TXG · 10x Genomics
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $83.62
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
30.4% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $83.62, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 0.3% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $83.62, the 28 October 2026 close at the late-October peak, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. Fourth-quarter Atera shipments clearly above the roughly 50-unit plan would also prove the call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 6 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 151
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +1.1
- Gross margin (%)
- 75.0
- Operating margin (%)
- −10.7
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 93.8
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- 1.2
All filed numbers
What 10x Genomics reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 151 | +1.1 | 75.0 | −10.7 |
| first filed | 151 | −12.6 | 74.5 | −12.9 |
| first filed | 151 | −2.6 | 70.4 | −11.3 |
| first filed | 166 | +0.6 | 68.1 | −11.8 |
| first filed | 149 | −1.7 | 67.3 | −21.6 |
| first filed | 173 | +12.9 | 72.3 | 17.4 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −18.5 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −67.1 | −19.4 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +4.2 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 99.7 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 5.9 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 93.8 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 526 |
| Debt ($M) | Not available |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | Not available |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −4.6% on a year | 31.5 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) at 31 December 2025, filed 13 February 2026; +3.6% on a year | 34.4 |
| Receivables ($M) | 55.7 |
| Inventory ($M) | 64.6 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 838 |
| Market value ($M) | 7,612 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 9.1 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 1.2 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 9.7% of shares outstanding sold short, 2.6 days of average trading to cover, −17.2% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $12.6M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $18.8M |
The thesis
10x Genomics' shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months than to lead it. Third-quarter revenue grew only 1%, and analysts cut their targets toward the share price after the report. The case turns on the fourth-quarter Atera shipment count, measured against a plan of about 50 instruments.
On 5 November 2026 the company reported third-quarter revenue of $150.7 million, up 1% from $149.0 million a year earlier. It also raised full-year 2026 guidance to $625–635 million from $610–630 million (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1). Management lifted its 2026 Atera target to about 50 instruments from about 40, according to Seeking Alpha's report on the call. Instrument revenue fell to $6.9 million from $12.0 million, so nearly all of the year's Atera revenue falls in the fourth quarter.
The shares closed at $62.05 on 11 November 2026. That is 39.6% below the 52-week intraday high of $102.81 set on 6 October 2026, and below the 50-day moving average of $74.07, per adjusted daily closes. The close sits near MarketBeat's consensus target of $65.40, dated 9 November 2026. The price therefore already reflects the raised guidance and the 50-unit plan. The rating is Low because every analyst move after the report put targets at or near the price. The next hard Atera count only arrives with fourth-quarter results.
Bullish and bearish views on 10x Genomics, Inc.
The bull case on 10x Genomics, Inc. (TXG), in brief: guidance rose again. The bear case: total growth is about 1%.
Bull case
- Guidance rose again. On 5 November 2026 the company raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $625–635 million from $610–630 million. Excluding settlement and royalty income, the release implies 4%–6% growth over 2025.
- The Atera plan grew. Coverage of the 5 November 2026 call reports that management now expects about 50 Atera shipments in 2026, up from about 40. The company said on 29 September 2026 that booked orders had already exceeded the earlier 40-unit plan.
- Margins and losses improved. Third-quarter gross margin was 75%, against 67% a year earlier. The operating loss narrowed to $16.1 million from $32.2 million (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1). MarketBeat reported a loss of $0.15 per share against a consensus loss of $0.27.
- Cash is rising. Cash and marketable securities were $575.7 million at 30 September 2026, up from $552.0 million at 30 June 2026, per the same release.
- Xenium won a clinical study. Company news on 10 November 2026 said Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center and Shanghai Precision Diagnostics will use the Xenium platform in a 24-month breast cancer biomarker trial.
- Two buy-rated firms target above the price. Barclays (Overweight) set $70 on 9 November 2026, per MarketBeat. Stifel (Buy) raised its target to $68 on 6 November 2026, per Benzinga.
Bear case
- Total growth is about 1%. Third-quarter revenue rose 1% year over year. Instrument revenue fell to $6.9 million from $12.0 million, while consumables rose to $134.3 million from $127.9 million (Form 8-K, Exhibit 99.1).
- Targets were cut after the report. Barclays cut its target to $70 from $110 on 9 November 2026, per MarketBeat. JPMorgan (Neutral) lowered its target to $65 the same day, per Benzinga. UBS (Neutral) lowered its target to $61 on 6 November 2026.
- Most analysts rate the shares Hold. MarketBeat counted 5 Buy, 12 Hold and 1 Sell ratings on 9 November 2026. A 11 November 2026 headline reported Stephens covering the shares at Hold, after Defense World reported a Stephens downgrade to Equal Weight on 23 October 2026.
- Fourth-quarter margin is expected to ease. Coverage of the 5 November 2026 call reports that management expects fourth-quarter gross margin to step down on Atera mix. That would give back part of the third quarter's 75%.
- Capacity limits the ramp. On the 5 November 2026 call, management named manufacturing scale-up and installation and training capacity as the constraints on Atera placements. Only a couple of units were in third-quarter revenue.
- Insiders sold into the rally. SEC Form 4 filings show Chief Executive Serge Saxonov sold 25,000 shares at an average of $81.22 on 22 September 2026, under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. Chief Financial Officer Adam Taich sold 46,388 shares at an average of $64.57 on 9 September 2026.
Price setup
The shares fell from a $67.52 close on 4 November 2026 to $58.06 on 5 November 2026, the day of the after-close release. StockStory reported a further after-hours drop of about 10% to $52.18 that evening. The shares then closed at $59.28 on 6 November 2026, $65.05 on 9 November 2026 and $62.05 on 11 November 2026.
The price sits between its two long averages. The 50-day moving average of $74.07 is above the 11 November 2026 close, and the 200-day moving average of $42.20 is below it, per adjusted daily closes. The 3-month change is 6.7%, measured from a $58.15 close on 13 August 2026. The 52-week closing low was $15.46 on 12 December 2025. The shares have given back most of the October run to the $102.81 intraday high, but they hold most of the year's gain.
The late-October closing highs are the level that matters for this call. A recovery back through them would show the market paying for Atera delivery beyond the plan already in guidance. Management's fireside chat on 17 November 2026 is the next scheduled update.
Catalysts ahead
- 17 November 2026: Fireside chat at the Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference in London, 4:30 p.m. GMT. This is management's first scheduled update after the report. Comments on Atera installation capacity and fourth-quarter shipments show whether the roughly 50-unit plan is on track.
- ~January 2027 (est.): Possible preliminary fourth-quarter 2026 results around the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference. The company released preliminary fourth-quarter 2025 results in January 2026. A repeat would give the first Atera count and revenue against the $625–635 million guide.
- ~February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results. Reports the actual Atera shipments against the roughly 50-unit plan, fourth-quarter gross margin, and the first 2027 outlook.
What would change the view
A daily close above $83.62, the 28 October 2026 close at the late-October peak, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. Fourth-quarter Atera shipments clearly above the roughly 50-unit plan would also prove the call wrong.
What it trades with
10x Genomics trades with life-science tools peers such as Illumina and Pacific Biosciences. Academic and biopharma research budgets drive demand for its consumables, which were $134.3 million of the $150.7 million third-quarter revenue. Its shares therefore follow news on research funding more than the wider market does. Qiagen's Parse Biosciences is a patent-litigation counterparty: an August 2026 jury awarded 10x Genomics $4.8 million.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 revenue was $150.7 million, up 1% from $149.0 million; consumables $134.3 million versus $127.9 million; instruments $6.9 million versus $12.0 million. Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Gross margin was 75% versus 67% a year earlier; operating loss $16.1 million versus $32.2 million; cash and marketable securities $575.7 million at 30 September 2026. Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Full-year 2026 revenue guidance was raised to $625–635 million from $610–630 million; excluding settlement and royalty income it implies 4%–6% growth over 2025. Q3 2026 results, Form 8-K Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Management raised expected 2026 Atera shipments to about 50 instruments from about 40; third-quarter revenue included a couple of Atera units. Seeking Alpha report on the Q3 2026 call · as of
- Barclays cut its target to $70 from $110 and kept an Overweight rating; MarketBeat's consensus was Hold (5 Buy, 12 Hold, 1 Sell) with an average target of $65.40. MarketBeat, 9 November 2026 · as of
- JPMorgan kept a Neutral rating and lowered its target to $65; UBS (Neutral) lowered its target to $61 and Stifel (Buy) raised its target to $68 on 6 November 2026. Benzinga analyst-action headlines · as of
- Chief Executive Serge Saxonov sold 25,000 shares at an average of $81.22 on 22 September 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. SEC Form 4 filed 24 September 2026 · as of
- Xenium will be deployed by Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center and Shanghai Precision Diagnostics in a 24-month breast cancer biomarker trial. 10x Genomics company announcement, 10 November 2026 · as of
Sources
- 10x Genomics, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- 10x Genomics forecasts $625M-$635M 2026 revenue as it targets ~50 Atera shipments by year-end · seekingalpha.com
- 10x Genomics (NASDAQ:TXG) Price Target Cut to $70.00 by Analysts at Barclays · marketbeat.com ·
- 10x Genomics to Participate in the 2026 Jefferies Global Healthcare Conference · finviz.com
- 10x Genomics's (NASDAQ:TXG) Q3 2026 sales top estimates but stock drops · finance.yahoo.com
- 10x Genomics Inc (TXG) (Q3 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Atera Launch Takes Flight as Revenue Outlook Climbs · gurufocus.com
- 10x Genomics (NASDAQ:TXG) Stock Keeps "Equal Weight" Rating at Stephens · defenseworld.net ·
- 10x Genomics Announces Preliminary Select Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results · investors.10xgenomics.com
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