NNE · Nano Nuclear Energy
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $14.60
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
23.9% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $14.60, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 43.3% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $14.60, a level over the 50-day average of closes, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again; so would a signed, funded reactor purchase or power contract replacing the non-binding frameworks.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Utilities
Quarter to 30 June 2026, filed 12 August 2026
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 0.2
- Gross margin (%)
- 29.1
- Operating margin (%)
- −7393.7
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 580
All filed numbers
What Nano Nuclear Energy reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 0.2 | — | 29.1 | −7393.7 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | Not reported |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −33.9 | −10.1 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 June 2025 | +34.3 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −23.6 |
| Capital spending ($M) | Not available |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 580 |
| Debt ($M) | None reported |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) no debt reported | 580 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 0.3 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 616 |
| Market value ($M) | 597 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) no debt reported | 16.6 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.0 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 32.0% of shares outstanding sold short, 7.8 days of average trading to cover, +2.8% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $9.2M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $103.6M |
The thesis
NANO Nuclear Energy's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The company has announced many non-binding agreements but reports almost no revenue, and equity sales remain available to fund it. The fiscal 2026 annual report and the business update webcast on 30 November 2026 show audited revenue and any further share sales.
The shares closed at $11.09 on 12 November 2026. That is 43.6% below the three-month reference close of $19.66 on 14 August 2026 and 72.2% below the 52-week high of $39.87 (intraday, 11 December 2025). The 52-week closing low is $9.63, set on 5 November 2026. The shares then closed at $11.11 on 6 November 2026 and $12.48 on 9 November 2026, and have fallen back since.
The market has priced a pre-revenue developer at roughly 28% of its December 2025 peak, and the 12 November 2026 close sits below both the 50-day and 200-day averages of closes.
Bullish and bearish views on Nano Nuclear Energy Inc.
The bull case on Nano Nuclear Energy Inc. (NNE), in brief: licensing has a formal path. The bear case: the large commercial deals are non-binding.
Bull case
- Licensing has a formal path. On 13 October 2026 the company said it and the University of Illinois are engaging with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) in its detailed audit and technical review of the KRONOS construction-permit application. The company's 12 August 2026 update put the NRC environmental assessment in the first quarter of 2027 and the safety evaluation in the third quarter of 2027.
- A construction partner is attached. On 27 October 2026 the company signed a memorandum of understanding with Hyundai Engineering to create a framework for KRONOS project execution and later fleet deployment. The announcement gave no value or timetable.
- One covering firm is positive. Wedbush initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and an $18 price target on 3 November 2026, according to a Stocktwits report. Needham's Buy target of $33 dates from 21 September 2026.
- Cash covers development work. The company reported $580 million of cash, equivalents and short-term investments at 30 June 2026, with no debt (fiscal third-quarter update, 12 August 2026).
- Fuel-cycle assets are being assembled. On 1 October 2026 the company agreed to buy Radnostix's NRC-licensed deconversion assets for $9.5 million in cash and $4.0 million in NANO stock. On 19 October 2026 the two companies filed a letter of intent with the NRC to transfer license SUB-1011.
Bear case
- The large commercial deals are non-binding. The 24 August 2026 Tillman Global Holdings framework targets 6 gigawatts or more by 2040 and is non-binding. The 25 September 2026 IP3 letter is non-binding and non-exclusive.
- Stock-linked terms follow the deals. The Tillman announcement included milestone-vesting warrants for up to $100 million of stock. The Radnostix purchase includes $4.0 million of NANO shares.
- Revenue is minimal. Benzinga reported fiscal third-quarter sales of $214,042 on 12 August 2026 against an analyst estimate of $456,667. The loss was $0.19 per share against an expected $0.27 loss.
- Price targets are falling toward the shares. Truist lowered its target to $19 from $22 on 22 October 2026 and kept its Hold rating. Wedbush's $18 target is below Truist's.
- Insiders have sold at much higher prices. SEC Form 4 filings show President and Chairman Jiang Yu sold 474,500 shares at an average of $17.46 on 1 September to 2 September 2026, and Chief Executive Officer James Walker sold 25,000 shares at $17.77 on 3 September 2026. Both sales ran under Rule 10b5-1 plans, which schedule sales in advance.
- Equity issuance can continue. A $400 million at-the-market sales programme sits under a $900 million registration statement that became effective 9 March 2026. The company raised $25.6 million net from it in the quarter ended 30 June 2026.
Price setup
The shares closed at $11.09 on 12 November 2026. As of that close the 50-day average of closes is $14.47 and the 200-day average is $20.66, so the shares sit below both and the 50-day average is falling toward the price from above.
The 52-week closing low of $9.63 on 5 November 2026 is the level that matters on the downside. Closes since then were $11.11 (6 November 2026), $12.48 (9 November 2026), $11.58 (10 November 2026), $11.59 (11 November 2026) and $11.09 (12 November 2026). The rebound to $12.48 did not hold.
The published kill line has not been crossed. The shares would need to close well above the 50-day average to show a change in direction.
Catalysts ahead
- 30 November 2026: Fourth-quarter business update webcast at 5:00 p.m. Eastern, after the fiscal 2026 annual report on Form 10-K. Shows audited fiscal 2026 revenue, any at-the-market share sales after 30 June 2026 and whether a binding, funded contract has replaced the non-binding frameworks.
- ~30 December 2026 to ~29 January 2027 (est.): Expected close of the Radnostix asset purchase. Needs NRC and New Mexico approvals; closing would add a licensed fuel-processing asset.
- ~31 March 2027 (est.): NRC environmental assessment for the KRONOS construction permit. On-time delivery supports the licensing path; a slip would weaken it.
What would change the view
A daily close above $14.60, a level over the 50-day average of closes, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again; so would a signed, funded reactor purchase or power contract replacing the non-binding frameworks.
What it trades with
NANO Nuclear trades with other pre-revenue advanced-nuclear developers. Benzinga linked the 21 August 2026 and 25 August 2026 rallies to broad moves in uranium and nuclear equities. Oklo's Groves test reactor reached first criticality on 6 August 2026, an industry event outside NANO's control. Wedbush's 3 November 2026 initiation covered Oklo and NuScale in the same batch, so sector sentiment and analyst coverage move together. NANO's own revenue is too small to anchor the price, so peer news, interest rates and power-demand headlines carry more weight than its quarterly sales.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- The company will hold its fourth-quarter business update webcast on 30 November 2026 at 5:00 p.m. Eastern, following the anticipated filing of the annual report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended 30 September 2026. Company press release, 11 November 2026 · as of
- NANO Nuclear and Hyundai Engineering signed a memorandum of understanding to create a framework for KRONOS project execution and future fleet deployment, with no value stated. Company announcement, 27 October 2026 · as of
- Wedbush initiated coverage with an Outperform rating and an $18 price target, in the same batch as Oklo (Outperform, $36) and NuScale (Underperform, $5). Stocktwits report on Wedbush initiation, 3 November 2026 · as of
- Truist Securities kept a Hold rating and lowered its price target to $19 from $22. Analyst note reported 22 October 2026 · as of
- Cash, equivalents and short-term investments totaled $580 million at 30 June 2026, with no debt. Fiscal third-quarter business update, 12 August 2026 · as of
- Fiscal third-quarter sales were $214,042 against a $456,667 analyst estimate; the loss was $0.19 per share against an expected $0.27 loss. Benzinga, 12 August 2026 · as of
- President and Chairman Jiang Yu sold 474,500 shares at an average of $17.46 on 1 September to 2 September 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. SEC Form 4 filed 3 September 2026 · as of
- The shares closed at $9.63 on 5 November 2026, the 52-week closing low, and at $11.09 on 12 November 2026. Adjusted daily closes · as of
Sources
- NANO Nuclear to Hold Fourth Quarter Business Update Webcast on November 30, 2026 · ir.nanonuclearenergy.com
- Malay Mail ·
- OKLO, NNE, SMR Stocks In Focus: Wedbush Picks Oklo, Nano Nuclear As AI Power Demand Fuels Bull Case, Warns On NuScale · stocktwits.com
- NANO Nuclear Energy Q3 Earnings Call Highlights · marketbeat.com ·
Related · shared themes
OKLO
Oklo
Oklo Inc. shares lean toward lagging the S&P 500 because its first Aurora plant still has no published cost and the company keeps selling…
XE
X-Energy
X-Energy's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: the NRC approved Dow's Long Mott permit on 9 November 2026, but the…
CEG
Constellation Energy
Constellation Energy's third-quarter beat and raised $12.50–$12.80 guidance make its shares modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P…
MIR
Mirion Technologies
Mirion Technologies' nuclear power orders doubled and backlog reached $1.25 billion, supporting shares that lead the S&P 500 from a weak…