PL · Planet Labs PBC
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $18.07
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
23.6% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $18.07, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 43.4% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $18.07, over the 9 October 2026 close of $17.18 and the 50-day average, which would show the shares leading. Fiscal third-quarter revenue above the $105 million top of the guide would also point that way.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 31 July 2026, filed 3 September 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 116
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +58.1
- Gross margin (%)
- 56.6
- Operating margin (%)
- −11.6
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 24.7
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 417
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 12.0
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- 0.5
All filed numbers
What Planet Labs PBC reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 116 | +58.1 | 56.6 | −11.6 |
| first filed | 94.2 | +42.1 | 53.5 | −37.1 |
| first filed | 86.8 | +41.1 | 54.2 | −41.5 |
| first filed | 81.3 | +32.6 | 57.3 | −22.6 |
| first filed | 73.4 | +20.1 | 57.6 | −24.5 |
| first filed | 66.3 | +9.6 | 55.2 | −34.4 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −8.6 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −360 | −9.4 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 31 July 2025 | +18.2 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 118 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 93.0 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 24.7 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 865 |
| Debt ($M) convertible debt | 448 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 417 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +72.6% on a year | 299 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) +9.1% on a year | 753 |
| Receivables ($M) | 59.9 |
| Inventory ($M) | 8.9 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 564 |
| Market value ($M) | 4,966 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 4,549 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 12.0 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 8.8 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 0.5 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 10.2% of shares outstanding sold short, 3.3 days of average trading to cover, +10.4% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $2.7M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $43.1M |
The thesis
Planet Labs PBC, which sells satellite imagery and data mostly to governments and defense customers, is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Management guided fiscal third-quarter revenue to $101–105 million, below the $114.326 million estimate Benzinga cited, and contracted work shrank over six months. The company's fiscal third-quarter report, scheduled for after the close on 10 December 2026, settles whether revenue holds inside that guide.
The shares closed at $13.90 on 12 November 2026. That is 73.1% below the 52-week intraday high of $51.76 set on 28 May 2026, and the three-month change is −43.7%. A two-day rebound followed the 5 November 2026 close of $11.37: the shares closed at $12.55 on 6 November 2026 and $14.37 on 9 November 2026, and have drifted to $13.90 since. They remain below the 50-day average of $15.47 and the 200-day average of $26.10.
Bullish and bearish views on Planet Labs PBC
The bull case on Planet Labs PBC (PL), in brief: reported revenue beat expectations. The bear case: guidance sits under consensus.
Bull case
- Reported revenue beat expectations. Fiscal second-quarter revenue was $116.052 million for the quarter ended 31 July 2026, against a $104.118 million estimate cited by Benzinga. The company's release put that revenue up 58% from a year earlier, and management raised the low end of full-year guidance to $430–441 million from $425–441 million.
- Contracted work remains large. Planet's fiscal second-quarter 10-Q reported $753.1 million of remaining performance obligations, meaning signed work not yet recognized as revenue, at 31 July 2026. The company expected to recognize about 46% within 12 months.
- Launch capacity is being added. Planet announced a multi-launch agreement with Stoke Space on 9 November 2026 for missions on Stoke's reusable Nova rocket. Neither company disclosed the number of launches or the financial terms, and Stoke's first orbital demonstrations are planned from 2027.
- Government and industry recognition continues. Planet announced an evaluation task order under NASA's Commercial Satellite Data Acquisition Program on 21 October 2026 and a European Space Agency selection of its Sinergise subsidiary on 13 October 2026. On 11 November 2026 it was named Satellite Intelligence Platform of the Year in the GovTech Breakthrough Awards.
Bear case
- Guidance sits under consensus. The $101–105 million third-quarter guide published 3 September 2026 compared with a $114.326 million estimate cited by Benzinga. Revenue below $101 million would miss the guide itself.
- Contracted work fell over six months. Remaining performance obligations were $753.1 million at 31 July 2026, versus $852.4 million at 31 January 2026, per the 10-Q. None of the October and November awards carries a disclosed dollar value.
- Share issuance is ongoing. Planet sold 3,782,460 Class A shares for $122.4 million in gross proceeds through its at-the-market program in the quarter ended 31 July 2026. The program authorizes up to $1.5 billion, and sales after that date appear only in the next 10-Q.
- Insiders have sold into the decline. SEC Form 4 filings show open-market sales under Rule 10b5-1 plans, meaning pre-set trading schedules, by director Kristen Robinson (40,000 shares at $14.14 on 15 October 2026), director John Raymond (6,494 shares at $15.23 on 13 October 2026) and director Ita Brennan (11,500 shares at $16.30 on 1 October 2026). Co-founder Robert Schingler also gifted 55,000 shares on 4 November 2026.
- Analysts are cautious. Morgan Stanley maintained Equal-Weight and lowered its target to $19 on 19 October 2026. Barclays initiated at Equal-Weight with a $17 target on 9 October 2026. Both targets sit above the 12 November 2026 close.
Price setup
The shares closed at $13.90 on 12 November 2026. The 52-week closing low is $11.16, set on 21 November 2025, and the 5 November 2026 close of $11.37 came within a few cents of it. The shares have not closed above the 50-day average of $15.47 since the sharp decline began, and the 200-day average of $26.10 is far overhead.
The market already reflects a large reset. The three-month change is −43.7%, measured from a $24.69 close on 14 August 2026, and the shares trade at a fraction of the May high. Revenue beats on 3 September 2026 did not hold the price, because guidance and contracted work disappointed.
The 9 November 2026 rebound arrived with the Stoke Space announcement and a Benzinga headline listing Planet among large stocks moving higher that Monday. The shares gave back part of it by 12 November 2026. The overhang is supply from the at-the-market program, and the 10 December 2026 report is the next dated test.
Catalysts ahead
- 10 December 2026: Fiscal third-quarter 2027 results after the market close, with a conference call at 5:00 p.m. Eastern. Revenue for the quarter ended 31 October 2026 is tested against the $101–105 million guide, and the 10-Q shows whether remaining performance obligations held above $753.1 million and whether at-the-market sales continued.
What would change the view
A daily close above $18.07, over the 9 October 2026 close of $17.18 and the 50-day average, which would show the shares leading. Fiscal third-quarter revenue above the $105 million top of the guide would also point that way.
What it trades with
Planet trades with commercial space and small-cap growth shares, and its government and defense contracts tie it to national-security budgets. Benzinga's 31 August 2026 coverage of space funds named Rocket Lab and AST SpaceMobile as the holdings those funds keep adding. Sector headlines lifted Planet on 9 November 2026, but its own results and filings have driven the price more than sector moves since 3 September 2026.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Fiscal second-quarter revenue was $116.052 million for the quarter ended 31 July 2026, against a $104.118 million estimate cited by Benzinga; the company's release put it up 58% from a year earlier. Planet fiscal second-quarter 2027 earnings release; Benzinga · as of
- Management guided fiscal third-quarter revenue to $101–105 million versus a $114.326 million estimate cited by Benzinga; full-year guidance is $430–441 million. Planet earnings release; Benzinga guidance headlines · as of
- Remaining performance obligations were $753.1 million at 31 July 2026, versus $852.4 million at 31 January 2026. Planet fiscal second-quarter 2027 10-Q · as of
- Planet sold 3,782,460 Class A shares through its at-the-market offering in the quarter ended 31 July 2026, for $122.4 million in gross proceeds. Planet fiscal second-quarter 2027 10-Q · as of
- Planet will report fiscal third-quarter 2027 results after market close on Thursday, 10 December 2026, with a conference call at 5:00 p.m. Eastern. Planet Business Wire release · as of
- Planet signed a multi-launch agreement with Stoke Space for its reusable Nova rocket; the number of launches and financial terms were not disclosed. Company news; Stocktwits · as of
- Director Kristen Robinson sold 40,000 shares at $14.14 on 15 October 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. SEC Form 4 · as of
- Morgan Stanley maintained Equal-Weight on Planet Labs and lowered its price target to $19. Benzinga analyst headline · as of
Sources
Related · shared themes
SIDU
Sidus Space
Sidus Space is more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: on 12 November 2026 its restatement widened to eight reporting periods…
YSS
York Space Systems
York Space Systems' shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500: the 12 November 2026 report showed backlog of $581.0 million and a $749.7…
ARXS
Arxis
Arxis, a defense, space and industrial component roll-up, is modestly likely to beat the S&P 500 after 29% organic growth and a raised…
LUNR
Intuitive Machines
Intuitive Machines is modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over three months after record third-quarter revenue of $269.3…