DK · Delek US Holdings
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $78.11
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
12.3% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $78.11, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 2.4% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $78.11, the highest close of the last 20 sessions (26 October 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500. So would fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share excluding the RVO adjustment and SREs above the $10.53 reported for the third quarter.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Energy
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 6 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 4,392
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +52.1
- Gross margin (%)
- 36.0
- Operating margin (%)
- 34.6
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 1,201
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −2,055
- Price to earnings (×)
- 3.5
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 0.5
All filed numbers
What Delek US Holdings reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 4,392 | +52.1 | 36.0 | 34.6 |
| first filed | 4,087 | +47.8 | 8.9 | 7.4 |
| first filed | 2,653 | +0.4 | −4.9 | −6.8 |
| first filed | 2,429 | +2.3 | 9.3 | 6.8 |
| first filed | 2,887 | −5.1 | 13.8 | 10.2 |
| first filed | 2,765 | −16.4 | 1.9 | −1.2 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 1,468 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 1,180 | 1,134 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +2.1 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 1,794 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 593 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 1,201 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 1,335 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 3,390 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −2,055 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −18.6% on a year | 3.5 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 1,006 |
| Inventory ($M) | 1,085 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) including non-controlling interests | 1,666 |
| Market value ($M) | 4,152 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 6,207 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 0.5 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 3.4 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 3.5 |
| Price to book value (×) | 2.5 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 28.9 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 11.8% of shares outstanding sold short, 4.5 days of average trading to cover, +9.6% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $4.5M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $46.5M |
The thesis
Delek US Holdings is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Its record third-quarter results, reported on 6 November 2026, were earned at peak summer refining margins, and fourth-quarter margin capture decides whether that earnings level holds.
The company reported net income of $1,133.8 million, or $18.22 per diluted share, and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) of $1,280.4 million. Adjusted earnings were $13.55 per share against $7.13 a year earlier, and sales of $4.39 billion beat the $3.92 billion estimate, per company news on 6 November 2026. Excluding the renewable volume obligation (RVO) adjustment and small refinery exemptions (SREs) granted in the quarter, adjusted earnings were $10.53 per share and adjusted EBITDA was $1,038.1 million.
The shares closed at $62.49 on 5 November 2026, the day before the report, and at $68.41 on 12 November 2026. The recovery followed a slide from the late-October highs, and the shares still sit below their 50-day average. The market has priced part of a margin fall already; the 9 November 2026 Citigroup target of $70 is close to the last close.
Bullish and bearish views on Delek US Holdings, Inc.
The bull case on Delek US Holdings, Inc. (DK), in brief: third-quarter earnings were a record. The bear case: the comparison is the peak.
Bull case
- Third-quarter earnings were a record. Refining adjusted EBITDA was $1,242.1 million against $697.4 million a year earlier, per the 6 November 2026 release. Benchmark crack spreads (the gap between crude and product prices) averaged about 191% above the prior-year quarter.
- Distillate supply stayed tight. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that U.S. distillate stocks fell 3.6 million barrels to 99.3 million in the week ended 30 October 2026, with refinery utilization up 1.7 percentage points to 94.5%, per Reuters on 4 November 2026. Low diesel inventories support refining margins.
- Operations landed inside guidance. Operating expenses were $226.4 million against the $220–230 million guided range, per the release. Throughput was 316,291 barrels per day, or 100.2% of crude capacity, per Finsee's summary of the report, against guidance of 296,000–316,000.
- The balance sheet has turned. Cash was $1,335.1 million on 30 September 2026, and the parent company excluding Delek Logistics (DKL) held $21.9 million of net cash, per the release. Management expects to repay the $850 million term loan in the fourth quarter.
- Capital returns and analyst support are rising. Delek bought back $50.0 million of stock in the quarter, expects up to $100 million in the fourth quarter and raised the quarterly dividend about 18% to $0.30 per share, per the 6 November 2026 release. Freedom Broker upgraded the shares to Buy with an $88 target on 11 November 2026, per company news.
Bear case
- The comparison is the peak. The 191% rise in crack spreads covers the summer quarter. Benzinga tied the 27 October 2026 refiner sell-off to Iran talks and new Russian diesel supply, and the EIA reported a 1.68 million-barrel U.S. distillate build in the week ended 16 October 2026.
- Earnings quality is lower than the headline. Adjusted earnings of $13.55 per share include the RVO adjustment and SREs. Without them the figure is $10.53. The release also shows an $86.3 million inventory adjustment in refining EBITDA.
- No fourth-quarter operating guidance. Finsee's review of the release found no fourth-quarter throughput or operating-expense range. The release makes no reference to the Tyler refinery expansion or the Defense Production Act, so funding, capacity and timeline remain undisclosed.
- Another refinery fault. Reuters, citing a Texas Commission on Environmental Quality filing, reported an equipment malfunction at the Big Spring fluid catalytic cracking unit on 6 November 2026, with Delek adjusting operations to cut emissions. A separate crude-unit malfunction there on 30 August 2026 and 31 August 2026 cut rates for about 12 hours, per OPIS.
- Insiders sold in September. SEC Form 4 filings show EVP Amber Russell sold 5,392 shares at $75.50 on 11 September 2026 and director William Finnerty sold 2,943 shares at an average $77.17 the same day. Director Vicky Sutil sold 6,397 shares at $71.50 on 4 September 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. Both prices are above the last close.
- Analysts are split on value. Citigroup kept Neutral and set a $70 target on 9 November 2026, close to the $68.41 close of 12 November 2026. Freedom Broker's $88 target is the one fresh bullish call.
Price setup
The shares closed at $68.41 on 12 November 2026, up from $62.64 on 10 November 2026 and $67.16 on 11 November 2026. The 3-month change is 5.0%. The close of $62.64 on 10 November 2026 is the low of the recent closes and sits below the 5 November 2026 close of $62.49 only by a narrow margin.
The 50-day average is $72.83 and the 200-day average is $54.27, both on adjusted closes as of 12 November 2026. The last close is above the 200-day and below the 50-day. The 52-week high is $82.27 (intraday, 18 September 2026), and the last close is 16.8% below it. The 52-week closing low is $26.68 on 20 January 2026.
The zero-coupon convertible notes priced on 24 September 2026 carry an initial conversion price of about $85.31, which adds potential dilution above that level. Sector attention peaked in late October, when Benzinga reported Marathon Petroleum up 190% and Valero up 165% for 2026.
Catalysts ahead
- ~18 November 2026 (est.): EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report. A distillate build after the 3.6 million-barrel draw of the week ended 30 October 2026 would extend the repricing of diesel margins; another draw would support them.
- ~25 November 2026 (est.): EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Gives a month of inventory readings against the third-quarter margin peak.
- ~2 December 2026 (est.): EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report. Shows whether distillate stocks, 13% below the five-year average in early November per Reuters, are rebuilding as refiners run near 94.5% utilization.
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): Fourth-quarter term loan repayment and stock repurchase window. Delek expects to repay the $850 million term loan and buy back up to $100 million of stock, which would show how much cash the margin spike left behind.
What would change the view
A daily close above $78.11, the highest close of the last 20 sessions (26 October 2026), would show the shares leading the S&P 500. So would fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share excluding the RVO adjustment and SREs above the $10.53 reported for the third quarter.
What it trades with
Delek moves with the large U.S. refiners. On 27 October 2026 Valero fell 8.4%, Marathon Petroleum 6.7% and Phillips 66 6.5% in afternoon trading, per Benzinga, and the CRAK refiners ETF fell 3.3%. Distillate crack spreads, weekly EIA inventories and Iran and Russia headlines drive the group together.
Delek owns the general partner and a majority limited-partner stake in Delek Logistics, so DKL's unit price and its raised 2026 EBITDA guidance feed part of Delek's value. Crude oil prices have moved less than refining margins in the recent sell-off, per Benzinga.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter net income was $1,133.8 million ($18.22 per diluted share); adjusted EPS $13.55 ($10.53 excluding the RVO adjustment and SREs); adjusted EBITDA $1,280.4 million ($1,038.1 million excluding them). Delek US third-quarter 2026 earnings release · as of
- Refining adjusted EBITDA was $1,242.1 million against $697.4 million a year earlier; consolidated operating expenses were $226.4 million against guidance of $220–230 million. Delek US third-quarter 2026 earnings release · as of
- Throughput was 316,291 barrels per day, 100.2% of crude capacity, against guidance of 296,000–316,000. Finsee third-quarter 2026 earnings review · as of
- Cash was $1,335.1 million; the parent excluding Delek Logistics had $21.9 million of net cash; Delek expects to repay the $850 million term loan and buy back up to $100 million of stock in the fourth quarter. Delek US third-quarter 2026 earnings release · as of
- Quarterly dividend raised about 18% to $0.30 per share; Enterprise Optimization Plan run-rate target raised to at least $250 million from $220 million. Delek US third-quarter 2026 earnings release · as of
- U.S. distillate stocks fell 3.6 million barrels to 99.3 million in the week ended 30 October 2026; refinery utilization rose 1.7 percentage points to 94.5%. Reuters report of EIA weekly data, 4 November 2026 · as of
- Citigroup kept Neutral on Delek US and set a $70 price target; Freedom Broker upgraded the shares to Buy with an $88 target on 11 November 2026. Benzinga and company news headlines · as of
- EVP Amber Russell sold 5,392 shares at $75.50 on 11 September 2026 and director William Finnerty sold 2,943 shares at an average $77.17 the same day. SEC Form 4 filings, 15 September 2026 · as of
Sources
- Delek US Holdings Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results · morningstar.com ·
- Delek US (DK) Q3 2026 earnings review · finsee.ai
- boereport.com ·
- Delek Big Spring, Texas refinery reports equipment malfunction at FCCU · rallies.ai
- Delek Reports Malfunction Involving Crude-Oil Unit at Big Spring, Texas, Refinery -- OPIS · bitget.com
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