DINO · HF Sinclair
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $114.21
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
10.5% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $114.21, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 8.1% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $114.21, the close before the results of 28 October 2026 (27 October 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 28 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 10,857
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +49.7
- Gross margin (%)
- 29.0
- Operating margin (%)
- 24.6
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 3,271
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 559
- Price to earnings (×)
- 5.0
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 0.5
All filed numbers
What HF Sinclair reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 10,857 | +49.7 | 29.0 | 24.6 |
| first filed | 10,390 | +53.2 | 15.1 | 11.2 |
| first filed | 7,123 | +11.8 | 16.7 | 11.9 |
| first filed | 6,464 | — | 5.6 | 0.1 |
| first filed | 7,251 | — | 12.5 | 7.8 |
| first filed | 6,784 | — | 9.2 | 4.1 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 2,649 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 3,527 | 2,015 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −5.7 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 3,759 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 488 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 3,271 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 3,333 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 2,774 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 559 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 2,136 |
| Inventory ($M) | 3,432 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 11,720 |
| Market value ($M) | 17,511 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 16,952 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 0.5 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 3.6 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 5.0 |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.5 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 18.7 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 4.1% of shares outstanding sold short, 3.1 days of average trading to cover, +0.2% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $1.1M | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $3.5M | $1.7M |
The thesis
HF Sinclair's record third-quarter refining margin has not protected the shares. They closed at $98.76 on 10 November 2026, well below the $111.96 close of 28 October 2026, because policy risk after the 3 November 2026 midterm elections and softer diesel margins entered the price. Fourth-quarter diesel margins and any federal fuel-rule or export action settle whether the shares recover.
The quarter itself is not in doubt. Adjusted refining gross margin was $54.22 per produced barrel sold, against $25.95 in the second quarter of 2026 and $19.16 a year earlier, according to the company's 28 October 2026 8-K. Adjusted earnings were $11.75 a share against a $7.65 estimate, according to Benzinga.
The selling since then is about what comes next. TIKR reported on 4 November 2026 that HF Sinclair fell 9% after Democrats won the Senate, the largest drop among the refiners it named, and that the shares had traded at 4.9 times forward earnings before the fall. TIKR's reading is that investors fear tougher federal fuel rules, and that HF Sinclair depends on EPA small refinery waivers more than its peers. The new Senate is not seated until January.
The story is well known: the record quarter is reported, the shares have dropped from a 52-week high close of $128.23, and the fresh news since 28 October 2026 is policy risk, not new earnings strength. The 14-day relative strength index (RSI), a momentum gauge, was 22.5 on 10 November 2026, against 81.2 on 15 October 2026 in Benzinga's overbought screen.
Bullish and bearish views on HF Sinclair Corporation
The bull case on HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO), in brief: record margin and a large beat. The bear case: policy risk replaced margin strength.
Bull case
- Record margin and a large beat. The 28 October 2026 8-K showed adjusted net income of $2,079 million and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) of $2,984 million. Sales were $10.857 billion against an $8.893 billion estimate, according to Benzinga.
- Cash returns continue. The company spent $479 million on buybacks in the third quarter and returned $572 million in total. Cash was $3,333 million on 30 September 2026. The board declared a $0.525 quarterly dividend on 28 October 2026.
- Analyst targets sit above the price. Morgan Stanley raised its target to $130 with an overweight rating on 2 November 2026. Raymond James' target is $160, Piper Sandler's is $152, Goldman Sachs' is $142 and Wells Fargo's is $135, all set in October. All sit above the $98.76 close.
- The shares are priced low against earnings. TIKR put the forward price-to-earnings ratio at 4.9 before the 4 November 2026 drop. The shares are now lower still, with an RSI of 22.5 on 10 November 2026.
- Middle East constraints persist. The company said on its 28 October 2026 call that refining capacity constraints in the Middle East continue, which supports product margins outside the US.
Bear case
- Policy risk replaced margin strength. The 9% fall on 4 November 2026 followed the Democratic Senate win, according to TIKR. Marathon Petroleum fell 10% and Valero 8% the same session, so the move was sector-wide.
- Diesel supply is returning. Russia partly lifted its diesel export ban on 10 October 2026, and the US Treasury licensed Russian diesel transactions through 7 April 2027, according to Reuters. The G7 agreed on 2 October 2026 to release 100 million barrels, half of it diesel.
- US distillate stocks built. EIA data for the week to 16 October 2026 showed a 1.675 million barrel build against an expected 1.2 million barrel draw, Newsquawk reported on 21 October 2026. The prior week had shown a 2.5 million barrel draw.
- Wall Street was already cooling on refiners. Jefferies downgraded Valero and Marathon to Hold in late October, citing diesel demand destruction, a possible end to the war and political intervention, Benzinga reported. TD Cowen kept a hold rating on HF Sinclair with a $110 target on 22 October 2026.
- A $54.22 margin is hard to repeat. It is more than double the $25.95 of the second quarter. Crude charge averaged 614,060 barrels a day in the third quarter, down from 639,050 a year earlier, according to the 8-K.
Price setup
The shares closed at $98.76 on 10 November 2026, 23.0% below the 52-week high close of $128.23. They closed at $124.70 on 15 October 2026 and $111.96 on 28 October 2026. The adjusted series shows a 7.5% gain over three months.
MarketBeat recorded the 50-day moving average at $101.24 on 8 October 2026. The 10 November 2026 close sits under that figure. Only a daily close back above it would show buyers returning after the post-election drop.
The overbought crowding of mid-October has unwound. Benzinga's screen showed an RSI of 81.2 on 15 October 2026, and the reading was 22.5 on 10 November 2026. The 2 November 2026 headlines show Morgan Stanley raising its target and a Zacks newsletter mentioning the shares, so attention was still positive just before the election.
No earnings report falls inside the next 30 days. The ex-dividend date for the $0.525 payment was announced on 6 November 2026 for the 12 November 2026 record date.
Catalysts ahead
- ~18 November 2026 (est.): EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report. A distillate draw would support fourth-quarter margins; a build would show Russian and G7 supply refilling stocks.
- ~25 November 2026 (est.): EIA weekly report ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday. A second straight build would add to the October evidence that diesel supply is easing.
- 2 December 2026: Payment date for the $0.525 quarterly dividend. Completes the cash return declared on 28 October 2026.
Elapsed catalysts
- 12 November 2026: Record date for the $0.525 quarterly dividend, payable 2 December 2026. Confirms the cash return the board declared with the third-quarter results. (passed)
What would change the view
A daily close above $114.21, the close before the results of 28 October 2026 (27 October 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong.
What it trades with
HF Sinclair trades with the other independent refiners. Marathon Petroleum, Valero and Phillips 66 fell 6% to 10% in the same sessions in late October and again on 4 November 2026, according to Benzinga and TIKR. Benzinga reported on 21 October 2026 that refiners had tripled in 2026.
Crude is a cost to a refiner, so margins depend on the gap between product prices and crude. On the late-October selloff, Benzinga reported crude down about 1.8% to just under $100 a barrel while Valero fell 8.4%, so the move came from crack spreads, not crude.
Diesel is the specific driver. Russian export policy, G7 reserve releases and weekly US distillate stocks move the shares more than gasoline does. HF Sinclair's exposure to EPA small refinery waivers adds a policy driver that TIKR says the larger peers share less.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 adjusted refining gross margin was $54.22 per produced barrel sold, against $19.16 in the third quarter of 2025 and $25.95 in the second quarter of 2026. HF Sinclair third-quarter 2026 results release (8-K) · as of
- Third-quarter adjusted net income was $2,079 million, or $11.75 per share, against a $7.65 estimate. Sales were $10.857 billion against an $8.893 billion estimate. HF Sinclair 8-K; Benzinga estimates · as of
- HF Sinclair shares fell 9% after Democrats won the Senate; they traded at 4.9 times forward earnings before the drop. TIKR, 'Marathon Petroleum Sinks 10%, Valero Down 8%...' · as of
- US EIA distillate stocks rose 1.675 million barrels in the week to 16 October 2026 against an expected 1.2 million barrel draw; the prior week was a 2.527 million barrel draw. Newsquawk, US EIA distillate stocks headline · as of
- Morgan Stanley maintained overweight on HF Sinclair and raised its price target to $130. Benzinga · as of
- Russia partly lifted its diesel export ban on 10 October 2026, and the US Treasury licensed Russian diesel transactions through 7 April 2027. Reuters via The Moscow Times · as of
- The company spent $479 million on share repurchases in the third quarter and returned $572 million including dividends. Cash was $3,333 million on 30 September 2026. HF Sinclair third-quarter 2026 results release (8-K) · as of
- Valero fell 8.4%, Marathon 6.7% and Phillips 66 6.5% in a late-October refiner selloff while crude fell about 1.8%; Jefferies downgraded Valero and Marathon to Hold. Benzinga, 'Refiner Stocks Post Worst Day Since April 2025 Tariff Shock' · as of
Sources
- Marathon Petroleum Sinks 10%, Valero Down 8% as Oil Stocks Slide After Democrats Win the Senate · tikr.com ·
- US EIA Distillate Stocks Change (Oct/16) 1.675M vs. Exp. -1.2M (Prev. -2.527M) · newsquawk.com ·
- Refiner Stocks Post Worst Day Since April 2025 Tariff Shock · benzinga.com
- Trump-Putin Diesel Deal: What It Means For Refiner Stocks - Marathon Petroleum (NYSE:MPC), Phillips 66 (N · benzinga.com
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