SOPH · SOPHiA GENETICS SA

The thesis

SOPHiA GENETICS' third-quarter report on 3 November 2026 confirmed strong customer spending, but the company only guided FY2026 revenue to the upper end of its $94–96 million range, and the shares are still more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The fourth-quarter report decides whether growth, retention and a narrower loss justify a higher price.

The company sells AI-based software that analyses DNA sequencing data for hospitals, labs and drugmakers. Third-quarter revenue was $24.3 million, up 25% reported and 26% in constant currency, per the company's results release. Net dollar retention, which compares what the same customers spend with a year earlier, rose to 118% from 108%. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation and share-based pay) was a loss of $6.1 million, against $8.8 million a year earlier.

Management said currency moves late in the quarter would weigh on fourth-quarter revenue if they persist. The shares closed at $7.46 on 11 November 2026, 2.0% lower than three months earlier and 16.9% below the 52-week intraday high of $8.98 set on 27 August 2026. The price already reflects a company that is growing about 25% a year and reaffirmed its target of positive adjusted EBITDA in the second half of 2027.

Bullish and bearish views on SOPHiA GENETICS SA

The bull case on SOPHiA GENETICS SA (SOPH), in brief: existing customers spend more. The bear case: guidance was not raised.

Bull case

• Existing customers spend more. Net dollar retention was 118% in the third quarter, up from 117% in the second quarter and 108% a year earlier, per the 3 November 2026 release. Core genomics customers reached 551 from 488 a year earlier, with 30 new genomics customers signed in the quarter.
• Usage and the U.S. are growing fast. Analyses on the SOPHiA DDM platform hit a record 118,000, up 19%, and U.S. revenue grew 41%, per the 3 November 2026 release. Liquid biopsy analyses reached 4,200, more than double the prior year.
• Losses are narrowing. Adjusted EBITDA loss fell 31% to $6.1 million in the third quarter, per the release. FY2026 adjusted EBITDA loss guidance is $29–32 million, against $41.5 million in FY2025.
• Executives bought shares in the open market. Chief Executive Ross Muken bought 20,000 shares at $6.86 and Chief Financial Officer George Cardoza bought 20,000 at $7.06, both on 6 November 2026, per SEC Form 4 filings dated 9 November 2026.
• Pharma work continues. The release cites a multi-year AstraZeneca agreement covering two companion diagnostic programs and a new multimodal AI collaboration on bladder cancer.

Bear case

• Guidance was not raised. Revenue is expected at the upper end of the $94–96 million range, per the 3 November 2026 release, after an August raise from $92–94 million. Third-party data feeds carried a headline describing a raise to $96 million, which the release does not support.
• A currency headwind is flagged. Management said foreign-exchange moves late in the third quarter would weigh on fourth-quarter revenue if sustained. Constant-currency revenue of $24.4 million was above the reported $24.3 million.
• Per-share loss was wider than expected. Third-quarter loss per share was $0.24 against a $0.18 estimate, while revenue of $24.267 million beat a $24.035 million estimate, per a 3 November 2026 earnings headline. Net loss was $20.3 million.
• Margins are still slightly below last year. Adjusted gross margin was 72.8% against 73.1% a year earlier, though above the 72.1% of the second quarter. Reported gross margin was 65.7% against 66.3%.
• Cash is falling and insiders have sold. Cash was $93.7 million on 30 September 2026, down from $107.7 million on 30 June 2026. Five officers sold shares under Rule 10b5-1 plans between 5 October 2026 and 13 October 2026, per SEC Form 4 filings.

Price setup

The shares closed at $7.46 on 11 November 2026. That is below the 50-day average of $7.66 and above the 200-day average of $6.02. The 3-month reference close of $7.62 on 13 August 2026 sits close to the current price.

After the report the shares fell to a close of $6.62 on 5 November 2026, then rose to $7.14 on 6 November 2026, $7.49 on 9 November 2026 and $7.86 on 10 November 2026 before easing to $7.46. The rebound began on the day the two executive purchases were made. The 52-week closing low is $3.89, set on 20 November 2025.

Analyst targets cited by MarketBeat and Benzinga are dated before the third-quarter report and are not used here.

Catalysts ahead

• ~3 March 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results and annual report. Shows whether FY2026 revenue lands at the top of the $94–96 million range, whether the currency headwind hit fourth-quarter revenue, and whether net dollar retention holds near 118%.

What would change the view

A daily close above $8.92, near the August high, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500 again; or FY2026 revenue guidance raised above the $96 million top of the current range.

What it trades with

No current theme cluster carries this name. The shares trade with small-cap health care and genomics software, where sector selling can move the price without company news. The pharma work with AstraZeneca and Myriad Genetics links the business to oncology diagnostics spending, though the company does not break out a revenue figure for that work.