GME · GameStop
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $20.00
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
29.3% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $20.00, on record since 10 November 2026. The shares are up 40.5% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $20.00, under Cohen's 10 September 2026 weighted purchase price of $20.38 where the insider-led run began; a Cohen share sale or a revived stock-funded GameStop offer for eBay would also break the case.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Key figures from the filings · Consumer Discretionary
Quarter to 1 August 2026, filed 9 September 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 790
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −18.7
- Gross margin (%)
- 43.7
- Operating margin (%)
- 20.3
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 688
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 893
- Price to earnings (×)
- 14.6
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 3.4
All filed numbers
What GameStop reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 790 | −18.7 | 43.7 | 20.3 |
| first filed | 835 | +14.0 | 40.7 | 17.2 |
| first filed | 1,104 | −13.9 | 35.0 | 12.2 |
| first filed | 821 | −4.6 | 33.3 | 5.0 |
| first filed | 972 | +21.8 | 29.1 | 6.8 |
| first filed | 732 | −16.9 | 34.5 | −1.5 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 420 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 893 | 299 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 2 August 2025 | +8.4 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 705 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 16.7 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 688 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 5,060 |
| Debt ($M) notes | 4,168 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 893 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +20.5% on a year | 245 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 95.4 |
| Inventory ($M) | 439 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 6,141 |
| Market value ($M) | 13,041 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 12,149 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 3.4 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 25.3 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 14.6 |
| Price to book value (×) | 2.1 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 5.3 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 9.5% of shares outstanding sold short, 4.0 days of average trading to cover, +12.6% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $99.2M | $871K |
| 12 monthsfrom | $121.2M | $2.2M |
The thesis
GameStop's shares have modestly better-than-even odds of beating the S&P 500 over the next three months. The case rests on chief executive Ryan Cohen's open-market buying, $5.1 billion of cash and marketable securities, and a 43.4 million-share eBay stake. The third-quarter report, which earnings calendars project for about 8 December 2026, settles whether collectibles growth still offsets falling video-game sales.
The shares closed at $25.55 on 11 November 2026, per adjusted daily closes. That is 37.6% above the level of three months earlier and 9.7% below the 52-week intraday high of $28.30 set on 15 October 2026. The close sits above the 50-day moving average of $23.98 and the 200-day moving average of $22.79.
The newest analyst comment came on 12 November 2026. Dan Ives kept an Outperform rating and a $32 target after a lunch with Cohen, and argued that GameStop is starting to use artificial intelligence (AI) to streamline enterprise systems such as email campaigns, per Benzinga. Ives tied that case to collectibles, which he said made up 45% of second-quarter sales. The comment adds a new argument but no new company figure; the quarterly report remains the test.
Bullish and bearish views on GameStop Corp.
The bull case on GameStop Corp. (GME), in brief: the CEO kept buying as the price rose. The bear case: the core retail business keeps shrinking.
Bull case
- The CEO kept buying as the price rose. Form 4 filings show Cohen bought 1,000,000 shares at a weighted $20.38 on 10 September 2026, 1,150,680 at $22.94 on 21 September 2026, 450,000 at an average $23.48 on 29 September 2026 and 700,000 at $24.41 on 2 October 2026. His 13 October 2026 Form 4 reports 844,130 more at an average $26.98.
- His direct stake is 42.5 million shares. Cohen's Schedule 13D/A dated 13 October 2026 reports 42,492,652 shares held directly.
- Two directors also bought. Director Alain Attal bought 17,500 shares at $22.97 on 21 September 2026 and director Nat Turner bought 10,462 at $24.33 on 1 October 2026, per SEC Form 4 filings.
- Two analysts see room above the price. StoneX's Mike Hickey started coverage on 2 November 2026 with a Buy rating and a $33 target, citing cost cuts, store closures and the focus on profit, per IBTimes. Dan Ives reiterated Outperform and a $32 target on 12 November 2026, per Benzinga.
- Collectibles now carry the stores. GameStop's 8 September 2026 release showed second-quarter collectibles sales up 57% to $356.3 million. Operating income of $160.2 million was the highest of any second quarter in company history.
- eBay results support the largest investment. eBay reported third-quarter revenue of $3.2 billion, up 14%, and gross merchandise volume of $23.2 billion, up 15%, on 28 October 2026. GameStop's 10-Q (quarterly report) valued its 43.4 million eBay shares at $4.9 billion on 1 August 2026.
- The balance sheet is large and liquid. The second-quarter 10-Q showed $5.1 billion of cash and marketable securities and $0.3 billion of digital assets at 1 August 2026.
- The warrants have expired. The warrants lapsed on 30 October 2026 at a $32.00 cash exercise price, per the company's 19 October 2026 reminder, with the shares well under that price.
Bear case
- The core retail business keeps shrinking. Second-quarter net sales fell to $790.2 million from $972.2 million a year earlier, per the 8 September 2026 release. Zacks consensus on 26 October 2026 expected third-quarter revenue of $722.5 million, down 12%, and earnings per share of $0.20, down 16.67%.
- Two officers sold into the rally. Principal financial officer Daniel Moore sold 15,480 shares at $27.00 on 12 October 2026 and general counsel Mark Robinson sold 11,178 at an average $24.66 between 1 October 2026 and 5 October 2026, both under Rule 10b5-1 trading plans, per SEC Form 4 filings.
- Loyalty perks are being cut back. GameStop stopped regular Pro members from earning points from 1 November 2026, per Game Rant. The change saves cost but gives fewer reasons to visit a shrinking store network.
- Reported earnings swing with investment marks. Net income includes mark-to-market gains and losses on the eBay stake and digital assets, so the third-quarter headline can move far from operating results.
- Valuation models sit well below the price. GuruFocus put its GF Value estimate at $14.74 against a $25.12 share price on 6 November 2026.
- The diluted share count is far above the basic count. Convertible notes put diluted shares at 592.6 million against 448.8 million basic in the fiscal second quarter of 2026, per the 10-Q.
Price setup
The shares have held between $24.17 and $25.59 at the close over the six sessions from 4 November to 11 November 2026, per adjusted daily closes. The 11 November 2026 close of $25.55 is above both the 50-day average of $23.98 and the 200-day average of $22.79.
Above the price, Cohen's 13 October 2026 purchases at $26.75 to $27.00 come first, then the 52-week intraday high of $28.30 from 15 October 2026. The analyst targets of $32 (Ives) and $33 (StoneX) sit above that.
Below the price, the 5 November 2026 close of $24.17 is the nearest recent low. Cohen's purchase prices of $22.94 (21 September 2026) and a weighted $20.38 (10 September 2026) mark where his buying began. The 52-week closing low is $17.87, set on 28 August 2026.
Catalysts ahead
- ~27 November 2026 (est.): GameStop announces the date of its third-quarter report; last year's notice came on 28 November 2025. Fixes the date of the report that decides the case, which earnings calendars only project so far.
- ~8 December 2026 (est.): GameStop third-quarter fiscal 2026 report (date projected by earnings calendars, not confirmed by the company). Shows whether collectibles growth still offsets falling video-game sales against a $722.5M revenue consensus, and how the eBay stake and bitcoin were marked for the quarter.
What would change the view
A daily close below $20.00, under Cohen's 10 September 2026 weighted purchase price of $20.38 where the insider-led run began; a Cohen share sale or a revived stock-funded GameStop offer for eBay would also break the case.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- A revived eBay offer paid partly in stock dilutes existing holders. Confirmed by: a new GameStop proposal to eBay, or a filing registering shares for an acquisition.
- A fall in eBay shares cuts the value of GameStop's largest investment and hits reported earnings. Confirmed by: eBay shares giving back their post-2026-10-28 gain and trading toward the $101.30 average price GameStop paid on 15 July 2026.
- Collectibles growth fades while store-based sales keep shrinking. Confirmed by: Q3 collectibles growth well below the 57% reported for Q2, with total net sales below the $722.5M consensus.
- Insider buying ends or reverses, removing the main support for the rally since September. Confirmed by: a Form 4 showing a sale by Ryan Cohen, or no further insider purchases while the shares close below $22.94, his 21 September 2026 purchase price.
- Retail and leveraged-fund buying keeps unwinding after the 15 October 2026 high. Confirmed by: daily closes below the 5 November 2026 close of $24.17 and below the 50-day moving average.
What it trades with
GME moves with eBay shares through the 43.4 million-share stake and, to a smaller degree, with bitcoin through $0.3 billion of digital assets. It also trades with retail-favoured names: Benzinga listed it with Tesla, Micron, CoreWeave and Rocket Lab as the most-discussed stocks on X and Reddit's r/WallStreetBets for 5 October to 9 October 2026. The GMEU leveraged exchange-traded fund jumped 8% on 15 October 2026 as GME rallied, per Benzinga, which amplifies daily moves in both directions. Company-specific drivers, chiefly Cohen's filings and the quarterly report, outweigh its link to the S&P 500.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Dan Ives kept an Outperform rating and a $32 target after meeting Ryan Cohen, saying GameStop is starting to apply AI to enterprise systems and that collectibles were 45% of second-quarter sales. Benzinga, 12 November 2026 · as of
- StoneX analyst Mike Hickey started coverage with a Buy rating and a $33 target, citing cost cuts, store closures and the focus on profit. IBTimes; Benzinga, 2 November 2026 · as of
- Q2 fiscal 2026 net sales $790.2M vs $972.2M a year earlier; operating income $160.2M, highest Q2 in company history; collectibles sales up 57% to $356.3M. GameStop Q2 FY2026 earnings release (8-K) · as of
- Cash and marketable securities $5.1B, digital assets $0.3B, 43.4M eBay shares valued at $4.9B. GameStop Q2 FY2026 10-Q · as of
- Ryan Cohen bought 844,130 GameStop shares at an average $26.98; 42,492,652 shares held directly. Ryan Cohen Form 4 and Schedule 13D/A Amendment No. 21 (SEC EDGAR) · as of
- PFO Daniel Moore sold 15,480 shares at $27.00 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. Daniel Moore Form 4 filed 13 October 2026 (SEC EDGAR) · as of
- eBay Q3 2026 revenue $3.2B (+14%), gross merchandise volume $23.2B (+15%), non-GAAP EPS $1.51; Q4 revenue guided to $3.19B-$3.24B. eBay Q3 2026 earnings release, Exhibit 99.1 to 8-K (SEC EDGAR) · as of
- Zacks consensus: Q3 EPS $0.20 (−16.67%) on revenue $722.5M (−12%); full-year EPS $1.09 on revenue $3.36B. Zacks via Yahoo Finance, 26 October 2026 · as of
Sources
- GameStop an AI Stock? Dan Ives Says ‘Market Has Not Priced’ In Opportunities · benzinga.com
- GameStop Stock Edges Higher as StoneX Starts Coverage With Buy Rating and $33 Target on Cohen's Turnaround · ibtimes.com.au
- GME Rises After Hours As Ryan Cohen Buys Another 844K Shares Worth Near $23M · finance.yahoo.com
- A Look at GameStop Corp (GME) After 3.9% Gain -- GF Value $14.74 vs Price $25.12 · gurufocus.com
- November 2026 is Officially the End of an Era for GameStop · gamerant.com
- GameStop Announces Release Date for Third Quarter Fiscal 2025 Results · businesswire.com ·
- days.to
- GameStop’s Collectibles Push, Trading Card Buybacks, eBay Stake Offer Strategic Upside, Analyst Says · benzinga.com
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