CRSR · Corsair Gaming
Conviction · Medium · more likely to lead the S&P 500 over the next three months, by a modest margin
Wrong if: a weekly close below $10.93
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
7.8% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
The red mark is the price level of the published kill line: a close through it (a weekly close, on a weekly line) would prove the research note wrong on price. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026; a dot left of the mark has closed through its line.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a weekly close below $10.93, on record since 10 November 2026; only a weekly close settles it. The shares are down 3.8% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A weekly close below $10.93, the 21 August 2026 close where the post-results recovery began. Fourth-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA below $38 million or memory gross margin below 18%, the low ends of guidance set on 5 November 2026, would also break the case.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Technology
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 5 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 367
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +6.1
- Gross margin (%)
- 26.7
- Operating margin (%)
- −0.4
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 114
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 19.5
- Price to earnings (×)
- 28.7
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 0.9
All filed numbers
What Corsair Gaming reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 367 | +6.1 | 26.7 | −0.4 |
| first filed | 314 | −1.8 | 33.2 | 2.4 |
| first filed | 355 | −4.1 | 32.7 | 3.9 |
| first filed | 437 | +5.6 | 33.1 | 6.2 |
| first filed | 346 | +13.7 | 26.9 | −1.6 |
| first filed | 320 | +22.5 | 26.8 | −5.3 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | −1.4 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: 44.9 | −2.6 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | +2.3 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 129 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 14.3 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 114 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 136 |
| Debt ($M) non-current long-term debt plus current debt | 117 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 19.5 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) +51.2% on a year | 6.0 |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 189 |
| Inventory ($M) | 345 |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 674 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,287 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 1,268 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 0.9 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 27.2 |
| Price to earnings (×) | 28.7 |
| Price to book value (×) | 1.9 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 8.9 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 9.2% of shares outstanding sold short, 8.9 days of average trading to cover, +4.0% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $0 |
| 12 monthsfrom | $305K | $121K |
The thesis
Corsair Gaming's recovery case holds. The company beat the top of its third-quarter guidance on 5 November 2026 and raised its full-year outlook, and the shares are modestly more likely than not to beat the S&P 500 over the next three months. The fourth-quarter report, expected around February 2027, shows whether profit holds as memory gross margin falls to the guided 18%–20%.
The 5 November 2026 release showed revenue of $367.0 million, up 6% year over year. Adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) were $22.4 million, up 38%. Non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) were $0.13. The second quarter's adjusted EBITDA included a $15.6 million tariff refund; the third-quarter release names no such benefit.
The market judged the report on margin and has since recovered most of the drop. The shares closed at $12.80 on 5 November 2026 before the release, fell to $11.84 on 6 November 2026, and closed at $12.73 on 11 November 2026. At that price the shares sit above MarketBeat's $12.29 Hold consensus target of 6 November 2026 and below Barclays' $14 target. The price already credits the raised outlook, and the holiday quarter's margin is the part still to be proven.
Bullish and bearish views on Corsair Gaming, Inc.
The bull case on Corsair Gaming, Inc. (CRSR), in brief: every guidance ceiling was cleared. The bear case: memory margin is falling quickly.
Bull case
- Every guidance ceiling was cleared. Third-quarter revenue of $367.0 million topped the $350 million ceiling, adjusted EBITDA of $22.4 million topped $21 million, and EPS of $0.13 topped $0.12, per the 5 November 2026 release. Benzinga put consensus at $336.563 million of sales and $0.12 of EPS.
- The full-year outlook moved up. On 5 November 2026 Corsair raised 2026 revenue guidance to $1.456 billion–$1.486 billion from $1.400 billion–$1.470 billion, against a $1.440 billion consensus reported by Benzinga. The adjusted EBITDA range rose to $127 million–$131 million from $121 million–$131 million.
- The holiday demand event is confirmed. Take-Two chief executive Strauss Zelnick said on the company's 9 November 2026 earnings call that Grand Theft Auto 6 launches in ten days, with pre-orders "tracking far above our initial expectations," per KeenGamer. Corsair chief executive Thi La tied fourth-quarter peripherals growth to that launch on 5 November 2026.
- Some peripherals sales moved into the holidays. The chief financial officer (CFO) said on the 5 November 2026 call that $6 million–$8 million of peripherals sales slipped out of the third quarter on logistics and launch timing, not end-customer demand. Management guided double-digit peripherals growth for the fourth quarter, and Trak Racer, the sim-racing company bought in 2026, starts contributing then.
- Memory sales are taking share. Memory revenue reached a third-quarter record of $167.3 million, up 43%, per the 5 November 2026 release. La said on the call that supply still trails demand.
- A large broker target sits above the price. Barclays kept its Overweight rating on 6 November 2026 and lowered its target to $14 from $15, per Benzinga.
Bear case
- Memory margin is falling quickly. The CFO put memory gross margin at about 35% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 21.3% in the third quarter of 2026, guided 18%–20% for the fourth quarter, and called the long-term average "kind of mid-teens" on 5 November 2026. He said fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA will come in below the prior year.
- Higher revenue did not lift the profit ceiling. The 5 November 2026 update raised both ends of the revenue range, but the top of the adjusted EBITDA range stayed at $131 million and full-year adjusted EPS guidance moved to $0.89–$0.94 from $0.85–$0.94, per Benzinga, leaving the $0.94 top unchanged.
- The holiday guide only brackets consensus. Fourth-quarter guidance of $420 million–$450 million in revenue and $0.26–$0.31 of EPS compares with Benzinga's estimates of $434.711 million and $0.29 on 5 November 2026.
- The core component market is shrinking. Corsair said on 5 November 2026 that the do-it-yourself (DIY) PC build and standalone component market shrank year over year in the third quarter on higher memory prices, per Benzinga.
- Inventory and cash moved the wrong way. Inventory rose $80 million in the third quarter to $344.6 million at 30 September 2026, including a $37 million rise in memory, while cash and restricted cash fell $57.6 million to $136.2 million after about $37 million of acquisitions, per the release and call.
- Consensus sits near the price. MarketBeat showed a Hold consensus with a $12.29 target from three Buy, four Hold and one Sell rating on 6 November 2026.
Price setup
The shares closed at $12.73 on 11 November 2026, below the 50-day moving average of $13.19 and well above the 200-day moving average of $9.29, both from adjusted daily closes as of that date. The 3-month change is −5.4%, measured from the $13.45 close on 13 August 2026.
The post-report path ran $12.80 on 5 November 2026, $11.84 on 6 November 2026, $12.16 on 9 November 2026, $12.27 on 10 November 2026 and $12.73 on 11 November 2026. MarketBeat reported an $11.10 opening print on 6 November 2026, the low point of the reaction. The shares are back within a few cents of the pre-report close.
The 50-day average is the nearest level overhead; closes above it would show the post-report drop fully absorbed. The last close is 15.0% below the 52-week intraday high of $14.98 set on 10 August 2026. The 52-week closing low is $4.58 on 12 February 2026, which marks how far the recovery since February has run. The late-August low after the second-quarter report is where the August-to-October rally began, and the case rests on the shares holding above it.
SEC Form 4 filings show one open-market insider sale in the past quarter: director Sarah Mears Kim sold 8,874 shares at $13.69 on 13 August 2026. Chief executive Thi La's three August filings were shares withheld for tax. The larger supply risk is structural, since EagleTree Capital holds a control stake.
Catalysts ahead
- 17 November 2026: Corsair meets investors at the 15th Annual ROTH Technology Conference in New York, which runs 17 November to 18 November 2026. This is management's first investor forum since the 5 November 2026 report, where comments on memory pricing and early holiday demand can update the fourth-quarter outlook.
- 19 November 2026: Grand Theft Auto 6 launches on PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X|S, the event chief executive Thi La named as support for peripherals growth. Management guided double-digit fourth-quarter peripherals growth, and this launch is the dated demand event for the higher-margin segment.
- ~February 2027 (est.): Fourth-quarter and full-year 2026 results, not yet scheduled. Shows whether adjusted EBITDA clears the $38M guidance floor, memory gross margin holds 18%-20%, and peripherals growth reaches double digits.
What would change the view
A weekly close below $10.93, the 21 August 2026 close where the post-results recovery began. Fourth-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA below $38 million or memory gross margin below 18%, the low ends of guidance set on 5 November 2026, would also break the case.
The risks this note tracks, each with what would confirm it:
- Memory gross margin falls faster than guided, toward the mid-teens long-term average the CFO described on 5 November 2026. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter memory gross margin below 18%, or adjusted EBITDA below the $38M guidance floor.
- High memory prices keep delaying DIY PC builds, and the deferred demand does not return. Confirmed by: Corsair reporting another year-over-year decline in the DIY market at the fourth-quarter report, or non-memory component sales falling further.
- The third-quarter peripherals shortfall proves to be weak demand rather than the logistics and launch timing the CFO described. Confirmed by: fourth-quarter peripherals growth below double digits, or peripherals gross margin below the 38.7% posted in the third quarter.
- Inventory built at high memory prices loses value if DRAM prices fall. Confirmed by: an inventory write-down in a quarterly filing, or inventory staying near $344.6M after the holiday quarter.
- Grand Theft Auto 6 slips again, removing the holiday demand event for peripherals. Confirmed by: rockstar or Take-Two announcing a release date later than 19 November 2026.
- The private-equity control holder sells stock through a registered secondary offering. Confirmed by: an S-3 or 424B5 prospectus filing, or a 13D/A showing a smaller control stake.
What it trades with
The shares follow two things the company does not control: DRAM prices, which set memory gross margin, and enthusiast PC build demand, which high memory prices are currently holding back. Holiday console and game releases, led by Grand Theft Auto 6 on 19 November 2026, feed the peripherals side. Logitech is the closest listed peripherals peer. With a minority free float and a control holder, the stock can move more on company news than on broad market direction.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Q3 FY26 revenue was $367.0M, up 6% year over year and $17.0M above the top of guidance; adjusted EBITDA was $22.4M, up 38%; non-GAAP EPS was $0.13. Corsair Q3 FY26 earnings release (8-K Exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Memory revenue reached a Q3 record of $167.3M, up 43%; memory gross margin was 21.3% against about 35% in Q4 2025. Corsair Q3 FY26 earnings release and 5 November 2026 earnings call · as of
- Corsair guided Q4 FY26 revenue of $420M-$450M, adjusted EBITDA of $38M-$42M, non-GAAP EPS of $0.26-$0.31 and memory gross margin of about 18%-20%. Corsair Q3 FY26 earnings release and 5 November 2026 earnings call · as of
- FY26 guidance moved to revenue of $1.456B-$1.486B from $1.400B-$1.470B and adjusted EBITDA of $127M-$131M from $121M-$131M. Corsair Q3 FY26 earnings release (8-K Exhibit 99.1) · as of
- Inventory was $344.6M, up $80M sequentially including a $37M rise in memory; cash and restricted cash were $136.2M, down $57.6M after about $37M of acquisitions. Corsair Q3 FY26 earnings release and 5 November 2026 earnings call · as of
- Barclays kept its Overweight rating on Corsair and lowered its price target to $14 from $15. Benzinga analyst ratings headline · as of
- Take-Two said Grand Theft Auto 6 launches in ten days, on 19 November 2026, with pre-orders tracking far above its initial expectations. Take-Two 9 November 2026 earnings call, reported by KeenGamer · as of
- MarketBeat listed a Hold consensus on Corsair with a $12.29 target from three Buy, four Hold and one Sell rating. MarketBeat, 'Corsair Gaming Shares Gap Down' · as of
Sources
- Corsair Gaming, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- Corsair Gaming (CRSR) Q3 2026 Earnings Call Transcript · fool.com ·
- GTA 6 Pre-Orders Reaching "Unprecedented Levels", Per Take-Two Interactive Earnings Call · keengamer.com ·
- Corsair Gaming (NASDAQ:CRSR) Shares Gap Down - Here's Why · marketbeat.com ·
- Corsair Gaming Q3 Earnings Call Highlights · finance.yahoo.com ·
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