SPXC · SPX Technologies
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $168.13
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
7.9% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $168.13, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 28.9% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $168.13, the highest close of the 20 sessions to 21 October 2026 and above the 50-day average, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A restored 2026 HVAC segment margin guide at or above the earlier 24.50% low end would also show it.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 26 September 2026, filed 30 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 715
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +20.5
- Gross margin (%)
- 39.1
- Operating margin (%)
- 16.1
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 227
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −1,216
- Price to earnings (×)
- 26.0
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 3.5
All filed numbers
What SPX Technologies reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 715 | +20.5 | 39.1 | 16.1 |
| first filed | 679 | +22.9 | 40.2 | 16.9 |
| first filed | 567 | +17.4 | 40.7 | 15.5 |
| first filed | 637 | +19.4 | 39.8 | 15.7 |
| first filed | 593 | +22.6 | 40.4 | 16.4 |
| first filed | 552 | +10.2 | 41.4 | 15.7 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 106 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 298 | 81.9 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 27 September 2025 | +3.5 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 375 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 148 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 227 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 119 |
| Debt ($M) | 1,335 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −1,216 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +40.0% on a year | 124 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) −55.2% on a year | 153 |
| Receivables ($M) | 477 |
| Inventory ($M) | 423 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 2,445 |
| Market value ($M) | 7,757 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 8,973 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 3.5 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 21.5 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 26.0 |
| Price to book value (×) | 3.2 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 2.9 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 3.3% of shares outstanding sold short, 2.5 days of average trading to cover, −9.6% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $634K | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $634K | $19.9M |
The thesis
SPX Technologies' cooling business is growing fast, but a cut to its 2026 profit-margin guidance for heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) leaves the shares more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The fourth-quarter report, expected around late February 2027, settles whether labor and steel costs are easing or still eroding profit on each dollar of backlog.
The third-quarter report on 29 October 2026 was mixed. Revenue was $714.5 million, up 20.5%, and adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $2.21, up 20.1%, according to the company's 8-K. The 8-K raised 2026 revenue guidance to $2.745–$2.805 billion from $2.705–$2.765 billion and cut HVAC segment margin guidance to 23.10%–23.50% from 24.50%–25.00%.
The shares closed at $150.60 on 12 November 2026, against $217.32 on 14 August 2026, a three-month change of −30.7%. That close sits below the 50-day average of $169.91 and the 200-day average of $204.54. The market has priced in the margin cut; UBS, Oppenheimer and Truist still carry targets of $233 to $260 on the shares.
The published kill line has not been crossed.
Bullish and bearish views on SPX Technologies, Inc.
The bull case on SPX Technologies, Inc. (SPXC), in brief: backlog nearly doubled in a year. The bear case: profit guidance was trimmed.
Bull case
- Backlog nearly doubled in a year. HVAC backlog was $1,102.5 million on 26 September 2026 against $578.5 million a year earlier, per the 10-Q. Of that, $125.2 million came from acquisitions; backlog was $919 million at the second-quarter report on 30 July 2026.
- Organic growth stayed strong. HVAC revenue rose 35.5% to $525.0 million in the third quarter, of which 22.3% was organic, per the 8-K.
- Capacity plan is intact. CEO Gene Lowe said in the 8-K that HVAC expansion projects remain on track to support about $1.1 billion of annual data-center revenue capacity at full production. An Earnings Whispers summary of the call puts the 2026 data-center revenue outlook at roughly $450–$460 million, up from $430 million on 30 July 2026.
- A director bought after the drop. Brian Deck bought 3,000 shares at $164.34 on 3 November 2026 and 1,000 shares at $140.75 on 6 November 2026, per SEC Form 4 filings.
- Analysts hold positive ratings. UBS maintained Buy with a $245 target on 10 November 2026. Oppenheimer kept Outperform with a $260 target and Truist reiterated Buy with a $233 target on 2 November 2026.
Bear case
- Profit guidance was trimmed. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) guidance fell to $625–$645 million from $630–$660 million, and adjusted EPS guidance narrowed to $8.20–$8.50 from $8.20–$8.60, per the 8-K.
- HVAC margin keeps falling. Segment margin was 23.0% in the third quarter, down 140 basis points from 24.4%, per the 8-K, after a 260-basis-point drop in the second quarter. Management blamed labor, supply-chain inefficiency and input costs.
- Cash flow weakened and debt rose. Adjusted free cash flow was $23.1 million in the third quarter against $90.8 million a year earlier, as capital spending reached $40.0 million against $10.4 million, per the 8-K. Total debt was $1,334.7 million on 26 September 2026, up from $501.6 million at 31 December 2025.
- Target cuts followed the report. Truist lowered its target to $233 from $266 and Oppenheimer cut to $260 on 2 November 2026, after a cut from B. Riley Securities on 26 October 2026.
- The cooling-technology question is open. TIKR tied the September 2026 fall from above $230 to an Nvidia keynote mention of warm-water chip cooling. The third-quarter release does not address it.
Price setup
The shares closed at $138.54 on 5 November 2026, the 52-week closing low, and rebounded to $153.86 on 11 November 2026 before closing at $150.60 on 12 November 2026. The 52-week intraday high is $251.08 on 25 June 2026; the last close is 40.0% below it.
The 50-day average of $169.91 and the 200-day average of $204.54 (adjusted closes, as of 12 November 2026) both slope above the price. The $161.79 close of 26 October 2026, the last close before the report, has not been regained.
No earnings date falls in the next 30 days.
Catalysts ahead
- ~26 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results with initial 2027 guidance. Shows whether HVAC segment margin holds in the new 23.10%–23.50% range and how much data-center revenue management expects in 2027.
What would change the view
A daily close above $168.13, the highest close of the 20 sessions to 21 October 2026 and above the 50-day average, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. A restored 2026 HVAC segment margin guide at or above the earlier 24.50% low end would also show it.
What it trades with
SPX trades with other data-center cooling and electrical-equipment suppliers on headlines about chip cooling design, and sold off with that group on the September 2026 warm-water news. Its Detection & Measurement segment, with revenue down 7.7% in the third quarter and margin up 260 basis points, is an industrial business that follows broader manufacturing activity. Acquisition debt of $1,334.7 million makes the shares sensitive to interest rates.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $714.5 million, up 20.5%; adjusted earnings per share were $2.21, up 20.1%; GAAP diluted EPS from continuing operations was $1.62. SPX Technologies third-quarter 2026 8-K press release · as of
- 2026 guidance: revenue raised to $2.745–$2.805 billion; HVAC segment margin cut to 23.10%–23.50% from 24.50%–25.00%; adjusted EBITDA $625–$645 million from $630–$660 million; adjusted EPS $8.20–$8.50. SPX Technologies third-quarter 2026 8-K press release · as of
- HVAC backlog was $1,102.5 million against $578.5 million a year earlier; $125.2 million came from acquisitions. SPX Technologies third-quarter 2026 10-Q · as of
- HVAC third-quarter revenue was $525.0 million, up 35.5% (22.3% organic); segment margin was 23.0%, down from 24.4%. SPX Technologies third-quarter 2026 8-K press release · as of
- Third-quarter adjusted free cash flow was $23.1 million against $90.8 million a year earlier; capital spending was $40.0 million against $10.4 million. SPX Technologies third-quarter 2026 8-K press release · as of
- Total debt was $1,334.7 million, up from $501.6 million at 31 December 2025, reflecting acquisition financing. SPX Technologies third-quarter 2026 8-K press release · as of
- Director Brian Deck bought 3,000 shares at $164.34 on 3 November 2026 and 1,000 shares at $140.75 on 6 November 2026 in open-market purchases. SEC Form 4 filings filed 5 November 2026 and 10 November 2026 · as of
- UBS maintained Buy with a $245 target; Oppenheimer kept Outperform with a $260 target and Truist kept Buy with a $233 target (cut from $266). company news 10 November 2026; Benzinga analyst ratings 2 November 2026 · as of
Sources
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