SPCX · SpaceX
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $171.92
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
19.1% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $171.92, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 4.9% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $171.92, the 6 October 2026 close and the highest of the past three months, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. So would Anthropic signing an extension of its SpaceX compute agreements beyond mid-2027.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
The business · as of
SpaceX sells rocket launches, Starlink satellite internet to homes, airlines and governments, and AI computing capacity that it rents to AI labs from its own data centers, plus the Grok models from the merged xAI. Revenue was $14,575 million in the quarter to 30 September 2026, according to its 10-Q.
What is changing, and what follows · as of
- What is changing now
- On 12 November 2026 Drive Tesla Canada reported that Anthropic, SpaceX's largest compute customer, will not extend its agreements past mid-2027. Musk said on X on 11 November 2026 that the opposite will happen.
- What follows for the company
- Fourth-quarter capital spending is guided at $35–40 billion, against $19.6 billion in the third quarter. It is funded from $89,855 million of cash, while customers can cancel after early 2027.
- What follows for its customers, suppliers and competitors
- Nvidia (NVDA) supplies the GPUs. Alphabet (GOOGL) also rents compute. Tesla (TSLA) is a merger candidate, and Amazon (AMZN) competes with Starlink through Leo.
What the price assumes · as of
At the 13 November 2026 close (filed inputs to 22 October 2026): market value $1,735,397 million, enterprise value $1,683,403 million and P/B 9.8. EV/sales, EV/EBIT, P/E and free-cash-flow yield are not available. The price holds only if revenue keeps compounding from $14,575 million, up 161.4% from a year earlier, while the operating margin stays near 19.1% through record spending.
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 22 October 2026
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 14,575
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +161.4
- Gross margin (%)
- 62.4
- Operating margin (%)
- 19.1
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 51,994
All filed numbers
What SpaceX reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 14,575 | +161.4 | 62.4 | 19.1 |
| first filed | 7,814 | +91.9 | 55.3 | −1.8 |
| first filed | 5,576 | — | 51.5 | −4.9 |
| first filed | 4,071 | — | 43.9 | −23.8 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 4,014 |
| Net income ($M) | 4,404 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +324.2 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Capital spending ($M) | Not available |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 89,855 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 37,861 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 51,994 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | 17,520 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | 62,959 |
| Receivables ($M) | 4,772 |
| Inventory ($M) | 2,891 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 176,768 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,735,397 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 1,683,403 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not available |
| Price to book value (×) | 9.8 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 1.3% of shares outstanding sold short, 1.9 days of average trading to cover, −7.6% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $52.5M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $52.5Mand 1 trade without a stated price |
Linked companies · as of
This note mentions Anthropic, the company that makes Claude, the AI model that wrote it. The same method and sources apply as on every note. The conflict of interest, stated.
The thesis
SpaceX shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. Guided growth rests on compute contracts that its largest customer, Anthropic, can leave in early 2027. On 12 November 2026 Drive Tesla Canada reported that Anthropic will not extend those agreements past mid-2027. The first test is the 1 December 2026 billing start of a separate $1.11-billion-a-month hosting deal. The second is Anthropic's full contracted capacity, due in December 2026.
The rating is Low because the growth case depends on customers who can cancel. Elon Musk said fourth-quarter revenue should rise about 70% from the third quarter's $14.57 billion, Crypto Briefing reported on 6 November 2026. Anthropic's agreements can be cancelled on 90 days' notice once their non-cancelable periods end in January or March 2027, according to its SEC filing as reported by Drive Tesla Canada. The Anthropic report is second-hand. Musk replied on X on 11 November 2026: "I think the opposite is going to happen."
Starship Flight 15 launched on 13 November 2026 after the market close and had a split result. The upper stage reached orbit with 26 Starlink satellites, but the booster diverted to a Gulf splashdown and exploded instead of returning to the tower, Spaceflight Now reported. Neither result changes revenue before the fourth-quarter report.
On adjusted daily closes the shares ended 13 November 2026 at $139.11, down 4.9% over three months and just above the $135 initial public offering (IPO) price of 12 June 2026. Third-quarter revenue rose 161.4% from a year earlier, and the price has still not moved. That shows the market doubts how long the compute revenue lasts and how the spending gets financed.
Bullish and bearish views on SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.)
The bull case on SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) (SPCX), in brief: management guided above consensus. The bear case: the largest compute customer may leave.
Bull case
- Management guided above consensus. Crypto Briefing reported on 6 November 2026 that Musk guided fourth-quarter revenue up about 70% from $14.57 billion, against a cited consensus of $23.76 billion. It also gave a first-quarter 2027 revenue outlook of $33–37 billion.
- Margins widened sharply in the third quarter. The 10-Q filed on 22 October 2026 shows revenue of $14,575 million in the quarter to 30 September 2026, up 161.4% from a year earlier. Gross margin was 62.4%, against 51.5% a year earlier, and operating margin was 19.1%, against minus 4.9%.
- The balance sheet carries net cash. On 30 September 2026, cash and short-term investments were $89,855 million and long-term debt was $37,861 million. Backlog was $62,959 million, according to the 10-Q.
- The Anthropic commitment is large. Drive Tesla Canada reported on 12 November 2026 that Anthropic's SEC filing commits up to $120.5 billion to SpaceX compute. That is about $3.1 billion a month once all capacity is delivered.
- A second hosting deal starts billing in December. Chief financial officer Bret Johnsen said at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia conference on 10 September 2026 that SpaceX had closed a hosting deal worth about $1.11 billion a month, with billing from 1 December 2026, Tesla North reported.
- Large holders added in the third quarter. Benzinga reported on 13 November 2026 that Thrive Capital more than doubled its SpaceX stake in the third quarter. The stake was worth about $7.1 billion, 92% of the fund's reported portfolio.
- Brokers see upside. The Motley Fool reported that Stifel reiterated its Buy rating and $190 target on 9 November 2026, arguing that limits on data centers on the ground strengthen the case for compute in orbit. Morgan Stanley's target is $300, with a $75 bear case, The Motley Fool reported on 8 November 2026.
Bear case
- The largest compute customer may leave. Drive Tesla Canada reported on 12 November 2026 that Anthropic will not extend its agreements beyond mid-2027. Their non-cancelable periods end in January or March 2027.
- The new hosting deal may be short. The Information reported that the $1.11-billion-a-month agreement announced on 10 September 2026 is expected to run about six months. The customer has not been named.
- Spending is rising faster than revenue. Crypto Briefing reported on 6 November 2026 that fourth-quarter capital spending is guided at $35–40 billion. Third-quarter capital spending was $19.6 billion, according to the 20 October 2026 results release.
- Credit markets price record risk. ICE Data Services figures, reported by PANews on 5 November 2026, show SpaceX's five-year credit default swap (CDS) spread widened 14.6 points to a record 284.3.
- Shareholders have been heavily diluted. The 10-Q shows the diluted share count up 324.2% from a year earlier in the quarter to 30 September 2026. Most of that came from the xAI merger and the IPO.
- The Tesla merger faces political scrutiny. Texas's incoming attorney general promised "tremendous scrutiny" of a Tesla–SpaceX deal in a Bloomberg interview on 13 November 2026. Any deal would set how much new SpaceX stock is issued.
- The new booster has not yet returned safely. On 13 November 2026 the Flight 15 booster diverted offshore and exploded before reaching the water, Spaceflight Now reported. The Version 3 booster has not yet completed a return to the launch site.
- Insider shares can be sold from early December. Lock-up trackers reading the prospectus say up to 797.6 million shares become eligible for sale around 8 December 2026. A common market view is that large lock-up releases weigh on newly listed shares.
Price setup
On adjusted daily closes the shares ended 13 November 2026 at $139.11. That is below the 50-day moving average of $148.90 and down 4.9% over three months. The $135 IPO price is the nearest lower reference, and the shares have traded on both sides of it since the 5 November 2026 sell-off in AI and chip stocks.
The 50-day moving average is the first level overhead. Closes back above it would show the shares recovering from the November drop. The highest close of the past three months came on 6 October 2026 and marks the top of the range.
Stocks spread widely over three months: in 2026 the standard deviation of 63-session returns across US stocks trading at least $5 million a day was 27%, against 15% in 2017. That spread is why the rating sits near even odds instead of further from them.
Catalysts ahead
- 1 December 2026: Billing start of the $1.11-billion-a-month hosting agreement announced by the CFO on 10 September 2026. A start on schedule supports the case that contracted compute becomes billed revenue. A disclosed delay contradicts it.
- 3 December 2026: Tesla annual shareholder meeting, with a SpaceX–Tesla merger under discussion. Merger terms would set how much new SpaceX stock is issued. Texas's incoming attorney general promised scrutiny of a deal on 13 November 2026.
- ~8 December 2026 (est.): Up to 797.6 million shares become eligible for sale in the early-December lock-up release. This is the last large scheduled release of insider shares before Elon Musk's stake unlocks in June 2027.
- 9 December 2026: Cochise County Planning and Zoning Commission hearing on SpaceX's 6-gigawatt Arizona AI campus. Approval moves a campus of up to $50 billion forward. A delay or rejection would signal local resistance to the data-center build-out.
- ~31 January 2027 (est.): First Anthropic compute agreements leave their non-cancelable period (others in March 2027). From then on, either party can cancel on 90 days' notice. Any notice would confirm that the largest compute contract is shrinking.
What would change the view
A daily close above $171.92, the 6 October 2026 close and the highest of the past three months, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. So would Anthropic signing an extension of its SpaceX compute agreements beyond mid-2027.
What it trades with
The shares trade more with AI-infrastructure and neocloud stocks than with aerospace. They fell in the 5 November 2026 post-midterm sell-off in AI and chip stocks, and their compute revenue depends on the same AI-lab buyers. Reports on Anthropic's capacity plans, and on its planned listing, move SpaceX directly.
Tesla is the second link, through the proposed merger and Musk's political exposure. Starlink's airline business ties the shares to the contest with Amazon's Leo network. United's chief executive called Starlink a competitive advantage on 13 November 2026, while Delta chose Amazon Leo. Flight 15 launched after the 13 November 2026 close, so the first session to reflect it is 16 November 2026.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Anthropic reportedly will not extend its SpaceX compute agreements beyond mid-2027, per a second-hand account of an analyst meeting. Musk replied on X that 'the opposite is going to happen.' Drive Tesla Canada, 12 November 2026 · as of
- Anthropic committed up to $120.5 billion to SpaceX compute, about $3.1 billion a month at full capacity, with full delivery expected in December 2026 and non-cancelable periods ending in January or March 2027. Anthropic SEC filing, as reported by Drive Tesla Canada, 12 November 2026 · as of
- CFO Bret Johnsen said SpaceX closed a hosting deal worth about $1.11 billion a month with an unnamed customer, billing from 1 December 2026. Goldman Sachs Communacopia conference, reported by Tesla North, 10 September 2026 · as of
- Revenue was $14,575 million in the quarter to 30 September 2026, up 161.4% from a year earlier, with gross margin of 62.4% and operating margin of 19.1%. SpaceX 10-Q filed 22 October 2026 · as of
- Elon Musk said fourth-quarter 2026 revenue should rise about 70% from the third quarter's $14.57 billion; fourth-quarter capital spending is projected at $35–40 billion. Crypto Briefing, 6 November 2026 · as of
- SpaceX's five-year credit default swap spread widened 14.6 points to a record 284.3. ICE Data Services, reported by PANews via Phemex, 5 November 2026 · as of
- Starship Flight 15 put its upper stage in orbit with 26 Version 3 Starlink satellites; the Super Heavy booster diverted from its tower catch and exploded before an offshore splashdown. Spaceflight Now, 13 November 2026 · as of
- Stifel analyst Jonathan Siegmann reiterated a Buy rating and $190 price target on SpaceX. The Motley Fool, 9 November 2026 · as of
Sources
- Anthropic May Exit SpaceX AI Compute Deal Early, Elon Musk Says the Opposite Will Happen · driveteslacanada.ca ·
- SpaceX Locks $1.11 Billion-a-Month AI Hosting Deal Toward $100B ARR · teslanorth.com ·
- Musk says SpaceX expects Q4 revenue to jump about 70% and beat estimates by $2 billion · cryptobriefing.com ·
- Starship in orbit ahead of catch attempt, booster diverts to explosive splashdown · spaceflightnow.com ·
- Why SpaceX Stock Popped on Monday · fool.com ·
- SpaceX CDS Spread Hits Record High Amid Merger Concerns · phemex.com ·
- The Motley Fool ·
- SpaceX confirms 6GW AI data center campus plan for Cochise County · baxtel.com
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