OKLO · Oklo
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $32.73
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
26.9% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $32.73, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 45.5% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $32.73, the level of the 50-day average of closes on 11 November 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; or a published Aurora-INL cost together with a quarter of no share sales under the 11 September 2026 agreement.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Utilities
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 6 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 1.9
- Operating margin (%)
- −3816.1
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −452
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 1,644
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −9.7
All filed numbers
What Oklo reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 1.9 | — | −3816.1 |
| first filed | 1.2 | — | −6048.8 |
| first filed | 0.0 | — | — |
| first filed | 0.0 | — | — |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −41.6 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −165 | −41.7 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +25.4 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −144 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 308 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −452 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 1,550 |
| Debt ($M) at 30 June 2026, filed 7 August 2026; non-current long-term debt | 0.7 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) at 30 June 2026, filed 7 August 2026 | 1,644 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | 0.0 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 0.8 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 3,648 |
| Market value ($M) | 4,671 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 3,027 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.3 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −9.7 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 18.4% of shares outstanding sold short, 3.3 days of average trading to cover, +9.7% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $14.0M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $258.4M |
The thesis
Oklo Inc. shares lean toward lagging the S&P 500 over the next three months. Its first commercial plant, Aurora-INL, still has no published cost, and the company keeps selling stock to fund the build. A published plant cost and a quarter of slower share issuance would show this view wrong. The fourth-quarter 2026 report, expected around March 2027, is the next full test.
Two operating milestones arrived on consecutive days. On 11 November 2026 the Department of Energy (DOE) cleared the final operations hold point at Oklo's Groves Isotope Test Reactor (Groves-1), moving it into research, testing and training, per Benzinga and the company. On 12 November 2026 Oklo and Centrus Energy signed definitive multi-year contracts for high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) to fuel up to five Aurora powerhouses, with deliveries from 2029, per Mugglehead. Neither company disclosed the contract value or the size of Oklo's prepayments.
The shares closed at $25.86 on 11 November 2026 and $24.45 on 12 November 2026, the day of the fuel announcement. Neither milestone answers the cost question or the funding question. Meanwhile the company does not expect Aurora-INL to produce power before 2028-2029, and founder stock sales under Rule 10b5-1 plans continued at prices in the mid-$20s on 2 November 2026, per SEC Form 4 filings. The rating is Low for those two reasons.
Bullish and bearish views on Oklo Inc.
The bull case on Oklo Inc. (OKLO), in brief: fuel supply is now under contract. The bear case: Aurora-INL still has no published cost.
Bull case
- Fuel supply is now under contract. Mugglehead reported on 12 November 2026 that the Centrus contracts cover the first phase of the planned 1.2-gigawatt (GW) Ohio campus, future Aurora projects and later refueling of Aurora-INL. The deal makes binding a letter of intent signed on 18 June 2026. Meta's prepayment for future power supports the fuel purchase.
- A regulator cleared a working reactor. DOE cleared Groves-1 for unrestricted operations on 11 November 2026, per the company and Benzinga. It is Oklo's first facility allowed to run without operating holds.
- The third-quarter loss beat estimates. MarketBeat reported a loss of $0.22 per share for the quarter reported on 6 November 2026, against a $0.27 consensus. Revenue was $1.86 million against $1.03 million expected. TIKR put the operating loss at about $71 million, against $73.2 million in the second quarter.
- Cash covers this year's spending. Oklo held $3.13 billion of cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities at 30 September 2026, per its third-quarter release. It kept 2026 guidance at $120 million to $150 million of operating cash use and $400 million to $500 million of capital spending.
- Broker targets sit far above the price. On 9 November 2026 H.C. Wainwright reiterated Buy with a $90 target, Canaccord Genuity kept Buy and cut its target to $66, and Wedbush reiterated Outperform at $36, per Benzinga. MarketBeat's average target was $69.72 that day, from 1 Strong Buy, 12 Buy, 10 Hold and 1 Sell rating.
Bear case
- Aurora-INL still has no published cost. TIKR's review of the 6 November 2026 report says it gave no plant cost. The 12 November 2026 fuel contracts also left their value undisclosed, so the project's total bill remains unknown.
- The start-up window has widened. Earnings Whispers reported on 6 November 2026 that Aurora-INL start-up is now framed as 2028-2029. Management had repeated a firm 2028 target from the fourth quarter of 2025 through the second quarter of 2026.
- Share issuance keeps running. Earnings Whispers puts year-to-date at-the-market issuance at $2.3 billion at 30 September 2026, up from $1.9 billion at midyear. Oklo filed a second equity-distribution agreement, for up to $1 billion, on 11 September 2026. The fuel prepayments add a new use of cash.
- Broker targets are still coming down. Canaccord's cut on 9 November 2026 took its target to $66 from $100, per Benzinga and Defense World. Wedbush's $36 target, reiterated the same day, already sits closer to the share price than to the consensus.
- Grid access is blocked in two markets. Earnings Whispers reported on 6 November 2026 that PJM withdrew Oklo's Virginia interconnection application and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) dismissed Oklo's complaint. It also reported that the Ohio grid study is expected to take about 24 months.
- Insiders keep selling on schedule. Form 4 filings dated 4 November 2026 show co-founders Jacob DeWitte and Caroline Cochran each reporting a sale of 80,000 shares on 2 November 2026 at an average of $24.64, under Rule 10b5-1 plans. Chief Financial Officer Richard Craig Bealmear sold 16,727 shares at $25.55 the same day under a plan.
Price setup
The shares closed at $24.45 on 12 November 2026. That is 79.1% below the 52-week intraday high of $116.98, set on 12 November 2025, and down 44.9% over three months from $44.38 on 14 August 2026. The 52-week closing low is $19.20, set on 5 November 2026.
The 50-day moving average of adjusted closes is $32.43 and the 200-day is $50.89, both as of 12 November 2026. The price sits well under both, and the 50-day average is still falling toward the price.
Since the third-quarter report the shares have traded between a $23.55 close on 6 November 2026 and a $26.84 close on 9 November 2026. The two operating announcements on 11 November 2026 and 12 November 2026 did not lift the close above that range. A close back under $23.55 would erase the whole post-report rebound. StockTitan showed 22.8% of the float sold short as of 5 November 2026, which helps explain the swings of several dollars in two sessions. No earnings report is scheduled in the next 30 days.
Catalysts ahead
- ~1 December 2026 (est.): First business day of December, when founder Rule 10b5-1 sales have executed in most months. Form 4 filings in the following two business days would show whether scheduled founder selling continues at prices in the mid-$20s.
- ~1 March 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 report. The next chance for a published Aurora-INL cost, the size of the Centrus fuel prepayments, and the pace of share sales under the 11 September 2026 agreement.
What would change the view
A daily close above $32.73, the level of the 50-day average of closes on 11 November 2026, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500; or a published Aurora-INL cost together with a quarter of no share sales under the 11 September 2026 agreement.
What it trades with
Oklo trades with AI-power and growth stocks. TIKR reported that the shares fell 10% the day after the Democratic sweep rattled AI power stocks. On 6 November 2026 the rebound came alongside a 2% rise in the Nasdaq 100, which Benzinga reported followed the index's worst day since 2020. The Centrus contracts tie Oklo's fuel timeline to Centrus's new Ohio enrichment capacity, which Centrus said on 12 November 2026 backs $5.4 billion of customer contracts and commitments. Share issuance and scheduled insider sales add supply that other listed nuclear names do not carry to the same degree.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Oklo and Centrus Energy signed definitive multi-year HALEU supply contracts for up to five Aurora powerhouses, with deliveries from 2029; contract value and prepayment size were not disclosed. Mugglehead, 12 November 2026; Oklo and Centrus announcements · as of
- The Department of Energy cleared the final operations hold point at Oklo's Groves-1 isotope test reactor, allowing research, testing and training operations. Oklo announcement via Benzinga, 11 November 2026 · as of
- Oklo reported a third-quarter 2026 loss of $0.22 per share against a $0.27 consensus, and revenue of $1.86 million against $1.03 million expected. Oklo Q3 2026 release; MarketBeat · as of
- Oklo held $3.13 billion of cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities and kept 2026 capital-spending guidance at $400 million to $500 million. Oklo Q3 2026 release · as of
- Year-to-date at-the-market equity issuance reached $2.3 billion, up from $1.9 billion at midyear. Earnings Whispers, Q3 2026 review · as of
- Aurora-INL start-up is framed as 2028-2029, against a firm 2028 target repeated from Q4 2025 through Q2 2026; no plant cost was given. Earnings Whispers; 6 November 2026 earnings call · as of
- Co-founders Jacob DeWitte and Caroline Cochran each reported a sale of 80,000 shares on 2 November 2026 at an average of $24.64 under Rule 10b5-1 plans. SEC Form 4 filings dated 4 November 2026 · as of
- H.C. Wainwright reiterated Buy at $90, Canaccord Genuity cut its target to $66 from $100, and Wedbush reiterated Outperform at $36; MarketBeat's average target was $69.72. Benzinga analyst headlines; MarketBeat alert · as of
Sources
- Oklo signs Centrus fuel contracts for 2029 deliveries · mugglehead.com ·
- Earnings Whispers ·
- Oklo Publishes Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Business Update · finviz.com ·
- Oklo (NYSE:OKLO) Given "Buy" Rating at HC Wainwright · marketbeat.com ·
- Oklo Soars 16% as Narrower-Than-Expected Q3 Loss Sparks Rebound From Election Sell-Off · tikr.com ·
- Oklo Sank 10% a Day After the Democratic Sweep Rattled AI Power Stocks. Here’s What Friday’s Report Has to Settle · tikr.com
- OKLO Stock Price, News & Analysis · stocktitan.net
- Oklo, Centrus Sign Letter of Intent to Purchase Nuclear Fuel for Aurora Powerhouse Deployment in Southern Ohio · investors.centrusenergy.com
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