IBTA · Ibotta
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $66.39
Note written ·
How this view changed
- · Rating cut from Medium to Low. Company filing, 12 November 2026: KDT Ibotta Holdings, a Koch-owned 10% holder, reported selling 200,000 Ibotta shares on 9 November 2026 and 10 November 2026 outside a Rule 10b5-1 plan, its third sale since the Q3 report, leaving it 3,289,129 Class A shares.
Price against the kill line
13.3% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $66.39, set on 12 November 2026. The shares are up 60.2% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $66.39, the 52-week intraday high of 3 November 2026, which would show buyers absorbing the Koch selling and the shares leading; separately, Q4 2026 revenue above $98 million, the top of guidance.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Communication Services
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 3 November 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 97.8
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- +17.5
- Gross margin (%)
- 79.9
- Operating margin (%)
- 4.8
- Free cash flow, four quarters ($M)
- 81.5
- Free-cash-flow yield (%)
- 6.1
All filed numbers
What Ibotta reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Gross margin (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 97.8 | +17.5 | 79.9 | 4.8 |
| first filed | 88.9 | +3.3 | 78.4 | −2.1 |
| first filed | 82.5 | −2.5 | 76.4 | −13.1 |
| first filed | 88.5 | −10.0 | 78.7 | −1.9 |
| first filed | 83.3 | −15.6 | 79.4 | 2.8 |
| first filed | 86.0 | −2.2 | 79.2 | 1.4 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 6.1 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −16.1 | −3.5 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −20.5 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | 93.4 |
| Capital spending ($M) | 11.9 |
| Free cash flow ($M) | 81.5 |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 150 |
| Debt ($M) | Not available |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | Not available |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 222 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 238 |
| Market value ($M) | 1,345 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | Not available |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | Not available |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 5.6 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | 6.1 |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 11.8% of shares outstanding sold short, 9.4 days of average trading to cover, −13.7% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $100.1M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0and 1 trade without a stated price | $130.5M |
The thesis
Ibotta's shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months. The beat in the third quarter of 2026 (Q3) is already in the price. Koch's investment vehicle has been selling steadily into the rally. The Q4 2026 report decides whether growth beats a guide that calls for a slowdown, and Ibotta has not yet scheduled it.
The business case is real. Q3 2026 revenue rose 17% to $97.8 million, above the $86–90 million guide, on 43% growth in third-party publisher revenue (company 8-K, 2 November 2026). The shares closed at $59.94 on 11 November 2026, up 57.0% in three months. That close is above the $58 targets Goldman Sachs and Evercore ISI set on 3 November 2026 and 4 November 2026.
New supply is what changed the rating. KDT Ibotta Holdings, the Koch Disruptive Technologies vehicle that owns more than 10% of the shares, sold 700,000 shares on 3 November 2026 and 4 November 2026 at an average of $59.70. It sold 200,000 more on 5 November 2026 and 6 November 2026 at an average of $58.22, and another 200,000 on 9 November 2026 and 10 November 2026 at an average of $58.59 (SEC Form 4 filings, 5 November 2026, 9 November 2026 and 12 November 2026). The latest filing leaves the Rule 10b5-1 box unchecked, so these sales did not run under a pre-arranged plan. KDT still held 3,289,129 Class A shares after 10 November 2026. The rating is Low because the price sits at most analyst targets, a large holder is selling, and no company report is scheduled before the quarter closes.
Bullish and bearish views on Ibotta, Inc.
The bull case on Ibotta, Inc. (IBTA), in brief: publisher growth is accelerating. The bear case: a 10% owner is selling.
Bull case
- Publisher growth is accelerating. Third-party publisher redemption revenue rose 43% to $70.7 million in Q3 2026, after 27% growth in Q2 (company releases, 2 November 2026 and 3 August 2026). Third-party redemptions reached 97.6 million, up from 62.1 million a year earlier (Q3 Form 10-Q).
- Users are coming back more often. Total redeemers rose 30% to 23.6 million in Q3 2026, and redemptions per redeemer rose 8% to 4.9 (company release, 2 November 2026). MarketBeat's 2 November 2026 call summary says this was the first year-over-year rise in redemptions per redeemer since the Ibotta Performance Network launched.
- The retailer network keeps widening. Giant Eagle went live in Q3 2026. 7-Eleven launched in its 7-Eleven and Speedway apps in October, and Festival Foods launched digital offers in Q4 (MarketBeat call summary, 2 November 2026).
- Profit beat by a wide margin. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation, excluding certain items) rose 43% to $23.8 million in Q3 2026, against a $12–14 million guide (company release, 2 November 2026). Benzinga reported adjusted EPS of $0.62 against a $0.38 estimate the same day.
- Q4 guidance clears consensus. The whole $94–98 million Q4 revenue range sits above the $93.38 million estimate Benzinga listed on 2 November 2026. On the call, management described its holiday planning as conservative.
- Cash funds buybacks. Ibotta held $149.9 million of cash on 30 September 2026 and generated $16.8 million of free cash flow in Q3 2026. It repurchased 395,364 Class A shares for about $14.5 million in the quarter, with $52.9 million left under its authorization (Q3 Form 10-Q).
Bear case
- A 10% owner is selling. KDT Ibotta Holdings sold in three separate filings between 3 November 2026 and 10 November 2026, at averages of $58.22 to $59.70 (SEC Form 4 filings). Its remaining 3,289,129 Class A shares are a standing source of supply.
- Executives sold after the report. The chief technology officer sold 53,462 shares at an average of $57.30 on 2 November 2026 and 3 November 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. The chief revenue officer sold 12,259 shares at $60.00 on 5 November 2026 (SEC Form 4 filings, 4 November 2026 and 9 November 2026).
- The guide calls for slower growth. Q4 2026 guidance implies about 8% revenue growth at the midpoint, after 17% in Q3. Management's early view for 2027 is revenue growth of at least the mid-single digits (MarketBeat call summary, 2 November 2026).
- Margins step down next quarter. The Q4 adjusted EBITDA guide is $15–17 million, against $23.8 million and a 24.3% margin in Q3 (company release, 2 November 2026).
- Each redemption earns less. Revenue per redemption fell 13% to $0.76 in Q3 2026. The third-party figure fell to $0.72 from $0.79 (Q3 Form 10-Q). Management blamed mix, pricing actions and lower-priced food and beverage offers.
- Direct-to-consumer keeps shrinking. Direct-to-consumer revenue fell 20% to $27.2 million in Q3 2026. Ibotta posted a net loss of $3.5 million, against net income of $1.5 million a year earlier (Q3 Form 10-Q).
- Price sits at most targets. The $59.94 close on 11 November 2026 is above the targets of Goldman Sachs ($58), Evercore ISI ($58), Wells Fargo ($49) and BofA Securities ($26). Only Needham ($65) is clearly above it, with Citigroup at $60 (Benzinga and Fiscal.ai, 3 November to 4 November 2026).
Price setup
The shares closed at $59.94 on 11 November 2026. That close is 9.7% below the 52-week intraday high set on 3 November 2026, the day after the report. The highest close since the report was $63.03 on 4 November 2026. The shares then fell to $57.85 on 5 November 2026.
Since 5 November 2026 the shares have closed between $57.85 and $60.30. That is the range in which KDT sold 400,000 shares. A sustained move out of it would show whether buyers or the selling holder sets the price.
The longer trend is strongly up. The 50-day moving average is $45.61 and the 200-day is $34.27 as of 11 November 2026. The shares closed at $38.18 on 13 August 2026 and at a 52-week closing low of $19.25 on 5 February 2026. Ibotta reported Q4 2025 results on 25 February 2026. A similar date for Q4 2026 would fall at or past the end of the three-month window, leaving no scheduled report to reset expectations before then.
Catalysts ahead
- 31 December 2026: Q4 2026 quarter end, closing the holiday promotion period. This date closes the period covered by the $94–98 million revenue guide, which management called conservatively planned for the holidays.
- ~25 February 2027 (est.): Q4 2026 results; Ibotta has not announced the date, and it reported Q4 2025 on 25 February 2026. The report shows whether revenue beats the $98 million top of guidance, whether publisher growth holds above Q2's 27%, and how firm the 2027 growth view of at least mid-single digits is.
What would change the view
A daily close above $66.39, the 52-week intraday high of 3 November 2026, which would show buyers absorbing the Koch selling and the shares leading; separately, Q4 2026 revenue above $98 million, the top of guidance.
What it trades with
Ibotta earns its revenue when shoppers redeem offers that consumer packaged goods brands pay for. Brand promotion and performance-marketing budgets drive it far more than credit cycles do. The nearest listed comparisons are ad-tech names. Trade Desk rose 27.1% to $18.98 in after-hours trading on 9 November 2026 after its Q3 report, according to Benzinga. That points to a better mood across advertising technology in the same week. Ibotta's own 57.0% three-month gain came mostly from its 2 November 2026 report, so stock-specific supply and the Q4 result matter more to the shares than the group does.
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Q3 2026 revenue was $97.8 million, up 17% year over year; third-party publisher redemption revenue was $70.7 million, up 43%; direct-to-consumer revenue was $27.2 million, down 20%. Ibotta Q3 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K · as of
- Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA was $23.8 million, up 43%, a 24.3% margin, against guidance of $12–14 million; net loss was $3.5 million. Ibotta Q3 2026 earnings release, Form 8-K · as of
- Q4 2026 guidance is revenue of $94–98 million, about 8% growth at the midpoint, and adjusted EBITDA of $15–17 million; Benzinga listed the Q4 revenue estimate at $93.38 million. Ibotta Q3 2026 earnings release; Benzinga · as of
- KDT Ibotta Holdings, owned through Koch Disruptive Technologies by Koch, Inc., sold 100,000 shares at $58.47 on 9 November 2026 and 100,000 at $58.72 on 10 November 2026, leaving 3,289,129 Class A shares; the filing does not mark a Rule 10b5-1 plan. SEC Form 4 filed 12 November 2026 · as of
- KDT Ibotta Holdings sold 700,000 shares at an average of $59.70 on 3 November to 4 November 2026 and 200,000 shares at an average of $58.22 on 5 November to 6 November 2026. SEC Form 4 filings of 5 November 2026 and 9 November 2026 · as of
- Chief Revenue Officer Christopher Riedy sold 12,259 Class A shares at $60.00 on 5 November 2026; Chief Technology Officer Luke Swanson sold 53,462 shares at an average of $57.30 on 2 November to 3 November 2026 under a Rule 10b5-1 plan. SEC Form 4 filings of 4 November 2026 and 9 November 2026 · as of
- Post-report targets: Needham $65 (Buy), Citigroup $60 (Neutral), Goldman Sachs $58 (upgraded to Neutral from Sell), Evercore ISI $58 (In-Line), Wells Fargo $49 (Equal-Weight), BofA Securities $26. Benzinga and Fiscal.ai analyst headlines · as of
- Ibotta repurchased 395,364 Class A shares for about $14.5 million in Q3 2026 and had $52.9 million left under its $400.0 million authorization; cash was $149.9 million. Ibotta Q3 2026 Form 10-Q · as of
Sources
- SEC EDGAR ·
- SEC EDGAR
- Ibotta, Inc. - Form 8-K - FY2026 · sec.gov ·
- Ibotta, Inc. - Form 10-Q - FY2026 · sec.gov
- MarketBeat ·
- Evercore ISI raises Ibotta stock price target to $58 on Q3 beat · investing.com
- Ibotta upgraded by Goldman with a new price target · quantisnow.com
- Ibotta To Announce Fourth Quarter 2025 Financial Results on February 25, 2026 · investors.ibotta.com
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