SMR · NuScale Power
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $7.21
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
35.4% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $7.21, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 49.3% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $7.21, the 50-day average of closes on 11 November 2026, would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong; so would a signed, binding ENTRA1–TVA power purchase agreement.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 5 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 0.3
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −96.6
- Gross margin (%)
- 47.3
- Operating margin (%)
- −23067.6
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −608
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 933
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 358.9
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −31.8
All filed numbers
What NuScale Power reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 0.3 | −96.6 | 47.3 | −23067.6 |
| first filed | 0.1 | −99.1 | −202.7 | −85337.3 |
| first filed | 0.6 | −95.8 | 3.7 | −10181.2 |
| first filed | 1.8 | −94.7 | −3.4 | −4022.2 |
| first filed | 8.2 | +1635.2 | 32.9 | −6532.9 |
| first filed | 8.1 | +732.9 | 22.1 | −534.9 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −45.7 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −186 | −43.7 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +177.9 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −605 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 2.4 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −608 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 933 |
| Debt ($M) | None reported |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) no debt reported | 933 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −43.3% on a year | 0.6 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | Not reported |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 2,024 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,913 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) no debt reported | 979 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) no debt reported | 358.9 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 0.9 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −31.8 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 22.3% of shares outstanding sold short, 2.6 days of average trading to cover, +19.9% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $616K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $1.8B |
The thesis
NuScale Power's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 because the one document the case needs, a binding power purchase agreement (PPA) between its partner ENTRA1 Energy and the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), is still unsigned and has no date. A signed agreement would settle the case in the shares' favour. Year-end 2026 with no signature would leave the company without a customer and with operating losses continuing.
The shares closed at $4.82 on 12 November 2026, below the $5.44 close of 9 November 2026. They have given back most of the rebound from the $4.37 closing low of 5 November 2026. The 9 November 2026 gain came in a sector-wide nuclear rally with no NuScale news, per 24/7 Wall St. Company news since then adds no TVA progress. The only new item is a 12 November 2026 Rosen Law Firm notice about an existing class action.
What the price reflects: 24/7 Wall St. put NuScale's market value at $2.27 billion at the $5.44 close on 9 November 2026, against the $1.9 billion in cash and investments the company reported at 30 September 2026. The market gives little value to the reactor design or the TVA pipeline, and the price has fallen further since.
The rating is Low because revenue has nearly stopped, management gave no TVA date on 5 November 2026, and a signed PPA would cost NuScale cash before any module sale.
Bullish and bearish views on NuScale Power Corporation
The bull case on NuScale Power Corporation (SMR), in brief: the market value sits near the cash. The bear case: management offered no TVA date.
Bull case
- The market value sits near the cash. NuScale held $513.4 million in cash, $420.0 million in short-term and $930.7 million in noncurrent investments with no debt at 30 September 2026, per its third-quarter results. The 12 November 2026 close sits below the level at which 24/7 Wall St. measured a $2.27 billion market value.
- Spending is steady. The third-quarter operating loss was $64.8 million, and chief financial officer Ramsey Hamady said on 5 November 2026 that operating expenses "should remain fairly constant." Trefis reported third-quarter free cash flow of negative $28.7 million on 12 November 2026, against negative $316 million in the first quarter.
- No shares were sold in the third quarter. The third-quarter 10-Q reports no Class A sales in the three months to 30 September 2026 under the $750 million at-the-market program agreed on 11 August 2026.
- The design has moved into manufacturing. NuScale contracted Doosan Enerbility in October 2026 to build the upper reactor coolant system for its power module, per the 10-Q. The TVA framework of 3 September 2025 covers up to six gigawatts of NuScale-based capacity.
- Short sellers are heavily positioned. Short interest was 21.6% of float at the 15 October 2026 settlement, per MarketBeat. A signed agreement could force a sharp rebound as short sellers buy back shares.
Bear case
- Management offered no TVA date. Asked for a timeline on 5 November 2026, chief executive John Hopkins said "The process continues" and "It's been lengthy, we know," per the Motley Fool transcript. Analysts cited by 24/7 Wall St. on 9 November 2026 flagged that a TVA deal could slip into 2027.
- A signed PPA costs cash first. The third-quarter 10-Q shows NuScale expensed $507.4 million as the first ENTRA1 milestone payment, 15% of the total, on the non-binding framework. A second payment of 35% of the total falls due when ENTRA1 executes a binding PPA. The Motley Fool estimated that second payment at nearly $1.2 billion on 7 November 2026.
- A signed PPA is not a sale. "The PPA in itself is not the sale of modules," Hamady said on 5 November 2026. Module revenue needs a separate equipment supply agreement between NuScale and ENTRA1.
- Revenue has nearly vanished. Third-quarter revenue was $281,000, against $8.2 million a year earlier and a $10.146 million estimate cited by Benzinga on 5 November 2026.
- Share supply has grown. The 10-Q shows NuScale sold 89,727,165 Class A shares for $1.0 billion gross, at a weighted average of $11.14, under its 2026 at-the-market program, completed in June 2026. A new $750 million program has been in place since 11 August 2026.
- Several targets sit near or below the price. Citi cut its target to $3.50 (Sell), Goldman Sachs to $4 (Hold) and RBC to $5 (Sector Perform) on 6 November 2026, and Wedbush started at Underperform with a $5 target on 3 November 2026, per Benzinga.
- Litigation is building. A shareholder class action covering buyers from 13 May to 6 November 2025 alleges NuScale misled investors about ENTRA1's capabilities, per Rosen Law Firm's 12 November 2026 notice. A derivative suit, Harwood v. Hopkins, was filed on 28 October 2026, per the 10-Q.
Price setup
The shares closed at $4.82 on 12 November 2026, 82.6% below the quoted 52-week intraday high of $27.78 set on 12 November 2025. They are down 48.7% over three months from a $9.39 close on 14 August 2026. Trefis put the 2026 loss at 63.1% as of 12 November 2026, against a 12.0% gain for the S&P 500 (via SPY) SPY.
The 52-week closing low is $4.37, set on 5 November 2026, the day of the third-quarter report. The shares closed at $5.08 on 6 November 2026 and $5.44 on 9 November 2026, then slipped back to $4.82 by 12 November 2026. The 50-day average of adjusted closes is $7.12 and the 200-day average is $10.20, both as of 12 November 2026. The last close sits well below both.
Analyst targets bracket the price. On 6 November 2026, StockAnalysis showed a consensus of 19 analysts rated Hold, with an average target of $8.59, a median of $8.00 and a range of $3.50 to $19. Canaccord Genuity's target is $11 (Buy) and Cantor Fitzgerald's $15 (Overweight), both cut or held on 6 November 2026. Citi's $3.50 target is the only one below the 12 November 2026 close.
Catalysts ahead
- ~24 November 2026 (est.): Publication of short interest for the mid-November settlement. Shows whether short sellers covered into the 6 November to 9 November 2026 rebound or added, after short interest reached 21.6% of float at 15 October 2026.
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): Year-end 2026 with or without a binding ENTRA1–TVA power purchase agreement. A signed agreement would give NuScale its first committed customer path and trigger the second ENTRA1 milestone payment; an unsigned year-end would push the case into 2027.
- ~26 February 2027 (est.): Full-year 2026 results. Would show any second milestone payment to ENTRA1, any at-the-market share sales under the $750 million program and whether a module equipment agreement exists.
What would change the view
A daily close above $7.21, the 50-day average of closes on 11 November 2026, would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong; so would a signed, binding ENTRA1–TVA power purchase agreement.
What it trades with
NuScale trades with the other nuclear developers that have no revenue yet. On 9 November 2026, Oklo rose 13.97% and Nano Nuclear 12.33% alongside NuScale's 7.09%, per 24/7 Wall St.; Oklo was down 62% and Nano Nuclear 48% for 2026 at that point. On the session after results, Trefis reported Oklo up 23% as NuScale climbed from $4.37 to $5.08. Group moves can lift or sink the shares without company news. NuScale alone moves on TVA and ENTRA1 headlines, which is where its own case is decided.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- NuScale reported third-quarter revenue of $281,000, down from $8,242,000 a year earlier, and a net loss of $45.7 million. NuScale Q3 2026 results release, 5 November 2026 · as of
- NuScale held $513.4 million in cash, $420.0 million in short-term and $930.7 million in noncurrent investments, with no debt. NuScale Q3 2026 results release, 5 November 2026 · as of
- NuScale expensed $507.4 million as ENTRA1 Milestone Contribution 1 (15% of the total); Contribution 2 (35%) falls due on a binding power purchase agreement and is not yet recorded. NuScale Q3 2026 Form 10-Q · as of
- NuScale sold 89,727,165 Class A shares for $1.0 billion gross at a weighted average $11.14 under its 2026 at-the-market program, and none in the third quarter. NuScale Q3 2026 Form 10-Q · as of
- Asked for a TVA timeline, chief executive John Hopkins said 'The process continues' and gave no date for a definitive power purchase agreement. NuScale Q3 2026 earnings call transcript, Motley Fool · as of
- Citi cut its target to $3.50 (Sell), Goldman Sachs to $4 (Hold), RBC to $5 (Sector Perform), Canaccord Genuity to $11 (Buy) and Cantor Fitzgerald to $15 (Overweight). Benzinga analyst ratings, 6 November 2026 · as of
- Chief financial officer Ramsey Hamady exercised 20,000 options at $3.20 and sold 20,000 shares at $7.89 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. SEC Form 4 filed 5 October 2026 · as of
- NuScale shares were down 63.1% in 2026, against a 12.0% gain for the S&P 500 (via SPY) SPY. Trefis, 12 November 2026 · as of
Sources
- NUSCALE POWER Corp - Form 10-Q - FY2026 · sec.gov
- NuScale Power (SMR) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript · fool.com ·
- NuScale Power Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results · finance.yahoo.com ·
- NuScale Is Still Down 61% in 2026: Did Today Mark the Bottom for SMR Stock? · 247wallst.com ·
- Will NuScale Power Stock's Jump After Earnings Last? · trefis.com ·
- NuScale Stock Now Trades for About the Cash on Its Books. Should You Buy It Now? · fool.com ·
- NuScale Power (SMR) Stock Forecast & Analyst Price Targets · stockanalysis.com
- TVA and Entra1 to deploy 6 GW of NuScale SMRs · ans.org ·
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