PBF · PBF Energy
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $86.99
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
18.1% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $86.99, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 4.6% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $86.99, close to the October peak, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again. A raised 2027 outlook or fourth-quarter refining margins above the third-quarter level would also show the shares leading.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Energy
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 29 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 12,133
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +58.6
- Gross margin (%)
- 17.9
- Operating margin (%)
- 17.3
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 2,625
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 426
- Price to earnings (×)
- 3.2
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 0.2
All filed numbers
What PBF Energy reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 12,133 | +58.6 | 17.9 | 17.3 |
| first filed | 11,678 | +56.2 | 9.8 | 10.9 |
| first filed | 7,904 | +11.9 | 3.5 | 3.8 |
| first filed | 7,140 | −2.9 | −1.8 | 1.8 |
| first filed | 7,651 | −8.7 | 0.5 | 3.7 |
| first filed | 7,475 | −14.4 | −0.8 | 0.6 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 2,047 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 2,712 | 1,529 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +4.1 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 3,509 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 885 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 2,625 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 2,544 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt plus current maturities | 2,118 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 426 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +11.5% on a year | 32.0 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | 3,215 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 7,956 |
| Market value ($M) | 8,750 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 8,324 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 0.2 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 2.2 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 3.2 |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.1 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 30.0 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 9.1% of shares outstanding sold short, 3.8 days of average trading to cover, −5.1% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $96.9M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $1.0B |
The thesis
PBF Energy reported record third-quarter earnings on 29 October 2026, yet the shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months, because the market is already pricing a fade from record diesel margins. The weekly federal distillate inventory reports, starting 18 November 2026, and Russian diesel arrivals settle whether margins hold.
The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $12.78 on revenue of $12,132.8 million, per its 8-K filed 29 October 2026. Gross refining margin excluding special items was $34.56 a barrel, against $9.00 a year earlier. The shares closed at $70.96 on 12 November 2026, 23.3% below the 52-week high of $92.46 reached intraday on 14 October 2026.
The shares have lost most of their October gain despite the beat. They closed at $65.91 on 10 November 2026 and at $69.73 on 11 November 2026, so the 12 November 2026 close recovered part of that drop. The 50-day average of $76.94 sits above the last close and the 200-day average of $54.88 sits well below it.
Bullish and bearish views on PBF ENERGY INC.
The bull case on PBF ENERGY INC. (PBF), in brief: earnings beat on a record margin. The bear case: the shares fell after a record quarter.
Bull case
- Earnings beat on a record margin. Adjusted earnings per share were $12.78 and gross refining margin excluding special items was $34.56 a barrel, against $9.00 in the third quarter of 2025, per the 29 October 2026 results release.
- Balance sheet is net cash. Cash was $2,544.3 million and total debt $2,118.4 million at 30 September 2026, a net cash position of about $426 million, per the 8-K.
- Interest costs fall in 2027. PBF redeemed the $800 million 9.875% notes due 2030, and management said on the 29 October 2026 call that 2027 interest expense should be at least $130 million lower.
- Cost savings are running ahead. Management said on the call that annualised refinery cost improvements exceed $230 million and should pass $350 million by year-end 2026.
- Dividend raised 18%. The quarterly payout rose to $0.325 a share, with a record date of 12 November 2026 and payment on 24 November 2026, per the results release.
- Fourth-quarter volume guidance is firm. Throughput guidance is 925,000 to 985,000 barrels a day, per the 29 October 2026 release.
Bear case
- The shares fell after a record quarter. The quoted close was $67.27 on 6 November 2026 and $70.96 on 12 November 2026, both far under the $92.46 intraday high of 14 October 2026. The decline began as margins reached their highest levels, which points to a market expecting them to fall back.
- Margins sit at an extreme. RBN Energy put the Gulf Coast diesel crack spread (the gap between diesel and crude prices) at a record $111 a barrel in September 2026. World Oil Monitor put the diesel crack against Brent at $89.38 on 20 October 2026.
- More Russian diesel is reaching the US. An S&P Global headline on 9 November 2026 said Russian diesel exports are rising despite refinery strikes, with the US the top destination. Additional supply would narrow the spread that drove the quarter.
- Insiders sold into the October rally. A Form 4 filed 4 November 2026 shows director Karen Berriman Davis sold 12,117 shares at an average $77.43 on 2 November to 3 November 2026. A Form 4 filed 3 November 2026 shows the Controller and Chief Accounting Officer sold 2,522 shares at $76.69 on 2 November 2026.
- Analysts are cautious. Piper Sandler kept a Neutral rating and raised its target to $97 on 2 November 2026. Freedom Broker upgraded the shares to Hold on 4 November 2026, not to a buy rating.
- Insurance recoveries blur earnings. Insurers had paid $1.25 billion to date on the Martinez refinery claim, and the company expects to finalise it before year-end 2026, per the 8-K. Later quarters will show earnings without those recoveries.
Price setup
The shares closed at $70.96 on 12 November 2026 on quoted daily closes. That is 23.3% below the 52-week intraday high of $92.46 set on 14 October 2026. The three-month price change is −0.8%, measured from the $71.85 close of 14 August 2026.
The last close is under the 50-day average of $76.94, so the shares have not recovered the trend level they held through October. They remain well above the 200-day average of $54.88. The 52-week closing low was $26.02 on 18 December 2025.
The record date for the dividend passed on 12 November 2026. No earnings report falls within the next 30 days.
Catalysts ahead
- 18 November 2026: Federal weekly petroleum status report (distillate inventories). Consecutive distillate inventory builds would show diesel tightness easing and pressure margins; draws would support them.
- ~30 November 2026 (est.): Russian diesel deliveries to the US during November under the US–Russia arrangement. Larger arrivals add supply and could narrow diesel margins; small volumes would leave margins intact.
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): Company's targeted finalisation of the Martinez insurance claim. Ends the insurance recoveries that support 2026 earnings and sets the base for 2027 results.
What would change the view
A daily close above $86.99, close to the October peak, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again. A raised 2027 outlook or fourth-quarter refining margins above the third-quarter level would also show the shares leading.
What it trades with
PBF is a pure merchant refiner with no upstream or midstream earnings, so it moves with US refining crack spreads, Brent crude and distillate inventories. It trades with Valero and Marathon Petroleum, which Benzinga grouped with PBF on 21 October 2026 as part of the same 2026 refining rally. Political headlines on Russian diesel and diesel export policy move the group together.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share $12.78 on revenue of $12,132.8 million; gross refining margin excluding special items $34.56 a barrel versus $9.00 a year earlier. PBF Energy 8-K, third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Cash $2,544.3 million, total debt $2,118.4 million at 30 September 2026; quarterly dividend raised 18% to $0.325 a share, record date 12 November 2026, payable 24 November 2026. PBF Energy 8-K, third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Fourth-quarter 2026 throughput guidance of 925,000 to 985,000 barrels a day; 2026 capital spending guidance $825–875 million excluding the Martinez rebuild. PBF Energy 8-K, third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Insurers have paid $1.25 billion to date on the Martinez claim; the company expects to finalise it before year-end 2026. PBF Energy 8-K, third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Management expects at least $130 million lower 2027 interest expense after redeeming the $800 million 9.875% notes due 2030, and refinery cost savings above $350 million by year-end 2026. Third-quarter 2026 earnings call, per MarketBeat summary · as of
- Director Karen Berriman Davis sold 12,117 shares at an average $77.43 on 2 November to 3 November 2026; the Controller and Chief Accounting Officer sold 2,522 shares at $76.69 on 2 November 2026. SEC Form 4 filings, 3 November 2026 and 4 November 2026 · as of
- Piper Sandler maintained a Neutral rating and raised its price target to $97; Freedom Broker upgraded the shares to Hold on 4 November 2026. Company news headlines, 2 November 2026 and 4 November 2026 · as of
- The shares closed at $70.96 on 12 November 2026, 23.3% below the quoted 52-week intraday high of $92.46 set on 14 October 2026. Split-adjusted daily closes · as of
Sources
- SEC EDGAR
- MarketBeat ·
- Refined Products, Diesel-Gasoil · spglobal.com
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