Stocks · Archetype
Theme leader · 93 research notes
Stocks classified as Theme leader: 93 stocks, each with a dated research note: thesis, kill line and next catalyst.
All 93 have a dated research note with a published kill line: the note's own test, stated in advance, of what would prove it wrong: a price level, a business fact, or both.
All stocksIMAXMedium IMAX Corporation's shares are modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months on a record third quarter and a raised margin target; Dune: Part Three's 18 December 2026 opening and 2027 box-office guidance due early 2027…LLYEli LillyMedium Eli Lilly's shares are more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months, as tirzepatide volume still outruns price cuts and Foundayo won China approval on 12 November 2026. The fourth-quarter report and 2027 outlook, expected…MSFTMicrosoftMedium Microsoft's shares are modestly more likely to lead the S&P 500 over three months because Azure grew 48% in the September quarter and is guided to 49–50% for December. The fiscal second-quarter report, expected in late January 2027, shows…PLMRPalomar HoldingsMedium Palomar Holdings is more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months because estimates keep rising after its fourth 2026 guidance raise, to $280–285 million of adjusted net income. The fourth-quarter report, expected around…AAPLAppleMedium Apple's above-consensus 7–10% December-quarter revenue guide gives the shares a modest edge over the S&P 500. The fiscal first-quarter report due around late January 2027 settles it by showing whether iPhone Duo sales outrun memory costs…AMZNAmazon.comMedium Amazon.com's shares are modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months as AWS revenue grew 39% last quarter on a $578 billion backlog; Anthropic's IPO pricing, expected around 18 November 2026, and the fourth-quarter report…BWLPBW LPGMedium BW LPG Limited's shares are more likely to beat the S&P 500 because about 92% of third-quarter ship days were booked near $88,000 a day against $74,000 realised in the second quarter; the 24 November 2026 report shows whether earnings and…COSTCostco WholesaleMedium Costco Wholesale's underlying sales growth held at 7.3% in October and a $30 special dividend followed on 10 November 2026, giving the shares a modest edge over the S&P 500. The November sales report (~2 December 2026) and first-quarter…CRWVCoreWeaveMedium CoreWeave's third-quarter beat and 26% higher profit guide on 10 November 2026 give its shares a modestly better-than-even case against the S&P 500; the debt-funding plan, Microsoft's supplier review and Nvidia's leadership change decide…HNGEHinge HealthMedium Hinge Health's shares can lead the S&P 500 on 52% revenue growth and a raised $879–881 million 2026 guide; the February 2027 report must show fourth-quarter revenue of at least $249 million to keep the case.HTFLHeartflowMedium Heartflow's shares are modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months: third-quarter revenue rose 57% and the 2026 outlook was raised to $262–264 million, though the shares fell 19.13% on 13 November 2026. The fourth-quarter…LMTLockheed MartinMedium Lockheed Martin's record $292.0 billion backlog and raised 2026 guidance make the shares modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 after their post-midterm rebound. The 11 December 2026 federal funding deadline shows whether…ONONOn HoldingMedium On Holding's shares are rated modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 because the company kept FY2026 sales guidance and plans faster fourth-quarter growth; holiday sales from 27 November 2026 and the Q4 report around March 2027 settle it.RCLRoyal Caribbean GroupMedium Royal Caribbean Group's third-quarter beat, raised 2026 outlook and rising analyst targets give the shares a modestly better-than-even chance of beating the S&P 500, despite heavy director selling in November 2026. The fourth-quarter…RKLBRocket LabMedium Rocket Lab's record third-quarter revenue of $267.8 million and its $3.57 billion backlog give the shares a modestly better-than-even case against the S&P 500 over three months. A dated Neutron launch quarter and fourth-quarter revenue…RTXMedium RTX Corporation's record $340 billion backlog and raised 2026 guidance outweigh a defense budget now likely to slip into 2027; the 11 December 2026 funding deadline and the first 2027 guidance at the late-January report settle the case.SEZLSezzleMedium Sezzle's third-quarter beat, with credit-loss provisions at 2.7% of transaction volume, 955,000 subscribers and a $7.20 2027 EPS target, gives Sezzle Inc. shares a modest edge over the S&P 500. Fourth-quarter credit, reported around late…AFRMAffirm HoldingsLow Affirm Holdings' shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500: growth beat in the 5 November 2026 report, but delinquency rose to 2.9% and funding costs climbed. The February 2027 holiday-quarter report shows whether credit steadies.AXPAmerican ExpressLow American Express shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months, as card spending growth slowed to 8% and the 2026 guidance raise rests on a one-time gain; the fourth-quarter report and 2027 outlook, expected in late…BABAAlibaba Group HoldingLow Alibaba's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 into the 19 November 2026 September-quarter report: cloud revenue grew 45% in the June quarter, but chip supply, Qwen pricing and funding costs are unresolved. The report shows whether…BETABeta TechnologiesLow Beta Technologies' shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500, because Jefferies now models first CX300 deliveries in 2028 and fourth-quarter revenue is guided below the third quarter's. The FAA's pilot-program pathway and the early-2027…COINCoinbase GlobalLow Coinbase Global shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 because trading revenue is shrinking faster than new licenses add income. The fourth-quarter report, expected about mid-February 2027, tests the $550–630 million services guide.COPConocoPhillipsLow ConocoPhillips is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months because its gains rest on a war-lifted crude price; the OPEC+ meeting on 29 November 2026 tests that premium.CRWDCrowdStrike HoldingsLow CrowdStrike's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months because at about 156 times forward earnings they already price in fast growth. The 1 December 2026 report settles it by showing whether net new annual…CVXChevronLow Chevron's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months as Brent fell to $91.49 on 10 November 2026 and OPEC output neared prewar levels. The fourth-quarter report, around 30 January 2027, shows whether buybacks rise…DEDeereLow Deere & Company is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months because its shares already price in a 29% earnings rebound for fiscal 2027; the 25 November 2026 fourth-quarter report and first 2027 outlook show whether the company's…GEGE AerospaceLow GE Aerospace shares are more likely to trail the S&P 500 than lead: record China orders lifted them, but services and LEAP delivery growth slowed in the third quarter. FAA approval of the GE9X mid-seal and 2027 guidance around 22 January…GOOGAlphabetLow Alphabet's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 as 2027 spending above $300 billion and negative free cash flow outweigh Cloud revenue that doubled to $30.7 billion; the fourth-quarter report tests whether the $561 billion Cloud…GOOGLAlphabetLow Alphabet's shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 because Google Cloud's 103% growth has not yet paid for AI spending that turned free cash flow negative. Anthropic's IPO pricing, expected in the week of 16 November 2026, and the 2027…GSGoldman Sachs GroupLow Goldman Sachs' shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months: the Anthropic IPO it co-leads is largely priced in, while Fed rate-increase risk and a smaller fee backlog weigh on 2027 fees. The fourth-quarter report,…HOODRobinhood MarketsLow Robinhood Markets' event contracts are growing while crypto volume fell 21% in October and stock and options trading stalled, so the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500; November data and the February 2027 fourth-quarter report…IONQLow IonQ's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months as a sudden finance-chief exit and 34.6 million newly registered resale shares add to widening losses despite a raised $505–515 million 2026 revenue outlook. Gary Merrill's…ISRGIntuitive SurgicalLow Intuitive Surgical's shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 because US procedure growth slowed to 10% and instrument revenue per procedure is set to fall 3%–5% from 2027. The mid-January 2027 preliminary procedure count will show…JPMJPMorgan ChaseLow JPMorgan Chase's shares look more likely to trail the S&P 500 over three months after a third-quarter miss, a roughly 90% buyback cut and a reported Senate Epstein review; the 9 December 2026 CFO update and 14 January 2027 report decide it.LACLithium AmericasLow Lithium Americas' shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 because its 11 November 2026 Thacker Pass cost increase of $900 million to $3.83 billion adds to funding needs while dilution continues; year-end 2026 power energization and final…METAMeta PlatformsLow Meta Platforms shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: 26% ad growth faces $25 billion of forward-sale stock, new bonds and a roughly $60 billion Class C stock program that can start on 19 January 2027. Fourth-quarter…MPMP MaterialsLow MP Materials shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months because General Motors magnet volumes start small and analysts keep cutting targets. The expected Trump–Xi meeting at APEC on 18 November 2026 and fourth-quarter…MSTRStrategyLow Strategy Inc.'s common shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500: MSCI confirmed on 11 November 2026 that it will delete the stock at the 30 November close, and bitcoin trades below Strategy's $75,456 average cost. Weekly 8-K filings show…NBISNebius GroupLow Nebius Group's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months because its 12 November 2026 report pushed Microsoft capacity into 2027 and raised 2026 spending to about $27 billion. The fourth-quarter report, expected around…NTRANateraLow Natera's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 into early 2027, because an abrupt CEO change on 5 November 2026 outweighed a revenue beat and raised guidance. The Q4 report, estimated for late February 2027, tests Signatera growth…NVDANVIDIALow NVIDIA's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months because Jensen Huang's 12 November 2026 resignation left an interim CEO, an open board investigation and seven broker downgrades. The 17 November 2026 quarterly…OKLOLow Oklo Inc. shares lean toward lagging the S&P 500 because its first Aurora plant still has no published cost and the company keeps selling stock. A disclosed plant cost and a quarter of slower share issuance would show that view wrong.PANWPalo Alto NetworksLow Palo Alto Networks shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 until AI security demand lifts its $14.10B–$14.20B fiscal 2027 revenue outlook; the 18 November 2026 fiscal Q1 report settles it. Jefferies cut its target to $400 from $450 on 12…PLTRPalantir TechnologiesLow Palantir Technologies looks more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months because contract signings grew only 6% in the third quarter while revenue grew 96%; the fourth-quarter report, expected around 1 February 2027, shows whether…SPCXSpaceXLow SpaceX shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 because Anthropic, its largest compute customer, can leave its contracts in early 2027. The 1 December 2026 billing start of a $1.11-billion-a-month hosting deal is the first test of whether…TSLATeslaLow Tesla's shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: operating income fell 56% while the price ran up on unsigned SpaceX merger talks. Terms, which Bloomberg says could come as soon as December, and the early-January…VVisaLow Visa's shares are more likely to trail the S&P 500 than lead it over three months: at about 34 times trailing earnings the price reflects the franchise, while Visa's fiscal 2027 outlook slows earnings growth in a heavy contract-renewal…XEX-EnergyLow X-Energy's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: the NRC approved Dow's Long Mott permit on 9 November 2026, but the 12 November 2026 report showed losses widening and first power stays in the early 2030s. Dow's 2027…XOMExxon MobilLow Exxon Mobil's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 as Brent's war premium unwinds and Goldman Sachs and Bernstein cut targets. The January 2027 fourth-quarter report settles it by showing whether refining profit held near $9.1 billion.ABNBAirbnbMedium Airbnb's faster third-quarter growth, raised 2026 outlook and $12 billion buyback give its shares a modest edge over the S&P 500; fourth-quarter revenue against the $3.22–$3.28 billion guide, due around mid-February 2027, settles it.ATRCAtriCureMedium AtriCure's 3 November 2026 report backed its profit-led re-rating with 15.0% revenue growth and adjusted EPS guidance raised to $0.40–$0.46, so the shares modestly favour beating the S&P 500. The fourth-quarter report in early 2027 decides…HAFNHafniaMedium Hafnia Limited's shares are modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months because peers report fourth-quarter product tanker bookings far above Hafnia's $30,716 per day for the third quarter; the 18 November 2026 report shows…IPARInterparfumsMedium Interparfums' third-quarter operating margin rose to 27.4% on flat $430 million sales and full-year sales guidance was raised to $1.490 billion; the 2027 outlook due 18 November 2026 shows whether the profit gain carries forward.ONCBeOne MedicinesMedium BeOne Medicines' BRUKINSA growth and widening margins make the shares modestly more likely to beat the S&P 500 over three months; full MANGROVE lymphoma results on 13 December 2026 test the next label, and the fourth-quarter report settles…PARRPar Pacific HoldingsMedium Par Pacific's refining earnings beat in Q3 2026 (adjusted EPS $10.70 vs $6.65 consensus) and the October refining index of $41.34 per barrel is above July's $31.34, yet the shares fell to $68.61; Q4 capture and Laramie cash settle it.RELYRemitly GlobalMedium Remitly Global's Q3 adjusted EBITDA of $120.8M beat its $92–94M guide and full-year guidance rose, so the shares are modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500; the Q4 report settles whether margins hold.TARSTarsus PharmaceuticalsMedium Tarsus Pharmaceuticals' XDEMVY sales beat the prior quarter and the company raised 2026 guidance to $715–730 million, which supports the case that the eyelid-mite drug can fund the retina pipeline. Growth is slowing and cash fell to $309.6…TNKTeekay TankersMedium Teekay Tankers' third-quarter 2026 beat and its forecast of record fourth-quarter results make the shares modestly likely to beat the S&P 500. Spot tanker rates through the Hormuz disruption and US sanctions policy will settle it.VGVenture GlobalMedium Venture Global's shares have a modest edge over the S&P 500 after the company raised its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guide to $10.0–10.3 billion on 10 November 2026. Year-end long-term contracts, the first AI power order and CP2's July 2027 start…ASSTStriveLow Strive, Inc. funded about 43,000 bitcoin with 13% to 15% preferred stock, but weekly buying fell to 124 and 29 bitcoin after 30 October; the 16 November filing and the SATA December dividend rate show whether funding still works.AUAngloGold AshantiLow AngloGold Ashanti's third-quarter report missed on volume and cost: output fell to 696,000 ounces and all-in sustaining cost rose to $2,170 an ounce, though full-year guidance held. The fourth-quarter output decides whether the guidance is…AUGOAura MineralsLow Aura Minerals' record third quarter did not bring costs inside full-year guidance, so the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it; fourth-quarter all-in sustaining cost, due with results around 24 February 2027, settles it.BKNGBooking HoldingsLow Booking Holdings is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months because it guided fourth-quarter room-night growth down to 1%–3% with flat adjusted EBITDA. The fourth-quarter report, expected in late February 2027, shows whether…BMNRBitMine Immersion TechnologiesLow BitMine Immersion, the largest corporate ether holder, is likely to lag the S&P 500: it held 4.97% of ether supply against a stated 5% cap and booked a $6.3 billion fiscal 2026 loss. The weekly holdings releases through late November show…BTEBaytex EnergyLow Baytex Energy's crude-and-buyback story gave way to a growth plan on 5 November 2026, and the shares closed at $4.17 on 10 November 2026; delivery of 76,000-79,000 boe/d in 2027 within a C$775-850 million budget settles the case.CRCLCircle Internet GroupLow Circle Internet Group's shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 because USDC circulation and reserve income are shrinking while bank- and Coinbase-backed rivals build; the fourth-quarter report shows whether USDC growth resumes.DHTDHT HoldingsLow DHT Holdings shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 despite record fourth-quarter tanker bookings, because investors are pricing a 2027 rate decline. DHT's first-quarter 2027 bookings, due in its January update and February report,…DINOHF SinclairLow HF Sinclair's record $54.22-a-barrel third-quarter refining margin has the shares, which closed at $98.76 on 10 November 2026 as post-election policy risk and easing diesel cracks hit refiners. Fourth-quarter diesel margins and fuel-rule…FROFrontlineLow Frontline's shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months because crude-tanker spot rates roughly halved in the week to 12 November 2026. The third-quarter report on 20 November 2026 shows how much of October's rate…INFQInfleqtionLow Infleqtion's neutral-atom quantum hardware and government-funded work are real, but the shares closed at $9.35 on 10 November 2026, 52.9% below the 52-week high; the third-quarter report on 16 November 2026 decides whether revenue confirms…INSWInternational SeawaysLow International Seaways' record third-quarter profit has up its share price as tanker spot rates ease from their peak, so the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months; spot rates and the 23 December 2026 dividend settle it.LARLithium ArgentinaLow Lithium Argentina is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: its third-quarter realized lithium price of $17,580 per tonne fell below the $18,000 Stage 2 base case. The year-end PPG approval target and the 15 January 2027 note…LEGNLegend BiotechLow Legend Biotech's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 after the 10 November 2026 report, which showed a profit but slowing CARVYKTI growth and drew four target cuts. Anito-cel's 23 December 2026 FDA decision and fourth-quarter sales…LPGDorian LpgLow Dorian LPG shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months because its record gas-carrier rates rest on a largely shut Strait of Hormuz that US-Iran talks could reopen. The December-quarter forward booking release, expected…MPCMarathon PetroleumLow Marathon Petroleum's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 because a record $45.70-a-barrel third-quarter refining margin did not stop a post-report slide; the fourth-quarter report, expected in early February 2027, shows whether…MTHMeritage HomesLow Meritage Homes' shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: the early-November rate rebound has reversed to $64.80 on 12 November 2026, and third-quarter orders fell 15% with no guidance. Builder sentiment around 17…NATNordic American TankerLow Nordic American Tankers' shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 because Atlantic suezmax spot rates fell 29–52% in the week to 6 November 2026. The 30 November 2026 third-quarter report and dividend show whether fourth-quarter bookings…NNENano Nuclear EnergyLow NANO Nuclear Energy's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: they closed at $11.09 on 12 November 2026, and its agreements are non-binding. The 30 November 2026 business update webcast, following the annual report,…OMDAOmada HealthLow Omada Health beat and raised on 5 November 2026, yet the shares fell 20.37% on 6 November 2026 and closed at $15.09 on 9 November 2026, because revenue growth slowed to 34% and 2027 is unquantified. The fourth-quarter report and 2027…PBFPBF EnergyLow PBF Energy's record third-quarter earnings look priced in, so the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months; weekly distillate inventory reports from 18 November 2026 and Russian diesel arrivals show whether margins hold.PBRPetroleo Brasileiro S.A.-PetrobrasLow Petrobras shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 after a third-quarter dividend below bank forecasts and higher 2026 capital-spending guidance. The 2027–2031 strategic plan, due on 23 November 2026, shows whether payouts recover.PPTAPerpetua ResourcesLow Perpetua Resources' case rests on closing its $2.9 billion EXIM loan and announcing a construction decision by 31 December 2026; the mid-November third-quarter report is the next check on cash, and no closing has been announced.PSXPhillips 66Low Phillips 66 still looks more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: the shares carry a war premium that crude's November slide is eroding. Whether the diesel crack spread holds above its $64 one-year average settles it.RVMDRevolution MedicinesLow Revolution Medicines' shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: they closed at $176.35 on 12 November 2026, and the fourth-quarter RASONQUE report, expected about February 2027, shows if the $197.6 million first quarter…SCZMSantacruz Silver MiningLow Santacruz Silver's case as a larger Bolivian silver producer remains weakened: Q3 silver output fell 5% and the shares closed at $7.57 on 10 November 2026; the Q3 financial results (listed for 13 November 2026) show whether revenue tops…SESeaLow Sea Limited's Q3 report on 10 November 2026 beat on revenue and showed Shopee profit rising, but Monee's bad-loan ratio rose to 1.3% and EPS missed, so a rebound from $76.80 is unproven. The Q4 report, due around March 2027, settles…STTKShattuck LabsLow Shattuck Labs' DR3-blocking antibody SL-325 has no patient efficacy data until the first half of 2028, and the shares closed at $4.99 on 9 November 2026 after the Q3 report; the Phase 2 trial starts decide the next step.TITNTitan MachineryLow Titan Machinery's shares, up 26.9% in three months, are more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it until results show a farm-equipment recovery; the 24 November 2026 fiscal third-quarter report must show inventory below $931.5 million.TRMDTORMLow TORM plc's shares are more likely to trail the S&P 500 over three months: they closed at $35.36 on 11 November 2026, below the $39.60 net asset value, despite a strong third quarter. LR2 freight rates and Gulf product flows settle it.VLOValero EnergyLow Valero Energy's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months as refining margins fade from a record third quarter, a case a 4.1 million-barrel U.S. diesel stock build reported on 12 November 2026 supports. The…VOYGVoyager TechnologiesLow Voyager Technologies is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: record bookings and a $742 million backlog sit against widening losses, and the shares closed at $27.79 on 12 November 2026, 47.0% below the 52-week high. NASA's 8…XXITwenty One CapitalLow Twenty One Capital, a Tether-controlled bitcoin treasury company, still has no signed cash-generating acquisition, so its shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500. The 13 November 2026 third-quarter earnings call shows whether a deal,…ZSZscalerLow Zscaler's business still tracks guidance, but its shares fell to $194.92 on 10 November 2026 in a market-wide sell-off. The 2 December first-quarter report decides whether revenue beats the $935–939 million guide.