CPRI · Capri Holdings
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a daily close below $15.50
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
38.5% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close below $15.50, on record since 10 November 2026. The shares are up 46.3% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close below $15.50, which would erase the gain after the 30 October 2026 report and put the shares under their 50-day average; or fiscal third-quarter revenue below the $1.005 billion guidance, or a cut to the roughly $2.20 full-year EPS outlook.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Consumer Discretionary
Quarter to 26 September 2026, filed 30 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 809
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −5.5
- Gross margin (%)
- 63.3
- Operating margin (%)
- 1.2
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 184
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- −336
- Price to earnings (×)
- 10.7
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 0.8
All filed numbers
What Capri Holdings reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 809 | −5.5 | 63.3 | 1.2 |
| first filed | 769 | −3.5 | 65.0 | 2.2 |
| first filed | 796 | −3.7 | 64.8 | −3.4 |
| first filed | 1,025 | −4.0 | 60.8 | 4.5 |
| first filed | 856 | −2.5 | 61.0 | −1.4 |
| first filed | 797 | −6.0 | 63.0 | 2.0 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 44.0 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 208 | 27.0 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 27 September 2025 | −7.9 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 261 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 77.0 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 184 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 125 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt plus current maturities | 461 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | −336 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) −23.1% on a year | 10.0 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 223 |
| Inventory ($M) | 712 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 65.0 |
| Market value ($M) | 2,218 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 2,554 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 0.8 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 55.5 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 10.7 |
| Price to book value (×) | 34.1 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 8.3 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 13.8% of shares outstanding sold short, 4.5 days of average trading to cover, +0.9% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $1.3M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $989K | $3.6M |
The thesis
Capri Holdings' Michael Kors turnaround gives the shares a modest edge over the S&P 500 after the 30 October 2026 beat-and-raise. A chief executive handover on 4 January 2027 adds a new variable. The fiscal third-quarter report, expected around early February 2027, settles whether holiday revenue meets the $1.005 billion guidance.
On 11 November 2026 Capri named Justin Boxford, Global President of Luxury Beauty Brands at The Estée Lauder Companies, as chief executive from 4 January 2027 (company 8-K, filed 12 November 2026). John D. Idol retires after 23 years in charge and stays as a senior adviser through 31 March 2027. Lead Director Robin Freestone becomes independent chairman. The release did not restate guidance. Idol's quote repeated that the company is on a path to "return to growth in the fourth quarter."
The shares closed at $20.89 on 11 November 2026, down from $21.73 on 10 November 2026, on the day of the announcement. The rating is Medium because the reported numbers still carry the case: a large profit beat, a raised full-year outlook and a cleaner balance sheet. The handover is the main new risk. Boxford takes over five weeks before the holiday-quarter report, and new chief executives often reset outlooks.
Bullish and bearish views on Capri Holdings Limited
The bull case on Capri Holdings Limited (CPRI), in brief: profit beat was large and margin-led. The bear case: Michael Kors is still shrinking.
Bull case
- Profit beat was large and margin-led. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.42 beat the $0.21 estimate, and revenue of $809 million beat the $781 million estimate (Benzinga, 30 October 2026). Gross margin rose 2.3 percentage points to 63.3%, which the company credited to full-price selling, brand mix and lower tariff rates.
- Full-year outlook went up. Capri raised fiscal 2027 guidance to about $3.42 billion of revenue and about $2.20 of EPS, from $3.40 billion and $2.15 (company release, 30 October 2026). Benzinga put the consensus EPS estimate at $2.04 that day.
- New chief executive knows the brand. The 11 November 2026 release says Boxford ran La Mer for five years and roughly doubled its size. At Estée Lauder he was also responsible for Michael Kors fragrances.
- Closest peers confirmed demand. On 5 November 2026, Tapestry raised its fiscal 2027 revenue guidance to $8.5–$8.6 billion (Reuters). The same day, Ralph Lauren reported revenue up 9% to about $2.19 billion and raised its full-year growth outlook.
- Balance sheet repaired after Versace. Net debt was $336 million on 26 September 2026, against $1.6 billion a year earlier. Inventory fell 7% to $712 million (company release, 30 October 2026).
- The share count is shrinking. Capri bought back about 10.3 million shares for $150 million in the quarter and had about $721 million left under its repurchase program (company release, 30 October 2026).
Bear case
- Michael Kors is still shrinking. Michael Kors revenue fell 8.6% to $663 million in the quarter to 26 September 2026 (company release, 30 October 2026). It is more than four-fifths of company revenue.
- Part of the beat was borrowed. About $20 million of wholesale shipments moved from the third quarter into the second, $15 million of it at Michael Kors (company release, 30 October 2026).
- Holiday-quarter sales guidance is soft. The $1.005 billion third-quarter guide sits below the $1.021 billion estimate (Benzinga, 30 October 2026). Management expects Michael Kors to return to growth only in the fiscal fourth quarter.
- Leadership changes during the turnaround. Boxford starts on 4 January 2027, and his career has been in beauty, not handbags and apparel retail (company release, 11 November 2026). A new chief executive's first fiscal 2028 outlook could reset the targets the shares now price.
- Coach is taking the category's growth. Coach revenue rose 16% to $1.66 billion while Tapestry's Kate Spade fell 10% (FashionNetwork, 5 November 2026). Demand is concentrating in the strongest brand.
- Shares trade near or above most targets. After the report, UBS moved to $19, Wells Fargo to $18 and Goldman Sachs to $20, all with neutral ratings; Barclays moved to $24 with Overweight (Benzinga, 2 November 2026). The $20.89 close on 11 November 2026 is above three of the four.
Price setup
The shares closed at $20.89 on 11 November 2026. The three-month change is 33.9%, from $15.60 on 13 August 2026. The last close is 26.1% below the 52-week intraday high of $28.27 on 4 December 2025 and well above the 52-week closing low of $12.71 on 2 September 2026.
As of 11 November 2026, the 50-day moving average was $15.83 and the 200-day moving average was $17.69. The shares trade above both. The 50-day average sits below the 200-day, so the recovery since September has not yet turned the longer trend.
The Motley Fool reported a rise of more than 7% on 2 November 2026, the first session after the report. The highest recent close was $21.73 on 10 November 2026. The close of $18.68 on 30 October 2026, the day of the report, is the nearest reference below. A return under it would erase the gains since the report. A fall under the 50-day average would put the shares back beneath their level before the report.
SEC filings since the report list the 10-Q on 30 October 2026 and the succession 8-K on 12 November 2026, with no Form 4 insider transactions. No earnings date falls in the next 30 days.
Catalysts ahead
- 27 November 2026: Black Friday, start of the US holiday shopping season. Holiday demand decides whether Michael Kors reaches its roughly $830 million fiscal third-quarter revenue guidance.
- 30 November 2026: Cyber Monday. It extends the early read on holiday promotions and online demand across accessible-luxury brands.
- 4 January 2027: Justin Boxford takes over as chief executive. His first public comments show whether the new leadership keeps the fourth-quarter return-to-growth target or resets it.
- ~4 February 2027 (est.): Fiscal Q3 2027 report. It settles whether revenue meets the $1.005 billion guidance and whether the fourth-quarter outlook still shows Michael Kors returning to growth.
What would change the view
A daily close below $15.50, which would erase the gain after the 30 October 2026 report and put the shares under their 50-day average; or fiscal third-quarter revenue below the $1.005 billion guidance, or a cut to the roughly $2.20 full-year EPS outlook.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- The second-quarter beat was flattered by roughly $20 million of wholesale shipments moved forward from the third quarter. Confirmed by: fiscal third-quarter revenue below the $1.005 billion guidance, or Michael Kors below its roughly $830 million guide.
- Michael Kors fails to return to growth in the fiscal fourth quarter as management expects. Confirmed by: Michael Kors revenue still declining in the fiscal third-quarter report alongside a weaker fourth-quarter outlook.
- The incoming chief executive resets targets or raises investment spending, lowering the earnings path the shares price. Confirmed by: a strategic review, higher brand-investment spending or a fiscal 2028 outlook below analyst estimates announced after 4 January 2027.
- Accessible-luxury growth concentrates in Coach while weaker brands lose share to it. Confirmed by: Coach growth staying in double digits at Tapestry's next report while Michael Kors misses its guidance.
- Tariff costs run above the 10% to 12.5% incremental rate that the guidance assumes, reversing part of the margin gain. Confirmed by: a company cut to the full-year operating income outlook that cites tariffs, or gross margin below the prior-year level.
- The shares run ahead of analyst targets, most of which sit at or below $20 with neutral ratings. Confirmed by: downgrades or unchanged targets from UBS, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo after the holiday-quarter report.
What it trades with
Capri trades with accessible-luxury peers, mainly Tapestry and Ralph Lauren, whose 5 November 2026 reports supported the shares. It also moves with the wider consumer discretionary group, including Coty and Fossil.
Shared risks are US tariff policy on imported leather goods and holiday promotional intensity. Since the Versace sale closed on 2 December 2025, Michael Kors' wholesale exposure to US department stores is the company's main sensitivity. A broad pullback in consumer discretionary stocks would likely pull the shares down without company news.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Fiscal Q2 2027 revenue was $809 million, down 5.5% (down 4.9% in constant currency); adjusted EPS was $0.42 against a $0.21 estimate, and revenue beat a $781 million estimate. Capri Holdings Q2 FY2027 earnings release; Benzinga · as of
- Michael Kors revenue fell 8.6% to $663 million; Jimmy Choo revenue rose 11.5% to $146 million. Capri Holdings Q2 FY2027 earnings release · as of
- FY2027 guidance was raised to about $3.42 billion of revenue (from $3.40 billion) and about $2.20 of EPS (from $2.15). Capri Holdings Q2 FY2027 earnings release; Benzinga · as of
- Q3 FY2027 guidance calls for about $1.005 billion of revenue, below the $1.021 billion estimate, with about $830 million at Michael Kors and about $175 million at Jimmy Choo. Capri Holdings Q2 FY2027 earnings release; Benzinga · as of
- Net debt was $336 million against $1.6 billion a year earlier; inventory was $712 million, down 7%; about $721 million remained under the repurchase program. Capri Holdings Q2 FY2027 earnings release · as of
- Capri named Estée Lauder executive Justin Boxford CEO effective 4 January 2027, succeeding John D. Idol, who stays as senior adviser through 31 March 2027. Capri Holdings 8-K, Exhibit 99.1 · as of
- Tapestry fiscal Q1 sales rose 11.1% to $1.89 billion, Coach rose 16%, Kate Spade fell 10%, and fiscal 2027 revenue guidance rose to $8.5–$8.6 billion. Reuters via Investing.com · as of
- Post-report price targets: Barclays $24 (Overweight), Goldman Sachs $20 (Neutral), UBS $19 from $17 (Neutral), Wells Fargo $18 (Equal-Weight). Benzinga; Investing.com · as of
Sources
- Capri Holdings Ltd - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- SEC EDGAR
- Why Capri Holdings Stock Crushed it Today · fool.com ·
- UBS raises Capri Holdings stock price target on better fundamentals · investing.com
- Tapestry lifts outlook as young shoppers snap up Coach bags, shares jump By Reuters · investing.com ·
- Tapestry lifts annual forecasts as Coach revenue rises 16% but Kate Spade sales fall 10% in Q1 · ww.fashionnetwork.com
- Ralph Lauren Q2 revenue rises 9%, raises FY2027 outlook · stocktitan.net
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