COIN · Coinbase Global
Conviction · Low · more likely to lag the S&P 500 over the next three months
Wrong if: a daily close above $160.59
Note written ·
Price against the kill line
20.5% clear of its kill line on the 13 November 2026 close.
How to read this
This note expects the shares to lag the market, so its kill line sits above the price: a close above the red mark would prove the view wrong. Prices run from low on the left to high on the right. The dot is where the stock closed on 13 November 2026, left of the mark while it is below the line; a dot right of the mark has closed through it.
The scale is stretched near the line, so close calls are easy to see. More than 8% from the line, the stock reads well clear, with a hollow dot to show the figure is off the drawn scale.
The kill line is the research note's own test. The portfolio sells on business facts, not on a price. How the portfolio decides
Three months against the kill line
Daily closes, to . Red: the kill line, a daily close above $160.59, on record since 11 November 2026. The shares are down 15.2% since the close; the S&P 500 is down 2.1% over the same sessions. Figures in the note can cover a different window.
Kill line
A daily close above $160.59, the 29 October 2026 close on the day of the third-quarter results, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. Fourth-quarter transaction revenue at or above the $685 million consensus would also prove this call wrong.
Research onlyNot in the portfolio.
Catalyst
Key figures from the filings · Financials
Quarter to 30 September 2026, filed 29 October 2026; valuation at the 13 November 2026 close
- Revenue, latest quarter ($M)
- 1,216
- Revenue, change on a year (%)
- −35.0
- Operating margin (%)
- 5.1
- Net cash, cash less debt ($M)
- 2,172
- Enterprise value to sales (×)
- 6.1
- Enterprise value to operating income (×)
- 172.5
All filed numbers
What Coinbase Global reports to the SEC in its quarterly and annual filings. Each group states its period and filing date once; a figure dated otherwise says so. Built from the filings known on .
| Quarter to | Revenue ($M) | On a year (%) | Operating margin (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| first filed | 1,216 | −35.0 | 5.1 |
| first filed | 1,220 | −18.5 | −9.3 |
| first filed | 1,413 | −30.5 | −1.5 |
| first filed | 1,781 | −21.6 | 15.4 |
| first filed | 1,869 | +55.1 | 25.7 |
| first filed | 1,497 | +3.3 | −1.6 |
| Pre-tax income ($M) | 824 |
| Net income ($M) four quarters: −702 | 719 |
| Diluted shares, change on a year (%) against the quarter to 30 September 2025 | −1.4 |
| Operating cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Capital spending ($M) | Not reported |
| Free cash flow ($M) | Not available |
| Cash and short-term investments ($M) | 8,821 |
| Debt ($M) long-term debt plus short-term borrowings | 6,649 |
| Net cash, cash less debt ($M) | 2,172 |
| Deferred revenue ($M) | Not reported |
| Backlog, orders not yet delivered ($M) | Not reported |
| Receivables ($M) | 270 |
| Inventory ($M) | Not reported |
| Shareholders' equity ($M) | 13,940 |
| Market value ($M) | 36,759 |
| Enterprise value, market value plus net debt ($M) | 34,587 |
| Enterprise value to sales (×) | 6.1 |
| Enterprise value to operating income (×) | 172.5 |
| Price to earnings (×) | Not meaningful |
| Price to book value (×) | 2.6 |
| Free-cash-flow yield (%) | Not available |
Short interest (FINRA, settled 15 October 2026, published 26 October 2026): 8.3% of shares outstanding sold short, 2.9 days of average trading to cover, −2.5% since the previous report.
| Window | Bought | Sold |
|---|---|---|
| 90 daysfrom | $0 | $18.0M |
| 12 monthsfrom | $0 | $167.1M |
The thesis
Coinbase Global shares look more likely to lag the S&P 500 than lead it over the next three months. Trading revenue is shrinking faster than the company's new licenses and partnerships can add income. The fourth-quarter report, expected about mid-February 2027, settles whether services revenue can carry the company while trading stays weak.
The regulatory news since early November has been good. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) gave final approval to Coinbase's national trust charter, which the company announced on 9 November 2026 (American Banker). PNC Bank began accepting USDC payments for corporate clients through Coinbase the same day (Benzinga). The shares still closed at $132.13 on 10 November 2026, their lowest close of the past year. Buyers are pricing the shrinking trading revenue, and the new licenses have not changed that.
The rating is Low because third-quarter transaction revenue fell 44% from a year earlier, Morgan Stanley cut the shares to Underweight on 2 November 2026, and a federal appeals court left state gambling laws enforceable against the company's sports contracts. Fourth-quarter transaction revenue at or above the $685 million consensus would show the trading business recovering faster than this view expects.
Bullish and bearish views on Coinbase Global, Inc.
The bull case on Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN), in brief: the federal trust charter is final. The bear case: Trading revenue keeps shrinking.
Bull case
- The federal trust charter is final. American Banker reported on 9 November 2026 that the OCC granted final approval, moving custody under one federal framework after nearly a decade on state licenses. Coinbase plans to add stablecoin issuance, white-label stablecoins and payments under the charter.
- A large bank now routes USDC through Coinbase. PNC Bank launched USDC payment acceptance for corporate and institutional clients on 9 November 2026, with one-to-one conversion into U.S. dollars through Coinbase (Benzinga).
- Services revenue held up. Subscription-and-services revenue was $570.2 million in the third quarter, inside the $500–580 million guide (Coinbase Q3 2026 earnings deck, 29 October 2026). Average USDC held in Coinbase products hit a record $22 billion.
- Binance's hack did not spread. Binance restarted withdrawals on 1 November 2026 after the roughly $6.3 billion theft (Al Jazeera), and said it had covered 95% of the stolen assets (South China Morning Post). Coinbase's share of crypto trading volume had risen to 10.7% in the third quarter (Q3 2026 earnings deck).
- Costs are falling and cash is ample. Coinbase cut its 2026 adjusted expense guide to $4.15–4.30 billion from $4.20–4.45 billion (Benzinga, 29 October 2026). It held $8.6 billion of cash and equivalents at 30 September 2026.
- Several brokers stay positive. Fiscal.ai company news reported on 10 November 2026 that Keefe, Bruyette & Woods raised its target to $237 from $221. Freedom Broker kept Buy on 7 November 2026 with a $175 target (Benzinga).
Bear case
- Trading revenue keeps shrinking. Transaction revenue was $590.2 million in the third quarter, down 44% from a year earlier (Yahoo Finance, 29 October 2026). October transaction revenue through the 25th was about $165 million (Q3 2026 earnings deck), and Morgan Stanley estimates about $607 million for the quarter against a $685 million consensus (CryptoBriefing, 2 November 2026).
- Morgan Stanley turned negative after the report. Analyst Michael Cyprys cut the shares to Underweight on 2 November 2026 with a $120 target, down from $258. He cut 2027 revenue estimates by 28% and 2027 adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) by 47% (CryptoBriefing).
- Courts have hurt the prediction-market line. The Second Circuit denied Coinbase and Kalshi an injunction against New York and Connecticut enforcing state gambling laws on their sports event contracts (fiscal.ai company news, 4 November 2026). Coinbase put annualized prediction-market revenue above $200 million on 29 October 2026 (Benzinga).
- Reported profit comes from crypto marks. GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) net income of $718.7 million included a $715.0 million gain on crypto held for investment. Operating income was $61.7 million, against $480.5 million a year earlier (Benzinga, 29 October 2026).
- The charter faces a court challenge. American Banker reported on 9 November 2026 that a banking-industry lawsuit challenges the OCC's charter process. A court could tighten or reverse it, and the litigation may take years.
- Crypto market rules may be delayed. Benzinga reported on 6 November 2026 that Democrats may rewrite the CLARITY Act to expand Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) oversight and curb the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which could delay the federal market-structure law.
Price setup
The shares closed at $136.27 on 11 November 2026, after a closing low of $132.13 on 10 November 2026, the lowest close of the past 52 weeks. They are down 11.5% over three months from $153.90 on 13 August 2026. The last close is 57.0% below the 52-week intraday high of $317.09 set on 11 November 2025.
The sharpest recent drop came between the $151.50 close on 4 November 2026 and the $136.82 close on 5 November 2026. The shares have not recovered that loss. They closed at $136.10 on 9 November 2026, the day the charter approval was announced, and lower the next session.
Both trend lines sit well above the price. The 50-day moving average is $172.57 and the 200-day moving average is $174.80, as of the 11 November 2026 close. The 50-day sits under the 200-day, so the recent trend is weaker than the longer one.
Analyst targets span a wide range. Morgan Stanley and Barclays are at $120, Mizuho at $145 and JPMorgan at $187 (Benzinga and CryptoBriefing, 30 October to 3 November 2026). Freedom Broker is at $175 (7 November 2026), Keefe, Bruyette & Woods at $237 (10 November 2026) and Canaccord Genuity at $275. LSEG counted 26 of 41 analysts at buy or strong buy on 2 November 2026 (CryptoBriefing), so most of the remaining optimism sits with the sell side.
Catalysts ahead
- 9 December 2026: Federal Reserve rate decision. Two officials dissented in favor of a hike on 28 October 2026. A hike would weigh on crypto prices, while cuts would reduce Coinbase's stablecoin reserve income.
- ~12 February 2027 (est.): Coinbase fourth-quarter 2026 results. Tests subscription-and-services revenue against the $550-630 million guide and shows whether transaction revenue reaches the $685 million consensus or Morgan Stanley's lower estimate of about $607 million.
What would change the view
A daily close above $160.59, the 29 October 2026 close on the day of the third-quarter results, which would show the shares leading the S&P 500. Fourth-quarter transaction revenue at or above the $685 million consensus would also prove this call wrong.
What it trades with
The shares usually amplify crypto moves, with a five-year beta of 3.36. They fell with Robinhood and Gemini after the Binance hack on 30 October 2026, and rose with Riot and Strategy on 3 November 2026 (Benzinga).
Stablecoin income ties the company to Circle and to USDC balances; Circle, Ripple and BitGo already hold federal trust charters (Benzinga, 9 November 2026). The prediction-market and derivatives lines link Coinbase to Kalshi and Kraken. The three filed in support of the CFTC in the lawsuit over single-stock perpetual futures on 10 November 2026 (Benzinga). The CFTC has also sued Connecticut and two other states over federal authority on event contracts (State AG Report, 3 September 2026).
The evidence, claim by claim (8)
- Third-quarter 2026 total revenue was $1,215.6 million, down 35% year over year; transaction revenue was $590.2 million and subscription-and-services revenue $570.2 million. Coinbase Q3 2026 earnings deck (Form 8-K) · as of
- Fourth-quarter 2026 subscription-and-services revenue is guided to $550-630 million; transaction revenue was about $165 million through 25 October. Coinbase Q3 2026 earnings deck (Form 8-K) · as of
- GAAP net income of $718.7 million included a $715.0 million gain on crypto assets held for investment; operating income was $61.7 million versus $480.5 million a year earlier. Benzinga, Coinbase Q3 2026 results · as of
- Morgan Stanley cut Coinbase to Underweight from Equal Weight and its price target to $120 from $258, estimating fourth-quarter transaction revenue of about $607 million against a $685 million consensus. CryptoBriefing · as of
- The Second Circuit denied Coinbase and Kalshi an injunction to prevent New York and Connecticut from enforcing state gambling laws against their sports event contracts. fiscal.ai company news · as of
- The OCC gave Coinbase final approval to operate under a national trust charter; a banking-industry lawsuit challenges the OCC's charter process. American Banker · as of
- PNC Bank launched USDC payment acceptance for corporate and institutional clients, with one-to-one conversion into U.S. dollars through Coinbase. Benzinga · as of
- Keefe, Bruyette & Woods raised its Coinbase price target to $237 from $221. fiscal.ai company news · as of
Sources
- Coinbase gets final OCC charter approval · americanbanker.com ·
- Morgan Stanley cuts Coinbase price target to $120, sees 16% downside · cryptobriefing.com ·
- Binance restarts withdrawals after $6.3bn heist · aljazeera.com
- Binance sees spike in withdrawals as exchange returns online after US$6.3 billion hack · scmp.com
- Federal Courts Now Disagree on Kalshi’s Sports Contracts. New Jersey Wants the Supreme Court to Settle the Fight · financemagnates.com
- stateagreport.com ·
Related · shared themes
HOOD
Robinhood Markets
Robinhood Markets' event contracts are growing while crypto volume fell 21% in October and stock and options trading stalled, so the shares…
MSTR
Strategy
Strategy Inc.'s common shares are more likely to lag the S&P 500: MSCI confirmed on 11 November 2026 that it will delete the stock at the…
ASST
Strive
Strive, Inc. funded about 43,000 bitcoin with 13% to 15% preferred stock, but weekly buying fell to 124 and 29 bitcoin after 30 October…
BMNR
BitMine Immersion Technologies
BitMine Immersion, the largest corporate ether holder, is likely to lag the S&P 500: it held 4.97% of ether supply against a stated 5% cap…