Watchlist
SPT · Sprout Social, Inc
Last analysed ·
Against its published line
Nothing is through its line on this close.
How to read this
The red mark is the published kill line — the price that would prove the pick wrong. The dot is where the name closed on 18 September 2026; a dot LEFT of the mark has closed through its line.
Distance is drawn on a square-root scale, so close calls get the room. Past 8% a row stops competing and reads well clear, with a hollow dot to say the figure is off the drawn scale. Rows run tightest first.
Current thesis
Sprout Social's margin-led recovery thesis calls for a weekly close above the market's 2026-08-28 close of $11.49 before a weekly close below $9.50. Q3 results test whether revenue and operating income meet management's 2026-08-06 guidance.
Kill line
A weekly close below $9.50 breaks the recovery structure beneath the market's 2026-08-17 range of $9.53–9.96; Q3 revenue at or below management's $123.3 million guidance floor or non-GAAP operating income below its $17.5 million guidance floor would reject operating confirmation.
Pick status
Open commitment catalyst 2d agoscored if the kill line above fires How this is scored →Latest analysis and events for SPT —
As of 13 September 2026, the latest FrontierPicks analysis for Sprout Social, Inc (SPT): Sprout Social's margin-led recovery thesis calls for a weekly close above the market's 2026-08-28 close of $11.49 before a weekly close below $9.50. Q3 results test whether revenue and operating income meet management's 2026-08-06 guidance.
Kill line: A weekly close below $9.50 breaks the recovery structure beneath the market's 2026-08-17 range of $9.53–9.96; Q3 revenue at or below management's $123.3 million guidance floor or non-GAAP operating income below its $17.5 million guidance floor would reject operating confirmation.
Most recent dated event on file: — catalyst 2d ago.
Current Thesis
Sprout Social's margin-led recovery thesis calls for a weekly close above the market's 2026-08-28 close of $11.49 before a weekly close below $9.50, with Q3 results testing whether improved profitability survives. The 2026-09-11 adjusted close of $10.80 is below that August reference, so the price advance described on 2026-08-30 has partly reversed.
The narrative is maturing — an inference from the 2026-08-06 earnings reset, the 2026-08-19 Trellis release and the subsequent retreat below the August reference close. The identifiable operating test remains management's Q3 revenue guidance of $123.3–124.1 million and non-GAAP operating income guidance of $17.5–18.3 million, issued on 2026-08-06. Non-GAAP measures exclude expenses included under generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). Company earnings release
Bullish and bearish views on Sprout Social, Inc
The model's bull view on Sprout Social, Inc (SPT), in brief: Profitability improved alongside revenue. The bear view: Accounting profitability remains negative. Both cases follow in full.
Bull Case
- Profitability improved alongside revenue. For Q2 ended 2026-06-30, Sprout reported revenue of $123.8 million and non-GAAP operating income of $16.0 million, compared with $10.3 million of non-GAAP operating income a year earlier. These are reported improvements supporting the margin thesis. 2026-08-06 earnings release
- Larger customers contribute more revenue. At 2026-06-30, customers contributing at least $30,000 in annual recurring revenue (ARR) generated approximately $291.7 million of trailing annual subscription revenue, up 20% year over year. This provides an operating underpinning beyond the Trellis announcement. 2026-08-06 earnings release
Bear Case
- Accounting profitability remains negative. Q2 ended 2026-06-30 produced a GAAP operating loss of $2.7 million despite positive non-GAAP operating income. The distinction limits what the adjusted earnings improvement establishes. 2026-08-06 earnings release
- Analyst expectations remain divided. Morgan Stanley's 2026-08-13 target was $11 with an Equal-Weight rating; Barclays' 2026-08-11 target was $12 with an Overweight rating; KeyBanc's 2026-08-07 target was $7 with an Underweight rating. These dated opinions do not establish a common valuation conclusion. Benzinga analyst table
Setup & Price Structure
The supplied adjusted market series records a $10.80 close on 2026-09-11, a three-month price increase of 48.1% and a position 26.4% below the 52-week high. Those measurements describe a substantial recovery within a longer drawdown; they do not establish retail crowding.
The $11.49 close recorded on 2026-08-28 is the recovery checkpoint. The retained $9.50 thesis boundary lies below the market's $9.53–9.96 range on 2026-08-17, documented in the 2026-08-30 published note. A weekly close below $9.50 would invalidate this recovery case.
The analyst table available on 2026-09-13 still identifies Morgan Stanley's 2026-08-13 action as its latest listed revision. No dated moving-average distance, short-interest measurement or current insider-flow series is available in the evidence reviewed; positioning cannot be classified from the price advance alone. Benzinga analyst table
Catalyst Calendar (next 30 days)
- ~2026-11-04, est. Q3 results. MarketBeat estimates this date from reporting history; it is not company-confirmed. The report tests the revenue and operating-income guidance identified above and falls outside the immediate calendar window. MarketBeat earnings calendar
Elapsed catalysts
- 2026-09-18 — September options expiration. This calendar event was identified in the 2026-08-30 published note. It supplies a flow checkpoint, but the available evidence establishes no SPT-specific directional effect. (passed 2d ago)
- 2026-09-13 — Company-calendar verification. No company-confirmed event inside the next 30 days was verifiable from the accessible investor calendar. That is a disclosure limitation, not proof that no event will occur. Company events page (passed 7d ago)
What Would Change Our Mind
Loss of the August trading range would break the recovery structure: a weekly close below $9.50 is the observable price condition. Fundamentally, Q3 revenue at or below the $123.3 million guidance floor or non-GAAP operating income below the $17.5 million guidance floor would reject the operating confirmation required by this thesis; both thresholds come from management's 2026-08-06 outlook.
Conversely, a weekly close above the 2026-08-28 reference close of $11.49 would complete the stated price recovery. Q3 revenue above management's $124.1 million upper guidance boundary, alongside operating income meeting its guided range, would challenge the maturing classification with new operating evidence.
Correlation Notes
This remains a single-name margin thesis. StockStory attributed the 2026-08-28 move to an enterprise-software rally also involving Autodesk, Qualys, Rapid7 and Tenable, as recorded in the 2026-08-30 published note. That dated co-movement supports possible sector sensitivity, but the sample is too small to support a stable correlation claim or establish shared Trellis economics.
Notes
- Repurchase authorization announced 2026-05-07 covers Class A common stock only; the company carries a dual-class share structure.
- Headline FY2026 EPS guidance of $1.11-1.15 is non-GAAP; the company posted a GAAP operating loss of $2.7M in Q2 2026.
- Revenue is ~98% subscription ($121.9M of $123.8M in Q2 2026), so surprises land in forward guidance rather than the reported quarter.
- The product depends on third-party social platform APIs (Meta, X, LinkedIn, TikTok, YouTube); access and pricing terms are set outside the company.
- Trellis is included on every plan for every customer as of the 2026-08-19 release; no separate price, attach rate or ARPU contribution has been disclosed.
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