ITGR · Integer Holdings
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $133.01
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
4.7% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $133.01, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are up 1.3% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $133.01, which is over KKR's $127.00 cash price and would show the market expecting a competing or higher offer and the shares leading the S&P 500. A rival offer above $127.00 would also show the call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Health Care
Quarter to 2 October 2026, filed 29 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 450
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −3.9
- Gross margin (%)
- 22.6
- Operating margin (%)
- 6.3
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 81.8
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −1,205
- Price to earnings (×)
- 41.5
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 3.0
All filed numbers
What Integer Holdings reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 450 | −3.9 | 22.6 | 6.3 |
| first filed | 464 | −2.6 | 24.3 | 7.4 |
| first filed | 440 | +0.5 | 24.9 | 7.2 |
| first filed | 472 | +5.0 | 26.4 | 11.8 |
| first filed | 468 | +8.4 | 27.0 | 12.1 |
| first filed | 477 | +11.4 | 27.1 | 12.5 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 17.5 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 104 | 15.0 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 26 September 2025 | −2.8 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 177 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 94.7 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 81.8 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 14.1 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 1,219 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −1,205 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +53.2% on a year | 7.9 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 345 |
| Inventory ($M) | 279 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 1,726 |
| Market value ($M) | 4,308 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 5,513 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 3.0 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 36.6 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 41.5 |
| Price to book value (×) | 2.5 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 1.9 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 9.6% of shares outstanding sold short, 3.7 days of average trading to cover, +3.6% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $5.2M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $5.2M |
The thesis
Integer Holdings Corporation's shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months, because KKR's $127.00-per-share cash takeover price caps what a holder can receive. The company's year-end 2026 closing target, and the regulatory approvals still required, settle the outcome.
The shares closed at $126.42 on 12 November 2026, below the $127.00 price. Stockholders approved the merger on 21 October 2026, with about 99.95% of votes cast in favor, equal to about 76.66% of shares outstanding at the record date. Integer's third-quarter release on 29 October 2026 again said the company expects to close by the end of 2026, subject to remaining customary conditions that include required regulatory approvals. The market has priced in completion: the shares closed between $126.42 and $126.75 in each of the six sessions from 5 November to 12 November 2026, after a weak third-quarter report.
Bullish and bearish views on Integer Holdings Corporation
The bull case on Integer Holdings Corporation (ITGR), in brief: shareholders have approved the deal. The bear case: the gain is capped at $127.00.
Bull case
- Shareholders have approved the deal. The 21 October 2026 vote carried about 99.95% of votes cast. The largest closing condition outside regulators is cleared.
- U.S. antitrust review is finished. Integer announced on 30 September 2026 that the Hart-Scott-Rodino waiting period ended early. That removed the risk of a lengthy second request.
- Financing is committed. The 3 August 2026 announcement puts the enterprise value at about $5.7 billion, with committed financing and no financing condition. Transaction announcement
- The company reaffirmed the timetable. The 29 October 2026 results release repeated that the deal is expected to close by the end of 2026. Third-quarter 2026 release
- Insiders have sold at the deal price. SEC Form 4 filings show the Chief Human Resources Officer sold 31,540 shares at an average of $126.24 on 14 September 2026 and 15 September 2026, and the President of Growth & Innovation sold 9,408 shares at $126.30 on 8 September 2026. Neither filing shows an insider expecting a higher price.
Bear case
- The gain is capped at $127.00. The agreement fixes the payment in cash. The shares cannot rise above it unless a higher offer appears, and a rising S&P 500 over three months would beat that payout.
- Some regulatory approvals remain. The 29 October 2026 release still lists required regulatory approvals as a closing condition without naming the remaining regulators. A slip past 31 December 2026 would stretch the wait for the cash.
- The standalone business weakened. Quarterly revenue in the 10-Q filed 29 October 2026 was $449.66 million against $467.69 million a year earlier. Integer's release reported adjusted diluted earnings per share down 25% to $1.34 and gave no outlook. If the deal failed, no company forecast would anchor the price.
- Analyst coverage adds little. StoneX reiterated a Hold rating on 3 November 2026. A rating on a stock priced to a fixed cash payment carries little information.
Price setup
The shares closed at $126.42 on 12 November 2026. The 52-week intraday high is $126.83, set on 20 October 2026, so the last close is 0.3% below it. The 52-week closing low is $67.10, on 17 November 2025.
The adjusted 50-day average is $126.44 and the 200-day average is $102.64, both as of 12 November 2026. The close sits just under the 50-day average. The 3-month price change is 0.9%, against a reference close of $125.26 on 14 August 2026.
The price tracks the odds and timing of completion. The third-quarter report on 29 October 2026 did not move it: the closes from 5 November to 12 November 2026 ranged from $126.42 to $126.75. A market pricing real deal risk would show a wider discount to $127.00. The next dated event is the company's year-end closing target.
Catalysts ahead
- ~31 December 2026 (est.): Company-guided closing target for the KKR transaction, reaffirmed in the 29 October 2026 results release. Passing this date without a close or a new target would mean the deal has slipped.
- 2 May 2027: Outside date under the merger agreement. After this date either party may terminate, and termination fees can apply depending on the cause.
What would change the view
A daily close above $133.01, which is over KKR's $127.00 cash price and would show the market expecting a competing or higher offer and the shares leading the S&P 500. A rival offer above $127.00 would also show the call wrong.
What it trades with
The shares move with deal-completion odds and with interest rates, which set the cost of waiting for the cash payment. Medical-device peers and the broad market matter less. A failed regulatory review or a financing problem at KKR would be the events that tie the shares back to medical-device valuations.
The evidence, claim by claim (7)
- Third-quarter 2026 quarterly revenue was $449.66 million, against $467.69 million in the same quarter a year earlier; adjusted diluted earnings per share fell 25% to $1.34 and the company gave no outlook. Integer Holdings 10-Q filed 29 October 2026 and third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Integer said it expects the KKR transaction to close by the end of 2026, subject to remaining customary conditions including required regulatory approvals. Integer Holdings third-quarter 2026 results release · as of
- Stockholders approved the merger at the 21 October 2026 special meeting with about 99.95% of votes cast, equal to about 76.66% of shares outstanding at the record date. Integer Holdings press release, 21 October 2026 · as of
- Integer announced early termination of the Hart-Scott-Rodino antitrust waiting period. Integer Holdings 8-K, Exhibit 99.1, 30 September 2026 · as of
- KKR agreed to acquire Integer for $127.00 per share in cash, an enterprise value of about $5.7 billion, with committed financing and no financing condition. Integer Holdings 8-K, Exhibit 99.1, 3 August 2026 · as of
- The Chief Human Resources Officer sold 31,540 shares at an average of $126.24 on 14 September to 15 September 2026. SEC Form 4 filed 16 September 2026 · as of
- StoneX reiterated its Hold rating on Integer Holdings. StoneX rating news item, 3 November 2026 · as of
Sources
- Integer Holdings Corporation Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results · investor.integer.net
- Integer Holdings Corp - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov
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