GPN · Global Payments
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $86
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
6.9% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $86.00, on record since 10 November 2026. The shares are up 2.0% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $86, just under the 50-day moving average, which would show the market has priced out most of the takeover premium added since 30 October 2026; or confirmation that the CD&R and GTCR talks have ended.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Industrials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 5 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 3,306
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +63.7
- Gross margin (%)
- 60.8
- Operating margin (%)
- 7.4
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- −169
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −17,045
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- −0.7
All filed numbers
What Global Payments reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 3,306 | +63.7 | 60.8 | 7.4 |
| first filed | 3,321 | +68.6 | 61.0 | 10.2 |
| first filed | 2,970 | +63.1 | 57.1 | −0.5 |
| first filed restated | 2,020 | — | 72.3 | 38.3 |
| first filed restated | 1,969 | — | 74.5 | 20.0 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 4.1 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −1,289 | 281 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +10.4 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 728 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 897 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | −169 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 5,570 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt | 22,615 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −17,045 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +7.9% on a year | 225 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) +16.7% on a year | 860 |
| Receivables ($M) | 1,614 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 23,136 |
| Market value ($M) | 24,320 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 41,365 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.1 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | −0.7 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 5.5% of shares outstanding sold short, 7.5 days of average trading to cover, −2.7% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $1.2M | $1.1M |
The thesis
Global Payments trades on a reported $40 billion take-private by Clayton, Dubilier & Rice (CD&R) and GTCR, and on in-line third-quarter results that sent nine brokers to higher price targets between 6 November 2026 and 11 November 2026. The case is modestly positive. A signed agreement at a premium, or word that the talks have ended, settles it.
The shares closed at $100.23 on 11 November 2026, after a record close of $101.59 on 10 November 2026 and an intraday 52-week high of $102.91 that day. Both are above the $96.84 close on 30 October 2026, the day the Financial Times (FT) first reported the talks. Company news through 11 November 2026 shows no agreement and no comment from any party. The move since 5 November 2026 has come with target increases, not with deal news.
The market now prices a business near what its neutral-rated analysts call full value without a deal. Bernstein (Market Perform) and JPMorgan (Neutral) both have $100 targets, and Barclays (Equal-Weight) is at $97. The case for the shares to lead from here therefore rests on the buyout or on the higher targets from Overweight and Outperform holders. The rating is Medium because the adjusted outlook held, synergy targets rose and a deal remains possible. The thin reported deal price and the debt are the weak points.
Bullish and bearish views on Global Payments, Inc.
The bull case on Global Payments, Inc. (GPN), in brief: target increases kept coming after the report. The bear case: the reported price looks thin.
Bull case
- Target increases kept coming after the report. Mizuho raised its target to $115 from $110 at Outperform on 10 November 2026 (Benzinga; Investing.com). Bernstein moved to $100 from $86 on 11 November 2026, and Cantor Fitzgerald to $103 from $91 on 9 November 2026 (Benzinga). Wells Fargo ($116) and KeyBanc ($112) raised theirs on 6 November 2026 (MarketBeat).
- The adjusted outlook held. On 5 November 2026 the company reaffirmed 4% to 5% normalized constant-currency revenue growth, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $13.60 to $13.80 and more than $2 billion of 2026 capital returns (Q3 2026 8-K).
- Margins and savings moved up. Adjusted operating margin was 42.5% in the third quarter, up 2.2 percentage points on a normalized measure. The run-rate Worldpay expense synergy target rose to $650 million from $600 million, due by the end of 2028 (Q3 2026 8-K and call).
- Genius is winning in the bank channel and at venues. Genius bookings more than doubled from a year earlier in the third quarter, and the bank rollout reached more than 30 partners and about 6,000 branches in October (Q3 2026 call). Company news added 12 NASCAR-owned racetracks on 5 November 2026 and the University of Memphis stadium on 6 November 2026.
- The buyer group includes the largest outside holder. William Blair puts GTCR's stake at about 15%, stock it received when it sold Worldpay to the company (American Banker, 5 November 2026). That makes the approach more credible than a cold bid.
Bear case
- The reported price looks thin. On 30 October 2026 the FT put equity at about $23 billion and net debt above $17 billion. William Blair puts net debt at nearly $22 billion (American Banker, 5 November 2026). On that figure, a $40 billion enterprise value does not clearly pay a premium to the current share price.
- Analysts doubt the financing. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods called the deal "surprising" and said its size and tight financing will likely make it hard to complete. William Blair said the debt could be an obstacle with interest rates rising (American Banker, 5 November 2026).
- Neutral targets sit at or below the price. Bernstein's $100, JPMorgan's $100, Barclays' $97 (9 November 2026), Evercore ISI's $90 (6 November 2026) and Rothschild & Co Redburn's $80 (9 November 2026) are all at or under the $100.23 close on 11 November 2026. MarketBeat's average target was $96.52 on 6 November 2026.
- GAAP guidance moved down. On 5 November 2026 the company cut its 2026 GAAP revenue outlook to $12.946 billion to $13.023 billion, from $13.100 billion to $13.177 billion, and guided to a GAAP loss of $3.81 to $3.90 per share (Benzinga). Third-quarter GAAP diluted EPS was $1.06, against $3.58 adjusted.
- Organic growth remains modest. Normalized adjusted net revenue grew just over 4% in the third quarter (Q3 2026 8-K). KeyBanc sees growth tracking toward the "low-to-mid part" of the 4% to 5% range (American Banker, 5 November 2026).
Price setup
The shares closed at $100.23 on 11 November 2026, 2.6% below the intraday 52-week high of $102.91 set on 10 November 2026. The 3-month change is 6.0%. The 50-day moving average was $87.17 and the 200-day $77.55 on 11 November 2026, and both have risen through the autumn. The 52-week closing low was $62.47 on 10 June 2026.
Three closes frame the case. The $96.84 close on 30 October 2026 marks the first day of the takeover premium. The $94.98 close on 5 November 2026, results day, is the low since then. The $101.59 close on 10 November 2026 is the high. A fall back toward the 50-day average would mean most of the gain since the FT report has gone.
No earnings report falls within 30 days, and company news through 11 November 2026 shows no share issuance. Institutions own 89.76% of the stock (MarketBeat).
Catalysts ahead
- ~30 November 2026 (est.): Possible confirmation, denial or signed agreement on the CD&R and GTCR take-private; no party has given a timetable. A signed deal at a premium fixes a value for the shares; an end to the talks removes the premium added on 30 October 2026.
- 10 December 2026: Record date for the $0.25 quarterly dividend, payable 24 December 2026. A routine payout; it confirms capital returns continue during the buyout talks and has no bearing on the deal.
- ~15 February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results. Tests the $13.60 to $13.80 adjusted EPS range, the more-than-$2 billion capital return and the first Genius sales through bank partners.
What would change the view
A daily close below $86, just under the 50-day moving average, which would show the market has priced out most of the takeover premium added since 30 October 2026; or confirmation that the CD&R and GTCR talks have ended.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- The take-private talks end without a deal, or a deal is struck at a small premium to the 30 October 2026 close. Confirmed by: a company or sponsor statement that talks have ended, or an announced per-share price close to $96.84.
- Debt narrows what a leveraged buyer can pay or blocks financing; estimates of net debt range from above $17 billion to nearly $22 billion. Confirmed by: reports of financing difficulty, or wider leveraged-loan credit spreads before an agreement is signed.
- Travel weakness and modest organic growth force a cut to the adjusted 2026 outlook at year end, after the GAAP revenue outlook was already lowered on 5 November 2026. Confirmed by: full-year adjusted EPS below $13.60, or normalized revenue growth below 4%, in the fourth-quarter report.
- The shares trade at or above the targets of neutral-rated brokers, so an outcome without a deal leaves little analyst support for the price. Confirmed by: target cuts or downgrades after any statement that talks have stalled, or a fall back toward the 50-day moving average.
What it trades with
The shares move on deal headlines and analyst targets more than with payment peers. On 30 October 2026 they rose more than 11% on the FT report (Yahoo Finance). Michael Burry treated the reported deal value as a benchmark for Fiserv (Benzinga, 2 November 2026), so news on the talks may move other low-valued processors. Leveraged-loan conditions and interest rates bear on the deal more than on the operating business. MarketBeat lists a beta of 0.83.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter adjusted EPS was $3.58, up 10%; adjusted net revenue was $3.18 billion with normalized growth of just over 4%; GAAP revenue was $3.31 billion and GAAP diluted EPS $1.06. Global Payments Q3 2026 results (8-K exhibit 99.1) · as of
- The company reaffirmed its 2026 outlook of about 4% to 5% normalized constant-currency revenue growth, adjusted EPS of $13.60 to $13.80, and more than $2 billion of capital returns. Global Payments Q3 2026 results (8-K exhibit 99.1) · as of
- The run-rate Worldpay expense synergy target rose to $650 million from $600 million, due by the end of 2028. Q3 2026 8-K and earnings call · as of
- 2026 GAAP revenue guidance was lowered to $12.946 billion to $13.023 billion from $13.100 billion to $13.177 billion; GAAP EPS guidance moved to a loss of $3.81 to $3.90. Benzinga, 5 November 2026 · as of
- Mizuho raised its target to $115 from $110 (Outperform); Bernstein raised its target to $100 from $86 (Market Perform) on 11 November 2026. Benzinga; Investing.com, 10 November 2026 and 11 November 2026 · as of
- Cantor Fitzgerald raised its target to $103 from $91 (Neutral), Barclays to $97 (Equal-Weight) and Rothschild & Co Redburn to $80 from $70. Benzinga; Fiscal.ai, 9 November 2026 · as of
- Wells Fargo raised its target to $116 from $103 (Overweight), KeyBanc to $112 from $105 (Overweight) and JPMorgan to $100 from $95 (Neutral); MarketBeat's average target was $96.52. MarketBeat; TradingView, 6 November 2026 · as of
- William Blair put net debt at nearly $22 billion and called it a possible obstacle; Keefe, Bruyette & Woods called the deal surprising and cited tight financing. American Banker · as of
Sources
- GLOBAL PAYMENTS INC - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- Global Payments brushes off rumors it's going private · americanbanker.com ·
- Global Payments stock hits 52-week high at $101.45 · investing.com ·
- Wells Fargo & Company Issues Positive Forecast for Global Payments (NYSE:GPN) Stock Price · marketbeat.com ·
- JP Morgan maintains Global Payments at Neutral, raises price target to $100 from $95 · tradingview.com
- Global Payments (GPN) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript · fool.com ·
- Global Payments Soars 11% on Report of Potential $40 Billion Buyout · finance.yahoo.com ·
- CD&R and GTCR reportedly weigh $40bn Global Payments buyout · fintechfutures.com
Related · shared themes
CHYM
Chime Financial
Chime Financial's revenue growth sped up to 32% and its 2026 outlook rose a third time, giving the shares a modest edge over the S&P 500…
EFX
Equifax
Equifax shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months: the October rebound already prices in 8% non-mortgage growth…
FOUR
Shift4 Payments
Shift4 Payments' growth recovery stalled on 5 November 2026 (organic growth 9%, guidance cut again), so the shares are more likely to lag…
INTR
Inter
Inter & Co.'s shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500 over three months: profit grew 26% in the 12 November 2026 report, but late overdue…
See also · stocks to watch