ASTS · AST SpaceMobile
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $44.46
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
26.7% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $44.46, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 54.2% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $44.46, the highest close of the 20 sessions to 11 November 2026 (set 15 October 2026), which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong. So would a fourth-quarter report showing 2026 revenue above the $200.0 million top of guidance.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
The business · as of
AST SpaceMobile builds BlueBird satellites that connect ordinary smartphones directly to a space-based cellular network. It plans to earn money by sharing subscriber revenue with mobile carriers, and today also sells to carrier partners and government customers. Revenue was $42 million in the quarter to 30 September 2026 (10-Q filed 9 November 2026).
What is changing, and what follows · as of
- What is changing now
- On 9 November 2026 AST reported third-quarter revenue of $42.3 million, below the $46.6 million consensus, and moved its target of about 45 satellites in orbit to mid-2027 from the end of 2026.
- What follows for the company
- Spending runs ahead of revenue: capital spending was $1,550 million and free cash flow −$1,799 million over the four quarters to 30 September 2026, and diluted shares rose 10.0% from a year earlier.
- What follows for its customers, suppliers and competitors
- Engine supplier Firefly Aerospace (FLY) gains a contract worth more than $1.3 billion; carrier partners AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) wait longer for service; Globalstar (GSAT) and Iridium (IRDM) compete for satellite-to-phone traffic.
What the price assumes · as of
At the 13 November 2026 close (filed inputs to 9 November 2026) the shares trade at 60.0 times sales and 4.5 times book, for an enterprise value of $8,578 million and a free-cash-flow yield of −18.4%; EV/EBIT and P/E are not meaningful. That holds only if quarterly revenue, $42 million to 30 September 2026, grows many times over while the −398.6% operating margin turns positive.
Key figures from the filings · Communication Services
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 9 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 42.3
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +187.1
- Operating margin (%)
- −398.6
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −1,799
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 1,206
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 60.0
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −18.4
All filed numbers
What AST SpaceMobile reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 42.3 | +187.1 | −398.6 |
| first filed | 31.5 | +2626.6 | −944.1 |
| first filed | 14.7 | +1952.2 | −1014.0 |
| first filed | 54.3 | +2731.3 | −133.1 |
| first filed | 14.7 | +1239.9 | −540.6 |
| first filed | 1.2 | +28.4 | −6297.3 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −176 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −628 | −132 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +10.0 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | −250 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 1,550 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −1,799 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 5,299 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt plus current maturities | 4,093 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 1,206 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +295.3% on a year | 263 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 104 |
| Inventory ($M) | 79.0 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) including non-controlling interests | 2,163 |
| Market value ($M) | 9,784 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 8,578 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 60.0 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 4.5 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −18.4 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 21.9% of shares outstanding sold short, 3.2 days of average trading to cover, +1.6% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $619K | $3.1M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $806K | $451.6M |
Linked companies · as of
The thesis
AST SpaceMobile's shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. Third-quarter revenue missed estimates, the target of about 45 satellites in orbit has moved to mid-2027, and the next three satellites still have no launch date. Whether BlueBirds 17 to 19 ship by the end of November 2026, and whether BlueBirds 14 to 25 launch by the end of March 2027, will show if the deployment plan holds.
The rating is Low because nothing AST has reported since its 9 November 2026 business update puts more satellites in orbit soon. Light Reading reported on 10 November 2026 that AST has 13 satellites in operation and that the next three are still waiting for SpaceX to set a launch date. The company's news since then has been about funding and the Blacklift rocket, which cannot fly before late 2028. On 13 November 2026 the shares fell 5.5% to close at $32.60 with no company news, per MarketBeat.
The share price already reflects a long run of bad news. The 13 November 2026 close is 75.6% below the 52-week high of $133.86 set on 28 May 2026. StockTwits, citing Nasdaq data on 12 November 2026, reported about 67.5 million shares sold short, roughly 22% of the public float and the highest level in about two years. A common market view is that a short position this large can turn a firm launch date into a fast rally. That is the main risk to a lag call.
Bullish and bearish views on AST SpaceMobile, Inc.
The bull case on AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS), in brief: Japan funding avoids new shares. The bear case: revenue and losses missed again.
Bull case
- Japan funding avoids new shares. The 9 November 2026 update says the J-LEO agreement with Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, with partner Rakuten, provides about $1.0 billion of non-dilutive funding for manufacturing and launch.
- The balance sheet still shows net cash. The 10-Q filed 9 November 2026 shows $5,299 million of cash and short-term investments at 30 September 2026, against $4,092 million of debt. That leaves $1,206 million of net cash.
- Revenue is rising from a small base. Third-quarter revenue was $42.3 million, against $14.7 million a year earlier (8-K exhibit, 9 November 2026). AST affirmed its 2026 revenue guidance of $150.0 million to $200.0 million. Deferred revenue was $263 million at 30 September 2026, up 295.3% from a year earlier (10-Q).
- Nine satellites are due to ship by January. The 9 November 2026 update says BlueBirds 17 to 19 ship by the end of November for a Blue Origin launch, and BlueBirds 20 to 25 ship in December and January for launches in the first quarter of 2027.
- Some analysts still back the shares. Berenberg reiterated its Buy rating and $92 target on 10 November 2026 (Investing.com), and Citigroup reissued a positive rating the same day (MarketBeat). Analysts quoted by Benzinga on 11 November 2026 argued that SpaceX's wireless plans could make AST a more attractive partner for major carriers.
Bear case
- Revenue and losses missed again. Third-quarter revenue of $42.3 million fell short of the $46.6 million consensus, and the $0.44 loss per share was wider than the $0.40 estimate (Benzinga, 9 November 2026). The 10-Q shows a $132 million net loss for the quarter and $628 million over four quarters.
- The deployment target slipped half a year. On the 11 May 2026 first-quarter call, management targeted about 45 BlueBirds in orbit by the end of 2026. The 9 November 2026 update moved that target to mid-2027. Light Reading reported on 10 November 2026 that AT&T has not committed to a commercial launch date.
- Price targets have reset lower. On 10 November 2026, UBS cut its target to $43 from $78 and Bank of America cut to $45 from $80, both citing launch pace and execution risk (Investing.com). B. Riley cut to $48 from $65. MarketBeat counted 6 Buy, 8 Hold and 2 Sell ratings on 13 November 2026, with a $72.70 average target.
- Cash burn is large and shares keep rising. Free cash flow was −$1,799 million over the four quarters to 30 September 2026, with $1,550 million of capital spending (10-Q). Diluted shares rose 10.0% from a year earlier. The Firefly engine agreement, worth more than $1.3 billion over three years, is paid partly in AST stock (Devdiscourse, 6 November 2026).
- Operating costs are rising. Adjusted operating expenses rose to $133.6 million in the third quarter from $119.1 million in the second (8-K exhibit, 9 November 2026).
- SpaceX is adding spectrum. Benzinga reported on 11 November 2026 that the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) accepted SpaceX's application to acquire 546 Grain Management 800 MHz licenses covering nearly all U.S. residents, part of an $8 billion deal. UBS wrote on 10 November 2026 that SpaceX's wireless plans push carriers toward several satellite providers.
Price setup
The shares closed at $32.60 on 13 November 2026. Adjusted daily closes put the 50-day moving average at $49.70 and the 200-day at $73.62 as of that close, so the shares trade far below both. They are down 54.2% over three months, from a $71.14 close on 17 August 2026.
The 52-week closing low is $30.20, set on 5 November 2026. Since then, closes have ranged from $32.33 (6 November 2026) to $36.89 (9 November 2026). Neither the Japan joint venture nor the 12 November 2026 Blacklift unveiling lifted the shares above the $36.89 close. The shares fell 8.7% to $33.69 on 10 November 2026, the session after results. On 13 November 2026 they fell 5.5% on about 14.3 million shares, below the 16.8 million daily average (MarketBeat).
Returns are widely spread: the standard deviation of 63-session returns across US stocks trading at least $5 million a day was 27% in 2026.
SEC Form 4 filings show director Adriana Cisneros bought 10,822 shares on the open market at an average $57.22 on 31 August 2026. On 16 September 2026, Chief Technology Officer Huiwen Yao sold 40,000 shares at $58.93 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan, and Chief Operating Officer Shanti Gupta sold 12,000 shares at $58.89. Chief Accounting Officer Maya Bernal had 3,935 shares withheld for tax at $40.66 on 17 October 2026.
Catalysts ahead
- ~30 November 2026 (est.): BlueBirds 17–19 due to ship for a Blue Origin New Glenn launch. A missed shipment would be the first sign that the first-quarter 2027 launch plan is slipping.
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): SpaceX launch date for BlueBirds 14–16; six-satellites-per-month production target; BlueBirds 20–25 begin shipping. Shows whether launches and manufacturing can support about 45 satellites in orbit by mid-2027 and intermittent coverage for partners by the end of 2026.
- ~2 March 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter 2026 business update. Shows whether 2026 revenue landed inside the $150.0 million–$200.0 million guidance and how many BlueBirds are in orbit.
What would change the view
A daily close above $44.46, the highest close of the 20 sessions to 11 November 2026 (set 15 October 2026), which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 and prove this call wrong. So would a fourth-quarter report showing 2026 revenue above the $200.0 million top of guidance.
What it trades with
AST trades with the listed space group. On 10 November 2026, Benzinga reported Rocket Lab, AST and IonQ falling together. Firefly Aerospace, AST's engine supplier, reported on 11 November 2026 that third-quarter revenue rose 259% to $110.7 million and raised its 2026 sales forecast (Benzinga). Firefly's results did not lift AST's shares.
Interest rates matter for a company spending heavily years before subscriber revenue. On 10 November 2026, a hotter-than-expected October consumer price index (CPI) pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to 5% (Benzinga), and AST fell 8.7% that session. SpaceX is the main competitive comparison: its spectrum purchases and direct-to-device progress shape how U.S. carriers split capacity between providers.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $42.3 million, against $14.7 million a year earlier; the net loss before noncontrolling interest was $171.8 million. AST SpaceMobile 8-K Exhibit 99.1, third-quarter 2026 business update · as of
- Third-quarter revenue missed the $46.6 million consensus and the $(0.44) loss per share missed the $(0.40) estimate; 2026 revenue guidance of $150.0 million–$200.0 million was affirmed. Benzinga · as of
- Cash and short-term investments were $5,299 million and debt $4,092 million at 30 September 2026; free cash flow over four quarters was −$1,799 million. AST SpaceMobile 10-Q filed 9 November 2026 · as of
- AST has 13 satellites in operation; the next three await a SpaceX launch date and three more ship in November for a Blue Origin launch early in the first quarter of 2027. Light Reading · as of
- The J-LEO agreement with Japan's Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, with partner Rakuten, provides about $1.0 billion of non-dilutive funding for manufacturing and launch. AST SpaceMobile 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- UBS cut its target to $43 from $78 (Neutral); Bank of America cut to $45 from $80; B. Riley cut to $48 from $65; Berenberg reiterated Buy with a $92 target. Investing.com; MarketBeat · as of
- About 67.5 million AST shares were sold short, roughly 22% of the public float and the highest level in about two years. StockTwits via Yahoo Finance, citing Nasdaq data · as of
- The FCC accepted SpaceX's application to acquire 546 Grain Management 800 MHz licenses covering nearly all U.S. residents, part of an $8 billion deal. Benzinga · as of
Sources
- SEC EDGAR
- AST SpaceMobile D2D satellite launch target slips again · lightreading.com ·
- UBS cuts AST SpaceMobile stock price target on scaling delays · investing.com ·
- AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) Shares Down 5.5% - Here's What Happened · marketbeat.com ·
- AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) Shares Down 8.7% on Disappointing Earnings · marketbeat.com ·
- ASTS Short Interest At 2-Year Highs Ahead Of Blacklift Event · finance.yahoo.com ·
- AST SpaceMobile Unveils Blacklift Rocket Under $1.3B Firefly Engine Agreement · satnews.com ·
- Firefly inks $1.3 billion deal to supply engines for new AST SpaceMobile 'Blacklift' rocket · devdiscourse.com
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