported fleet earnings. Confirmation requires the next fleet-wide daily TCE to exceed Q2 2026's $63,000 per ship before a weekly close below the September 18… NBR Nabors Industries Ltd. fresh LOW Leveraged ~2x oil-beta proxy on the Hormuz war premium, +90% YTD near $100 but now rolling over: Susquehanna cut its target to $85 (2026-07-08) as the sell-side stops chasing, and the ~2026-07-23 Q2 print — the first to lap the premium —… NNE Nano Nuclear Energy Inc. LOW Nuclear-microreactor narrative has stopped converting news into demand: a Truist Hold/$22 initiation (7/14) and a Virginia consortium announcement (7/17) landed inside four sessions and NNE still printed a fresh 52-week low at $15.78… OMDA Omada Health, Inc. fresh LOW Omada Health’s GLP-1 companion-care re-rating thesis failed when the September 18 weekly close of $20.43 breached its published $22 threshold. September 10’s long-term financial targets do not reverse that invalidation; a weekly close… PBR PETROLEO BRASILEIRO S.A.-PETROBRAS ADS (REP 1 COMMON SHARE) LOW Petrobras’s oil-linked momentum thesis requires a daily close above the September 11 reference high of $21.38 before a daily close below $21.20. Reported production growth supports the operating story, but expanding market participation… PLTR Palantir Technologies Inc. LOW Palantir Technologies' government and commercial AI expansion supports a recovery case, confirmed by a daily close above $180.18 before a weekly close below $165. September partnership headlines broaden distribution, but the September 11… PPTA Perpetua Resources Corp. fresh LOW Perpetua Resources’ domestic-antimony financing thesis requires definitive loan documentation and a final construction decision by 2026-12-31. The case fails first if a weekly close below $21 breaches the retained market boundary. SBSW Sibanye-Stillwater fresh LOW Sibanye-Stillwater's lower debt supports a metals-led recovery toward RBC's September 16 target of $15, conditional on no weekly close below $11.50. The September 18 palladium quote of $1,283 per ounce weakens the strike-premium argument. STTK Shattuck Labs, Inc. fresh LOW Shattuck Labs' receptor-blocking antibody story has advanced to an open Crohn's trial, according to management on September 8. The near-term recovery case requires a weekly close above September 4's $6.79 reference close before a weekly… SUPV Grupo Supervielle S.A. LOW Grupo Supervielle’s recovery thesis needs disinflation to reach credit growth and earnings. The next quarterly report tests for sequential loan growth and a nonperforming-loan ratio below 5.5%, while a weekly close below $7.50 invalidates… TEN Tsakos Energy Navigation Ltd. fresh LOW Tsakos Energy Navigation’s tanker earnings and fleet renewal support a continuation thesis. A weekly close above $52.81 before a weekly close below $52.09 would confirm the next price leg. TGTX TG Therapeutics, Inc. LOW The catalyst leg is spent; what is left is whether the $46–48 shelf holds through a two-month news vacuum into year-end subcutaneous Phase 3 topline. TSLA Tesla, Inc. LOW Tesla’s autonomy thesis requires Cybercab deployment to become a measurable business, confirmed by operating fleet and ride-pricing disclosures plus a daily close above $376.37. A daily close below $357 invalidates that case; the estimated… URGN UroGen Pharma Ltd. LOW UroGen Pharma’s ZUSDURI launch-growth thesis requires third-quarter revenue above the second quarter’s $50.4 million before a weekly close below $40 invalidates the structure. The confirmed 2026-09-15 conference adds management exposure,… UUUU Energy Fuels Inc. LOW Two sell-side target raises in consecutive sessions — HC Wainwright's $29.25 on 2026-09-01 and Cantor Fitzgerald's $33 reiteration on 2026-09-02 — moved the shares less than 1%, to a $14.29 close 48.4% under the 52-week high. With rare… VOYG Voyager Technologies, Inc. LOW Voyager Technologies’ order-book re-rating needs price recovery and September NASA procurement progress. The case requires a weekly close above the August $38.40 reference before a weekly close below $32, unchanged $275–305 million 2026…